Economy:
Emphasis supplied in the following quotes:
"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent."
"Real GDP increased 5.7 percent in 2021 (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), in contrast to a decrease of 3.4 percent in 2020 (table 1). The increase in real GDP in 2021 reflected increases in all major subcomponents, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports increased (table 2)."
"The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 6.5 percent, compared with an increase of 5.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.9 percent, compared with an increase of 4.6 percent."
4th quarter personal savings rate = 7.2%
The Fed Is Ignoring the Money Supply and Letting Inflation Rip | Barron's (1/23/22, Originally Titled A Grim History Repeats) This opinion article, authored by the economist Arthur Heller who was a FED member, argues that the primary reason for inflation's surge is excessive money creation, a concept championed by Milton Friedman who claimed that inflation was a monetary phenomenon.
Heller points out that the FED has increased money supply from $15 trillion in January 2020 to $21 trillion in November 2021. Money supply growth was over 12% in 1971-1972 and in 1976-1977.
There were other contributing factors to the problematic inflation period that started in the late 1960s that ultimately required the FED to take the federal funds rate up to 20% by June 1981.
When evaluating the sources of inflation, I doubt that any one cause can be identified as the primary one as Friedman maintained since there are so many separate and related sources.
The pandemic and supply chain problems are a contributing cause to the current problematic inflation numbers. Those causes can not be dismissed as inconsequential as monetarist will do.
The U.S. tariffs on China's imports are still in place and contribute to higher domestic prices.
Abnormally low interest rates maintained for an extended period of time has inflated home prices and rents again, similar to what happened in the 2002-2007 period.
Consumer demand has been over stimulated with fiscal policies, particularly those that sent cash to households funded from more federal government borrowed money.
Energy costs have risen substantially and may enter a parabolic move higher similar to what happened during the 2008 recession, when WTI moved over $145 a barrel. Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel); US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions | NBER
Longer term, I anticipate a retreat from global sourcing in favor of more domestic production which will increase prices and contribute to higher inflation. Globalization has been a major factor in low inflation numbers over the past 40 years or so, though that trend has resulted in a loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs.
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Markets and Market Commentary:
10 Cheap Stocks to Consider for Volatile Markets | Barron's Of the stocks listed, I currently own CTRA, LNC (Roth IRA only and not discussed here), OGN and VTRS.
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Earnings Reports-owned stocks:
This section will have a brief summary of earnings report for stocks that I own, touching on a few relevant points. I will include a discussion of more than 50% of those reports but nowhere near all.
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB)(net income of $74M or $.49 per share with the consensus at $.419; for 2021, ASB reported E.P.S. of $2.18; NIM = 2.39%, down from 2.49% in the 2020 4th Q; NPL Ratio = .54%; dividend payout ratio =34.55%; Total risk based capital ratio =13.10%; tangible book value per share = $17.87)
AT & T (T) SEC Filed Press Release (after selling most of my AT & T shares, I kept the shares owned in my Fidelity account, which had the lowest cost basis, and have bought a few more shares in response to the recent meltdown in the share price. The lowest prices paid during the meltdown period were $22.3, $22.36, $22.75 and $23.17 (just 7 shares). I currently own 72+ shares in that account with an average cost of $27.02. I have not had a favorable opinion about this stock for a very, very long time, given the massive destructions of shareholder capital measured well into the billions of dollars. The company reported 4th quarter adjusted E.P.S. of $.78 per share with the consensus on that basis at $.759 per Fidelity; GAAP E.P.S. = $.69; revenues at $41B with free cash flow at $8.7B; HBO, which will soon be owned by Discovery (DISCA), finished the year with 73.8M subscribers, up 13.1M. AT&T's WarnerMedia And Discovery, Inc. Creating Standalone Company By Combining Operations To Form New Global Leader In Entertainment (5/17/21 Post) The pending transaction for WarnerMedia with Discovery is currently expected to close during the second quarter. I have added to my DISCA position during its recent meltdown phase after eliminating my position last year.) The stock fell 8.42% yesterday in response, closing at $24.25. Some of that decline, or most of it, may be attributed to the confusion created by management on whether the Warner Media transaction will be a spin-off or split off. The former was my previous understanding.
Bank of America (BAC) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $7B or $.82 per share with the consensus at $.76 per Fidelity; 2021 E.P.S. at $3.57). I currently own 5+ shares with an average cost per share of $24.09, Item # 1.J. Started BAC- Bought 2 at $25.61; 1 at $25.28; 1 at $23.97; 2 at $23.7, 1 at $23.31 (9/26/20 Post) I sold the highest cost 2 shares in November 2020 and reinvested 2 dividend payments before turning to cash payments after the 2021 first quarter. Item #1.J. (12/12/20 Post) In a recent Barron's article, it was noted that a 1% rise in the FF rate "will boost net interest income by $6.5 billion over 12 months." These 3 Bank Stocks Won Earnings Season. They’re All Worth Buying. | Barron's; Bank of America Stock Climbed 50% Last Year. Why Its Surge Can Continue. | Barron's
Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $9.8M or $.65 per diluted share, up from $.58 in the 2020 4th quarter; core E.P.S. was reported at $.68, with the consensus estimate at $.67; NIM = 2.79%, down from 3.02% in the 2020 4th quarter; efficiency ratio = 60.74%; "13% annualized commercial loan growth, excluding PPP loans"; NPA Ratio =.27%; coverage ratio = 223%; charge off ratio = .01%; tangible book value per share = $19.86; core return on tangible equity = 13.93%; core ROA = 1.07%)
Citizens Financial Group (CFG) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. at $1.17 based on net income of $530M; "underlying" E.P.S. at $1.26, the consensus was at $1.131 per Fidelity; NIM at 2.66%, down from 2.75% in the 2020 4th quarter; efficiency ratio at 62%; NPL Ratio = .55%, Charge off ratio = .14%; coverage ratio = 276%; ROTE = 13.6% with underlying at 14.6%; the notable items excluded from GAAP to arrive at underlying are set forth at page 13 and are primarily related to "transformational and revenue and efficiency initiatives as well as integration costs associated with pending and closed acquisitions, primarily HSBC East Coast branches and online deposits, Investors Bancorp, Inc. and JMP Group LLC. Third quarter 2021 also includes a pension settlement charge recorded in other operating expense and a compensation-related tax credit." CFG is in the process of acquiring Investors Bancorp which I currently own as well). Several brokers upgraded their CFG's price targets in response to this report. GS, for example, raised its PT to $64 from $58.
First Bancorp (FNLC) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $9.5M or $.87 per share, up $.23 per share from the 2020 4th quarter; no analyst estimates; 2021 E.P.S. at $3.31, up 33.1 from 2020; NIM = 3%, a slight increase from 2.97% in the 2020 4th quarter; efficiency ratio = 55.61%; ROE = 15.47%; ROTE = 17.71%; ROA = 1.49%; NPL Ratio = .35%; NPA Ratio = .23%; tangible book value per share = $19.52; total risk based capital ratio = 14.4%)
First Hawaiian (FHB) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP net income of $57M or $.44 per share; GAAP earnings included a $9M charge for repaying early "$200.0 million of Federal Home Loan Bank advances at a weighted average rate of 2.73%"; non-GAAP, referred to as "core" in press release, = E.P.S. = $.53, consensus at $.44, but unclear whether the consensus included $9M charge; repurchased $21.5M of stock during the 4th Q; NIM = 2.38%, down from 2.71% in the 2020 4th Q; Core efficiency ratio = 53.71%; NPA Ratio = .06%; Coverage Ratio = 22.1x; Charge off Ratio = .19%; core ROA = 1.05%%; core ROE = 10.09%; core ROTE = 16.06%; Tangible Book Value per share = $13.03 ; total capital ratio = 13.49% )
F.N.B. (FNB) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $96.5M or $.30 per share, with the consensus at $.297 per Fidelity; 2021 E.P.S. at $1.23; NIM. = 2.55%, down from 2.87% in the 2020 4th Q; efficiency ratio = 58.1%; ROA = .99%; ROTE = 14.53%; NPL Ratio = .35%; charge off ratio =.02%; coverage ratio = 391.9%; "Non-interest expense totaled $181.6 million, decreasing $17.7 million, or 8.9%"; "Excluding PPP loans, period-end total loans and leases increased $1.3 billion, or 5.7%, including growth of $817.2 million in commercial loans and leases and $514.7 million in consumer loans"; tangible book value per share = $8.59)
General Dynamics (GD) SEC Filed Press Release ("net earnings of $952 million and diluted EPS of $3.39 on $10.3 billion in revenue", with the E.P.S. consensus at $3.373 per Fidelity; 2021 E.P.S. at $11.55 with $38.5B in revenue; "For the year, net cash provided by operating activities totaled a record-high $4.3 billion, or 131% of net earnings. For the year, the company reduced debt by $1.5 billion, invested $887 million in capital expenditures, paid $1.3 billion in dividends, and repurchased $1.8 billion in shares, ending 2021 with $1.6 billion in cash and equivalents on hand."; "Orders remained strong across the company with a consolidated book-to-bill ratio, defined as orders divided by revenue, of 1-to-1 for the quarter and the year. In addition to company-wide backlog of $87.6 billion, estimated potential contract value, representing management’s estimate of additional value in unfunded indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contracts and unexercised options, was $39.9 billion at year end. Total estimated contract value, the sum of all backlog components, was $127.5 billion.")
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) SEC Filed Press Release (There are several problems with this report that explain the negative reaction to it. At first glance, E.P.S. was reported at $3.33, better than the consensus estimate of $3.01. However, $.47 of the $3.3 was due to a release of credit reserves taken in prior quarters rather than earnings generated from operations in the 4th quarter; without that credit reserve release, E.P.S. would have been at $2.86; reported E.P.S. was at $3.79 in the 2020 4th quarter with a $.72 per share contribution from credit reserve release or $3.05 without that release; importantly, expenses rose to $17.9B in the quarter, up from $16B in the 2020 4th quarter and JPM projected a 9% rise in expenses this year to $77B; adjusting for the credit loss reserve, E.P.S. fell 4 cents in the 2021 4th quarter Y-O-Y while expenses increased by 11.88%; compensation and other expenses are rising a far faster rate than income, which I view as a major negative. I currently own 4 shares with a $97.1 per share cost basis Item # 1.C. Bought 1 JPM at $99.88; 1 at $98.69; 1 at $97.87; 1 at $ 94 (10/10/20 Post) As previously discussed in a comment, I may sell when and if the price goes back above $160. 4Q20 Earnings Press Release).
Kinder Morgan (KMI) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $.28; adjusted to $.27 with consensus at $.255 per Fidelity; the more important number IMO, given the heavy depreciation expense, is distributable cash flow (DCF) per share at $.47; declared quarterly dividend of $27 per share; revenues = $4.425B; "fourth quarter net income attributable to KMI of $637 million, compared to $607 million in the fourth quarter of 2020; and distributable cash flow (DCF) of $1,093 million, compared to $1,250 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. Adjusted Earnings were $609 million for the quarter, versus $604 million in the fourth quarter of 2020."; "For the full year 2021, KMI reported net income attributable to KMI of $1,784 million, compared to $119 million in 2020; and DCF of $5,460 million, up 19% from $4,597 million for the comparable period in 2020. The increases compared to the prior period are primarily related to KMI’s strong performance during the February winter storm and are therefore largely nonrecurring."; "For 2022, KMI expects to generate net income attributable to KMI of $2.5 billion and declare dividends of $1.11 per share, a 3% increase from the 2021 declared dividends. KMI expects to generate 2022 DCF of $4.7 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 billion; and to end 2022 with a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.3, below our long-term target of approximately 4.5 times. The $4.7 billion DCF and 4.3 times leverage metric do not reflect the potential impact of the possible use of up to $750 million available for attractive opportunities, including share repurchases." I recently added a 100 share lot to my position. Item # 1 Bought 100 KMI at $15.89 (1/7/22 Post)
L M Ericsson ADR (ERIC) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. in USDs = $.365 with the consensus per Fidelity at $.245; E.P.S. in SEKs at 3.02; SEK net income 10.1B; net sales at SEK 71.3, up from SEK 69.6 in the 2020 4th quarter) Swedish Krona to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
Lockheed Martin (LMT) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. of $7.47 with the consensus at $7.155 per Fidelity; revenues = $17.729B, up from $17.032B in the 2020 4th quarter; 2022 guidance: E.P.S. approximately $26.7 with free cash flow of $6B)
One National Bancorp (ONB) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP net income of $56.2M or $.34 per share; non-GAAP E.P.S. $.37; consensus at $.28 per Fidelity; 4th GAAP numbers include a "pre-tax charge of $6.7 million related to the pending merger with First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. Excluding these charges from the current quarter and netting out debt securities gains, adjusted net income was $60.9 million, or $0.37 per diluted share; NIM = 2.77%, down from 3.26% in the 2020 4th quarter; adjusted efficiency ratio at 59.95% with GAAP at 64.27%; NPL Ratio = .92%, high for the bank stocks that I own; Charge off ratio = (.04%%, net recovery); Coverage ratio = 86%; ROTE = 12.07%, low for the bank stocks that I own; ROA = .93%, tangible book value per share. = $11.7; number of banking centers = 162; dividend payout ratio = 41%; total capital ratio = 12.77%)
Webster Financial (WBS) SEC Filed Press Release (net income of $108.4M or $1.2 per share with the consensus at $1.097; "For the full year 2021, earnings applicable to common shareholders was $398.7 million, or $4.42 per diluted share, and includes $47.1 million ($39.1 million after tax) of merger related, strategic optimization, and debt prepayment expenses."; "total non-interest expense was $189.9 million compared to $219.5 million, a decrease of $29.6 million, compare that to JPM; NIM = 2.73%, down from 2.83% in the 2020 4th quarter; efficiency ratio = 54.85%; NPL Ratio = .49%; Coverage Ratio = 274.36%; Charge off ratio = (.02%, net recovery) ; ROTE = 16.23%; ROA = 1.26%; tangible book value per share =$30.22, up from $28.04 as of 12/31/2020)
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America's anti-democracy party has decided that 2 Democrat congressional representatives from Tennessee were 1 too many.
Tennessee has 9 congressional seats, and that did not change as a result of the 2020 census.
Tennessee republicans could not do anything about the congressional seat that included Memphis since there are just too many African Americans residing there. So they decided to replace by legislative fiat the Democrat representing Nashville instead.
The republicans decided to get rid of Jim Cooper who represented Nashville and won the last election with 100% of the vote since no republican bothered to run against him. He was not beatable.
After the republican supermajority in both the state house and senate passed a new congressional redistricting map purportedly in response to the 2020 Census, Jim Cooper decided to retire since he could no longer win. Retiring Rep. Jim Cooper says Republicans "savaged Nashville" - Axios
The republicans carved up Nashville into three pieces, which substantially diluted the black vote for Cooper and combined those pieces with solidly republican districts. Soon, 3 Trumpster republican representatives will represent parts of Nashville.
The republicans will gain 1 congressional seat, giving them 8 out of 9.
Representatives from the anti-democracy party claim that this is best for Nashville since the city will soon have 3 representatives rather than just 1, ignoring of course that the 3 Trumpster republicans will advocate policies opposed by a clear majority of Nashville residents who do not have any say in that matter. Democrats will continue to win the Nashville mayor's race in a landslide, and the republican super-majority in the state senate and house can not change that result.
While this carve up of Nashville was of course "political" gerrymandering at its worse, with the intended purpose of forcing Cooper into retirement which has just happened, it was also racially based IMO, flagrantly designed to deprive black residents of any voice in Tennessee congressional elections except in Memphis.
It is possible in a one or two decades that this political and racial gerrymander will come back to haunt the republicans, as growth in Nashville continues to outpace the rest of Tennessee. More moderates will move into the region, possibly changing the political dynamics to such an extent that the Democrats may have a shot of gaining 2 out of the 3 congressional seats created out of Nashville, and possibly, way down the road, all three. Those changes are, however, in the distant future. In 2022, Tennessee will have 8 of 9 republican representatives (89%) with about 58% to 60% of the statewide vote in the 9 congressional elections.
At least the Tennessee republicans, responding to years of public pressure, removed a bust of the confederate general Nathan Bedford Forrest, a founder of the Ku Klux Klan, from the state capitol rotunda.
The greatest threat to America's democracy and freedoms comes from within.
Georgia Is on a Path to Potentially Prosecuting Trump - The Atlantic
Read the never-issued Trump order that would have the military seize voting machines - POLITICO This is one of the documents that Trump and his lawyers wanted to hide from the 1/6 Committee.
Newt Gingrich: January 6 committee, investigators may face jail (Gingrich, the former GOP House Majority Leader had this to say: “I think when you have a Republican Congress, this is all going to come crashing down and the wolves are going to find that they are now sheep, and they’re the ones who are in fact I think going to face a real risk of jail for the kinds of laws they’re breaking.”)
CDC says 'milder doesn't mean mild' amid Covid hospitalization spike
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1. Small Ball-Hyper Risk Management Strategy:
This post, like most recent ones, shows continued net stock selling activity.
The recent VIX spike over 30 and share price declines have triggered a very small amount of net buying.
CBOE Volatility Index: VIX- St. Louis Fed
In my VIX model, the current trend is called a Phase 1 Unstable Vix Pattern where I am far more inclined to sell the rips and buy the dips.
Vix Asset Allocation Model Explained Simply With as Few Words as Possible (5/17/2009 Post)
A. Eliminated BRG in Schwab Account-Sold 20+ at $26.52:
Bluerock is being acquired for $24.25 per share in cash plus shares of BRG's single family home rental business that I do not want to own, which has an estimated net asset value of $5.6 per share. Bluerock Residential Growth REIT To Be Acquired By Affiliates of Blackstone Real Estate In $3.6 Billion Transaction This will consequently be my last discussion.
History This Account:
Profit Snapshot: +$454.86
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.I. Bought 20 Shares BRG, Multiple Lot Buys Between $4.01 and $5.7 Totaling $99.8 with an AC at $4.99 per share (5/30/20 Post) Those lots were bought during the market's meltdown in response to the pandemic induced recession.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
BRG Realized Gains to Date: $1,620.86. That will be a final total.
Item # 1.K Eliminated BRG in Fidelity Account-Sold 107+ at $6.37 (5/16/20 Post)(contains links to prior trades) That trade proved to be less than optimal.
B. Eliminated CC in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 20 at $36.23:
Quote: Chemours Co.
"The Chemours Company (NYSE: CC) is a global leader in Titanium Technologies, Thermal & Specialized Solutions, Advanced Performance Materials, and Chemical Solutions providing its customers with solutions in a wide range of industries with market-defining products, application expertise and chemistry-based innovations. We deliver customized solutions with a wide range of industrial and specialty chemicals products for markets, including coatings, plastics, refrigeration, and air conditioning, transportation, semiconductor and consumer electronics, general industrial, mining and oil and gas. Our flagship products include prominent brands such as Ti-Pure™, Opteon™, Freon™, Teflon™, Viton™, Nafion™, and Krytox™. In 2019, Chemours was named to Newsweek’s list of America’s Most Responsible Companies. The company has approximately 6,500 employees and 30 manufacturing sites serving approximately 3,300 customers in approximately 120 countries."
The main knocks on this company are its cyclicality, debt levels, and litigation/environmental remediation risks. For a litigation overview, see pages 23-43 of the last filed 10-Q. I view the litigation and remediation risks as worrisome and serious.
Brands and Products | The Chemours Company
Profit Snapshot: +$221.41
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.D. Sold 22 CC Vanguard Taxable account at $28.5 (1/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.79); Item # 1.F. Pared CC in Fidelity Account-Sold 5 at $33.81 (5/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.11)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
CC 2021-2022 Realized Gains: $304.31 (47 shares)
There were no purchases prior to 2021.
C. Eliminated FLO-Sold 20+ at $28.30:
Quote: Flowers Foods Inc.
FLO "is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the United States with 2020 sales of $4.4 billion. Flowers operates bakeries across the country that produce a wide range of bakery products. Among the company’s top brands are Nature’s Own, Dave’s Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, and Tastykake."
FLO SEC Filings; 2020 Annual Report
Investment Category: Bond Substitute with a flavor of Dividend Growth
History this Account:
Profit Snapshot: +$119.76
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, last raised from $.20 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment.
Flowers Foods, Inc. Common Stock (FLO) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Ex Dividend: 12/2/21 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 10/9/21): SEC Filed Press Release
Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.30 with the consensus at $.25 per Schwab.
GAAP to Non-GAAP Calculation:
The non-cash depreciation expense was reported at $31.68M during the quarter. That amount is not deducted from GAAP net income in the foregoing calculation. I am just not comfortable, however, in using the non-GAAP number since the two major deductions from GAAP are related to normal business operations.
"Year-to-date, through the third quarter of fiscal 2021, cash flow from operating activities decreased by $49.2 million to $315.2 million, capital expenditures increased $18.5 million to $86.7 million, and dividends paid increased $6.6 million to $131.5 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $307.5 million at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2021."
History this Taxable Account:
Quote: Ares Capital Corp.
Website: Ares Capital Corporation
Profit Snapshot: +$83.53
I also eliminated ARCC in my Vanguard RI:
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| 4 Shares + $50.36 |
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.C. Added 5 ARCC at $14.3; 5 at $14; 5 at $13.67; 5 at $12.5; 5 at $12.4; 5 at $12; 5 at $11.74; 5 at $10.44; 5 at $9.4 (4/4/20 Post) The 5 share lot bought at $9.4 is the lowest price ever paid for this stock that I started to trade over 10 years ago. The progression of those buy prices indicates that I was catching a falling knife.
Net Asset Value per share history:
9/30/21: $18.52 10-Q
12/31/20: $16.97 10-K
9/30/18: $17.16
12/21/17: $16.65
9/30/17: $16.49 10-Q
12/30/16: $16.45
9/30/16: $16.59
6/30/16: $16.62
3/31/16: $16.5
12/31/14: $16.82
9/30/13: $16.35
3/31/12: $15.47
6/30/10: $14.11
12/31/09: $11.44 10-K
9/30/09: $11.16 10-Q
12/31/08: $11.27
6/30/08: $12.83 10-Q
12/31/07: $15.47 10-K at page 57
9/30/07: $15.74
3/31/05: $14.96
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| Price as of 1/26/22 Close |
I discussed the third quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Dividend: Quarterly, regular at $.41 per share.
ARCC has paid some special dividends.
I have quit reinvesting the dividend in all accounts.
Last Ex Dividend: 12/14/21
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.J. Sold 1 ARCC at $19.27 (4/30/21 Post); Item # 3.C. Pared ARCC in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 20 at $17,44 and Item #3.D. Pared ARCC in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $17.32 (1/1/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $39.52: post contains in Item # 3.D. prior profit snapshots); Item # 1.C. Sold 50 ARCC at $16.98 (6/18/18 Post); Item 2.A. Eliminated ARCC-Sold Remaining 50 Shares at $17.25 (2/15/17 Post); Item # 1, Sold 102+ ARCC at $15.32 and 50 at $15.26: Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 8/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Sold 100 ARCC at $17.195 (4/28/15 Post); Item # 3 Sold 100 ARCC Roth IRA at $17.05 (2/25/15 Post); Sold 100 ARCC at $17.54-IRAs in Two 50 Share Lots (9/13/12 Post)
ARCC Realized Gains to Date: $846.52
Goal: As with all BDC stocks, the goal is simply to earn a return in excess of the dividends paid.
Of the externally managed BDCs, ARCC has the best long term track record IMO.
History this Account:
Profit Snapshot: $45.16
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Bought 5 VIRT at $27.75; 5 at $27 (7/15/21 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/21): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. = $.59
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.70
Bought back $138.9M in stock (5.4M shares)
GAAP to Non-GAAP:
F. Pared TD-Sold 2 at $82:
Quotes:
USDs: Toronto-Dominion Bank (U.S.: NYSE)
CADs: Toronto-Dominion Bank (Canada: Toronto)
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rates Chart | Xe
Investment Categories: Large Cap Valuation/Dividend Growth/Bond Substitute
TD Bank Group - Investor Relations
Profit Snapshot: +$55.42
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4 Bought 30 TD at $54.28 (4/10/19 Post)
Average Cost per share this account = $51.16 (36 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 1/13/22 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $51.33.
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.89 per share (C$3.56 annually), last raised from $.79 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment
Toronto Dominion Bank Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield: Will vary with CAD/USD exchange rate.
If I assumed something that will not happen, a constant CAD/USD at .80, the C$3.56 would convert into US$2.848 which translates into a 5.57% yield at a US$51.16 cost basis.
Last Ex Dividend: 1/7/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 10/31/21): TD Bank Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2021 Results - Dec 2, 2021
All amounts are in Canadian Dollars.
E.P.S. = $2.04, adjusted to $2.09 (4 cents involves amortization of intangibles, a noncash charge)
Dividend Payout Ratio for this quarter = 37.8%
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 2.H. Pared TD-Sold 2+ shares at $70.97 (5/28/21 Post)(profit snapshot +$52.81, relatively low cost shares bought with dividends); Item # 2..N. Pared TD-Sold 1 at $60.54 (3/6/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.25); Item # 3.J. Sold 2 TD at $58.39 (1/31/21 Post) (profit snapshot = $6.99); Item # 1 Eliminated TD-Sold 53+ Shares at $58.31 (3/19/18 Post)(profit snapshot +$910.82); Item 4.A. Sold 54+ TD at $56.97 (11/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot +$718.78)-Dividend Growth And Large Cap Valuation Strategies: Bought Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) - South Gent | Seeking Alpha
TD Realized Gains to Date: $1,751.07
G. Started CULP-Bought 20 at $9.65; 5 at $9.23:
Quote: Culp Inc.
CULP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
"Culp, Inc. is one of the world’s largest marketers of mattress fabrics for bedding and upholstery fabrics for residential and commercial furniture. The company markets a variety of fabrics to its global customer base of leading bedding and furniture companies, including fabrics produced at Culp’s manufacturing facilities and fabrics sourced through other suppliers. Culp has manufacturing and sourcing capabilities located in the United States, Canada, China, Haiti, Turkey, and Vietnam."
This is a new name for me.
The company has been hurt recently by supply chain problems caused by the pandemic.
Investment Categories: Bond Substitute and Contrarian Value
10-Q for the F/Q ending 10/31/21
2021 Fiscal Year Annual Report (ending 5/2/21)
Average Cost Per Share: $9.49
Dividend: Quarterly at $.115 per share raised 5% from $.11 per share effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. This is year will be the 9th straight year of dividend increases.
CULP Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at AC = 4.85%, rounded up.
Last Ex Dividend: 1/10/22
Last Earnings Report (F/Q Ending 10/31/21): This is CULP's second fiscal quarter.
This quarter was negatively impacted by input cost inflation and supply chain problems which hopefully will improve as time goes by.
E.P.S. at $.07 per share, down from $.19 in the year ago quarter.
Net sales down 3% to $74.6M.
"financial position reflected total cash and investments of $36.6 million and no outstanding borrowings as of October 31, 2021"
Diluted shares as of 10/31/21:
Net cash per share as of 10/31/21: $2.97, rounded down.
Culp, inc (CULP) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
H. Added to SEM-Bought 5 at $28.16; 5 at 23.62; 5 at 22.75:
Dividend: Quarterly at $.125 per share. Just recently started after being "suspended" in 2015.
Last Ex Dividend: 11/4/21
Last Discussed: Item # 2.B. Bought 5 SEM at $34.8; 5 at $34.4; 5 at $34.08; 5 at $33.25; 5 at $32.5; 5 at $30.89; 5 at $29.95; 5 at $29.6 (12/10/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
SEM Analyst Estimates-MarketWatch In that post, I mentioned that the consensus E.P.S. forecast for 2022, as of 12/8/21, was $2.93 and at $3.55 for 2023. As of today, the consensus has fallen to $2.69 in 2022 and then $3.33.
The most recent decline in the stock price was due to an earnings warning for the 2021 4th quarter issued on 1/17/22, SEC Filing"
"Select Medical expects its net operating revenue for the year ended December 31, 2021 to be approximately $6,204 million. Select Medical expects earnings excluding interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, gain (loss) on early retirement of debt, stock compensation expense, gain (loss) on sale of businesses, and equity in earnings (losses) of unconsolidated subsidiaries, or Adjusted EBITDA, for the year ended December 31, 2021 to be approximately $947 million. Select Medical expects fully diluted earnings per common share for the year ended December 31, 2021 to be in the range of $2.90 to $2.92. . . During the fourth quarter however, we experienced, predominantly in our critical illness recovery hospital segment, a higher than expected use of agency clinical staff and higher than expected costs for agency in our hospitals. This unexpected significant increase in our labor costs had a detrimental effect on our Adjusted EBITDA and diluted earnings per common share for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2021."
The Stock Jocks took that information and decided that the cost inflation problem will be persistent until the end of days, rather than temporary, a conclusion reached for SEM that is not applied consistently to other companies negatively impacted currently by the pandemic. But how does the saying go, consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, though Emerson started that phrase with "foolish". Quote by Ralph Waldo Emerson: “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds ...”
I. Added to Lotto MAXN-Bought 1 at $12.68; 1 at $10.82:
Quote: Maxeon Solar Technologies Ltd.
Website: Home | Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd.
MAXN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Maxeon Investor Presentation Dec 2021 (pdf)
2020 Annual Report (products described starting at page 46)
Recent Material Press Release: Maxeon Solar Technologies to Supply TotalEnergies with up to 400MW of High-Efficiency Solar Modules for its Danish Fields Project in Texas - Nov 17, 2021
As of its last SEC Form 13G filing, Zhonghuan Singapore Investment and Development Pte. Ltd. owned 25.1% of the shares. SC 13D/A That is a private company based in Singapore.
Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket
As part of my now 20 year plan to consolidate positions, recently extended from 5 years to give me more time to refrain from doing it that some people would call procrastination, I eliminated my MAXN position in two taxable accounts before the price meltdown Item # 1.M. Eliminated MAXN in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 8 at $22.75 (11/11/21 Post)(profit snapshot for 25 shares = $68.01); Item # 1.F. Eliminated MAXN in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 15 at $18.75 (10/21/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.09); see also Item # 2.C. Pared MAXN in 3 Taxable Accounts by Selling Highest Cost Lots-2 at $20.1; 5 at $20.38; 10 at $20.6 (9/9/21 Post)
I kept a few shares in my Vanguard account after reducing that position. Item # 1.E. Pared MAXN in Vanguard Account-Sold 3 at $19.4 (10/21/21 Post)(profit snapshot for 5 shares = $4.08). I am now adding 1 share lots in that account and will not be buying in my other accounts.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.F. Bought 5 MAXN at $19.2; 5 at $18; 5 at $17.3; 5 at $15.73-Scwhab Taxable Account (5/8/21 Post) Those shares have been sold.
Recent Stock Offering: SEC Filing; Prospectus; Maxeon Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Ordinary Shares The offering price was $18 per share. Concurrent with that public offering, the company sold in a private placement 1.87M shares at $18 to an affiliate Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor.
Last Loss Report (Q/E 10/3/21): Maxeon Solar Technologies Announces Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results - Nov 17, 2021
Loss of $65.363M
Revenue: $220M
I have zero expertise in solar technologies. I reasonably anticipate that this company will continue to report losses for several years.
Over the very long term, MAXN will hopefully become successful before humans are burned to a crisp through a collective worldwide failure to deal with climate change.
J. Added $100 to FBIOX at $17.71; $50 at $15.61: This mutual fund is in a falling knife mode, as is the ETF IBB discussed in Item # 2.L. below.
Quote: FBIOX - Fidelity ® Select Biotechnology Portfolio
Sponsor's Website: FBIOX - Fidelity ® Select Biotechnology Portfolio
Fidelity® Select Biotechnology (FBIOX) Portfolio | Morningstar (currently rated at 2 stars)
Maximum Outlay Permitted for Risk Management: $2,000, currently at $600.
K. Added $50 to IBB at $138.48; $50 at $135.9; $50 at $132.11; $50 at $129; $50 at $123.7:
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.G Sold 1 IBB at $169.44 (9/3/21 Post)
Rated at 2 stars by Morningstar, down from a 3 star rating noted in the preceding linked post.
This sector has an historical tendency of being either feast or famine. The sector is now in the famine mode and has consequently perked my interest a tad.
Some Top Holdings as of 1/21/21:
Of those stocks, I currently have small ball positions in AMGN, GILD, VRTX, and INCY.
I will keep buying in $50 increments until I reach 10 shares. Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain.
L. Pared BMY-Sold 1 at $65.23:
Quote: Bristol Myers Squibb Co.
Bristol Myers Squibb: Investor Relations
This is small ball in the extreme. I recently bought 1 share at $54.74. Item # 2.J. Bought 1 BMY at $54.74-Fidelity Taxable Account (12/22/21 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$2.84
Average Cost Per Share this Account: $60.27 (18 shares)
 |
| Snapshot intraday on 1/10/22 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $60.38.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.54 per share, increased from $.49 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. Bristol Myers Squibb Announces Dividend Increase and Additional $15 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization
Yield at new AC = 3.58%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/6/22
I discussed the third quarter earnings report in the following liked post and have nothing further to add here: Item # 1.E. Added to BMY in Fidelity Account: Bought 1 at $60.34; 1 at $59.98; 1 at $59.5 (10/29/21 Post)
M. Added 1 DNNGY at $35.4:
Quote: Oersted A/S ADR
Renewable Energy Solutions to Fight Climate Change | Ørsted
I discussed this stock in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 1.H. Added to DNNGY-Bought 1 at $40.37; 2 at $38.65; 1 at $37.28 (1/20/22 Post) I am simply averaging down here and will continue to do so.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
