Economy:
The BLS reported earlier today that the economy added 850K jobs last month. The consensus forecast was at 706K. Employment Situation Summary The U-6 number fell to 9.8% from 10.2% in April. Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization Average hourly wages continued to surge, rising 10 cents per hour after increasing 33 cents per hour during the previous 2 months.
ADP National Employment Report | June 2021 (+692K); Private payrolls rise 692,000 in June, easily topping expectations (555K consensus estimate)
El-Erian says the Fed is behind on inflation and risks another recession if it is forced to catch up
Delta: WHO urges fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks as variant spreads
Lumber prices dive more than 40% in June, the biggest monthly drop on record (6/30/21)
U.S weekly jobless claims total hits new pandemic-era low of 364,000
+++
Markets and Market Commentary:
Chip shortage causes Ford to cut vehicle production at several plants
10 Undervalued Wide-Moat Stocks | Morningstar My brain is not able to process those stocks as being undervalued.
+++
Trump Organization and its CFO indicted by Manhattan grand jury; Trump Org. charged with 15-year "scheme to defraud" on taxes; Trump Organization charged with conspiracy, tax fraud and falsifying business records - POLITICO Trumpsters will view the criminal indictments as political retribution by NY liberals, an opinion that could only be reached without reviewing the factual "allegations" made in the indictment IMO. Read the Trump Organization Indictment - The New York Times; PDF version But, of course, facts, truth and evidence are so passé and irrelevant in Trump's America.
Total Scores/Overall Rankings | C-SPAN Survey on Presidents 2021 | C-SPAN.org The historians who were polled ranked Demagogue Don at #41, ahead of Andrew Johnson, James Buchanan and Franklin Pierce. While I agree with the rankings for Buchanan and Andrew Johnson from Tennessee, though a good argument could be made for Donald being in last place, I would at a minimum place Pierce ahead of Trump, moving Don the Authoritarian, the most powerful enemy of America's democracy in our history, down to # 42. Everyone needs to remember for as long as they live that 81% of Republicans believe Donald is honest and almost as many view him as a role model for their children. That needs to sink in deep and recalled multiple times each day. (Question 11: 81% of Republicans believe Trump is honest-National (US) Poll - June 18, 2020); Washington Post counts 30,573 false or misleading claims in four years by Trump | TheHill; Tracking all of President Trump’s false or misleading claims - Washington Post. And if Donald had made 100K false claims in four years or even 1 million, that would not change their opinion about his honesty. And that is fertile ground for a lying, authoritarian, sociopathic demagogue to exploit.
Senator Ron Johnson (R-WIS) apparently wants more people to die from Covid vaccinations. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson Under Fire for Holding Event on Adverse Reactions to COVID Vaccines; Ron Johnson promotes adverse reactions to COVID vaccines Why else would he be trying to scare people? Ron Johnson's anti-science crusade harms Wisconsin vaccination drive; Milwaukee newspaper blasts Ron Johnson as 'irresponsible representative of Wisconsin citizens' | TheHill
The Arizona audit ties to the conspiracy theory film debuting this week
Tucker Carlson Ratchets Up the “White Rage” on Fox News | Vanity Fair It is sad that anyone listens to this clown.
General Milley, critical race theory and why the GOP's 'woke' military concerns miss the mark; Opinion | What Underlies the G.O.P. Commitment to Ignorance? - The New York Times (Paul Krugman opinion article refers to Tucker Carlson, who called General Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, "stupid" and a "pig" for saying that those in uniform must be "open-minded and widely read".); Tucker Carlson calls America's top general a stupid pig - YouTube
NSA Puts Out a Statement Responding to Tucker Carlson: He ‘Has Never Been an Intelligence Target’; Trumpers go spy-crazy: Now Seb Gorka claims that the NSA spied on him and Steve Bannon in White House Facts, of course, do not matter to the Trumpsters or to the Fake News networks who routinely give them free reign to spew their reality creations. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) Wants Devin Nunes (R-CA) to Investigate Tucker Carlson's Claim
Maybe McCarthy ought to investigate another Republican claim that Jewish space lasers were responsible for wildfires in California as well as the Republican claim that the CIA conspired with an Italian company to delete votes for Trump via satellite. GOP Congresswoman Blamed Wildfires on Jewish Space Laser McCarthy has identified the right guy in the House to investigate these kind of claims.
The GOP's leader in the House, Kevin McCarthy, threatened to take away committee assignments for any Republican who participates in a bipartisan investigation of the 1/6 Trumpster attack on the nation's Capitol. House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy threatens Republicans over Jan. 6 Capitol riot investigation
Fox News agrees to $1 million fine as part of a human rights investigation settlement
Mike Lindell Urges SCOTUS to 'Immediately' Reinstate Trump and 'Get Rid of Communists'; The MyPillow Guy-Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse-The Daily Show- YouTube (Instructive interview with a Trumpster); Mike Lindell’s ‘fraud’ allegations are even more ridiculous than you might think - The Washington Post; Mike Lindell has become the platonic ideal of a Trump supporter - The Washington Post
Why Does the QAnon Conspiracy Still Thrive? | Time There is no known cure for stupidity.
Wisconsin G.O.P. Wrestles With Just How Much to Indulge Trump-The New York Times The Wisconsin GOP is totally controlled by, and subservient to Donald.
Last week, Donald stated that his Wisconsin republican sycophants were not doing enough to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, and accused them of covering up "election corruption".
The Republicans had been doing everything imaginable to cast doubt on the certified election results, but that was not enough in Trump's America.
Trump's accusation only produced more servile wallowing from Wisconsin Republican leaders. Wisconsin's Republican State Senate President, Chris Kapenga, replied in what one commentator called "North Korean-style levels of Dear Leader obsequiousness." Opinion | Dear Leader: A Near-Perfect Letter From a Trump Sycophant, Annotated-The New York Times
ADM sold Sonny Perdue South Carolina land worth millions for $250,000 in 2017-Washington Post The land was sold to Purdue shortly before he became Don the Con's Secretary of Agriculture. ADM claims all was above board and kosher.
'Trump Train' drivers that almost ran Biden bus off the road sued under the Ku Klux Klan Act of 1871; Law being used to target Trump, Giuliani, Capitol mob for insurrection- The Washington Post
QAnon Couple Who Appeared in HBO Documentary Arrested Over Capitol Attack
Man Hoping to Unseat Liz Cheney Says He Pretended to Support QAnon to Discredit Media
Congress Must Fix Electoral Count Act to Stop the Next Coup
Some fear Republicans’ post-Trump actions are eroding democracy | PBS NewsHour; Donald Trump rally in Ohio Saturday a return to campaign-style events; While undermining democracy, Trump falsely claims he's saving it
4 in 5 Trump voters are dissatisfied with how democracy is going-The Washington Post Their commitment to democracy and institutions necessary for a properly functioning democracy are either superficial or non-existent IMO. (One out of five stated that democracy was not the best form of government).
Canada sets record temperature of almost 116 degrees amid heat wave, forecasts of even hotter weather - The Washington Post Shortly before they are burned to a crisp, there conceivably could be some Republicans who utter a faint, barely audible sound, so as not to be heard by the like minded, that maybe there was something to global warming after all.
6.22.21-SUDC Report on Cyber Ninjas Arizona Ballot Review-FINAL.pdf The Republicans' brazenly bogus and partisan "audit" of Maricopa County 2020 presidential ballots is likely to continue for at least two more weeks. Months behind schedule, Arizona election auditors extend lease again This asinine endeavor has no purpose other than to undermine the democratic process.
Behind Biden’s 2020 Victory | Pew Research Center
Vanderbilt AD says Mississippi State fans yelled racial slurs at players’ parents - Sports Illustrated It was a lot worse when Perry Wallace started to play on Vanderbilt's basketball team in 1967. Perry Wallace, a pioneer who integrated SEC basketball, has died-Vanderbilt University
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1. Small Ball:
A. Pared FTS-Sold 5 at $46.25:
Quote: Fortis Inc.- USD Priced Shares
Fortis website
FTS SEC Filings-SEC forms for a foreign company
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.K. Added to FTS-Bought 5 at $39.25; 5 at $38.71 (3/13/21 Post); Item # 3.A. Started FTS-Bought 5 at $40.25 (1/30/21 Post)
2020 Annual Report (management discussion)
Profit Snapshot: +$30.88
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.505 per share, last raised from C$.445 per share effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment. Share Information
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): Fortis Inc. Reports Strong First Quarter 2021 Results
E.P.S. at C$.76, adjusted to C$.77, up from an adjusted C$.68 in the 2020 first quarter
Revenues: C$2.539B, up from C$2.391 Y-O-Y
B. Bought 50 AFIN at $9; 10 $8.3-Fidelity Taxable:
This is a new name for me.
Quote: American Finance Trust, Inc. Cl A (AFIN)
"American Finance Trust, Inc. (the “Company”), is an externally managed real estate investment trust for U.S. Federal income tax purposes (“REIT”) focusing on acquiring and managing a diversified portfolio of primarily service-oriented and traditional retail and distribution-related commercial real estate properties located primarily in the United States. The Company’s assets consist primarily of freestanding single-tenant properties that are net leased to “investment grade” and other creditworthy tenants and a portfolio of multi-tenant retail properties consisting primarily of power centers and lifestyle centers. The Company intends to focus its future acquisitions primarily on net leased, single-tenant service retail properties, defined as properties leased to tenants in the retail banking, restaurant, grocery, pharmacy, gas, convenience, fitness, and auto services sectors. As of March 31, 2021, the Company owned
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/21 (summary of debt, mostly mortgages on owned real estate, starts at page 18)
2020 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 4 and ends on page 29)
Average Cost per share this account: $8.88 (60 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.2125 per share ($.85 annually) AFIN was paying a monthly distribution prior to 2021.
American Finance Trust Announces Common Stock Dividend for Third Quarter 2021
Dividend History 2019 to Date:
Yield at $8.88 = 9.57%
Next Ex-Dividend Date: 7/9/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21):
AFFO per share = $.24
Properties 94.6% leased
8.7 year average remaining lease term
Net Income to FFO to AFFO Calculations:
C. Bought 10 AFIN in Schwab Taxable at $8.4; 10 at $8.11:
See Item # 1.B. above
AC this account: $8.26
Yield at AC = 10.29%
D. Sold 9 KR at $39.01:
Profit Snapshot: $65.6 (6/18/21 sale only)
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 5/22/21):
Far too many adjustments for my taste.
See Item 1.D. Above.
Profit Snapshot: +$164.46
I no longer have a position in KR. My consider-to-buy range is currently between $28 and $32.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Eliminated KR in Schwab Account-Sold 20 at $38.65 (2/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $137.43); Item # 2.F. Sold 2 KR at $38.65 (5/23/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.82)
KR Realized Gains to Date: $670.47 ($440.41 in prior trades)
I have been more active in Kroger's senior unsecured bonds, but all of them have matured and current yields are unattractive.
F. Pared EXG in Schwab Taxable-Sold 10 at $10.31:
Quote: Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Overview- A Buy-Write CEF
Sponsor's Website: Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund (EXG) | Eaton Vance
Portfolio as of 1/31/21-SEC Filing
Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund (Annual Report for the period ending 10/31/20)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.B. Added 10 EXG at (11/28/20 Post); Item # 1.P. Added 20 EXG at $7.4(10/24/20 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 100 EXG at $7.42 (7/11/20 Post)
Position Before Pare this account only:
I have turned off dividend reinvestment. I eliminated with this pare all shares purchased with dividends.
Profit Snapshot: +$24.68
AC per share this account after pare: $7.04 ($7.04)
 |
| Snapshot at close on 6/14/21 after pare |
Dividend: Monthly at $.0616 per share ($.74 rounded annually)
Substantial ROC Support.
Return of Capital and CEFs - Fidelity; Return of Capital and CEFs: Part 3 - Fidelity
Yield at $7.04 = 10.5%
Data Date of 6/14/21 Trade:
Net Asset Value Per Share: $10.37
Closing Market Price: $10.27
Discount: - .96%
Average 5 Year Discount: 4.04%
Sourced: EXG-CEF Connect
The largest EXG realized gain to date was in 2013:
 |
| EXG 331 Shares +$414.31 |
G. Pared EXG in Fidelity Taxable-Sold All Fractional Shares Purchased with dividends at $10.28:
 |
| 1.188 Shares |
See Item # 1.C. Above.
Profit Snapshot: +$2.75
The market price closed at a premium to net asset value per share.
New AC per share: $6.9
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 6/16/21 after pare |
Yield at AC = 10.72%
H. Pared OFS in Fidelity Taxable-Sold Highest Cost 35 shares that could be sold profitably at $10.07:
Quote: OFS Capital Corp - a BDC
Website: Homepage - OFS Capital
Management: External
2020 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 27 and ends on page 59)
Financial Highlights 2012-2021:
 |
| Page 69 |
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.F. Bought 40 OFS with an Average Cost Per share of $4.18 (11/7/20 Post); Item # 2.L. Added 5 OFS at $3.97-Fidelity Taxable (11/28/20 Post); Item # 1.K. Added 3 OFS at $4.5 -Fidelity Taxable (8/8/20 Post); Item # 3.E. Added 5 OFS at $9.66; 5 at $9.2; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $6; 5 at $5.65; 2 at $3.7; 10 at $3.79 (4/11/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$12.44
New AC per share this account: $6.78 (134+ shares):
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share
Recent dividend history has been moving back up after being slashed from $.34 to $.17 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. OFS Capital Corporation (OFS) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at New AC of $6.78 = 12.98%
Net Asset Value Per Share History:
03/31/21: $11.96 10-Q at page 3
12/21/20: $11.85 10-K at page 69
6/30/20: $10.10
3/31/20: $ 9.71
12/31/19: $12.46
9/30/19: $12.74
6/30/19: $12.95 Page 2 10-Q
3/31/19 $13.04 10-Q
12/31/18 $13.10
6/30/18 $13.70
03/31/18 $13.67
12/31/17 $14.12
12/31/16 $14.82
12/31/15 $14.76
12/31/14 $14.24
12/31/13 $14.54
IPO Offering Price at $15 (November 2012) with proceeds after the underwriters' discount at $13.05 Final Prospectus Supplement
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share = $.19
Adjusted NII per share = $.23
The 4 cent adjustment is due to "duplicate interest" expense relating to the timing of a new bond offering and the retirement of a higher coupon vintage bond. I would agree with that adjustment:
"Interest expense for the three months ended March 31, 2021, increased $0.3 million compared to the three months ended December 31, 2020, primarily due to us paying interest on both the newly issued $125.0 million of unsecured notes in February and March 2021 and the $98.5 million of redeemed unsecured notes. After the 30-day notice period expired, we used a portion of the proceeds from the $125.0 million of unsecured notes to redeem $98.5 million of previously issued unsecured notes."
No new loans on nonaccrual
The weighted average yield on debt investments: 9.01%
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.M. Pared OFS in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 20 at $7.2 (12/25/20 Post); Item # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04 (11/30/19 Post); Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post)
OFS Trading Profits to Date: $217.55 ($205.44 in prior trades)
Most of the gain is unrealized with positions held in several accounts.
Goal: Any total return before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis in excess of the dividend payments.
I. Added to CLX-Bought $50 at $173.38:
Quote: Clorox Co.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Multiple Small Dollar Purchases of CLX (3/27/21 Post) I view the current stock price as rich, so I will go slow. Purchases of cleaning products have probably now returned to pre-pandemic levels. UBS started CLX as a sell last month.
Investment Category: Dividend Growth
CLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Brands | The Clorox Company Owning the Hidden Valley salad dressing line makes no sense to me.
Average Cost in this Account:
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.16 ($4.64 annually), last raised from $1.11 effective for the next dividend payment.
Yield at AC:
Next Ex-Dividend: 7/27/21
Last Earnings Report (Fiscal 3rd Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP earnings per share reflect a pre-tax non-cash impairment charge of $329 million (or $2.11 diluted EPS). "The impairment charge is the result of an adjustment to the carrying values of goodwill, trademarks and other assets in the Better Health Vitamins, Minerals and Supplements (VMS) business".
Adjusted E.P.S. = $1.62, a 14% Y-O-Y decrease
Net Sales = $1.781B
2021 Outlook:
J. Added to FCX-Bought 1 at $39.37; 1 at $37; 2 at $34.68:
Quote: Freeport-McMoRan Inc
FCX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Copper Prices - 45 Year Historical Chart-MacroTrends
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Bought 2 FCX at $41.33; 1 at $40.29 (6/12/21 Post) I noted in that post that I expected copper prices to come back down.
I discussed the last earnings report in that post.
Average Cost Per Share: $38.38 (7 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.075 per share Freeport-McMoRan Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend on Common Stock
Yield: Viewed as immaterial
K. Bought 10 CIZN at $18.99; 5 at $18.3; 5 at $18.14:
3 Year Financial History (page 7):
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96)
10 shares bought just before the ex-dividend date and 5 shares on that day.
Yield at $18.99 = 5.06%
Last Ex-Dividend: 6/17/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/21): SEC Filed Press Release and 10-Q
E.P.S. = $.34
Net Income: $1.897M
NIM = 2.32%, hurt by early prepayments on mortgages.
ROE = 6.45%
CIZN.O - Citizens Holding Company Key Metrics | Reuters
Capital Ratios:
 |
| Page 44, 10-Q |
Maximum Position: 50 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price paid in the chain.
Goal: Dividend harvest and a >2% profit on the shares.
My overall judgment is that CIZN is not a quality regional bank, and that is established by its earnings history and price chart. I will preferably avoid holding the shares for more than a year. I have successfully traded the shares in the past, so I decided to try again. A successful trade is defined as collecting 4 dividends and then selling the shares at >$20. I am becoming less choosy with new dividend paying stock purchases given the inflow of bond redemption proceeds with nowhere to go into new bond purchases.
CIZN Realized Gains to Date: $419.77
L. Added to VRTX-Bought $50 at $189.72; $20 at $188.21; $30 at $187.57:
Quote: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.
VRTX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Pipeline | Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.L. Multiple Small Dollar Buys (6/12/21 Post; Item # 1.A. Bought 1 VRTX at $213.65; $50 at $211.32; $50 at $201.33 (4/30/21 Post)(discussed last earnings reports in that post, Vertex Reports First-Quarter 2021 Financial Results)
I have nothing further to add to those recent discussions.
Average Cost per share in this account = $203.91 (3+ shares)
M. Bought 10 VKTX at $5.88:
Recent News-June 2021: Viking Therapeutics Announces Results from Phase 1 Clinical Trial of Novel Oral Thyroid Receptor Beta Agonist VK0214 (6/17/21); Viking Therapeutics Announces Initiation of Phase 1b Clinical Trial of VK0214 in Patients with X-ALD (6/24/21)
Last Financial Report (Q/E 3/31/21): Viking Therapeutics Reports First Quarter 2021 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update
Cash and short term investments as of 3/31/21 = $241.7M
Net loss of $14M or $.19 per share.
N. Added to HTBK-Bought 10 at $11.1:
Quote: Heritage Commerce Corp.
I discussed this small bank holding company in my last post. Item # 1.L. Bought 10 HTBK at $11.52 (6/25/21 Post)
New Average Cost per share = $11.31 (20 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 6/28/21 |
I will probably continue averaging down in ten share lots until I hit 50 shares and then decide whether or not to take the position up to 100 shares.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.13 per share
Yield at $11.31 = 4.6%
O. CFG's Redemption of its 2.375% SU bonds:
Issuer: Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG); CFG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch; CFG SEC Filings
The prospectus allowed the issuer to redeem within 1 month prior to maturity at par plus accrued and unpaid interest. Prospectus at p. S-2
S & P Rating: BBB+
Interest on 4 bonds was paid semiannually at $47.5 or about $7.92 per month. The interest paid by the issuer upon redemption was for five months and totalled $39.58.
Profit Snapshot: $44.24
I still only a few common shares. Dividend History-Citizens Bank (Quarterly at $.39 per share)
CFG has 2 non-cumulative equity preferred stocks that are currently priced over their $25 par values. Citizens Financial Group Inc. Series D Preferred Stock-Final Prospectus Supplement; Citizens Financial Group Inc. Series E Preferred Stock-Final Prospectus Supplement. The equity preferred stocks are rated BB+ by S & P, a larger than normal spread to the senior unsecured debt of BBB+. Credit Ratings – Citizens Bank; Citizens Bank Credit Ratings-Fitch
CFG has several $1K par value senior unsecured bonds that can be traded, but I have no interest in them due to their currently low yields. (e.g. FINRA Bond Detail CFG 2.85% SU Maturing in 2026 trading near a YTM of 1.42%). The breakeven inflation rate for the 5 year TIP closed yesterday at 2.49%. If the Bond Ghouls are proven correct in predicting a 2.49% average annual inflation over the next 5 years, the 2026 CFG bond with its 1.42% would produce an annual average real rate of return, before taxes, of -1.07%.
P. Issuer Redemption GOODM-7% Cumulative Equity Preferred:
Item # 1.C. Bought 10 GOODM at $20; 5 at $19 (4/4/20 Post)
I still own the common shares. Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD); GOOD SEC Filings
I last discussed the common stock here: Item # 3. F. (6/14/21 Post)(average cost Fidelity taxable at $13.19; yield at 11.05%; 58 shares). I have been selling my highest cost shares and have eliminated all shares purchased with dividends.
2. Cash Flow into Fidelity Taxable 6/30-7/2 (1 of 5 taxable accounts that I own):
The cash flow snapshots highlight my diverse holdings and my current inch deep, mile wide approach to risk management. In the following snapshots, I reinvested the dividend only in the utility holding company PPL and KMB. I did not realize that the reinvestment option for KMB was turned on and have now turned it off. Several of the securities are owned in multiple accounts.
The only corporate bonds included in the snapshots are two 3.1% First Mortgage bonds issued by Entergy Mississippi that matures on 7/1/23 and 1 Hercules 6.5%, one of the leftovers from my junk bond basket strategy implemented mostly in 2011 and now in runoff.
FINRA Page 2029 Hercules 6.5% Junior Bond; Item # 2 Bought 1 Hercules 6.5% Junior Bond at 86 (6/24/11 Post)(current yield at total cost = 7.488%)
FINRA Page 2023 Entergy Mississippi 3.1% First Mortgage (currently trading near a .45% YTM). I discussed that bond here: Item # 3.A. Bought 3 Entergy Mississippi 3.15% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 7/1/23 at a TC of 99.111 (2/13/19 Post) That purchase brought me up to 6 bonds held in two of my accounts. I later sold 1 at 102+. Item # 3.A. (7/20/19 Post)
I received $250 in tax exempt interest from 3 separate $5K Tennessee municipal bond positions. (annual average tax free current yield of 3.33+%)
The snapshots highlight some reliance on CEFs to generate income (AIO, AOD, BXMX, ERC, EXG, FAX, GDO, GLQ, IGR, JDD, JQC, JRI, KIO, SWZ, MIN, THQ). Of those CEFs, all pay monthly dividends except for BXMX, JDD, and SWZ who pay quarterly.
There is also some reliance on BDCs to generate cash flow. The following stocks shown in the snapshots are BDCs: ARCC, FSK, NMFC, OFS, PFLT, PNNT, SLRC, SUNS, TCPC and TPVG.
I am extremely proactive in managing the inherent risks in BDC stocks.
I have been using the small ball trading strategy in managing CEF risks which I would summarize simply as selling the rips (particularly shares bought with dividends) and buying the dips. All recent transactions have been to sell.
3. Tennessee Municipal Bond Interest Paid 7/1 into Schwab Taxable:
All of these positions are 5 bond lots.
Total = $538.76
I also received $5K in an issuer early redemption, along with a $75 tax free interest payment included in the previous snapshots.
This bond was bought at slightly less than par value (11/2019), with the $10 commission taking the cost basis up to 100.157.
I am unaware of any municipal bonds that have make-whole provisions. The call protection is generally 10 years from the original issuance date, with the issuer having the option to redeem at par value thereafter.
For the bonds included in the interest payment snapshots that are still owned, the unrealzied gain using Schwab's third party pricing is at $1,626.74:
I have not tried to sell any of my municipal bonds.
The Tennessee Housing bonds are rated AA+ and Aa1:
I will go down to a AA or AA2 when buying a 10 municipal bond lot.
This one is rated AA+:
This 10 bond lot is rated AA+ by S & P and one notch lower at Aa2 by Moody's.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
The lumber article got my attention the most.
ReplyDelete- I didn't know there was a bubble or rising prices in lumber.
- I didn't know it burst.
Article does a good job of wandering through various angles.
- So the housing bubble might start slowing down here...
- Also it points out first that inflation issues may even out and dissipate as market and production adjust to people's shifts in demand and
- 2nd that prices are still high enough that even with the burst...there is inflation.
-----
On a read through, you are still able to find stocks to buy (in small amounts).
Market is up again so far today.
VIX is under 15. See where it closes. But if it starts moving under 15 even with a later spike, I'm increasing bets that market's headed to stable VIX mode.
----
Gene editing stocks are down so far today. Not much compared to how big a climb. But maybe I should buy here. My tendency is to wait another couple days for the excitement to wear off.
SPCE is up a lot. I was thinking of looking at it for a lottery ticket type buy. Market got there already.
Meanwhile IWM is down today...
DeleteLand: I bought 2 shares of an ETF that I came across yesterday, which is interesting one in the small cap sector.
DeletePacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF (CALF)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/calf?mod=over_search
That purchase is my way now of remembering the ETF for future reference. The 1 year total return through yesterday was 99.59%, so my enthusiasm for a new purchase was restrained.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/bats/calf/performance
The IWM return over the same 1 year period was 64.86.
The most interesting factoid about CALF is that it triggered a brain malfunction yesterday, or perhaps a divine intervention of some sort.
Thinking that I was buying 2 shares, I entered the wrong symbol apparently and bought 2 shares of CET.
I last discussed CET, a stock CEF, after purchasing 5 at $32.03 in my Fidelity taxable account.
Item # 1.L. Restarted CET-Bought 5 at $32.03:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/01/akba-at-cc-cet-bmy-dpg-eaf-fcbp-gam.html
After receiving an email confirmation from Schwab that I bought 2 CET yesterday at $42.07, I discovered there were already 5 shares in that account bought at $31.94 bringing my total there to 7 shares.
I thought cash cow would be a good div stream from smaller cap. Turns out it's "high free cash flow yields"
DeleteI don't know what's being yielded?
That is a nice set of stocks. Very nice for the next down turn. A way to get variety and small caps with less of the "junk."
But has to be bought for market and economic rallying. Actually a lot of those are probably hurting here. Will gain in after 3rd or 4th quarter earnings, shows people going back to shopping in smaller stores for non-essentials.
I don't see anything exciting about CET. Div at .95% may be better than a savings account... but with principle risk. That is a lovely parabolic rise. So it has been exciting for someone. Including your shares that've been hiding.
Accidental buys that work out... that's a nice way to get a reminder that they're there.
LAND: This article explains the importance of free cash flow yield:
Deletehttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/freecashflowyield.asp
The .95% CET dividend yield is probably just based on the ordinary dividend payments.
As with other CEFs, that is not an accurate yield calculation since it does not include capital gains dividends.
http://www.centralsecurities.com/dividends.cfm
In 2020, CET paid out $1.7 per share in dividends. At last Friday's closing price of $42.16, that rate would be a 4.03% yield.
CET tends to hold stocks for an extended period, generally far longer than other CEFs. So capital gain harvesting is a bit spotty.
See list of the top 10 holdings:
http://www.centralsecurities.com/largestHoldings.cfm
The largest holding is a private company Plymouth Rock, valued at $241.6M as of 3/31/21 with a cost basis at $700K.
CET will harvest profits occasionally by selling shares back to the company. Last year, CET received $14,163,111 in dividends from Plymouth Rock which varies from year to year.
See page 18, note 5 Annual Report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18748/000138713121002153/cet-ncsr_123120.htm
The process of valuing this stock is explained in note 2.
The second largest holding Coherent is in the process of being acquired by IIVI which I own.
https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2021/03/25/2199302/11543/en/II-VI-Incorporated-to-Acquire-Coherent-Creating-Global-Leader-in-Photonic-Solutions-Compound-Semiconductors-and-Laser-Technology-and-Systems.html
I'm still not spotting how lots of cash flow leads to distributions and maybe it's just the .95%...
DeleteWhat I thought positive for CALF is it means strong companies, that will withstand recessions, so will have good price increases after downturns.
---
CET has capgain distributions. I hadn't thought of those.
I assume they're from sale of stocks held by the CET.
Plymouth Rock is a private company - I had wondered why I never heard of it. That's a plus, access to companies that aren't public. Also a drawback if they aren't well selected.
So it's basically like managed fund, that selects and manages in a way that has much better yield rates than a saving account, or many stocks.
Probably some leveraging going on it there. Those not excessively.
----
"Stockholders are generally given the option of receiving the year-end distribution either in additional share of stock or in cash"
Is the distribution taxable the same way whether received in cash or stock?
Interesting stuff.
LAND: CET is a stock CEF that will earn distributable net income through ordinary dividends paid by owned securities and capital gains derived from selling those securities. CET is one of the few CEFs that survived the Great Depression, a relatively small list that includes ADX and TY. The survivors were not leveraged. The leveraged ones did not survive with the first to collapse being leveraged CEFs that owned shares in other leveraged CEFs. This history can be found in John Kenneth Gailbraith's "The Great Crash 1929":
Deletehttps://www.amazon.com/Great-Crash-1929-Kenneth-Galbraith/dp/0547248164
CET is not leveraged now. There may have been some minor amount of debt a decade or so ago.
CET is unusual in that it owns shares in 1 private company.
If you own CET outside of a brokerage account, you can elect to receive the dividends in additional shares under its dividend reinvestment program.
The dividend is taxable no matter how it is paid. The tax characteristics of the dividend will depend on its sourcing (e.g. interest, short term capital or long term capital gains, qualified or non-qualified dividends) There is no ROC support for the CET dividends since those amounts are earned from dividends and capital gains.
For the most part, dividends paid into brokerage accounts can be reinvested but the owner is not receiving the shares directly from the company through a dividend reinvestment program. Almost all brokers do that for all stocks selected by their customer for dividend reinvestment. Fidelity has some stocks where it enrolls customers indirectly through another entity (Depository Trust) in a dividend reinvestment program offered by the stock issuer.
Instead, the broker is aggregating its customers dividends and using the funds to buy shares in the stock market. That can lead to wide variations in the reinvestment price depending on when the broker buys the shares. Some do not buy on the day the dividend is paid while others may buy either at the opening or close or during the day when the payment is made.
I didn't know that stuff about CEFs and the depression. That's a lot of longevity. Makes it more appealing...
DeleteGood to know I don't have to add, different taxes for difference receving methods, to my list. I tend not to do div reinvestment on stocks. Though I always did on mutual funds. Maybe I should rethink that - as soon as this market feels less than bizarre to me.
I found the news on the indictment of Weissburg unsure. Some reviewers thought it means they didn't have more and it wasn't going anywhere much. Others think it will destroy Trump org, and put some in jail, maybe even family. Everyone seems hesitant to say it will put Trump himself near or in jail, since his state of mind (knowledge of) can't be easily collaborated.
ReplyDeletePence's break from Trump about 1/6 and trump's loss, was in my mind the biggest news. It means the dam is breaking. Media hasn't played it up.
Land: If the statements contained in the indictment are proved, that would justify IMO a conviction for tax fraud.
DeleteThese charges may only be the first volley in an ongoing effort to charge Trump with tax fraud.
As for Pence, he had no constitutional authority to reject the certified state election results. If he had done so, it would likely have been the end of America's democracy. Elections would no longer matter since the party of the incumbent VP would always win. There remains a very large number of Republicans who believe that Pence should have given the election to Trump.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/560584-pence-faces-fierce-resistance-from-gops-pro-trump-base
Hopefully the tax fraud as listed, will be enough to convict and jail Trump. Or at the least that more layers are coming.
DeletePence rebuked Trump a couple of days ago. There were other recent splits from Trump of dedicated types, but this one in my mind is more telling. Pence actually said outloud on purpose, that currently trying to undo the election is wrong and dangerous to our country. Media barely mentioned this - I heard it once briefly.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/06/25/mike-pence-donald-trump-january-6-2020-election-results-newday-vpx.cnn
I see. Your hill article... has his latest... then adds about how upset the base is.
DeleteLand: The 10 treasury have barely moved so far in response to the better-than-expected employment report and the continued rapid wage growth. The yield is at 1.44%, far below the anticipated annual average inflation rate over the next ten years.
ReplyDeleteThere is an issue whether housing prices are already well into repeating what happened in 2002-2007 where abnormally low interest rates contributed to an unsustainable increase in home prices. I suspect that, in many communities around the country, the median income household can no longer afford a median price home.
The surge in commodity prices earlier this year, particularly in lumber and copper, contributed to the affordability issue.
I have thrown my net for potential stock buys far wider than normal. The money devoted to any particular purpose will not be meaningful.
I started to buy REGN but never got going before the price exited my consider to buy range. REGN has a good record in drug discovery which is a far better option for shareholders than acquiring drugs through overpriced acquisitions as Pfizer has done in the past.
With unaffordable housing, comes rent increases. And less pocket spending.
DeleteReminds me of when I looked at houses in 2007. There were a couple crummy neighborhoods with homes at 290k and up. Crummy - people piled broken down stuff in the open air car ports, and cheerily talked with me with plenty of missing front teeth.
REGN does look like a good company.
Saw an interesting observation on Biden's removal of Afghan troops. With covid hitting the Taliban, it's an exceptionally good time to back.
ReplyDeleteCoreLogic has redeemed its 7.55% SU bond that would have matured on 4/1/2028. The make whole payment was $389.69 per bond or $1,5558.76 for my 4 bonds in addition to the $1K par value per bond ($4K) and accrued and unpaid interest ($78.02)
ReplyDeleteThe last semi-annual payment was made on 4/1/21.
The make-whole payment is equivalent to about 5.16 years of interest payments that would have been made without the optional redemption. Each bond paid $75.5 in interest each year. So that is a serious penalty for taking this bond away from its owners. This bond is a holdover from my junk bond ladder strategy that was implemented mostly in 2011.
I did not receive the full nominal amount of all future interest payments. Both the principal amount and the future interest payments are discounted to present value using the treasury rate for a similar maturity. That discount rate is so low (7 YR T at 1.19%) that I received most of the remaining interest payable until maturity as a make whole payment attached to an optional issuer redemption.
+++
I was thinking this morning that Kevin McCarthy might need someone other than Devin Nunes (R-CA) to investigate the Republican claim that the ghost of Hugo Chavez infiltrated the Dominion voting machines and switched Trump votes to Biden. I question whether Nunes is qualified, particularly when Majorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) being an almost a perfect fit.
++
Land: The Taliban will end up controlling almost all of Afghanistan soon.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/24/asia/afghanistan-taliban-offensive-intl-cmd/index.html
The only way to avoid that outcome would be to maintain an overwhelming U.S. Military presence until the end of days. That end game has been clear for almost a decade now.
I vote for MTG. But I wouldn't change parties to vote for her. I'm tired of nuts. The surreal insanity is so very abnormal times. Never thought I'd live in a political time worse than McCarthyism. I wasn't alive then (1950s?) so maybe it was worse with the blackballing of good people & witch hunts. And they did have Jim Crow. But I'm not sure what's more surreal.
DeleteJewish people have started wearing space laser shirts. It's too funny a libel to let this one get ignored. Now I wasn't a Senfield show fan but this would be an episode I'd want to watch.
---
Unfortunately Rep Omar seems to be as or more antisemitic and keeps proving it. She's on foreign affairs committee. With her inability for basic diplomacy of not saying "Armenian genocide bad" and saying "Israel is terrorist like Hamas"... and then walking it back by saying her "fellow Democratic Jewish Reps aren't social justice partners..." that lack of basic diplomacy skills and compassion is enough reason to remove her, never mind if it's bigotry.
She refused repeatedly to meet with mainstream Jewish orgs. She only met with a few fringe groups funded by known antisemites. One doesn't make this many gaffs by mistake, when one could hire a proof reader.
AJC tends to be left of center.
https://www.ajc.org/news/ilhan-omar-has-a-problem-with-jews
---
True Taliban will take over. But maybe it help slow down some violence along the way, or give some local other groups a chance to get a little foothold? This wasn't how to do with this from the beginning.
----
Meanwhile, the market looks poised to rally. All the stimulus and recovery and such. Helicopter money everywhere. Except in savings accounts.
The ten year treasury yield is falling today, down almost basis points to 1.37%.
ReplyDeleteU.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
1.369% -0.068
Last Updated: Jul 6, 2021 at 10:41 a.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page
This move simply drives the nominal yield deeper into negative real yield territory and confirms the irrelevance of inflation and inflation expectations as a factor influencing yields.
This decline in interest rates is causing a 2.69% decline in KRE as 10:44.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kre?mod=over_search
++
Israel claims that the Pfizer vaccine is only 65% effective against the Delta variant, though "largely" effective at preventing hospitalization.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-confirms-vaccine-less-effective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/
This news may be contributing to the decline today and better performance for the Covid testing firms.
Hologic Inc.
$68.54 +$0.84 +1.24%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/holx?mod=over_search
In the U.S., millions have skipped their second shots. The number in just PA is more than 1 million.
https://www.inquirer.com/news/covid-second-shots-skip-delta-vaccine-pa-20210702.html
The concern is that the virus will survive due to vaccination resistance and eventually mutate into a variant that is more deadly and resistant to the vaccines.
The rate drop should be driving the market into a green rally... as it detaches rates from inflation.
DeleteI still think inflation by itself without a rate hike, can cause quite a bit of damage as salaries can't keep up with buying costs, and earnings in real monetary value go down.
I just think inflation shifts a lot, even if rates aren't shifted. Something will give somewhere?
---
The delta variant hasn't caused nearly the havoc of before. With 50-60% vaccinated so far, it's likely to motivate more fence sitters.
But that's got to be what's motivating the market today.
I am so annoyed that my sister's family is having company only a week before our scheduled family vacation that are antivaxxers. The visiting family is willing to covid test before coming. I haven't pushed because my sister's been more cautious than me. So I expect this to shift. But what an annoying problem to run into... meanwhile I need my 2nd shingrix vaccine & will get it this week. I'm stocked my frig for the expected out of it-ness. (Expect even less coherency than usual once I get it.)
Without the delta variant, I'd be less worried. So maybe the market is reflecting this kind of thing...
----
But the market is no where near 200 dmas, so nothing to worry about yet.
VIX was close to 15... I just remembered. That is likely part of this move today. Technicals from HFT algorithms.
Another delta article with a lot of details:
Deletehttps://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/health-officials-rule-covid-booster-recommended-for-immunocompromised-672894
Land: I am just reading the price signals being sent. The pandemic trade stocks are up even though the major stock indexes are down.
DeleteThe pandemic stocks include, by way of examples, the Covid testing companies (HOLX and QDEL), Clorox, Netflix (NFLX), AMZN, and Zoom (ZM)
Zoom Video Communications, Inc.
$401.53 +$12.64 +3.25%
Last Updated: Jul 6, 2021 at 1:07 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/zm?mod=over_search
While I believe that is a correct assessment, it does not provide much future directional guidance.
I do not believe the market is reacting negatively to the ISM Services PMI index for June which came in slightly lower than expected at 60.1.
"While I believe that is a correct assessment, it does not provide much future directional guidance."
ReplyDeleteThat's the problem. I think your read is accurate. I've been thinking delta's been bothering the market for a few weeks.
My writing ended mid-thought.
DeleteYes, the problem being that there isn't guidance, from the market here.
====
I'm feeling uncomfortable... and looking for a signal to off load a lot of stock.
There aren't signals to do that.
So this is a confusing spot. But it's a pretty recent feeling, separate from the one just before that last dip. I have this perception of the market, and nothing to back it up.
And ... if the market tanks over the delta variant, I'll buy into lower points, not sell. As will everyone.
Which is why lack of guidance from the market movements is a problem for me.
Vimeo Inc. (VMEO)
ReplyDelete$50.53 +0.84 +1.69%
Last Updated: Jul 6, 2021 at 2:12 p.m. EDT
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vmeo?mod=over_search
VMEO is another company that can be characterized as a pandemic play. The company was recently spun out of IAC:
https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/vimeo-stock-can-it-stream-profits-for-investors/
I have already written up a discussion for my next post. I have bought 4+ shares with an AC of $43.77 as a Lotto.
Good buy. My reaction is to think, i should do some of these small buying, lottos and other buys.
DeleteI see how it's small gains (usually) but a nice stream of them, that add up. It'd be a shift from watching. And small buys wouldn't hurt even if lost everything (hence the lotto size.)
Hum, mulling this shift...
LAND: My realized short term capital gains are probably close to $20K so far this year. A lot of those are just small ball positions that add up.
DeleteToday, I sold 3 shares of CUBE, realized a gain of $77.16 and reduced my AC to $21.25 per share.
CubeSmart (CUBE)
$48.04 +$1.21 +2.58%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cube?mod=over_search
This is a typical small ball trade where I harvested a LT gain, reduced my at risk monetary exposure and my average cost per share, and increased my dividend yield to 6.4% based on my AC.
I am in a hyper risk management mode.
While most Americans and the Stock Jocks are treating the pandemic as an unpleasant historical event (or just Fake News in TrumpWorld), I believe that conclusion is is premature. The virus has proven its resiliency for survival and change.
If I found it working, I could then shift from regular $ to Roth $ and not effect my taxes and eligibility for drug assistance. I haven't wanted to play in that account. It's the smallest of my funds.
DeleteI could move some 401k to a traditional IRA and play. But that accounts done way. I think it being "hidden" mentally from me, and it hard to do much in it, has resulted in better returns. Lol.
Do you suspect if you'd held the same buys, they'd be higher than with the trading, even on these types of buys? I found I'd sell & did better holding. The inaction has worked well for me.
---
I am not worried about the pandemic directly anymore. (But will keep an open mind!) But, I think there's fallout that will cause problems.
I anticipate that there will be immoral, uses of money that collapse parts of the economy. That's an out of the blue statement, no specific events. But there's too much room here for someone to go big down this road. It's happens usually before leading to recessions, but also often as part of when odd stuff is happening -- like this housing market rally, no cost investing, meme stocks.
BUT, a big but, this kind of "something's wrong around the corner" is how people lose money in the market by lost opportunity. So I'm waiting for signals before thinking this really will happen.
Land: The mental game for investing is a lot like baseball. If a batter looks ridiculous on the last swing, best to put that event in Al Gore's lock box and forget about it.
DeleteLooking back, I would say most of my mistakes have been in what I failed to buy, starting with 100 shares of Berkshire at $16 in 1974.
I would have been better off now keeping every stock that I owned, but that would have required me to have a lot more capital to hold all of the positions going back to HCA purchased in 1968, bought with my lawn mowing money.
I am glad that I got rid of well over 100 stocks when I did, but the net dollar gain from holding everything compared to what I actually realized would be significantly positive, though not enough to make a tender offer for Canada, all of it, so that I could rename it Northern Tennessee.
I would emphasize that the S & P 500 was at 20 when I was born, so buying and holding a low cost index fund, reinvesting the dividends, buying more when prices collapse, and never selling, would have been a winning strategy when pursued over decades.
But then the Nikkei 225 closed today at 28,643 and at 38,080 on 12/22/1989.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data
So my buy and hold is good. But even better if I fine tune for what looks like it's working and solid - less risky by removing one that are in broken down fundamentals.
DeleteMy timeline is shorter than it was. Playing with small gains, has some more valid now than if I'd held at 20 (which I did to index funds.)
Really interesting to note that not holding looks like the biggest mistakes. Mine was buying microsoft right before 1999, and haven't no clue so a year later is was down, and I thought, oh well that didn't work out. I had no sense it was caught in the starts of a crash.
I'm so bothered that I got $500 of my niece's money into VT. But the rest is just sitting in cash. Realistically, should buy her for her. But can't bring myself to.
IWM is down again today.
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=iwm
That divergence from the rest of the pack, has to mean something.
Trying to remember, small caps were particularly hit during the pademic worry. While tech flew. So it could be purely rotation. Not the divergence that signals early that the market's headed for a pullback...?
I have learned over the last year to be more comfortable with investing, in general.
Land: IWM has a 21.17% weighting in Health care and 14.67% in Financials.
Deletehttps://www.ishares.com/us/products/239710/
The Financial stocks have been weak recently due to the decline in interest rates. IWM owns a lot of unprofitable healthcare companies, particularly clinical stage biotechs and those stocks have declined this week. The largest holding is the MEME stock AMC with close to $462M in exposure.
The small caps are considered by many to be early economic cycle plays and there may be some selling since that play has just about burned its fuel.
The iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap Minimum Volatility Factor ETF (SMMV) fell just $.01 today compared to .93% or $2.1 for IWM.
SMMV has an 11.71% weighting in Financials and 19.29% in Health Care stocks.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/284609/ishares-edge-msci-min-vol-usa-small-cap-etf-fund
The stocks owned by this fund tend to be profitable while IWM will own a lot of unprofitable ones. SMMV will have a larger weighting in utility and REIT stocks. The largest weighting is in CUBE which I mentioned in a comment above.
The weightings explain it!
DeleteI used this mid-small cap RUSSO or something like that, for years in my 401k and outside it. I really liked it. It did well, including during the dead 10 SnP years.
I switched to IWM for easier trading. I've got to reconsider which ETFs. SMMV is interesting idea to avoid some of the dead weight!
Google's Blogger site no longer has spell checking. There are now services that purportedly provide grammar and spell checking. I have now tried Grammarly and Ginger and have concluded that both are horrible. Ginger has identified almost 70 errors in my next blog post and none of them are accurate. I am keeping Ginger solely as a spell checker.
ReplyDeleteWhat is somewhat humorous is that Ginger wants me to change in the previous paragraph "that purportedly provides" to "provide" and then when I substitute "provides" Ginger says change it back to "provide". So I went with "provide".
One common annoyance is that these services want to make grammatical changes in a quote, and then the change is grammatically wrong IMO.
If I change the wording of a quote, then it is no longer an accurate quote.
This kind of reference is changed: "Argus: Buy" to "Argus: Bye".
All parenthesis around stock symbols are deleted.
This kind of change is typical: Correct sentence: "The consensus E.P.S. estimate is $1". Ginger changes that sentence to "The consensus E.P.S. The estimate is $1."
And both of those services want their free users to pay a significant monthly fee for their less limited service.
I wrote a comment about the adventures of spell and grammar checkers this morning. And somehow disappeared it before it posted.
DeleteI decided to give up on it. I've got 101 from the vaccine. On the plus, at least my immune system isn't ignoring it!
Quotes need to stay quoted. Of course!
I don't know if I've talked about the IBM internal spellchecker. I STILL think about it probably twice a week while frustratingly going to google to see how to spell the word, that I know I'm off by only 1-2 letters.
The *internal* one was fantastic. It always guessed right and gave good offers. They then released an external one, that was better than my memory but so-so. When I left, I had the internal on a floppy & I installed it for as long as I could get it to work.
So I have a lot of opinion and energy on grrrr spellcheckers. I could get so much more done if I had a good one.
The grammar checkers are worse.
Then there's autocorrect. It looks right. But changes before I hit post.
Well, I'll just have to guess that you bought Argus and aren't saying good bye to some Angus cows.
Though here's some cows enjoying a concert. The title "rushing" seems a bit overstated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IypL_EcI9XE
I noted in a 6/29 comment that the Stock Jocks were starting to be spooked again about Covid.
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/06/amom-bam-ctt-cva-dnngy-ebix-glq-rt-gnl.html?showComment=1624972222497#c4121310786303949013
That opinion is based simply on sector and stock price signals that day.
I view today's downside as having the same cause, but expressing more concern than prior recent reactions.
The only stock sectors that are working so far today for me are utility and consumer staple stocks, with a smattering of green arrows in a few health care stocks that I own. All of the electric utility stocks that I own, except for ETR, were up when I last looked (AEP, AGR, D, DUK, EVRG, PEG, and SO)
My high quality bonds will be up today as interest rates continue to move down, probably in response to concerns about the pandemic. My weighting in high quality Tennessee municipal bonds is slightly higher than in individual stocks. Cash is by far my largest weighting.
A number of recent news items about Covid have generated renewed concern, with today's news about Japan declaring a state of emergency being just the most recent.
S&P 500 Index
4,290.70 -67.43 -1.55%
Last Updated: Jul 8, 2021 at 10:27 a.m. EDT
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note
1.287% -0.032
CBOE Volatility Index
19.49 +3.29 +20.31%
Last Updated: Jul 8, 2021 at 9:16 a.m. CDT
I will probably do some scatter shot small ball buying today.
In addition to the utilities mentioned in the last comment, I also own WEC and ED that are up today so far and the gas utilities NJR and SJI. Another owned utility PPL is down .25% currently. The market started a rally around 11 E.D.T.
DeleteI have a few PPL shares as a bond substitute.
DeleteVIX is back up over 20 so far, good to notice.
Patel, woman, on Biden's team, on CNN, was kind of negative over Delta. A few doctors on TV that should be respectable, seem to be. I still think it won't create a new lasting problem.
But the FED was caught flat on inflation yesterday, this says. I suspect this also contributed. (Though agree, inflation won't effect rates...)
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dow-futures-tumble-in-stock-selloff
I'm worried about workers who don't deserve to treat those who won't vaccinate. But if you choose not to... it's like trying to yell, not to go over the cliff.
This is the kind of news that is causing some concern:
ReplyDelete"New study on delta variant reveals importance of receiving both vaccine shots, highlights challenges posed by mutations"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-study-on-delta-variant-reveals-importance-of-receiving-both-vaccine-shots-highlights-challenges-posed-by-mutations/ar-AALVjwC?li=BBnb7Kz
This is a WP article republished at MSN.
The study found that a single shot of a two shot vaccine "barely" provides any protection against the Delta variant. Millions in the U.S. have not received the second shot in the allotted time.
Those who are fully vaccinated "should retain significant protection against the delta variant".
I do not regard the use of the words "should" or "significant" in that sentence to be very reassuring taken in light of the report from Israel that the Pfizer vaccine was only 64% effective against this variant.
I doubt the Delta variant will be anywhere near the last one.
It's certainly not upbeat news.
DeleteI thought the stock market made a nice partial recovery into the close. It is hard for the Stock Jocks to stay too concerned about a problem that had yet to happen. Remember that the March 2020 swoon occurred only when it became obvious that the pandemic was going to hit hard.
ReplyDeleteWhile I did some small ball buying in the morning, I elected to raise some cash in the afternoon.
The two largest dispositions were 100 share of the Canadian reset CPXPRE:CA and 100 shares of the buy-write CEF BXMX. Those two sales netted about US1,000 or so in profit. (The Ginger software says I need to put a space after the comma in US1,000 here and in the prior sentence, and remove the parenthesis + change "remove" to "removes")
I am becoming concerned that CPXPRE may reset at at a lower coupon, which prompted me to sell 50 shares a few weeks ago. The close today was at
C$24.36 and the prior sell was at C$22.01.
Item # 1.A. Sold 50 of 150 CPXPRE at C$22.01 (IB C$1 commission):
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/05/aod-avk-brkl-cpxpreca-duk-ebgef-ed-he.html
The current coupon is 5.238%, which resets at a and 3.15% spread to the five year Canadian bond in April 2023.
My cost basis for that 100 share lot was C$16.38.
I'm going to try this again from my cell phone. I never post from here.
ReplyDeleteI was wondering whether at the end of the day the market would rally or settle into the decline. The market is still getting bought into very comfortably...
I wonder if any settings on the spelling grammar programs would help. It drives me crazy that my cell phone still can't spell my name correctly. There's a few possible variations. And after I corrected it oh 50 times... Why doesn't it store my correct spelling?
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2021/07/akba-cag-fhb-gsk-kc-maxn-mtb-oran-qdel.html