Economy:
CBO releases U.S. GDP growth, inflation estimates Expects 2% inflation by 2024. Projects 3.1% GDP growth in 2022.
Fed minutes: May 2022 - Monetary policy may move into restrictive territory (“Most participants judged that 50 basis point increases in the target range would likely be appropriate at the next couple of meetings” Minutes May 3-4, 2022 Meeting) The odds are at 100% that the FED will raise the FF by at least 50 basis points next month. That will bring the target range up to 1.25% to 1.5%. Another 50 basis point increase is expected in July.
New Homes Sales: -26.9% Y-O-Y in April
The average sales price was $570,300 or about 36,142,762.50 Rubles at the current exchange rate.
The government's second estimate for 1st quarter GDP was released today. Real GDP growth was revised down to -1.5% from -1.4 in the first estimate. Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), First Quarter 2022 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) The PCE price index increased 8%. Nominal GDP was up at a 6.5% annual rate. "Personal saving was $1.03 trillion (revised) in the first quarter, compared with $1.45 trillion (revised) in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 5.6 percent (revised) in the first quarter, compared with 7.9 percent (revised) in the fourth quarter."
Recession is ‘likely,’ former SEC chief economist says If the FED has no alternative to cure problematic inflation other than its monetary tools, then it will have to raise the federal funds ("FF) rate so high that a recession will probably occur.
The question are whether the FED will do so even if that approach is the only alternative and whether the main causes of problematic inflation fade away before the FED has to do anything drastic.
There is no factual basis for a recession caused by FF rate hikes off zero to what is currently anticipated by the market. Countdown to FOMC: CME FedWatch Tool Due to 14+ years of FED interest rate suppression to abnormally low rates, millions have been conditioned to believe that a 2.5% to 3% FF rate, an historically benign and low range, will send the economy into a recession.
CME FedWatch Tool- Probabilities for 2022 year end FF ranges:
A frequently overlooked beneficial impact from rising rates is that savers have more disposable income to spend, pay down debt and/or save.
The problems as I see it are not the currently forecasted increases in the FF rate but that those increases will have no meaningful impact on problematic inflation which restrains and distorts discretionary consumer spending and that the FED will end up having to raise the FF substantially higher than currently expected by the market.
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Earnings Reports- Owned Stocks:
AbbVie (ABBC) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. at $2.51; Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $3.16 with the consensus at $3.14; Adjustments to GAAP include non-cash intangible asset amortization expense of $1.565B after tax; Revenues up 4.1% to $13.538B;Humira = $4.736B; Skyrizi = $940M; Rinvoq = $465M; Botox Cosmetic = $641M; Botox Therapeutic = $614M; Imbruvica = $1.173B; Vraylar = 427M; Venclexta = $473M; Juvederm Collection = $410M; "Updates 2022 Adjusted Diluted EPS Guidance Range from $14.00 - $14.20 to $13.92 - $14.12, which Includes an Unfavorable Impact of $0.08 Per Share Related to Acquired IPR&D and Milestones Expense Incurred During the First Quarter 2022")
Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NTB) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $44.4M or $.89 per share with core E.P.S. at $.90, consensus at $.791 per Fidelity; NIM 2.03%, down from 2.09% in the 2021 first quarter; Core Efficiency ratio = 63.7%; NPA ratio = .5%; ROA = 1.2%; ROTE = 21.9%; Total capital Ratio = 20.9%; Tangible Book value per share = $15.30)
Biomarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP diluted E.P.S. = $.63; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.18 with the consensus at $.171 per Fidelity; GAAP included a $89M, net of tax, " on the sale to a third party of the Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher (PRV) we received from the FDA in connection with the U.S. approval of Voxzogo"; Revenues = $519.4M, up from $488M in the 2021 first quarter; Voxzogo was recently approved by the FDA and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) as "the only approved therapy for children with achondroplasia"; Expects to return to double digit revenues growth in 2022; Expects a CHMP opinion in mid-2022 on valoctocogene roxaparvovec, a gene therapy for severe hemophilia; the stock tanked in August 2020 when the FDA asked for more data on that treatment, BioMarin Receives Complete Response Letter (CRL) from FDA for Valoctocogene Roxaparvovec Gene Therapy for Severe Hemophilia A - Aug 19, 2020. The stock closed at $118.54 on 8/18/20 and at $76.72 the next day, so receiving EMA and FDA approval for this gene therapy is still viewed by the Stock Jocks as essential to a meaningfully higher price)
First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income = $27.726M or $.29 per share with the consensus at $.297 per Fidelity; NIM = 3.19%, down from 3.4% in the 2021 first quarter; Efficiency ratio = 59.47%; NPL Ratio = .54%: NPA Ratio = .55%; Coverage Ratio = 243.38%; Charge off ratio = .07%; ROTE = 14.52%; Total capital ratio = 14.7%; Tangible book value per share = $7.99)
First Financial (THFF) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $20.9M or $1.67 per share with the consensus at $1 per Fidelity; however, consensus may not have included a $4M legal settlement or about $.32 per share; the weighted average number of shares was 12.538M, down from 13.533M as of 3/31/21; NIM = 3.16%, down from 3.27% in the 2021 first quarter; NPL Ratio = .46%; Coverage Ratio = 312.6%; Charge off ratio = .18%; total capital ratio = 14.46%; Tangible Book Value per share = $34.71; several other ratios impacted positively by the legal settlement)
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $23.5M or $.54 per share with the consensus at $.468 per Fidelity; NIM = 2.99%, down from 3.29% in the 2021 first quarter; Efficiency ratio = 58.74%; NPL Ratio = .54%; ROA = 1.31%; ROE = 13.34%; Tangible book value per share = $11.55)
KKR Real Estate Finance (KREF) SEC Filed Press Release ("Reported Distributable Earnings of $29.8 million, or $0.47 per diluted share of common stock" with the consensus at $.442 per Fidelity)
Kraft Heinz (KHC) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP net income of $776M or $.63 per share; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.60 with the consensus at $.532 per Fidelity; Revenues - $6.045B)
Select Medical (SEM) SEC Filed Press Release (E.P.S. = $.37 with the consensus at $.275 per Fidelity, but down from $.82 in the 2021 first quarter; the 2021 first quarter income included $16.1M related to the recognition of payments received under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund; Revenue up 3.4% to $1.5995B; during the quarter, SEM repurchased "2,128,494 shares at a cost of approximately $51.7 million, or $24.28 per share, which includes transaction costs")
Thryv Holdings (THRY) SEC Filed Press Release (Diluted E.P.S. = $.88 with the consensus at $.656 per Fidelity; Revenue up 9.9% to $308.4M)
United Bankshares (UBSI) SEC Filed Press Release (Net income of $81.7M or $.60 in line with the consensus; NIM = 2.99%; Efficiency Ratio = 58.59%; NPL Ratio = .43%; NPA Ratio = .32%; Charge off ratio = Net benefit of $3.4M; ROA = 1.16%; ROE = 6.96%; ROTE = 11.63%; Total Capital Ratio = 15.1%)
Viatris (VTRS) SEC Filed Press Release (GAAP E.P.S. = $.33; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.93 with the consensus at $.826 per Fidelity; revenues = $4.178B, down 5%; Free cash flow = $1.074B and guides 2022 FCF to $2.5B to $2.9B; Paid down $840M in debt) As previously discussed, VTRS nosedived earlier this year when it announced that it was selling its biologics business which the Stock Jocks viewed as its growth engine. Viatris Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2021 Financial Results; Issues 2022 Financial Guidance; Completes Comprehensive Strategic Review; Unveils Plan to Reshape the Company for the Future; Announces Combination of its Biosimilars Portfolio with Biocon Biologics in Exchange for up to $3.335 Billion Representing an Attractive Multiple to Viatris of 16.5x the Company's Biosimilars 2022E Adjusted EBITDA(1), the First in a Series of Expected Initiatives Anticipated to Unlock up to an Additional $6 Billion in Pre-tax Proceeds by the End of 2023; Board of Directors Authorizes a Share Repurchase Program of up to $1 Billion, Maintaining Company Commitment to Return Capital to Shareholders
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New Evidence Shows How Russian Soldiers Executed Men in Bucha - The New York Times Video captured Russian soldiers leading a group of Ukrainians to a courtyard where they would be executed a few moments later. A video captured the dead bodies. Eight eyewitness accounts support the war crime charge.
The Russian unit responsible for many of the war crimes and crimes against humanity in Bucha has been identified as the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade. ‘Such Bad Guys Will Come’: How One Russian Brigade Terrorized Bucha - The New York Times ("Over the next 18 days, in just one corner of this Kyiv suburb where the brigade took control, 12 people were killed, including all of the inhabitants of six houses where the soldiers set up camp"); New Evidence Shows How Russian Soldiers Executed Men in Bucha - The New York Times
The brigade was awarded an honorary title by Putin last month for its actions in Ukraine.
Russian forces failed to take Kharkiv notwithstanding the indiscriminate use of cluster bombs to terrorize and murder Ukrainian civilians which is how Russia is saving Ukrainians from the "Nazis". The Russian commander in charge of that failed effort has been fired by Putin Forced From Kharkiv, Russian Troops Regroup and Dig In - The New York Times ("As they retreated, the Russians abandoned dozens of their own dead, amid burned out tanks and armor and smashed trenches across the undulating hills. . .A dead Russian soldier still lay on the grounds of a burned out school in Vilkhivka, his chest bare, his body swollen and blackened."); Kharkiv: Russian general who oversaw atrocities in Syria led cluster bomb attacks in Ukraine; Vladimir Putin suspends two generals after Kharkiv failure and sinking of Moskva - World News - Mirror Online
Russia is still close enough to Kharkiv to continue shelling civilians structures indiscriminately however. Surviving the Siege of Kharkiv - The New York Times
Putin is looking to add 40+ year old males to the Russia's army as casualties mount which indicates how well the Russian invasion is "going to plan". Struggling in Ukraine, Russia paves way to sign up over-40s for army | Reuters
Russia has permanently banned 963 Americans from entering Russia. The list includes several dead Americans including John McCain. Morgan Freeman and deceased senator John McCain among Americans banned from Russia-Sky News All Americans, other than diplomats, need to permanently bar themselves from entering Russia.
Russia cuts off natural gas exports to Finland in a symbolic move-NPR Europe needs to free itself as quickly as possible from any dependence on Russian oil and natural gas as a critical matter of national security.
Denmark offers Ukraine Harpoon missiles to fight Russia’s Black Sea blockade - The Washington Post
Opinion | Putin Rules Russia Like an Asylum - The New York Times (refers to an article written by Valeriya Novodvorskaya- РОССИЯ №6 - where she noted that Russians have lived since the 16th century "according to the laws of manic depressive psychosis")
The anti-democracy party nominated the Trumpster state senator Doug Mastriano as its candidate for Pennsylvania's governor. Doug Mastriano is the new face of the Republican Party’s extremist wing Mastriano first came to my attention when he tried to cancel the certified election results in PA that had Biden beating Trump by over 80,000 votes. Mastriano wanted the republican dominated state legislature to nominate presidential electors instead of the voters. Doug Mastriano’s Pa. victory could give 2020 denier oversight of 2024-The Washington Post Mastriano campaigned at QAnon sponsored event. Doug Mastriano speaks at event featuring conspiracy theories about QAnon, 9/11, JFK, Hitler; QAnon | Meaning, Beliefs, & Conspiracy Theory | Britannica He sure sounds like a Trump endorsed candidate. He wrote a Master's thesis in 2001 where he predicted that the U.S. military would have to save the country 2018 from the left-wing who was backed militarily by the United Nations and the European Union. Doug Mastriano's 2001 thesis warned of left-wing ‘Hitlerian Putsch’ - The Washington Post
Witnesses say Donald Trump spoke approvingly of 'hang Mike Pence' chant - CNN Video; Trump Said to Have Reacted Approvingly to Jan. 6 Chants About Hanging Pence - The New York Times; Jan. 6 panel told Trump indicated support for hanging Mike Pence - The Washington Post
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1. Corporate Bonds and Treasuries:
Intermediate and longer term treasury yields have been trending down starting on 5/10/22.
The 6 month and 1 year treasury bills have adjusted to reflect a likely 50 basis point increase in the FF rate in June and July.
The rally in bond prices have improved my YTD total return. The Fidelity account is now down 2.47% YTD as of yesterday's close.
A. Bought 2 Realty Income 3% SU Maturing on 1/15/27 at a Total Cost of 97.596:
FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus linked)
Issuer: Realty Income Corp. (O)
I own the common stock only in a Roth IRA account, initiating a position recently in the 60s. I eliminated my position in a taxable account back in 2016 Item # 1. Sold 100 Realty Income at $52.37 -Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 1/21/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $1,579.5)-Item # 6 Bought: 100 Realty Income (O) at $36.96 (12/10/13 Post)
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
YTM at TC (includes $1 per bond commission) = 3.567%
Current Yield at TC = 3.07%, rounded down
I have 1 previous round-trip trade for this bond.
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Item # 1.A. Bought 2 Realty Income 3% SU Maturing on 1/15/27 at a TC of 95.926 (5/20/17 Post)
B. Bought 2 Kroger 2.65% SU Bonds Maturing on 10/15/26 at a Total Cost of 96.885:
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FINRA Page: Bond Detail (prospectus not linked)
Issuer: Kroger Co. (KR)
Last Earnings Report (F/Q Ending 1/29/22): SEC Filing
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB
YTM at TC = 3.402%
Current Yield at TC = 2.74%, rounded up.
I have 1 prior round-trip for this bond:
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Most of the Kroger SU bonds that I have owned were held to maturity.
C. Bought 1 Treasury 1.375% Coupon Maturing on 8/21/23 at 99:
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YTM at TC = 2.109%
Current Yield at TC = 1.39%
D. Bought 1 Treasury 1.25% Coupon Maturing on 7/31/23 at 98.953:
%201.25%25%207:31:23%20.png)
YTM at TC = 2.07%
Current Yield at TC = 1.263%
2. Small Ball:
Baseball analogy-Small ball (baseball)-Wikipedia
The underlying rationale for the small ball trading strategy is risk mitigation in what I view as a dicey stock market whose parabolic rise has been fueled by (1) unprecedented money creation; (2) central bank suppression of interest rates far below the inflation rate through extraordinarily abnormal monetary policies continued now for over 14 years; (3) extreme levels of U.S. government deficit spending, and (4) spending rapidly increasing amounts of borrowed money by U.S. consumers. Possibly I need to add spending vast sums of borrowed money by publicly traded companies to buy back stock at elevated price levels.
Small Ball Rules:
(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; or has to lower my average cost per share;
(2) Purchases are made in small lots, using commission-free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
The corollary is to buy the dips, particularly during extreme volatility events that would be associated with major declines in stocks.
Another aspect is selling fractional shares bought with dividends in order to harvest the original dividend amount plus a small profit on the shares. Prior to the recent downdraft, I was doing that regularly having turned off the dividend reinvestment option in virtually all stocks that I own. I am now starting to turn back on the dividend reinvestment option.
The primary known threat to the stock market are potentially problematic inflation that provokes central banks to increase interest rates to a level that would cause a recession.
The primary erroneous assumption is that the extraordinary stimulus measures outlined above can continue indefinitely or that the economy will experience robust growth when they have to be withdrawn or significantly curtailed.
Longer term, and previously discussed here in more detail, failed U.S. treasury auctions and a collapse in the USD's value, precipitating a depression with no way out through government deficit spending, are the primary threats.
History this account:
Quote: Piedmont Office Realty Trust Inc. Cl A (PDM)
Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc- Investor Relations
Debt as of 3/31/22:
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Eliminated in this Account: Item # 1.A. Eliminated PDM in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $18.71 and 34+ at $18 (12/31/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $235.88)
Buy Discussions: Item # 3.K. Started PDM in Vanguard Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $11.45 (10/7/20 Post); Item # 1.H. Added to PDM in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $13.6; 5 at $13.3; 5 at $12.5; 5 at $12.3; 5 at $11.69; 5 at $11.4 and 10 at $10.30 (10/31/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, last raised from $.20 in 2014.
Yield at $14.92: 5.63%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/26/22 (shortly after purchase)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release
"Core Funds From Operations ("Core FFO") was $0.51 per diluted share for the quarter ended March 31, 2022, a 6% increase compared to $0.48 per diluted share for the quarter ended March 31, 2021."
"The portfolio increased to 87% leased as of March 31, 2022, up from 85.5% as of December 31, 2021."
The Company completed the previously announced sale of 225 & 235 Presidential Way in Boston for $129 million and recognized a gain of approximately $49 million which is included in its statement of income for the first quarter of 2022."
Net income to Core FFO Calculation:
The core FFO number per share of $.51 is not a cash available for distribution (CAD) number. The company does provide data to calculate CAD, including $18.947M in maintenance expenditures and $2.577M in non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention. I calculated the CAD per share number at $.31, rounded down which comfortably exceeds the quarterly dividend of $.21. This highlights how much difference there can be between FFO and CAD per share numbers.
When calculating FFO from net income, the $50.673M gain from the sale of real estate is properly added back to net income.
Note that only "amortization of lease-related costs" is added back to net income. Compare that with the BDN discussion above.
2022 Guidance: Core FFO per share $1.99-$2.07
Current Position: 10 shares
Maximum position: 100 shares
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.H. Eliminated PDM- Sold 10 at $17.95 in Fidelity Account and 10 at $18.02 in Vanguard Taxable Account (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $128.95)
Quote SLR Investment (formerly known as Solar Capital) - a BDC
SLRC recently completed the acquisition of SLR Senior Investment Corporation (SUNS). SLR Investment Corp. Completes Merger with SLR Senior (former SUNS shareholders will receive 0.7796 shares of SLRC for each share of SUNS based on the final exchange ratio, subject to payment of cash in lieu of fractional shares") I owned a few shares of SUNS and sold all of them shortly before the merger was consummated. I have now bought at a lower price the SLRC shares that I would have received in exchange for my SUNS shares.
Subsequent to the acquisition, SLRC went from a quarterly dividend of $.41 per share to a monthly dividend of $0.136667 which is no change in the total amount. SUNS had paid a monthly dividend.
Website: Home
Management: External
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/22 (investments described starting at page 7; debt described starting at page 27 which does not include SUNS debt which was assumed on 4/1/22)
2021 Annual Report (risk factors summarized starting at page 28 and ending at page 70)
Buy Discussions: Item # 1 Added 85 SLRC - Bought 75 at $17.45; 10 at $17.59 (11/12/20 Post); Item #1.F. Restarted SLRC-Bought 5 at $16.4; 5 at $16.1; 5 at $15.7 (7/30/20 Post)
Average cost per share after adds = $16.31 (110 Shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.136667 ($1.64 annually)
SLRC Dividend History | Nasdaq
Since the current dividend is not covered by NII, a dividend cut would be prudent IMO unless coverage is soon restored. Paying out more than net income will reduce net asset value per share and cash that could have been invested to generate income.
As a result of the merger, the base management fee paid to the external management company was reduced from 1.75% to 1.5% of gross assets "to 200% of SLRC’s total net assets and SLRC retained the annual base management fee payable by SLRC to SCP of 1.00% on gross assets that exceed 200% of SLRC’s total net assets." That will help some on increasing NII. Gross assets includes securities bought with debt. Note that there is always an incentive for the external manager to increase gross assets through equity offerings and new debt irrespective of how well the assets perform.
Yield at new AC per share = 10.05% with the caveat that a dividend cut is possible.
Last Ex Dividend: 5/18/22
Net Asset value per share history:
3/31/22: $19.56
12/31/21: $19.93
12/31/20: $20.16
9/30/20: $20.14 10-Q
12/31/19: $21.44
12/31/18: $21.75
12/31/17: $21.81
12/31/16: $21.74
12/31/15: $20.79
12/31/14: $22.05
12/31/13: $22.50
12/31/12: $22.70
12/31/11: $22.02
Initial Public Offering: Prospectus February 2010, priced to the public at $18.5 and at $17.205 to the underwriters
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SLR Investment (SLRC) SEC Filed Press Release
Excluding expenses related to this merger, SLRC reported NII per share of $.35 with the consensus at $.37;
That NII does not cover the dividend;
Net asset value per share = $19.56;
"As of March 31, 2022, on a fair value basis 98.3%, of the Company’s portfolio was performing"
"At March 31, 2022, 99.4% of the Company’s Comprehensive Investment Portfolio was invested in senior secured loans, comprised of 95.1% first lien senior secured loans and approximately 4.3% second lien senior secured loans, of which 1.4% were second lien cash flow loans and 2.9% were second lien asset-based loans."
"The weighted average yield at fair value of all income-producing investments in the Comprehensive Portfolio was 10.0% at March 31, 2022."
Net debt-to-equity: .98
Company risk ratings for investments:
Investment income contributed by equipment leasing = 10.1% or $3.3M
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 3.C. Sold 60 SLRC at $21.56 (10/17/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $37.14); Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 3/13/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (noting dividend coverage issue being present for 2 years prior to 2016)
If I had kept the shares sold on 9/27/18 through 5/20/22, the average annual total return would have been -.40%. DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel The BDC sector is one where many individual investors become infatuated with the current yield, the shining object that blinds, rather than total return.
SLRC Realized Gains to Date: $100.07
Consider to Pare: >$18
Consider to Buy More (5 share lots): <$14
Goal: Any total return in excess of dividend payments before any ROC adjustment to the tax cost basis.
C. Added to CPF- Bought 5 at $23.7; 5 at $23.15:
Quote: Central Pacific Financial Corp.
"Central Pacific Financial Corp. is a Hawaii-based bank holding company with approximately $7.30 billion in assets as of March 31, 2022. Central Pacific Bank, its primary subsidiary, operates 30 branches and 65 ATMs in the state of Hawaii."
Owned Debt Securities as of 3/31/22 compared to 12/31/21:
 |
| 10-Q page 19 |
With the rise in interest rates during the first quarter, debt securities owned by banks went down in price. Unrealized gains were either diminished or turned into unrealized losses. It will take time for vintage lower yielding securities to mature that will allow banks to reinvest the proceeds into higher yielding ones thereby increasing interest income over time.
Central Pacific Financial Corp. Analyst Estimates
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. Bought 5 CPF at $27.59 (12/3/21 Post)
Average cost per share = $24.81 (15 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 5/24/22 after second add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually)
Yield at AC per share = 4.19%
Next Ex Dividend: Tomorrow, 5/27/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Central Pacific Financial (CPF) SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental
Net income of $19.4M or $.70 per share with the consensus at $.557 per Fidelity;
Recorded a $3.8M credit to the provision for credit losses;
NIM = 2.97%, down from 3.19% in the 2021 first quarter;
Efficiency ratio = 63.16%;
NPA Ratio = .07%;
Coverage Ratio = 1,213.53%;
ROA = 1.06%;
ROE = 14.44%;
Total Risk Based Capital Ratio = 14.2%;
Board declared regular quarterly dividend of $.26 per share
D. Added to FPF - Bought 5 at $18.82:
Quote: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Overview
Sponsor's Website: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF)
Last SEC Filed Report on Holdings (period ending 1/31/22)
Weighted Average effective duration: 4.05 years as of 4/30/22
Leveraged: Substantial at 32.6% as of 5/20/22
Last Discussed: Item # 4.G. Added 5 FPF at $20.44; 4 at $20.15 (5/5/22 Post)
Investment category: Monthly Income Generation
Dividend: Monthly at $.1275 ($1.53 annually)
Average cost per share: $21.12 (117+ shares)
Yield at AC = 7.24%
E. Restarted BDN in Schwab Taxable - Bought 10 at $10.79:
History this Account:
Quote: Brandywine Realty (BDN)
BDN "is one of the largest, publicly traded, full-service, integrated real estate companies in the United States with a core focus in the Philadelphia, Austin and Washington, D.C. markets. Organized as a real estate investment trust (REIT), we own, develop, lease and manage an urban, town center and transit-oriented portfolio comprising 168 properties and 23.1 million square feet as of March 31, 2022 which excludes assets held for sale."
Website: Full-Service Real Estate Company | Brandywine Realty Trust
Our Properties | Brandywine Realty Trust
The most important project in development is known as Schuylkill Yards.
Debt as of 3/31/22: Most of the debt is in SU notes that mature between 2023 and 2027 which could be problematic as to refinancing costs.
The most important reason IMO for the downdraft in equity REIT stock prices is the anticipated reduction in cash flow resulting from refinancing debt at higher coupons. For office REITs like BDN, other major concerns include occupancy given the work-at-home trend substantially initiated with the pandemic, potential lease concessions to induce new tenants or to keep existing one, and significant routine maintenance costs.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Elimination: Item # 2.F. Eliminated BDN - Sold 15+ at $13.51 in Schwab Account and 20 at $13.5 in Schwab Account (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $159.29)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.A. Restarted BDN in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $9.27; 5 at $8.7; 5 at $7.79 (4/11/20 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.19 ($.76 annually), last raised from $.18 effective for the 2018 first quarter payment. The quarterly penny rate was slashed from $.44 paid in 2008 to $.10 per share effective for the 2009 second quarter payment. Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha I doubt the quarterly dividend will return to $.44 per share prior to 2040 and maybe never.
Brandywine Realty Trust Announces Tax Characteristics of Its 2021 Distributions (ROC at 14.9%)
Yield at $10.79: 7.04%
Next Ex Dividend: 7/5/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release
FFO = $60.311M, up from $60.218M in the 2021 first quarter
FFO per share = $.35, unchanged from the 2021 first quarter
2022 FFO per share guidance: $1.37 to $1.54
Occupancy: 89.4% occupied and 92.4% leased
"Rental rate mark-to-market: Increased 20.4% on an accrual basis and 12.9% on a cash basis"
BDN does not provide the most relevant cash flow number which is funds available for distribution (FAD or CAD) which will be substantially lower than FFO for office REITs. I consequently disregard BDN's claim that the dividend payout ratio was just 54.3% using its FFO calculation. That cash flow calculation is not the relevant one for an office REIT'S dividend coverage.
I suspect that the quarterly dividend of $.19 is covered by CAD, but I do not have enough information to know for sure, one way or the other. A CAD calculation would reduce FFO by the non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention and routine maintenance costs.
In the net income to FFO calculation shown in the previous snapshot, I am suspicious of the $6.994M add back to net income for "Leasing costs including acquired intangibles" to the extent cash leasing costs are included in that number. Funds From Operations (FFO); Cash Available for Distribution (CAD) Definition
The mid-point in the 2022 FFO per share guidance is $1.455 which would result in a 7.42 P/FFO at $10.79 which "appears" cheap. The recent price range IMO reflects a consensus opinion that the FFO numbers provided by BDN are not the ones investors are using in valuing the company.
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.K. Sold 1+ BDN at $13.75-All Shares Bought with Dividends in Fidelity Taxable (5/16/21 Post)($3.3); Item # 1.D. Sold 50 BDN at $12.9 in Schwab Taxable Account (3/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.72); Item # 2.B. Sold 101+ BDN at $15.33 (11/9/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.4); Item # 7 Sold 158+ BDN at $15.28 (5/24/14 Post)(profit snapshot = $72.31); Item # 2 Sold 100 BDN at $12.38-ROTH IRA (profit snapshot = $100.5)
Goal: 2% annual return on the shares + the dividend.
Current Position: 10 shares
Maximum Position: 100 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain.
I become just a little bit interested in this stock at its current price or lower. While the REIT is internally managed, I do not see an argument that it is being successfully managed for the benefit of shareholders.
The ten year average annual total return (dividends reinvested) starting on 5/20/12 through 5/20/22 was +4.37%. DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel The stock price is lower with the positive return generated by the dividend payments.
F. Added to NYCB in Vanguard Taxable - Bought 10 at $8.89; 10 at $9.3:
Quote: New York Community Bancorp Inc. (NYCB)
NYCB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed:
Item # 4.L. Added to NYCB in Vanguard Taxable Account - Bought 10 at $9.61 (5/5/22 Post);
Item # 3 Bought 100 NYCB in Vanguard Taxable Account at $10.52 (4/24/22 Post) I discussed the 2022 first quarter earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add. SEC Filed Press Release
New Average cost per share this account: $10.23 (130 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share ($.68 annually)
Yield at $10.23 = 6.65%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/6/22
In this account, I owned 120 shares on the ex dividend date and received a $20.4 dividend payment on 5/19/22:
The last 10 share purchase was made after the ex dividend date.
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Eliminated NYCB in Fidelity Account-Sold 46+ shares at $12.31 (3/10/19 Post); South Gent's Comment Blog # 5: Sold 50 NYCB at $15.58 (11/16/16 Comment); Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 10/19/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha: Item # 1 Sold 150 NYCB at $18.57 (profit snapshot = $999.66); Item # 2.D. Sold 50 NYB at $14.25 (3/25/13 Post); Item # 7 Sold 50 NYB at $17.51 (7/28/2010 Post)(profit snapshot +$331.03)
NYCB Trading Profits to Date: $1,470.16
Starting around 2004, when the price topped out near $34, NYCB has not been a good total return vehicle for a long term buy and hold investor. Starting in 2008, the stock has moved mostly in a narrow channel between $10 to $18 and is currently below where it was on 3/8/2009 when the S & P 500 index closed near 756. Profitable trades could have been made in that channel but holding for a price much higher than $15 after buying near the lower end of the channel bore a substantial risk that unrealized gains would evaporate. The more recent toppy range was between $13 ant $14.
My Consider to Eliminate and goal in this account: >$13/2% annual profit on the shares + dividends.
Total Annual Average Total Return Starting on 1/1/2004 through 3/20/22 = +.27% DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
And high ranking NYCB employees are rewarded for the failure summarized succinctly in that long term performance number
G. Bought 5 SWM at $25.35:
Quote: Schweitzer-Mauduit International Inc. (SWM)
SWM describes itself as a "leading global performance materials company" that manufactures "highly engineered films, adhesive tapes, foams, nets, nonwovens, and papers are designed and manufactured using resins, polymers, and natural fibers for a variety of industries and specialty applications."
The business is currently divided into two segments:
"The AMS segment offers design and manufacturing solutions for the healthcare, construction, industrial, transportation and filtration end-markets. We manufacture resin-based rolled goods such as nets, films and meltblown materials, bonding products and adhesive components, along with providing adhesives and other coating solutions and converting services for our customers."
"The EP segment primarily serves the tobacco industry with production of various cigarette papers and reconstituted tobacco products ("Recon"). The EP segment also produces non-tobacco papers for premium applications, such as energy storage and industrial commodity paper grades."
SWM is in the process of acquiring Neenah Papers, a company "focused on growing in filtration media, specialty coatings, engineered materials and imaging & packaging" and whose materials "are in various products used everyday, such as transportation and water filters, premium packaging of spirits, technology and beauty products, industrial labels, tapes and abrasives, and digital printing for high-end apparel." SWM and Neenah to Combine in All-Stock Transaction to Create a ~$3 Billion Global Leader in Specialty Materials | Business Wire The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2022.
SWM completed the acquisition of Scapa Group in April 2021. SWM International Completes Acquisition of Scapa Group Plc
Schweitzer-Mauduit International, Inc. - Investor Relations
SWM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (As of 5/24/22, average E.P.S. estimate for 2022 was $3.93 and at $4.56 for 2023)
1 year Chart as of 5/25/22 Close: Bear Market Trend, possible bottoming near current price level.
I have not previously discussed this stock. My last round-trip was a 5 share lot sold at $28.5:
 |
| 2022 SWM 5 Shares +$22.47 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.44 per share ($1.76 annually)
Yield at $25.35 = 6.94%
Last Ex Dividend: 5/19/22 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release
"GAAP EPS of $0.05, down from $0.68; Adjusted EPS of $0.89, versus $1.02"
Adjustments to GAAP: $.46 relates to acquisitions and the remainder to restructuring costs and impairments
"Sales increased 41% to $406.8 million; organic sales growth of 5% on top of strong prior year quarter, pricing actions effective and sales momentum expected to continue"
"Company affirms 2022 financial outlook for Adjusted EPS of $3.50 to $3.95 and year-over-year Adjusted EBITDA growth of 20% to 30%"
H. Added to PYPL - Bought $50 at $79.7:
Quote: PayPal Holdings Inc.
52 week high at $310.16
When the high multiple stocks started to implode this year, the reason given was frequently that earnings and revenue growth had slowed down. That would be the case for PYPL but that is not an adequate explanation.
IMO, those companies including PYPL would never meet the clearly excessive predictions for growth that would be necessary to justify the multiples anywhere near their recent 52 week highs.
For as long as the thundering herd continued to take the prices higher, the Stock Jocks did not care about the clearly excessive multiples and were willing to overlook the huge disparity between GAAP and Non-GAAP earnings as these companies heaped stock compensation on their employees.
The truth of the matter is that the stocks were excessively valued even if the investor was willing to accept the non-GAAP numbers which, given the size of the stock compensation per share, would not be prudent or reasonable.
I discussed this issue when I eliminated my Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) position at $310.73. Item # 2.A. Eliminated CRM - Sold 1.879 Shares at $310.73 (12/10/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $184.45). I noted that CRM had just reported quarterly earnings of $.47 per share using GAAP accounting and $1.27 after excluding share based compensation. Why would I ignore $.81 per share in stock compensation for just 1 quarter? I am not willing to do so. Even if I was willing to take that leap into craziness, which I can only do in very small and meaningless doses, and was willing to accept the non-GAAP E.P.S. number, I could not justify the P/E multiple at a $310.73. When buying CRM shares in small dollar lots, I noted that each price paid was viewed as excessive using traditional and time tested valuation measures, but I was just running with the thundering herd for a short period with a clearly unimportant cash commitment to the CRM position.
PYPL was ridiculously overvalued at its 52 week high. It is now gradually approaching a rationally based price range IMO.
PYPL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Average cost per share: $101.3 (5+ shares)
Last Discussed: Item # 4.E. Added to PYPL - Bought $50 at $94.48; $50 at $86.63 (5/5/22 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing further to add here. SEC Filed Press Release
Purchase Restriction: I will continue with $50 purchases until the price falls below $70, when I will throw caution to the wind and up the purchases to 1 share at a time.
I. Added to DNNGY - Bought 1 at $32.65; 2 at $31.98:
Quotes:
USD: Oersted A/S ADR
DKK: Oersted A/S (Denmark: OMX)
DKK to USD -Danish Krone to US Dollars
Website: Renewable Energy Solutions to Fight Climate Change | Ørsted
Green Energy Solutions | Ørsted
Ørsted - Q1 2022 - Investor presentation.pdf
Ørsted’s renewable-energy transformation | McKinsey
Megawatts in generation:
The investment case for DNNGY IMO primarily involves Europe moving rapidly away from using Russia's natural gas as an energy source.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.F. Bought 2 DNNGY at $32.97 (3/10/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post.
Average Cost per share: $38.53 (17 shares)
Dividend: Annual. The last payment was at $.6056 per share.
Yield at $38.53: 1.57%
Last Ex Dividend: 4/11/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): Interim report for the first three months of 2022: Strong operational and financial results and continued strategic progress with full year EBITDA guidance reiterated
J. Added to PARA in Fidelity Account - Bought 2 at $27.42:
Quote: Paramount Global Cl B
PARA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
This company was previously known as ViacomCBS and traded then under the VIAC symbol.
On 5/17/22, PARA rose +$4.3 or 15.35% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its position in a 13-F filing amounting to $2.6B:
SEC FORM 13-F Information Table
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.P. Pared PARA in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $38.55; 7 at $38.1 (3/31/22 Post); Item # 2.H. Pared PARA in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $35.46 (3/24/22 Post) I am in a consider to sell mode at >$35 and consider to buy mode at <$30.
Investment Category: Contrarian Value
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share, last raised from $.18 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment. PARA Dividend History
Average cost per share this account = $31.83 (52+ shares)
Yield at AC this account = 3.02%, rounded up.
Next Ex Dividend: 6/14/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release
The Stock Jocks had a negative reaction to this report.
GAAP E.P.S. from continuing operations =$.58
GAAP E.P.S. = $.64 (6 cents from discontinued operation)
Non-GAAP E.P.S. continuing operations = $.60
Consensus at $.516
Grew Paramount+ streaming subscribers 6.8+M in the quarter, bringing the total to over 62M.
Cost of new programming for Paramount+ is negatively impacting profits (1st Q revenue up 82% to $1.009B but expenses up 107% to $1.545B) I agree with what PARA is doing here.
Revenues = $7.328B
K. Added to BOTZ - Bought 1 at $22; 1 at $21.41:
Quote: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF Overview
Sponsor's Website: Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF
Expense Ratio = .68%
Last Discussed: Item # 4.J. Added to BOTZ- Bought 2 at $24.88; 2 at $24 (5/5/22 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.J. Sold 5 BOTZ at $39.02 (10/22/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $74.52)
Of the top 10 holdings, I have only a small ball position in ABB.
Average cost per share = $24.83 (9 shares)
L. Added to EAF - Bought 5 at $8.04:
Quote: GrafTech International Ltd.
"GrafTech International Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of high-quality graphite electrode products essential to the production of electric arc furnace steel and other ferrous and non-ferrous metals. The Company has a competitive portfolio of low-cost, ultra-high power graphite electrode manufacturing facilities, including three of the highest capacity facilities in the world. We are the only large-scale graphite electrode producer that is substantially vertically integrated into petroleum needle coke, a key raw material for graphite electrode manufacturing. This unique position provides competitive advantages in product quality and cost."
EAF Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
The Stock Jocks are discounting the TTM earnings due to the expiration of the long term agreements (LTA) and the substantially lower spot prices that currently prevail. The 2021 4th quarter LTA price for graphite electrodes was $9,400 per ton with the average spot price during that quarter at $5,000 which was up 10% from the prior quarter.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.B. Bought 10 EAF at $10.1; 5 at $9.76 (2/24/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post.
Average cost per share: $9.5 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.01 per share, slashed from $.085 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. I agree with the dividend cut and the use of cash flow to pay down debt.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22): SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. at $.47, up from $.37 in the 2021 first quarter.
Adjusted non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.48
"Sales volume of 43 thousand metric tons ("MT") increased 16% compared to the first quarter of 2021"
Revenues = $366.245M
"Generated cash flow from operating activities of $146 million, a 20% increase compared to the first quarter of 2021"
Adjusted free cash flow of $129.904M
"Strengthened the balance sheet further by reducing debt by $70 million"
GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool (Average spot price rose 19% in the 2022 first quarter compared to the 2021 4th quarter; "first quarter shipments were comprised of 25,000 metric tons of graphite electrodes under our LTAs at an average price of nearly $9,600 per metric ton and 18,000 metric tons of non-LTA sales at an average price of just over $6,000 per metric ton.")
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.F. Eliminated EAF Again- Sold 10 at $11.51 (12/31/21 Post); Item # 1.R. Eliminated EAF-Sold 53+ at $12.37 (2/13/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $110.97); Item # 1.Q. Pared EAF-Sold 25 at $11.8 (1/16/21 Post); Item # 3.I. Eliminated EAF in Fidelity taxable account-Sold 46+ at $9.94 (1/1/21 Post); Item # 2.B. Sold 27 EAF at $11.2 (2/12/20 Post); Item #3.C. Sold 25 at $14.48 (12/18/19 Post); Item # 2.A. Sold 110 EAF at $13.48 (11/20/19 Post)
EAF Realized Gains to Date: $380.07
M. Added to ETSY - Bought $50 at $84.29; $50 at $77.68: $50 at $70.58:
ETSY's price decline justifiably IMO accelerated after a disappointing 2022 first quarter report and future guidance. I discussed that report here: Item # 4.D. Added to ETSY - Bought $50 at $107.7; $50 at $97.8 (5/5/22 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 1.B. Sold 1 ETSY at $213.2 (9/24/21 Post)
N. Added to SLG - Bought 1 at $62.65; 1 at $59.95:
Quote: SL Green Realty Corp.
SL Green Realty Corp Profile | Reuters
SL Green Realty Corp Key Developments | Reuters
SL Green Realty Corp Key Metrics | Reuters
Investment category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 1.H. Bought 1 SLG at $69.9 (2/10/22 Post) I discussed the 2021 4th quarter report in that post.
Average cost per share: $67.66 (8 shares)
Dividend: Monthly at $.3033 ($3.6396 annually)
Yield at $67.55 = 5.38%
Next Ex Dividend: Tomorrow, 5/27/22
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/22):
SL Green Realty (SLG) SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
FFO per share = $1.65, down from $1.73 in the 2021 first quarter;
"Manhattan same-store office occupancy was 92.7% as of March 31, 2022, inclusive of leases signed but not yet commenced. The Company's target is to increase Manhattan same-store office occupancy, inclusive of leases signed but not yet commenced, to 94.3% by December 31, 2022";
Revenues = $187.964M;
Dividend Payout Ratio using Funds Available for Distribution = 75.1%, page 6 of the Supplemental filing
O. Added to CALF - Bought 1 at $37.52; 2 at $36.48:
Quote: Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF Overview
Sponsor's website: CALF | Pacer ETFs
Expense ratio = .59%
Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF (CALF)-Morningstar (currently rated 5 stars)
This fund screens the S&P SmallCap 600 index for 100 companies that have the highest free cash flow yield. I view free cash flow yield and free cash flow as valid components for stock selections. The primary caveat is that those valuation measures may only be temporarily high particularly for highly cyclical companies.
Average cost per share = $41.36 (14 shares)
YTD Total Returns through 5/24/22 close: Small cap stocks are going down with the overall market.
CALF Performance -17.02%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Performance -20.92%
So far this year, an ETF using a low volatility factor for stock selection is doing better:
iShares MSCI USA Small Cap Minimum Volatility Factor ETF (SMMV) -12.27%.
The Fidelity® Small Cap Value (FCPVX) mutual fund is down -11.84% which is pretty good compared to IWM.
I own a few FCPVX shares.
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| FCPVX as of 5/25/22 close |
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.H. Added to CALF - Bought 1 at $41.72 (8/6/21 Post)
P. Added to FMAGX - Bought $50 at $11:
Quote: FMAGX | Fidelity Magellan Fund Overview
Expense ratio = .79%
Rated at 3 stars by Morningstar
Standard Deviation = 19.51 as of 4/30/22
I pay some attention to SD when managing my portfolio. The general idea is to keep the SD at less than 5%. (see, e.g. Risk Adjusted Total Return 1 Year (11/13/22 Post): SD at 1.84)
Dividend History: Mostly sourced from capital gains with no ordinary dividend paid since 2019.
The FMAGX portfolio looks like a closet growth ETF index fund. When I looked at the top 25 holdings, I decided to compare the FMAGX annual average returns to the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG). The data is through the 3/20/22 close. Fidelity® Magellan® (FMAGX) Performance
YTD: VUG -28.67%; FMAGX at -25.78%
The "growth" stocks have been hit harder than year than value stocks.
1 Year: VUG at -13.75%; FMAGX at -9.92%
5 Years: VUG +13.79%; FMAGX at +11.37%
10 Years: VUG at +14.7%; FMAGX at +13.67%
15 Years: VUG at +10.32%; FMAGX at +7.36%; SPY + 8.47%;
Since this fund's heydey under Peter Lynch's management, my conclusion is simply that Fidelity has not been selecting managers that produce value over a buy and hold index fund. The past may not be prologue however, so I invest a few dollars in FMAGX whenever I feel like it.
The expense ratio for VUG is .04%.
The expense ratio for FMAGX is .79%. Applying that expense ratio to the last reported asset number of $24.935B, that would come to more than loose change. I would work for that amount and maybe I could beat the VUG returns provided I did not listen to the research analysts.
The Fidelity FMAGX managers are not worth what has been charged over at least the past 15 years.
Current Position: 22+ shares, AC at $12.14.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
