Economy:
Real GDP growth in the 2020 4th quarter was reported at an annualized 4%. The estimate was for 4.3%. GDP shows economy grew at 4% annual pace at the end of 2020 - MarketWatch; Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2020 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) This estimate is the first one .
While the 4th quarter GDP estimate will be revised some, real GDP decreased 3.5% last year, compared to the a 2.2% increase in 2019, using the current 4th quarter estimate:
Initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending 1/23/20 decreased to 847K from an upwardly revised 914K for the prior week.
Fed decision January 2021: rates unchanged
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (1/27/21)("The pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic. . . The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.")
November home prices rose 9.5%, one of the highest gains on record, Case-Shiller says
Biden’s covid relief plan struggles to get GOP support - The Washington Post; republished at MSN: Turned off by Biden’s approach, GOP opposition to stimulus relief intensifies
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Markets and Market Commentary:
The stock market is at or near the most-expensive levels ever by most measures. When will it matter? No one knows the answer to that question. The charts contained in this article use only recent history data. A longer time period makes some valuation measures look worse now. An example is the median forward P/E of 21.2 times which is far too high historically using a 50 or 70 year time frame. Maybe a median 21.2 x. estimated forward 12 months Non-GAAP earnings is close when looking at the past 25 years. S&P 500 PE Ratio - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends; and see S&P 500 PE Ratio (median at 14.84 TTM GAAP); Figures 1 and 2: S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratios (GAAP and Non-GAAP (since 1989), Figure 4: median S& P 500 TTM non-GAAP P/E = 15.1 since 1935).
How to trade the Biden era? BAC strategist gives 3 stock-market themes- MarketWatch (GDP sensitive stocks; discount retailers; environmental and social stocks)
DuPont, Corteva, and Chemours announce resolution of legacy PFAS claims ("According to the terms of the cost sharing arrangement, DuPont and Corteva together, on one hand, and Chemours, on the other hand, agree to a 50-50 split of certain qualified expenses incurred over a term not to exceed twenty years or $4 billion of qualified spend and escrow contributions in the aggregate.")
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT Announces Redemption of 8.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock I still own shares with the largest positions in my Schwab and Fidelity taxable accounts (15 shares at an AC of $17.26 at Fidelity and 20 shares with an AC of $22.05 at Schwab). I lost some shares to two separate partial redemptions last year. As with many other preferred stocks, the price had a meltdown last March which is always something that I monitor when common stocks are in swan dive mode:
4th quarter earnings reports-owned common stocks:
Arrow Financial (AROW) Reports Annual Net Income of $40.8 million and Continued COVID-19 Response (2020 E.P.S. at $2.64, up 8.9% Y-O-Y; 4th quarter E.P.S. at $.81 up from $.63 in the 2019 4th quarter-1 analyst estimate at $.75; NIM = 2.99%; Efficiency Ratio = 50.77%; NPA Ratio = .18%; Coverage Ratio = 456.3%; Charge off ratio = .05%; Tangible book value per share = $20.02; Total risk based capital ratio = 15.48%)
AT&T Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results {GAAP E.P.S. = ($1.95) with non-cash charges including a $15.5B writedown of DirectTV investment; Adjusted E.P.S. $.75, down from $.89 in 2019 4th quarter-consensus at $.73 on adjusted basis according to Dow Jones; free cash flow = $7.7B; net +1.2M net postpaid subscribers vs consensus at 561K; Warner Media revenues down 9.5% due to pandemic, though HBO revenues increased 12% Y-O-Y-HBO MAX subscriber growth; 617K customers cancelled pay-TV (Direct-TV and AT& T TV); wireline business revenues down 6%} I am not a fan but own a few shares as a bond substitute.
BCB Bancorp, Inc. (BCBP) Generates Strong Earnings of $20.9 Million in 2020 (E.P.S. reported at $.41 per share vs. consensus at $.22 according to Fidelity and up from $.29 in the 2019 4th quarter; NPL Ratio = .7%; Coverage ratio = 205.2%; NIM3.25%; "Total noninterest income increased by $2.7 million, or 267.1 percent, to $3.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2020, from $1.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2019. The increase in total noninterest income was mainly related to a higher unrealized gain of equity securities of $989,000, higher gains on the sale of investment securities of $700,000, BOLI income of $648,000, and higher gains on the sale of loans of $408,000.", see Bank-Owned Life Insurance (BOLI))
Citizens & Northern (CZNC) Announces 2020 4th quarter results (non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.51 vs. consensus at $.42; GAAP E.P.S. of $.43 included a one time $1.6M loss associated with an early repayment of long term borrowings and merger related expenses related to the acquisition of Covenant Financial; "net gains from sales of loans of $1,472,000 for the fourth quarter 2020 were up $1,166,000 from the total for the fourth quarter 2019. The increase reflects an increase in volume of mortgage loans sold, due mainly to the impact of historically low interest rates on the housing market and refinancing activity."; AUM up9.5% Y-O-Y; tangible book value per share = $15.3)
CNB Financial Corporation (CCNE Reports Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings per Share of $0.40 (GAAP E.P.S. at $.40; Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $.75 which excludes a $5.9M charge ($.35 per share) resulting from paying back early the entire FHLB borrowing; the adoption during the 4th quarter of CECL led to an increase reserve for loan losses; Charge off ratio: .21%; NIM = 3.58%; NPA Ratio = .67%; tangible book value per share = $18.66; total risk based capital ratio = 14.29%: "As of December 31, 2020, the COVID-19 related loans with deferred loan payment arrangements, totaled $151.0 million, or 4.5% of total loans outstanding, consisting of 112 loans, totaling $107.2 million, for which principal and interest were deferred, and 55 loans, totaling $43.8 million, for which principal only was deferred."; view the loan deferrals as a significant negative given the total amount and the amount where interest and principal amounts are being deferred)
Financial Institutions, Inc. (FISI) Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results (E.P.S. $.84 vs. $.696 consensus according to Fidelity and up from $.79 in the 2019 4th quarter; NPL Ratio = .26%; NPA ratio = .25%; coverage ratio = 541%; tangible book value per share = $23.52; NIM = 3.13%, down from 3.33% in the 2019 4th quarter; $1.597M gain from sales of loans held for sale, up from $324K in the 2019 4th quarter with 2020 gains at $3.858M up from $1.677M in 2019)
First Choice Bancorp Announces 2020 4th Quarter Results (FCBP)(E.P.S. $.92 vs. $.66 estimate according to Fidelity; NIM = 4.31%; tangible book value per share = $17.29 up $1.59 from 2019 4th Q; Efficiency Ratio = 44.4%; ROA = 1.88%; ROE = 15.44%; NPL Ratio = .34%; NPA Ratio = .28%; Coverage Ratio = 297.35%; Charge Off Ratio = .07%; Tangible Common Equity to Tangible Asset Ratio = 9.18%; as with many other regional banks, earnings were juiced by "Gain on Sale of Loans", reported at $3.286M compared to $947K in the 2019 4th quarter)
Lockheed Martin Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results (continuing operations E.P.S. at $6.38 vs. $6.4 consensus according to Marketwatch; 2021 E.P.S. guidance between $26 to $26.2 with revenues between $67.1B to $68.5B vs. FactSet consensus at $26.18 and and $67.97B in revenues)
People's United Financial (PBCT) Reports Fourth Quarter Net Income of $207.7 Million, or $0.49 per Common Share (operating earnings at $.35 vs. $.33 average estimate; GAAP earnings included a one gain from selling People's United Insurance Agency that netted a pre-tax gain of $75.9M or $.14 per share; NIM at 2.84%, down from 3.14% Y-O-Y; efficiency ratio at 55.4%; Charge off ratio = .12%; Coverage ratio = 129.1%; NPA ratio = .78%; declared quarterly dividend of $.18 per share)
Southside Bancshares, Inc. (SBSI) Announces Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2020 (E.P.S. at $.89 vs. $.64 consensus; NIM = 3%; NPL Ratio = .21%; NPA Ratio = .25%;Charge off ratio = .02%; Coverage ratio = 635.29%; total risk based capital ratio = 21.78%; ROTE = 18.71%; ROA = 1.64%)
3M Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2020 Results; Provides Full-Year 2021 Guidance (E.P.S. $2.38 vs. $2.15 consensus according to Marketwatch; sales up 5.8%; 2021 guidance = $9.2 to $9.7)
Washington Trust Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2020 Earnings (E.P.S. at $1.07 vs. consensus at $.97 according to Fidelity; 2020 E.P.S. at $4 up from $3.96 in 2019; NIM 2.39%; ROA = 1.28%; ROE = 13.96%; ROTE =16.1%; Efficiency Ratio = 56.9%; Tangible Book value per share at $26.87; NPL Ratio = .31%; NPA Ratio = .23%; Coverage Ratio = 334.21%)
Biden administration looks set to target ‘forever chemicals,’ as 3M warns about ‘onerous regulation’ - MarketWatch The main target appears to be PFAS. The Biden Plan to Secure Environmental Justice and Equitable Economic Opportunity | Joe Biden for President: Official Campaign Website
Short Squeezes:
Individual investors are taking on hedge funds who have significant short positions.
I do not short individual stocks. I do not recall even discussing the short interest position in a stock since I started this blog in 2008.
A significant number of stocks experienced wild gyrations in price movements last week as the short sellers and long investors engaged in their battle royal. GameStop Corporation (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc are the stocks that received the most press attention.
I have no doubt that some sophisticated investors have joined the party at least temporarily.
While I do not buy any stock based on the short position, and almost invariably do not even know what it is before making a purchase, my contrarian value style of investing will naturally end up selecting a few stocks that are subjects of extensive short selling.
An example is AMC Networks Inc. (AMCX).
AMCX short interest as a percentage of the float is listed at 59.01% in this 1/26/21 article. Another GameStop? Here Are the Next 10 Most Shorted Small-Caps. | Barron's Another website has the short interest percentage of the float at 57.8% as of 1/15/21. AMCX Short Interest Ratio (AMC Networks) | MarketBeat AMCX bought back 26.6% of its shares last October at $23.2, which of course reduced the float substantially. AMC Networks Announces Final Results of Modified Dutch Auction Tender Offer
AMCX is a different company from AMC Entertainment.
I bought 15 AMCX shares last September. Item # 1.I (9/26/20 Post)(multiple small ball purchases with an average cost of $21.85).
Last Wednesday, the share price spiked intraday to $73 before closing at $48.27. The close on Friday was at $49.42 +1.68 +3.52%.
3 month AMCX Chart:
Unlike GME, AMC Networks is currently profitable with good cash flow generation. Based on last Fridays closing price of $325 for GME (up $131.4 that day), GME's market cap is $22.67B and the consensus E.P.S. estimate for 2021 is -$2.1. The share price was in the $4-$5 range last August.
AMCX on the other hand currently has a consensus E.P.S. estimate of $7.53 this year, so one has to wonder why the short interest is so high. AMC Networks Free Cash Flow 2010-2020-MacroTrends; AMCX Free Cash Flow | AMC Networks - GuruFocus.com
A few Lottery Ticket purchases will be in heavily shorted stocks as well.
One of my recent Lotto purchases was in EBIX. Item # 2.N.(11/13/20 Post)(AC then at $20.27) EBIX pays a quarterly dividend. EBIX Dividend History | Nasdaq
As of 1/15/21, YF had the short position as a percentage of the float at 32.52%. I believe it had been higher earlier.
Like some other heavily shorted stocks that I own, EBIX spiked much higher last Wednesday, hitting an intraday high of $64.14. The close yesterday was at $52.07.
3 month EBIX Chart:
These price movements have nothing to do with what a company is worth IMO but to market dynamics unrelated to fundamentals.
I did eliminate last week two positions in heavily shorted stocks (SKT and DISCA) and pared IRM (7 shares) and EBIX (1 share)
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Covid:
With Donald no longer the President, I can say that the pandemic is not under control in the real world:
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| As of 1/29/21 |
It was "under control", or a hoax, or non-threatening, only in the Alternate Reality of TrumpWorld inhabited by millions of Trumpsters.
Covid vaccine: J&J says its 66% effective, but the single shot may fall short against variants
The Stock Jocks are becoming more concerned, depending on the day or hour, with how effective the vaccines will be combating the Covid variants.
My feeling is that Covid will be around for the remainder of my life. Annual vaccinations, as with the flu, will be the new normal.
Dr. Fauci: Double mask during Covid makes common sense, more effective; Time to double mask or upgrade masks as coronavirus variants emerge, experts say - The Washington Post ("As with other parts of the pandemic response, the United States lags behind other parts of the world when it comes to masks. Several Asian countries, including Singapore and Korea, have mass-produced high-quality masks to send directly to residents.") I have started to double mask with a 3 layer cloth mask covered by a 3 layer surgical mask.
Minnesota confirms first known U.S. case of more contagious Covid variant originally found in Brazil
Moderna CEO says the world will have to live with Covid 'forever'
This Over-the-Counter Medication Can Kill COVID, Study Says | Best Life I have been using a standard saline nasal spray to flush on the sinus passages.
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Don the Authoritarian-His Legacy:
KGB groomed Trump as an asset for 40 years, former Russian spy says | The Times of Israel
One of Donald's legacies will be the number of false statements made by him during his 4 years as President.
The WP has finished its tally and came up with 30,573 untruthful statements made by Donald during his 4 year term as President. The longer Trump was president the more frequently he made false or misleading claims - Washington Post
I had faith that Donald would surpass 30,000 false statements over his 4 years as President and gave that number as my estimate over 2 years ago. Even if he had gone over 100,000 false statements, 80% of republicans would still view him as honest.
Fact checkers did not cause republicans to question Donald's veracity but simply reinforced their beliefs that Donald was honest. Psychologists need to do more research on why that occurs.
Trump weighed firing of acting AG Rosen to pursue vote fraud claims: USA Todays
Trump and Justice Dept. Lawyer Said to Have Plotted to Oust Acting AG - The New York Times The purpose was to use the DOJ in Trump's effort to overturn the certified election results. After Barr resigned, Jeffrey Rosen became Acting Attorney General. Rosen refused Trump's demands that the DOJ intervene on his behalf.
In a subsequent article, the NYT revealed that congressman Scott Perry (R-PA) was part of the conspiracy to undermine the DOJ's independence. The only reason what this conspiracy failed is that virtually every senior DOJ official threatened to resign if the acting DOJ was fired and a Trump sycophant willing to do his bidding was put in charge. Pennsylvania Lawmaker Played Key Role in Trump’s Plot to Oust Acting Attorney General - The New York Times I have previously mentioned Mr. Perry unfavorably in several recent posts. I am not surprised that he was reportedly a key player in this effort.
Trump considered ousting Attorney General in push to overturn election
DOJ watchdog to probe whether officials tried to overturn election
McCarthy voices 'concerns' with Cheney after impeachment vote - POLITICO
Capitol rioter charged with threatening to assassinate AOC; Capitol riots: Garret Miller says he followed Trump orders, apologizes to AOC
Patrick McCaughey arrested for assaulting cop amid Trump mob
John Lolos: Man charged in Capitol riot identified by airport police officer after he was kicked off flight for 'continuously' yelling 'Trump 2020' The plane had to return to the airport because of the scene Mr. Lolos had created on the plane.
Every effort is going to be made to oust the 10 House republicans who decided to obey their oath of office by voting to impeach Trump. Retaliation for doing what is right will be swift for those representatives. 10 Republicans Voted to Impeach Trump. The Backlash Has Been Swift. - The New York Times Do not expect GOP senators to obey their oath of office with a few possible exceptions. 'The trial is stupid': Senate Republicans throw cold water on Trump impeachment Trump is still the leader of America's anti-democracy party.
The Impeachment and Trial of a Former President (Congressional Research Service publication 1/15/21) I view that article as a worthwhile read since it puts the issue in historical context and discusses arguments made by scholars before the Trump second impeachment trial.
Most GOP senators will argue that Donald did nothing wrong. They will claim with feigned earnestness that Donald's speech on 1/6 that led to Trumpster riot was perfect, just like his call with Ukraine's President.
Most of the remaining republican senators will hide behind arguments that an impeachment now is a moot point, unnecessarily divisive, and/or unconstitutional.
The bottom line is most of republican senators were complicit in generating the rage that led to the assault which they will never acknowledge even though their respective contributions were obvious.
Dominion files $1.3B defamation lawsuit against Rudy Giuliani for election claims; READ: Dominion's lawsuit against Rudy Giuliani
Trump Second Impeachment:
The 100% pure Trumpster Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) filed a motion to dismiss the impeachment article as unconstitutional since Trump is no longer President.
45 republican senators voted to dismiss the impeachment proceeding before a trial starts.
I have previously identified 5 GOP senators who may be willing to obey their oath of office and vote to convict Trump for committing an obvious impeachable offense: Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse and Toomey. Those 5 GOP senators voted with the 50 democrats to dismiss Paul's motion.
Republicans Rally Against Impeachment Trial, Signaling Likely Acquittal for Trump - The New York Times; republished at MSN: Republicans Rally Against Impeachment Trial, Signaling Likely Acquittal for Trump
With the senate having dismissed the jurisdictional argument, no senator should be able to rely on that argument when voting to acquit which has to be a decision on the merits. Several will nonetheless base their acquittal votes on that basis since they lack principles and are political cowards, more afraid of losing a primary challenge than performing their duties.
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Kelli Ward-Arizona's Gift to the Democrats that keeps on giving:
Ms. Ward, who was just reelected to another term as Chair of the Arizona Republican Party, is partly responsible for Biden winning that state and for republicans to lose both senate seats. She is a raging pure Trump cultist IMO. Republicans no longer want Republicans in the Arizona Republican Party Ms. Ward and her allies, which include the far right congressmen Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar, are causing moderate republicans to flee the party.
Gosar's siblings push to have him removed from Congress after Capitol riot | TheHill;
Trump, defending ally Kelli Ward, jumps into divisive fight over the Republican party's future. - The Washington Post (President of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce comment: “Right now on the Republican side, I don’t have a word to describe what is going on. Whatever the worst-case scenario is, this is worse.")
Before the election, Ms. Ward joined a lawsuit that sought to compel former VP Pence to reject certified election results in several states that Biden won. Arizona Republican Party joins election lawsuit against Vice President Mike Pence; Kelli Ward and other Arizona Republicans join Texas suit on election
Ms. Ward just led the Arizona republican party to censure Cindy McCain, the former GOP Senator Jeff Flake and the current republican governor Ducey. Arizona GOP reelects Kelli Ward chair, censures McCain, Flake, Ducey The vote was held in an enclosed structure with most of the republicans refusing to wear a mask or to socially distance. The Arizona republican party censured John McCain when he was a senator.
Cindy McCain's response:
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Looks like Bat Shit Crazy is the new normal in the GOP:
Republicans just love our former Dear and Great Leader who Sean Hannity referred to as a "bat shit crazy person". “Hannity Has Said to Me More Than Once, ‘He’s Crazy’”: Fox News Staffers Feel Trapped in the Trump Cult | Vanity Fair
I will not argue with his characterization. Yet Hannity, a demagogic high school graduate, and the rest of Fox "news" pulled out all of the stops to help Donald win another 4 year term as President, notwithstanding this assessment of his mental state.
Fox News is now defending QAnon | Salon.com
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) indicated support for executing prominent Democrats in 2018 and 2019 before running for Congress Donald said that Ms. Greene was one of the GOP's rising stars.
Parkland Dad Tweets Video Of Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) Harassing David Hogg
GOP Congresswoman Blamed Wildfires on Jewish Space Laser; Marjorie Taylor Greene penned conspiracy theory that a laser beam from space started deadly 2018 California wildfire | Media Matters for America
Oregon Republican Party calls Capitol riot a 'false flag' operation to discredit GOP, silence Trump supporters The Alternate Reality that they have created for themselves is impenetrable and is constantly being reinforced by baseless conspiracy theories and demonstrably false information spread by republican politicians (Trump merely being the most prolific and well known); "news" outlets including Fox, Newsmax and OAN; and a vast array of social media outlets including Facebook and Twitter.
Feds: Trump Supporter With Pipe Bombs Discussed Targeting Twitter, Democrats
Some Republicans Still Think Obama Was Born in Kenya (facts inconsistent with baseless conspiracy theories will simply be dismissed as "Fake News")
Donald is of course honest in TrumpWorld:
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1. Eliminated VIAC-Sold 107+ at $40.18:
Quote: ViacomCBS Inc. Cl B (VIAC)
VIAC has been caught up in the short squeeze and has risen significantly in price since early January 2021.
1 Year Chart:
Short Interest as a % of the Float as of 1/15/21 per YF: 22.35%
VIAC Statistics -Yahoo Finance
VIAC | ViacomCBS Inc. Cl B Analyst Estimates
SEC Filed Press Earnings Release for the Q/E 9/30/20
Investor Relations - ViacomCBS Inc.
ViacomCBS Announces Completion of the Merger of CBS and Viacom (12/419)
Profit Snapshot: +$299.07
I sold too early. I had been psychologically traumatized by VIAC's decline shortly after I initiated the position as reflected in this 2 year chart.
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| as of 1/22/21 |
There has recently been a robust rally in content media stocks. I still own small positions in AMC Networks Inc. Cl A (AMCX) and Discovery Inc. Series A (DISCA)
I have previously eliminated positions in other taxable accounts:
Item #1.D. Eliminated VIAC in Fidelity Account-Sold 93+ at $27.18 (9/12/20 Post)(net profit snapshot = $74.24). That post also includes a $81.71 profit snapshot realized from selling all shares (30) held in my Vanguard account.
2020-21 VIAC Net Profit: $455.02
2. Pared HBAN Two Accounts (highest cost lots):
A. Sold 50 HBAN in Fidelity Taxable at $14.6 and 20 at $15:
Quote: Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)
Closing Price 1/29/21: HBAN $13.23 -$0.34 -2.54%
Profit Snapshot: $40.58
New Average Cost this Account: $9.67 (72+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday 1/14/21 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share
Yield at AC = 6.2%
Next Ex Dividend: 3/17/21
5 Year Chart as 0f 1/22/21:
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.C. Added to HBAN-Bought 2 at $7.4; 1 at $7.27; 1 at $6.96; 10 at $7.92 (5/30/20 Post); Item # 3.D. Added to HBAN-Bought 10 at $11.6; 10 at $11; 5 at $9.5; 5 at $8.4; 2 at $7.5 (3/28/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (12/30/20): The market reacted negatively to this report: HBAN $13.84 -$0.67 -4.62% (1/23/21).
E.P.S. was reported at $.27 vs. consensus at $.294 according to Fidelity.
NIM: 2.94% down from 3.12% 2019 4th Q
Efficiency Ratio: 56.9%
Charge Off Ratio: .57%
NPA Ratio: .69%
B. Sold 14 HBAN in Vanguard account at $14.6:
See Item #2.A. above.
Profit Snapshot: +$7.78
New Average Cost Per Share this Account: $8.57 (7+ shares)
 |
| Remaining Shares Vanguard-Snapshot Intraday 1/13/21 |
Yield at $8.57 = 7.00%
HBAN Realized Gains to Date: $947.66
I started to track gains from regional bank stocks in 2008.
3. Small Ball:
A. Started FTS-Bought 5 at $40.25:
Quote: Fortis Inc.-USD priced shares
Closing Price 1/29/21: FTS $40.43 +$0.11 +0.27%
Fortis is a large utility company based in Canada that owns 10 utility companies operating in Canada, the U.S. and the Caribbean. The total customers are about 3.3M.
The U.S. regulated utilities are Central Hudson and UNS Energy which is the parent company of Tucson Electric Power (432K customers) and Unisource Energy (256K customers in Arizona).
The Canadian utilities include:
The company also owns ITC, "the largest electricity transmission company in the U.S."
This is my first purchase of Fortis common stock.
I have traded its reset cumulative equity preferred stocks and currently own 150 shares FTSPRM, discussed in these posts. Item # 2.B. Bought 50 FTSPRM at C$12.4 (5/23/20 Post); Item # 3.A. Bought 50 FTSPRM at C$16.28 (3/14/20 Post); Item # 2. A. Bought 50 FTSPRM at C$17.55 (11/23/19 Post)
Fortis Inc. Cum. Redeem. 1st Pfd. Series M Stock Quote
5 Year FTS Chart:
 |
| as of 1/22/21 |
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.505 per share, raised from $.4775 effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment
Fortis Inc. Announces First Quarter Dividends
The yield for owners of FTS will be depend on the CAD/USD conversion rate.
The dividend growth history is good for a utility.
2020 Dividends Converted into USDs = $1.45
Yield at $1.45 and $40.25 (always before taxes) = 3.6%
The recent dividend increase effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment and an anticipated increase in the 2021 4th quarter will impact the yield calculation positively this year. A more important factor may be the CAD/USD conversion rate for each payment.
Next Ex Dividend Date: 2/12/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/20): Fortis Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2020 Earnings
Net Earnings: C$292M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.63
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.65
The company sold in 2019 its Waneta Expansion hydroelectric generating facility and realized a C$484M gain. Fortis Inc. Completes Sale of Its Interest in the Waneta Expansion Hydroelectric Project
B. Eliminated BAB-Sold 5 at $33.43:
Quote: Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF Overview
Sponsor's website: Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF
Profit Snapshot: +$18.35
Last Discussed Item # 2.A. Bought 5 BAB at $29.76 (5/30/20 Post)
Expense Ratio: .28%
The sponsor claims that the 12 month distribution rate was 2.89% as of 1/22/21.
I have lost interest in owning bond funds, particularly those with effective durations greater than 5 years which is the case for BAB.
C. Started PEAK-Bought 5 at $28.95; 5 at $28.5; 5 at $28.2:
Quote: Healthpeak Properties Inc -A REIT
Closing Price 1/29/21: PEAK $29.65 -$0.36 -1.20%
PEAK "acquires, develops, leases, owns, and manages healthcare real estate. The Company’s diverse portfolio is comprised of investments in the following reportable healthcare segments: (i) senior housing triple-net; (ii) senior housing operating portfolio (“SHOP”); (iii) continuing care retirement community (“CCRC”); (iv) life science; and (v) medical office"
The senior housing segments have been a drag on overall performance. There are 3 fundamental reasons IMO: oversupply, rising operating costs, and the pandemic. Senior Housing REITs At Risk Of ‘Sharp, Prolonged’ Credit Metric Deterioration - Senior Housing News (4/29/20)
Properties: Footnotes omitted due to sizing issue
SEC Filed 3rd quarter 2020 Supplementals
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20: NOI by business segment
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| Page 42 |
Average Cost per share : $28.55 (15 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.37 per share ($1.48 annually)
Yield at AC: 5.18%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/10/20
2020 Dividend Tax Classifications:
Healthpeak Properties™ Reports Third Quarter 2020 Results
Last Earnings Reports (9/30/20):
Maximum Position: 50 Shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must lower my average cost per share.
D. Pared FHB in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $25.35 and 5 at $26.13:
Quote: First Hawaiian Inc.
Closing Price 1/29/21: FHB $23.25 -$0.93 -3.85%
First Hawaiian Inc. Analyst Estimates
Profit Snapshot: $7.18
New Average Cost Per Share this account: $20.49 (70-+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 1/19/21 after pare |
I referenced the first pare in a 1/6/20 comment and the strategy involved with this kind of pare.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share ($1.04 annually), last raised from $.24 effective for the 2019 1st quarter payment
Yield at $20.49 AC: 5.08%
Next Ex Dividend Date: 2/19/21
Dividend Reinvestment: Yes
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): This report was released after I pared the position.
First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB) Reports Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results and Declares Dividend (GAAP E.P.S. of $.47; Non-GAAP at $.50 vs. consensus at $.44 according to Fidelity; core efficiency ratio at 45.43%; core ROA = 1.16%; core ROE = 9.51%; core ROTE = 14.95%)
E. Eliminated NBTB-Sold 10+ at $35.04:
Quote: NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB)
Closing Price 1/29/21: NBTB $33.01 -$0.15 -0.45%
Dividend History | NBT Bancorp
Profit Snapshot: $58.11
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Restarted NBTB-Bought 2 at $31; 1 at 30.5;1 at $30.3; 1 at $29.91; 1 at $28.83; 1 at $28.5 (9/16/20 Post); Item # 1.M. Added to NBTB-Bought 1 at $27.03; 1 at $26.6 (10/17/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (12/30/20): This report was released after I eliminated the position. NBT Bancorp Inc. Announces Net Income of $104.4 Million for 2020 ($2.37 Per Diluted Common Share); Approves Dividend and Increase to Shares Available Under Share Repurchase Program
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $.85 vs. consensus a$.69 according to Fidelity (GAAP at $.78 which includes "branch optimization charges for the quarter of $4.1 million.")
"net interest margin on a fully taxable equivalent (“FTE”) basis for the fourth quarter of 2020 was 3.20%, up 3 basis points (“bps”) from the third quarter of 2020 and down 32 bps from the fourth quarter of 2019.
loan to deposit ratio was 82.6% at December 31, 2020, compared to 94.0% at December 31, 2019 and 84.4% at September 30, 2020.
Nonperforming assets to total assets was 0.45%"
Total Capital Ratio: 15.62%
NPL Ratio: .68%
Charge Off Ratio: .22%
Coverage Ratio: 230.14%
ROA = 1.24%
ROE = 11.59%
ROTE = 15.71%
F. Pared FITB in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 16 at $30.14 and 4 at $32.1 (highest cost lots):
Quote: Fifth Third Bancorp
Closing Price 1/29/21: FITB $28.93 -$0.67 -2.26%
FITB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $43.89
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average cost per share this account after pare: $18.87
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| Snapshot Intraday on 1/19/21 |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually)
The last dividend raise was from $.24 to $.27 effective for the 2020 first quarter.
FITB Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at AC = 5.72%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/30/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/2020):
GAAP E.P.S. $.78
Non-GAAP at $.88
Average Non-GAAP Estimate: $.69
Adjustments to GAAP:
FITB Realized Gains to Date: $1,004.72
G. Pared CATY in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 2 at $35.14:
Quote: Cathay General Bancorp (CATY)
Closing Price 1/29/21: CATY $33.82 -$1.52 -4.30%
CATY Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Cathay General Bancorp Key Metrics | Reuters
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$21.07
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.M. Added to CATY- Bought 1 at $23.75; 1 at $21.38; 1 at $21.13(10/3/2020 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item #3.D. Sold 3 CATY at $27.1 -highest cost lot (12/5/2020)
Average Cost per share after pare this account = $22.92
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| Snapshot Intraday 1/6/21 After Pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share ($1.24 annually)
Yield at AC = 5.41%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/30/20
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): This report was released after my pare. Cathay General Bancorp Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results
2020 E.P.S. = $2.87 ($228.9M in net income)
4th Q E.P.S. = $.89 ($70.9 in net income)
Up from the $.84 earned in the 2019 4th quarter
Efficiency Ratio: 49.61%
NIM: 3.12%
ROA = 1.5%
ROE = 11.75%
NPA Ratio: .38%
Coverage Ratio: 229.18%
Total Capital Ratio: 15.45%
"there was a reversal for loan losses of $5.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2020 and a $9.5 million decrease in nonaccrual loans during the fourth quarter."
CATY has not yet adopted CECL.
More details: SEC Filing
H. Pared BDGE in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 5 at $26.72:
Quote: Bridge Bancorp Inc. (BDGE)
Closing Price 1/29/21: BDGE $24.43 -$3.40 -12.22% That move may at least in part be arbitrage related.
Bridge Bancorp to Join S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening on 2/1/21 (2/25/21)
Profit Snapshot: $41.58
BDGE Realized Gains to Date: $2,616.47
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Average Cost per share after pare this account: $17.7
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| Snapshot Intraday 1/6/21 After Pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share, last raised from $.23 effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment
Bridge Bancorp, Inc. and Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. Announce Bridge Bancorp Fourth Quarter 2020 Dividend BDGE is expected to complete its acquisition of Dime Community on 2/1/21.
Yield at $17.7 AC this account: 5.42%
Next Ex Dividend: 2/4/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): This report was released after my pare. Bridge Bancorp, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Year End 2020 Results With Diluted Earnings Per Common Share of $0.45 (as Reported) and $0.75 (as Adjusted)
Non-GAAP E.P.S. of $.75 excludes merger and stock acceleration expense, and related tax adjustments. Consensus estimate at $.72.
NIM = 2.98%
NPL Ratio: .26%
NPA Ratio: .19%
Coverage Ratio: 363.43%
Tangible Book Value per share = $20.69
"remaining loan payment deferrals at January 22, 2021 were $76.1 million, or 1.7%, of total loans held for investment"
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio: .8375%
Most Recent Sell Discussion: Item # 2.D. Pared BDGE-Sold 5 at $23.8-highest cost lot this account (12.25.20 Post)
Sell Discussions-Largest Realized Gains:
Item # 2.A. Sold 109+ BDGE at $35.53 (10/31/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,782.46); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 BDGE at $35.03 (4/23/17 Post)(profit snapshot= $376.06); Item # 4 Pared BDGE Selling Highest Cost 56 Shares at $24.71 (12/10/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $200.65)
BDGE Realized Gains to Date: $2,617.7
I. Started OGE-Bought 5 at $32.15; 1 at $31.63; 4 at $31.31; 5 at $30.7; 5 at $30.31:
Quote: OGE Energy Corp
OGE is the parent company of Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company and a holder of 25.5 percent limited partner interest and 50 percent general partner interest in Enable Midstream Partners LP.
Enable Midstream Partners LP (ENBL)
Corporate Profile | OGE Energy Corp.
Investment Category: Bond Substitute
5 Year Historical:
5 Year Chart:
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| As of 1/22/21 |
Average Cost Per Share: $31.13 (20 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.4025 per share ($1.62 annually)
Yield at AC = 5.2%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/8/21
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
OGE 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20
GAAP earnings were negatively impacted by an impairment charge of $32.2M in OGE's investment in Enable; "less favorable weather in the quarter, compared to 2019 with cooling days decreasing approximately 21%"; and the pandemic.
Purchase and Sell Restrictions and Guidelines: Small Ball Rules
J. Pared TD-Sold 2 at $58.39 (part of highest cost lot):
Quotes:
USD Price Shares: Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
CAD Priced: Toronto-Dominion Bank (Canada: Toronto)
Closing Price 1/29/21: TD $56.65 -$1.00 -1.73%
I sold on the ex dividend date.
TD Bank Group - Investor Relations
Investment Categories: Bond Substitute/Dividend Growth
Profit Snapshot: +$6.99
Average Cost this account after pare = $51.17 (40+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday 1/7/21 After Pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.79 per share (C$3.16 annually)
TD Bank Group Declares Dividends
Yield at AC: 4.61% (yield before taxes will depend on the CAD/USD exchange rate; the yield shown above is based on the last 4 USD actual payments of $2.36 per share which includes the 2021 first quarter payment)
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| USD Dividends |
Last Ex Dividend: 1/17/21
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4 Bought 30 TD at $54.28 (4/10/19 Post)
Recent Material News: TD Bank Group Comments on Expected Impact of The Charles Schwab Corporation's Fourth Quarter Earnings; TD confirms ownership stake in The Charles Schwab Corporation following completion of transaction (TD owns a 13.5% stake in Charles Schwab)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 10/31/20): The 10/31/20 date also marked the end of TD's fiscal reporting year. Q4 2020 EARNINGS NEWS RELEASE
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (12/9/20): 3 stars with a FV of US$61
S & P (12/14/20): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of US$55
K. Pared TPVG-Sold 9 shares at $13.3:
Those lots were bought with dividends.
Quote: TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.
Profit Snapshot: +$26.95
Last Discussed: Item # 2.L. Pared TPVG in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $12.41 (8/22/20 Post) That pare reduced my average cost to $5.32 in this account.
Last Substantive Buy Discussion: Item # 3.B. Added 5 TPVG at $11.1; 5 at $10.7; 5 at $8.2; 5 at $6.92; 2 at $5.35; 2 at $4.45; 2 at $4; 2 at $3.5; 2 at $2.99; 5 at $4.96 (4/11/2020)
Average Cost this Account after pare = $9.72 (59+ shares)
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| Using 1/22/21 Closing Price |
Dividend: Regular, Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
Yield at AC = 14.81% (regular dividend only)
Last Special Dividend: $.10 per share paid 1/13/21
Last Earnings Report (9/30/20): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
NII per share = $.40
Book Value Per Share = $13.28
"Recorded $4.9 million from the realization of gains from the sale of CrowdStrike, Inc. shares, with 16,747 shares still held as of September 30, 2020";
"Recorded $1.1 million from the realization of gains from the sale of Medallia, Inc. shares, with 18,616 shares still held as of September 30, 2020"
"Portfolio company exit and liquidity events subsequent to the third quarter include: Nestle USA announced that it acquired TPVG portfolio company, Freshly Inc.; TPVG portfolio company Hims, Inc. announced plans to go public through a merger with Oaktree Acquisition Corp.; and TPVG portfolio company Qubole, Inc. was acquired by Idera, Inc."
Net investment income per share does not include realized capital gains:
Credit quality per TPVG:
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/20 (list of investments starts at page 5)
TPVG Realized Gains to Date: $851.14
Highest Cost Lot Remaining this account: 10 shares with an AC of $11.2 bought on 12/18/18
Lowest Cost Lot: 2 shares at $2.99 bought on 3/13/20.
This shows what can happen to a BDC during a stock market meltdown:
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| TPVG Purchases 3/17/20 to 4/6/20-Snapshot as of 1/22/21 |
L. Added to Kellogg-Bought 2 at $61; 1 at $60.5; 1 at $59.9; 1 at $59.4; 1 at $58.8; 1 at $58; 1 at $57.6:
I will continue these small ball buys provided the subsequent purchases are below the lowest price in the chain.
Closing Price 1/29/21: K $58.94 -$1.23 -2.04%
Kellogg Co. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
2019 Annual Report for the F/Y ending 12/28/19
Kellogg Company | Our Brand Portfolio
Last Discussed: Item # 3.D. Added to Kellogg-Bought 4 at $62.7; 2 at $62.44; 2 at $61.3 (12/19/20 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post and have nothing to add here.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.57 per share ($2.28 annually)
Last Ex Dividend: 11/30/20
M. Pared FAX-Sold 103 at $4.46 (highest cost lots, including last remaining shares bought with dividends):
Quote: Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund Inc. Overview - A Leveraged bond CEF
Fund Sponsor's Website: Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, Inc.
Profit Snapshot: $106.84
New Average Cost Per Share: $2.98
Dividend: Currently, monthly at$.0275
Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, Inc. Announces Payment Of Monthly Distribution (supported by ROC)
Yield at AC = 11.07%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/30/20 at $.0275 per share
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 3.L. Pared FAX-Sold 12 Shares Bought with Dividends at $4.39 (1/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.26); Item # 1.E. Pared FAX-Sold 130 at $4.19 (12/12/20 Post)(profit snapshot $18.89)
N. Pared BK in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 1 at $45.43
Quote: Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
Closing Price 1/29/21: BK $39.85 -$0.53 -1.31%
BK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: $9.33
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Added to BK-Bought 3 at $34.81 (10/3/20 Post); Item # 1.G. (9/12/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20): BNY Mellon Reports Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Of $702 Million Or $0.79 Per Common Share, Includes $0.18 Per Share Negative Impact Of Notable Items
The Stock Jocks reacted negatively to BK's 4th quarter earnings report released on 1/20. (Closing Price 1/20: BK $42.49 -$3.33 -7.27%; Volume at 10.338+M vs. average at 5.141+M) I did not care for it either.
GAAP E.P.S. = $.79
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.96, down from $1.01 in the 2019 4th quarter
Zack's had the consensus non-GAAP at $.93. BNY Mellon's (BK) Q4 Earnings, Revenues & Costs Decline Y/Y - January 20, 2021 - Zacks.com
Fidelity had the estimate at $.96 for non-GAAP E.P.S.
A major problem is fee waivers on BK's money market funds. "In 4Q20, the net impact of money market fee waivers was $134 million, up from $101 million in 3Q20, driven by low short-term interest rates." This problem will likely persist for an extended period given the Fed's Jihad Against the Savings Class.
Assets under management "increased 15%, primarily reflecting higher market values, net inflows and the favorable impact of a weaker U.S. dollar (principally versus the British pound)."
Assets under administration increased 11% to $4.11 trillion "primarily reflecting higher market values and client inflows, the favorable impact of a weaker U.S. dollar and net new business."
Provision for credits losses was $15M.
SEC Filed Financial Supplement for the 2020 4th quarter
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase, other than through dividend reinvestment, must be at the lowest price in the chain.
4. Intermediate Term Bond Ladder:
A. Sold 1 Entergy Louisiana 2.4% First Mortgage Bond at 107.371 (IB Account):
Profit Snapshot: $124.81
I was paid $7.73 in accrued interest by the buyer.
YTM at 107.371 = 1.01%
The profit was more appealing than holding a 2.4% coupon bond until maturity in 2026.
My trade was the only one on 1/25/21.
Entergy Louisiana is a wholly owned subsidiary of Entergy Corp. (ETR).
I decided to go with the common stock rather than to continue holding this bond. So far, I have only bought a 1 share placeholder position at $92.55, which I will discuss in my next post. Entergy's quarterly dividend is currently at $.95 per share. The dividend was raised from $.93 effective for the 2020 4th quarter payment. ETR Dividend History | Nasdaq At a $3.8 per share annual rate, the dividend yield at $92.55 is 4.11% which is likely to increase at my constant cost basis.
3. Fidelity Taxable Account Bond Positions as of 1/29/21:
The bond positions are in run off due to unacceptable yields for new investments.
In this account, there have been an abnormal number of issuer optional redemptions, subject to make whole premium payments, since the FED accelerated its Jihad Against the Savings Class through reintroduction of ZIRP and QE, with QE restarted with no limits on amounts.
Through optional redemptions and redemptions at maturity, this account lost close to 50% of its bond positions last year and so far this year, though a lesser percentage in the dollar amount. None of the Tennessee municipal bond positions were redeemed or sold last year.
The result in a pile up in my cash allocation held in this taxable account that is currently at 45%.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
