Economy:
Fed decision March 2021: Fed sees stronger economy, higher inflation, but no rate hikes
A majority of FED members to not anticipate a hike in the FF rate prior to 2024. The current real GDP estimate for 2021 is at 6.5%, up from a 4.2% estimate made by the FED last December:
The Fed - March 17, 2021: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version (see Figure 2 for projections on the FF rate)
Retail sales February 2021: -3% last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, probably due to weather conditions
The IRS is behind in processing nearly 7 million tax returns, an early warning sign the agency is under strain - The Washington Post; IRS tax refund delays in 2020 drag out a full year for millions
Mortgage refinance demand tanks 39% as rates continue to climb
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Markets and Market Commentary:
S & P 500 P/E Ratios as of 3/19/21
TTM GAAP = 44.63
Estimated Forward 12 month Non-GAAP = 22.42
Dividend Yield = 1.49%
Sourced: P/E & Yields
Shiller PE Ratio = 35.2
Shiller PE Ratio - 150 Year Chart | Longtermtrends
Market Cap to GDP-The Buffett Indicator-Updated Historical Chart | Longtermtrends = 1.92
Value stocks are so in favor they’ve become momentum stocks - MarketWatch
Roaring economy to benefit more than reopening trades: Credit Suisse
The Nasdaq Is Acting Strange. What That Means for Stocks. | Barron's By strange, the author is referring to unusually high daily divergences in the Nasdaq and DJIA indexes. For example, on 3/9/21, the Nasdaq outperformed by 3.59%, the largest divergence since 1/3/2001. Starting in March 2009 through February 2021, there was just 1 day with a divergence that large and there have now been 2 in the past month.
Investing in bonds has ‘become stupid,’ Ray Dalio says. Here’s what he recommends instead - MarketWatch (Non-debt and non-dollar assets)
Earnings Reports from Owned Stocks:
AMC Networks Inc. (AMCX) Reports Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2020 Results (GAAP diluted E.P.S. at $2.09, adjusted to $2.72; consensus at $.522 according to Fidelity; revenues at $780M, down .6% Y-O-Y; "the increase in Adjusted EPS was primarily related to mark-to-market gains on investments and a reduction in shares outstanding, partially offset by declines in Adjusted Operating Income and higher income tax expense"; "For the year ended December 31, 2020, AMC Networks recognized a gain of $76 million related to its shares of FuboTV Inc. AMC Networks sold 3,593,494 shares of FUBO common stock in multiple transactions occurring in December 2020 and January 2021. Realizing total gross proceeds of $96 million in January 2021. As of the date of this release, AMC Networks does not hold any shares of FuboTV common stock"-fuboTV Inc. (FUBO); 2020 free cash flow of $686M; "During the full year 2020, the Company repurchased 14.8 million shares of its Class A common stock for $354 million representing an average purchase price of $23.91 per share (inclusive of shares repurchased in a “modified Dutch auction” tender offer . . As of December 31, 2020, the Company had $135 million available for repurchase under the stock repurchase program."; ended 2020 with over 6 million subscribers to its AMC+ streaming service)
Evergy (EVRG) Announces 2020 Results at Top End of Guidance Range, Declares Quarterly Dividend, and Issues 2021 Outlook (adjusted 2020 non-GAAP E.P.S. at $3.1, up 7% compared to 2019; 2021 non-GAAP E.P.S. guidance at $3.2 to $3.4; 4th quarter 2020 non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.28 with consensus at $.22 according to Fidelity; declares quarterly dividend of $.535 per share)
FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK) Announces Fourth Quarter and Annual 2020 Results and Declares Distribution for First Quarter (NII per share = $.63; adjusted NII per share = $.72; net asset value per share at $25.02, up from $24.46 as of 9/30/20; declares regular quarterly dividend of $.60 per share)
Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results (NII per share = $.21; net asset value per share = $11.02; annualized portfolio yield on debt securities = 13%; held warrant and equity positions in 68 companies; spillover income per share = $.32; declared three monthly distributions of $.10 per share; overall a poor report)
Kroger (KR) Delivers Strong Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2020 Results (fiscal 4th quarter ending 1/30/21; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.81; GAAP E.P.S. at (.10) after a $989 million charge for UFCW pension commitments; consensus non-GAAP at $.688 according to Fidelity; Total company sales were $30.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared to $28.9 billion for the same period last year. 2020 Adjusted E.P.S. at $3.47; "reduced net total debt by $2.0 billion over the last four quarters"; "repurchased $1.32 billion of shares in 2020"; guides 2021 adjusted E.P.S. to $2.75 to $2.95); "Total company sales were $132.5 billion in 2020, compared to $122.3 billion for the same period last year. Excluding fuel and dispositions, total sales grew 14.2%.")
NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Releases Strong Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results and supplemental package at Q4 2020 - MD&A (number of healthcare properties as of 12/31/20 at 188; occupancy at 97.1%; weighted average lease expiry at 14.5 years; AFFO at C$38.539M or C$.21 per diluted unit; 2020 AFFO at C$150.269M; weighted average interest rate 3.54% with interest coverage at 3.04; debt to gross book value including convertible debentures = 48%. I own 1000 units).
PSEG (PEG) Announces 2020 Results (4th GAAP net income of $431M or $.85 per share; Non-GAAP E.P.S. at $.65; consensus at $.644 according to Fidelity; operating revenues of $2.478B; 2020 GAAP E.P.S. = $3.76 with non-GAAP at $3.43; 2019 non-GAAP E.P.S. at $3.28)
Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Reports First Quarter 2021 Results (net income of C$3.847B, up 10% Y-O-Y; diluted E.P.S. at C$2.66, up 11%) I have not discussed this stock here.
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Texas GOP launches avalanche of bills to curtail voting
Senator Ron Johnson (R-WIS): Latest comments are just straight out racist; Sen. Ron Johnson Called Rioters At Capitol ‘People Who Love This Country’ | TODAY - YouTube Johnson is up for reelection in 2022. He is vulnerable and becoming more so whenever he opens his mouth to talk.
Trump campaign loses New York Times lawsuit over Russia claim Trump uses lawsuits to bully people. Donald J. Trump Is A Libel Bully But Also A Libel Loser
U.S. intelligence: Putin authorized influence operations to hurt Biden's candidacy - Axios One means used by Russia was to have proxies feed disinformation to Rudy Giuliani who then disseminated Russia's propoganda in "conservative" news outlets.
Trump’s Incomplete Border Wall Is in Pieces That Could Linger for Decades - The New York Times
USPS finds ‘no evidence’ of mail ballot fraud in Erie case cited by top Republicans A republican operative wrote an affidavit for an Erie, PA. postal worker, Richard Hopkins, to sign claiming that post office employees were backdating ballots. Donald called this postal worker a "patriot" and he was no doubt one in Trump's America where fact free conspiracy theories are viewed as unchallengeable gospel. There was no truth in the accusation, as the affiant later admitted, but then facts and truth are Fake News in Trump's America anyway and something valued only by losers.
"Hopkins soon recanted, officials from the Postal Service’s Office of Inspector General told members of Congress on Nov. 10, and the new investigation confirmed. . . Hopkins “revised his initial claims, eventually stating that he had not heard a conversation about ballots at all — rather he saw the Postmaster and Supervisor having a discussion and assumed it was about fraudulent ballot backdating,” the report states." The worker had recently been disciplined several times prior to making the unfounded accusation. Postal Inspector General Report Hopkins did raise more than $100K for himself with a GoFundMe page. USPS 'Whistleblower' Richard Hopkins Recants Claims: Report | Law & Crime
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1. Small Ball:
A. Pared GNL-Sold 20 at $19.1:
Quote: Global Net Lease Inc.
"As of December 31, 2020, we owned 306 properties consisting of 37.2 million rentable square feet, which were 99.7% leased, with a weighted-average remaining lease term of 8.5 years. Based on the percentage of rental income on a straight-line basis as of December 31, 2020, 64% of our properties were located in the U.S. and Canada and 36% of our properties were located in Europe. In addition, our portfolio was comprised of 49% industrial/distribution properties, 46% office properties and 5% retail properties."
Management: External
Investment Strategy: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
GNL Website: Overview | GNL
2020 Annual Report (risk factor summary starts at page 7 and ends at page 32; list of properties starts at page 33)
Profit Snapshot: +$29.32
Average Cost Before Pare = $15.25
Average Cost after pare this account = $14.87 with ROC adj. (124+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 2/24/21 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share, reduced from $.53 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. The dividend reduction was expected since the prior rate was not entirely supported by cash flow.
Yield at New AC this account: 10.76%
Last Ex-Dividend: 1/8/21
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.I. Added to GNL-Bought 5 at $16.9 (1/23/21 Post); Item # 1.E. Bought 1 GNL at $13.19 and 1 at $12.61 (5/23/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Added 5 GNL at $17.65; 5 at $16.87, 5 at $16.3; 5 at $14.6; 5 at $14; 10 at $13.5; 5 at $12.94; 2 at $12.66; 2 at $12.1; 2 at $11; 1 at 10.1; 4 at $11.48 and 2 at $10.8 (4/4/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/30/20):
AFFO per share = $.45;
"99.7% leased with a remaining weighted-average lease term of 8.5 years";
"Collected 99% of fourth quarter cash rents"
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.E. Sold 10 GNL at $21.51 (2/19/20 Post); Item # 2.B. Pared GNL-Sold Highest Cost 50 Shares at $20.05 (12/11/19 Post)
GNL Realized Gains to Date: $53.52
Goal: Any realized gain on the shares before ROC adjustments.
Excluding shares purchased with dividends, the highest original cost lot has a tax cost basis of $16.83, a 10 share lot bought on 12/12/18. The original cost was at $19.47. The next highest lot has an original cost basis of $18.84 and a current tax basis of $17.17 (10/10/19). Those two lots will be sold when and if the price exceeds $19.47.
B. Pared CZNC-Sold 5 at $21.85:
Included shares bought with 2 dividend payments.
Quote: Citizens & Northern Corp. (CZNC)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: $18.41
Average Cost after pare = $16.92 (30+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 2/24/21 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.27 per share ($1.08 annually)
Yield at New AC = 6.38%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/29/21
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.A. Added to CZNC-Bought 10 at $17.2; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $15.55 (9/26/20 Post); Item # 1.B. Restarted CZNC- Bought 10 at $17.7; 5 at $17.07 (6/13/20 Post)
The largest gain was in 2011: Item # 1 Sold 100 CZNC at $16.53 (9/2/11 Post)(profit snapshot = $517.61); Item # 1 Bought 50 CZNC at $11.77 (8/12/2010 Post) and Item # 1 Added 50 CZNC at $10.46 (8/17/10 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
CZNC Realized Gains to date: $839.52
C. Pared MET-Sold 1 at $59.61 (Vanguard Taxable):
Quote: MetLife Inc.
Closing Price 3/19/21: MET $61.29 -$0.47 -0.76%
Profit Snapshot: +$22.31
Average cost after Pare this account = $36.94 (5 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.46 per share ($1.84 annually)
MetLife, Inc. - Stock - Common Dividend History
Yield at AC = 4.98% (5 shares this account)
Last Ex Dividend: 2/4/21
Last Discussed: Item # 1.N. Bought 1 MET at $35.52 (10/24/20 Post); Item # 1.F. Restarted MET-Bought 5 at $37.3 (8/29/20 Post)(contains links to prior trade discussions and snapshots of realized gains)
Last Earnings Report (QE 12/31/20) SEC Filed Press Release
"adjusted earnings, excluding total notable items, of $1.8 billion, or $2.03 per share, compared to adjusted earnings, excluding total notable items, of $1.4 billion, or $1.53 per share in the fourth quarter of 2019."
MET Realized Gains to Date: $729.98 The largest single realized gain was $502.7. Item #5.A. Sold 106+ MET at $55.13-Eliminated Position (7/19/17 Post)
D. Pared SHBI-Sold 10 at $15.4:
Quote: Shore Bancshares Inc.
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$39.99
Average Cost After Pare = $10.65 (10 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 2/25 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share, last raised from $.10 per share effective for the 2019 4th quarter payment.
Shore Bancshares Inc Common Stock (SHBI) Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at AC = 4.51%
Last Discussed: Item # 1.G. Started SHBI -Bought 5 at $11.4; 5 at $10.9; 5 at $10.4 (11/13/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report ( 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. = $.32
NIM = 3.08%
Average Cost = $69.7
Quote: Novo Nordisk A/S ADR
Novo Nordisk, driving change to defeat diabetes
Revenues by product 2020 vs. 2019
My overall impression is that NVO is far too concentrated in diabetes drugs.
NVO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
1 ADR = 1 Ordinary Share
Ordinary shares are priced in Danish Krona (DKK).
DKK / USD Currency Chart. Danish Krone to US Dollar Rates
I discussed NVO in several recent comments: 3/6/21 (noting that the P/E is high compared to other large pharma names); 3/5/21 (dividend payout ratio hovers near 50% and noting the key is how well semaglutide will do when approved for weight loss); 3/4/21 (wondering out loud whether the current price adequately reflects the blockbuster potential of semaglutide, citing Novo Nordisk makes headway in bid to rule obesity market with stunning phase 3 semaglutide data | FiercePharma, published 2/11/2011)
Semaglutide's brand name is Ozempic and has already been approved for treating type 2 diabetes. Once-Weekly Noninsulin | Ozempic® (semaglutide) injection 0.5 mg or 1 mg Ozempic is a self-injected drug. The dose for weight loss is 2.4 mg, more than twice what is approved for diabetes, though NVO has also requested FDA approval for a 2 mg dose for diabetes.
The recently released Phase 3 study for weight loss showed that about 1/3rd of participants lost more than 20% of their body weight during a 68 week trial or an average of 33 pounds. Once-Weekly Semaglutide in Adults with Overweight or Obesity | NEJM (mean change in body weight was -14.9%; 86.4% of participants lost 5% or more)
The only reason for nibbling now is this drug. Other large pharma stocks sell at much cheaper prices to trailing earnings.
Drug treatments for diabetes, the main focus for NVO, are numerous.
Dividend History:
5 Year Financial Data:
Earnings Report 2020 4th Quarter.pdf
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers)
The CS and Morningstar analysts were not enthusiastic.
Credit Suisse ( 1/20/21 : This report can not be found using the NVO ADR symbol. The CS analyst downgraded NVO to neutral from outperform based on a stretched valuation compared to other large cap pharmaceutical stocks, but reiterated the DKK470 PT or roughly $75.25 based on the current exchange rate. The analyst is critical of NVO's decision to proceed with an expensive trial of semaglutide to treat alzheimer's. Novo Nordisk to enter phase 3 development in Alzheimer’s disease with oral semaglutide; GLP-1-Receptor-Agonists-Cognitive-Vitality-For-Researchers.pdf
Morningstar (2/4/21): 3 stars with a $73 Fair Value
F. Eliminated DPG in Fidelity Taxable-Sold Remaining 21+ Shares at $13.03:
Quote: Duff & Phelps Utility & Infrastructure Fund Inc. Overview- a leveraged CEF
Closing Price 3/19/21: DPG $13.19 +$0.09 +0.69%
Sponsor's Website: Duff & Phelps Utility and Infrastructure Fund Inc.
DPG semiannual report for the period ending 10/31/20
Profit Snapshot: +$55.57
Dividend: Quarterly at $.35, heavily ROC supported.
Data Date of 2/26/21 Trade: DPG-CEF Connect
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $12.58
Closing Market Price: $13.05
Premium: +3.74%
I still own shares in another taxable account (390+ shares, turned off dividend reinvestment based on price to net asset value per share; will receive in that account a $136+ cash dividend later this month)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.D. Sold 15 DPG at $11.62 (12/12/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.29)(contains snapshots of prior DPG trades = +$887.88); Item # 1.K. Pared DPG-Sold 5 at $11.82 (1/16/21 Post)
G. Continuing Paring FDUS in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 10 at $15.01:
Quote: Fidus Investment Corp.
Website: Fidus
Management: External
Profit Snapshot: $38.21 (2/26 sell only)
New Average Cost per share this account = $7.98 (20+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 2/26 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share (regular only), reduced from $.39 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment.
The last quarterly payment included a 7 cent per share special dividend. Fidus Investment Corporation Declares First Quarter 2021 Dividend
Yield at AC = 15.54% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 3/11/21
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.C. Bought Back FDUS in Fidelity Account Bought 20 at $13.7; 5 at $11.99; 5 at $11.5; 5 at $9, 2 at $8.56, 2 at $5.98, 1 at $4.65 (3/28/20 Post)
Net Asset Value Per Share History: Good for an externally managed BDC
12/31/20: $16.81
9/30/20: $15.94
12/31/19: $16.85
9/30/19: $16.47 10-Q
12/30/18: $16.47
9/30/18: $16.41
3/30/18 $16.28
12/31/17 $16.05
12/31/16 $15.76
12/31/15 $15.17
12/31/14 $15.16
12/31/13 $15.35
12/21/12 $15.32
IPO at $15 June 2011
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share = $.25, well below regular quarterly dividend of $.31.
Adjusted NII per share = $.44, includes a reversal of a capital gain incentive fee.
I pay more attention to the unadjusted number.
Spillover Income Per Share: $.90
"As of December 31, 2020, we had debt investments in one portfolio company on PIK only non-accrual status, which had an aggregate cost and fair value of $9.2 million and $5.5 million, respectively."
PIK = Payment-in-Kind (more debt) rather than in cash
I call PIK interest "pretend" interest. Sometimes the loan is paid off in full which is when the pretend interest becomes real money.
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.O. Continued Paring FDUS -Sold Highest Cost Lots in Fidelity Taxable Account at $13.75 (11/28/20 Post)(sold at cost); Items 1.L, 1.M; 1.N (11/30/20 Post)(3 profit snapshots= $11.77, each transaction barely profitable); Item 1.D. and E. Pared FIDUS in Schwab Account-Sold 50 at $15.34 and Sold 20 FDUS (Fidelity Account) at $15.4 (2/22/20 Post)(profit snapshots +$68.44 and +$18.07 respectively, total at $86.51); Item # 1.C. Pared FDUS-Sold 52 at $15.15 (3/6/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.88)
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid.
FDUS Realized Gains to Date: $198.09 ($159.88 in prior trades)
H. Pared CXP-Sold 5 at $14.96 and 1.801 at $17.41:
Portfolio Overview | Columbia Property Trust
Profit Snapshot: +$19.11
The 5 shares included the .92 share purchased with the last dividend payment, the highest cost lot, and 4.08 of a 5 share lot bought on 7/8/20 which was the second highest cost lot.
With the second are, I sold my next highest cost lot bought with a dividend + 1 share from my highest cost lot.
New Average Cost Per Share = $11.49 (50+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 3/18/21 after second pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share
Columbia Property Trust- Dividends
I have now turned off dividend reinvestment.
Yield at AC = 7.31%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/26/21 (owned as of)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added to CXP-Bought 10 at $12.12; 10 at $11.57; 5 at $11.27; 5 at $10.9; 5 at $10.5 (9/26/20 Post)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): Columbia Property Trust (CXP) 2020 4th Quarter Supplemental
4th quarter normalized FFO at $.32 reduced by a charge;
GAAP net income of $.87 juiced by a $175.272M gain on the sale of real estate;
normalized FFO guidance for 2021 is between $1.23 to $1.3 per share;
collected 97.9% of 4th quarter rents
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.L. Sold 5 CXP at $14.43 (12/25/20 Post); Item # 1.O. Pared CXP-Sold 15 at $13.96-highest cost lots in Fidelity Account (11/21/20 Post)
I. Pared BHB-Sold 10 shares at $28.5 and 5 at $30.5-highest cost lots:
Quote: Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)
Closing Price 3/19/21: BHB $29.10 -$0.82 -2.74%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Profit Snapshot: +$95.46
New Average Cost Per Share: $19.53 (50+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday 3/5/21 after last pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share
Yield at New AC this Account: 4.51%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/17/21 (owned as of)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.D. Added to BHB-Bought 2 at $22.75; 5 at $21.5 (2/20/21 Post) I discussed the last earnings report in that post. Item # 2.D. Added to BHB-Bought 5 at $17.5; 5 at $14; 2 at $13.8; 2 at $13.5 (5/2/2020 Post)
BHB Realized Gains = $4,350.17
J. Added to VTRS-Bought 1 at $14.7; 1 at $13.97; 2 at $13.35:
Quote: Viatris Inc. (as of 3/19/21, the consensus E.P.S. for 2021 is $3.57 and $3.67 for 2022)
Website: Viatris | Global Healthcare Company
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
Last Discussed: Item # 1.P. Started VTRS-Bought 1 at $17.63; 4 at $17.35; 2 at $17.15; 1 at $16.91 (2/13/21 Post)
VTRS disappointed with its 4th quarter report and 2021 guidance contained therein hat caused the share price to decline significantly from my first purchase. SEC Filing
Current Position: 12 shares with an AC of $16.13
VTRS has indicated that it will pay its first quarterly dividend during the 2nd quarter. The penny rate will be $.11 per share. VTRS Stock Plummets On Downbeat 2021 Guidance Despite Dividend Initiation | Investor's Business Daily
Dividend Yield at AC of $16.13 = 2.73%
Broker Reports (available to Schwab customers):
Morningstar (2/22/21): 4 stars with a $25 FV.
Argus (1/4/21): Hold
S & P (3/2/21): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $15.
Purchase Restriction: Maximum 30 shares with each subsequent purchase being at the lowest price in the chain.
K. Added 1 CC at $24.08-Schwab Taxable:
Quote Chemours Co.
Brands and Products | The Chemours Company
Last Discussed: Item # 1.Q. Started CC in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $25.2 (2/20/21 Post) I discussed the 2020 4th quarter report in that post. The Chemours Company (CC) Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results with Solid Momentum Across Core Markets
Other Buy Discussion: Item # 1.D. Started CC in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $26.6; 5 at $26.14; 5 at $25.4; 5 at $24.8; 5 at $24.3 and Sold 22 CC Vanguard Taxable account at $28.5 (1/16/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.79).
L. Added 1 FLO at $21.92:
Quote: Flowers Foods Inc.
Closing Price 3/19/21: FLO $23.61 0.00 0.00%
FLO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Our Family of Brands – Flowers Foods (mostly breads and buns)
Flowers Foods At-A-Glance – Flowers Foods
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Started FLO-Bought 5 at $23.45; 5 at $23.05; 5 at $22.6; 5 at $22.2 and 5 at $21.88(12/5/20 Post) I discussed the 2020 3rd quarter report in that post, noting that GAAP earnings were negatively impacted by non-cash depreciation and amortization expenses.
Average Cost Per Share = $22.61 (26+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share, last raised from $.19 effective for the 2020 2nd quarter payment.
Dividends & Stock Splits – Flowers Foods
Yield at AC = 3.54%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/4/21
Last Earnings Report (Fiscal quarter ending 1/2/21): Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Reports Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2020 Results
E.P.S. at $.26, adjusted to $.28 (consensus at $.24)
Revenues up 11.5% (but extra week in period accounted for 8.2% of that gain)
"Adjusted EBITDA increased 34.3% to $113.5 million, representing 11.1% of sales, a 190-basis point increase."
Depreciation and Amortization Expense = $31.379M for the quarter and $321.488M for the 53 week fiscal year ending 1/2/21.
"For fiscal 2020, cash flow from operating activities increased by $87.5 million to $454.5 million, capital expenditures decreased $5.8 million to $97.9 million, and dividends paid increased $7.3 million to $167.3 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $307.5 million as of the end of fiscal 2020."
I have one round-trip: 5 shares +$7.54
M. Sold 5 SONA at $16.1:
This is an elimination of my position held in this Vanguard account. I still own shares in my Fidelity and Schwab accounts.
Quote: Southern National Bancorp of Virginia Inc.
Branch Map at page 4 (SEC Filed Exhibit 99.2 to Exhibit 99.1 Earnings Release)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Restarted SONA-Bought 10 at $8.73; 5 at $8.42; 5 at $8.25 (8/22/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $37.62 (3/5 sell only)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.10 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 2/11/21
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/20): SEC Filed Press Release
Sell Discussions: Sold Remaining 50 SONA at $15.05 South Gent's Comment Blog # 6; Item # 3 Sold 100 of 150 SONA at $13.12 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 8/18/2016 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha; Eliminated SONA Sold 100 at $12.8 and 100 at at $12.98-Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 12/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $206.24).
SONA Realized Gains to Date: $466.69 ($429.07 in prior trades)
N. Continued to Pare FNB in Schwab Taxable Account-Sold 31 at $13.23:
Quote: F.N.B. Corp.
Closing Price 3/19/21: FNB $13.17 -$0.14 -1.05%
Profit Snapshot: +$79.15
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
I discussed paring FNB in my last post and have nothing substantive to add here. Item # 1.E. Pared FNB in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 115 at $12.17 and Item #1.F. Pared FNB in Schwab Taxable-Sold 100 at $12.95 (3/13/21 Post)
This pare included all shares that had a cost basis over $10.
Old AC per share = $8.63 with the dividend yield at 5.56%.
Tangible Book Value Per Share as of 12/21/20 = $7.88
New Average Cost Per Share = $7.81 (77+ shares)
Yield at New AC = 6.15%
Last Ex Dividend: 3/4/21 (owned as of)
I have turned off dividend reinvestment for FNB in all accounts.
FNB Realized Gains To Date: $1,557.67
O. Continued to Pare STWD in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 shares at $25.22:
Quote: Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD)
Recent Pare Discussions: Item #1.N. Pared 7 STWD at $23.74 (3/13/21 Post); Items 2.C., 2.D. and 2.E (3/6/21 Post)(most recent substantive discussion)
Profit Snapshot = $27.84 (3/17 sell only); profit partly due to ROC adjustments
This lot was bought at $19.95 on 2/6/18:
Goal: Any profit on the shares before ROC adjustments.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.92 annually)
Starwood Property Trust Announces $0.48 Per Share Dividend for First Quarter 2021
New Average Cost per share this account = $14.97 (35+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday after pare |
Yield at AC = 12.83%
Next Ex Dividend: 3/30/21
Dividend Reinvestment: Turned off based on price
P. Continued to Pare FHB in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5.891 shares at $30.47:
Quote: First Hawaiian Inc. (FHB)
Closing Price 3/19/21: FHB $28.84 -$0.54 -1.84%
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
I explained this pare in a 3/18/21 comment. All shares purchased with dividends at over $20 were sold profitably. I kept shares bought for less than $20 with dividends.
I discussed the last earnings report in my last post: Item #1.B. Continued Paring FHB in my Fidelity Taxable Account- Sold 5 at $28.61 (3/13/21 Post);
Profit Snapshot: +$26.28 (3/18 sell only)
New Average Cost this Account: $19.45 (60+ shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 3/18 after pare/Unrealized Gain Then at $669.5 |
Selling these shares purchased only with dividends reduced my average cost per share from $20.02.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 ($1.04 annually)
Yield at New AC = 5.35%
Last Ex dividend: 2/19/21. I sold the lot purchased with this dividend.
I have turned off dividend reinvestment based on price/valuation. The price will have to fall at least 5% below my average cost per share to resume reinvestment.
FHB Realized Gains to Date: $267.36
The next pare in this account will be 10 shares that have an AC of 26.915 when and if the price exceeds $32. This will leave me with 50+ shares having an AC of $17.97, increasing my dividend yield at that AC to 5.79% assuming no change in the current dividend penny rate.
I will not be done paring until I sell 25 out of the remaining 60+ shares held in this account. If those highest cost shares are sold, my average cost would fall to $15.95, increasing my dividend yield to 6.52% using the current penny rate.
2. Trust Certificates-A Subcategory of Exchange Traded Bonds:
A. Bought 10 of the Trust Certificate PYS at $20.5-Fidelity Taxable:
Quote: Merrill Lynch Depositor Inc. PPLUS Cl A 6.3% TRUCs Series RRD-1 for R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co
Closing Price 3/19/21: PYS $21.20 +0.16 +0.77%
Investment Category: Trust Certificate, a subcategory of Exchange Traded Bonds
I mentioned this purchase in a 3/3/21 comment.
Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. Bought 10 PYS $18 (12/19/20 Post)
Underlying Bond Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Current Yield at $20.5 = 7.68%
YTM about 9.4% given the 18% discount to par value and assumes RRD makes all interest payments and survives to pay off the underlying bond in 2029.
FINRA Bond Detail (underlying bond owned by the PYS Grantor Trust, a 6.625% senior unsecured bond issued by R.R. Donnelley that matures on 4/1/2029 rated B3/B- which is deep into junk territory. This bond closed at 105.25 last Friday creating at that price a 5.8% YTM and a 6.29% current yield)
SEC Filed Press Release 2020 4th Quarter Earnings
I still own 50 share of the common bought at $1.37 as a Lotto. Item # 3.L. Bought 50 RRD at $1.37 (12/19/20 Post)
Quote: R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. (RRD)
B. Bought 10 of the Trust Certificate PYS at $20.9-Vanguard Taxable Account:
See Item # 2.A. above
At most, I may buy another 20 shares. I currently own 30 shares in taxable accounts and a few more in Roth IRAs.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sell of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and family members.
