Thursday, November 14, 2024

ARTY, ATLCZ, BCE, BEN, BOTZ, BRKL, CALF, CVBF, DOW, FCVSX, FHN, FZROX, HOPE, HTBK, MFC, PRWCX, SBSI, TRST, TY, VHCOX, UBFO, WMB

Economy

October CPI: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M10 Results

Month-To-Month All Items: .02%

Month-To-Month Core: .03%

Annual All Items: 2.6%

Annual Core: 3.3%

The annual numbers are not seasonally adjusted. 

Owners Equivalent Rent: +5.2% annual, with month-to-month at .4%, up from .3%.  Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2024 M10 Results

The third quarter report from Celanese, a large chemical producer, may be an early sign of trouble for the U.S. economy, which I discussed in a comment published on 11/8/24.

"During the third quarter, Celanese continued to navigate persistent demand weakness across key end-markets like paints, coatings, and construction, as well as rapid and acute downturns in Western Hemisphere automotive and industrial segments. . . Celanese will continue to take actions commensurate with the current demand environment. To this end, the Company intends to temporarily reduce the quarterly dividend by approximately 95 percent beginning in the first quarter of 2025." The company is reducing manufacturing costs during the 4th quarter by temporarily idling production facilities in every region. The company intends to draw down its $1M term credit facility in the first quarter to pay off $1.3B in maturing debt.  SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

A significant decline in chemical production can be a leading indicator of a recession about to develop. 

I am still adding to DOW in 1 share lots. 

Celanese closed at $123.5 on 11/4/24 and at $84.8 last Friday, 11/8. Celanese Corporation (CE) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance

I am now focused on what Trump does that will have economic impacts, rather than what he says that he will do. I do not need more proof that he is crazy and rarely makes an accurate factual statement. 

The main subject areas relating to my investment decisions are (1) increases in tariffs; (2) mass deportation of American consumers and workers; (3) tax cuts including eliminating the tax on SS benefits; and (4) budget cuts that may reduce GDP growth including any effort to impound funds authorized by existing laws including those provided in the Inflation Reduction Act - Wikipedia. Trump said last September that he would "rescind all unspent funds under the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act." US climate leader calls Trump's threatened IRA rollbacks 'a fool's errand' - ABC News

My Video: Trump Policies - Potential Impact on Inflation and GDP Growth - YouTube

I discussed Trump's threats to impound authorized funds in a YT video: Trump's Proposal To Impound Funds Authorized by Congress pursuant to laws that he does not like - YouTube

What Trump mass deportation plan would mean for immigrants and economy

Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ - YouTube Starting at 1:30, there is a factual discussion of what happened to the prices of washing machines when Trump increased tariffs on imports. The U.S. importer, who paid the tariff, increased the price of the imported washing machine to recoup the tariff and domestic manufacturers increased their prices as well. The price of dryers, which were not impacted by the tariff, went up as well.  The increased price of washing machines created an opportunity to increase the price of a related product that is often bought at the same time.  

A number of Trump's proposals will reduce federal spending. Unfortunately, U.S. GDP growth is significantly dependent on the federal government spending more than $1 Trillion of borrowed money annually. 


National Deficit | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data

For the government's fiscal year ending 9/30/1980, the total federal government debt was $909 billion. 

Historical Debt Outstanding | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data

Federal Debt to GDP: 

Understanding the National Debt | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data

Long before Trump announced that he was running again, I expressed the opinion that cutting the fiscal year budget deficit quickly by 1/3rd to 1/2 would cause a recession and lower government revenue. I would add that deporting 11 million consumers living in the U.S. would also lower GDP growth and would harm the states that depend on sales tax revenues created by their purchases.  

I can not change what is about to happen, but can only respond by adjusting my investment portfolio as economic events unfold. 

+++

Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post

Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $15,000 in principal amount

Corporate Bonds: $22,000 in principal amount 

Treasury Note Purchased in the Secondary Market: $4,000 in principal amount (Treated as fillers in my bond ladder)

Corporate Bond Sold (1): Proceeds of $968 with a $59.14 profit realized on the 1 bond, sold based on my new heightened credit risk assessment of the BDC Prospect Capital 

Outflow Individual Common Stocks: -$3,363.69

(Consisting of $3,733.94 in proceeds minus $370.25 in purchases; realized gains at +$881.49) 

Outflow Stock Funds: -$4,234.8 (realized gain = +$1,374)

Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$7,598.49

Realized Gains Stocks/Stock Funds (discussed in this post): +$2,255.49

Exchange Traded Bond: +$124.35 

2024 Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$58,940.27  (discussed in posts)

The actual outflow would be several thousand dollars higher when adding net sales that have not been discussed. 

++++

1. Stock Fund Sells

A. Sold 50 Shares of PRWCX at $38.94

Quote: T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Overview 

Proceeds: $1,947

PRWCX is my largest mutual fund position. 

This is my first sell transaction. The position dates back to 2015. 

The fund is closed to new investors. 

Position Prior to Pare: 1,053.595  shares

Price as of 11/7/24 Close

Profit Snapshot: +$967.35

Remaining Position: 1,003.595 shares

Average cost per share: Unchanged at $19.59 per share

Since the tax cost basis uses average cost rather than FIFO, there is no change in my average cost when I sell shares, but only when I buy.  

Last DiscussedItem # 3.E. Added to PRWCX - Bought $250 at $33.66 (12/23/23 Post) 

Dividends: Paid annually

PRWCX Stock Dividend History & Date

I have been taking the dividends in cash for several years and have been using the payments to partially fund living expenses. 

Per share Dividend/My Payment - Recent History

2023 = $1.4075 ($1,482.93)

2022 = $2.8079 ($2,958.39)

2021 = $3.41  ($3,592.76)

T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Stock Price | Morningstar (rated at 5 stars)

PRWCX – Portfolio –  Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)

B. Sold 2 VHCOX at $90.66:

Quote: Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund - Investor Class (VHCOX)

Proceeds: $181.32

Sponsor's website: VHCOX (closed to new investors)

Expense Ratio: .43%

Number of Stocks: 191 as of 9/30/24

Profit Snapshot: +$100.69

Position after pare: 65+ shares

Price as of 11/6/24 Close

Average cost: $40.31

I can not reduce the the AC by selling my highest cost shares. This tax cost basis is not based on FIFO accounting but on average cost, so all shares have been assigned the same AC. 

Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/24

Dividends: Paid Annually in December (some intra-year special dividends)

Last Annual Payment

$1.81 rounded down


Annual Dividend Per share (some special dividends): All rounded up or down

2022: $5.86
2021: $8.76
2020: $7.0
2019: $4.38
2018: $6.92
2017: $3.03
2016: $3.12
2015:  $2.73
2014: $2.19

I have been taking the dividend in cash for several years. 

2023 =  $116.36
2022 = $376.65
2021 = $562.88
2020 = $449.61
2019 = $341.55
2018 = $540.21

VHCOX – Portfolio –  Morningstar Lists top 25 holdings. 

Last Buy DiscussionItem # 3.D. Added to VHCOX - Bought $250 (12/23/23 Post) 

Original Purchase - 2013: Most of my position originated from a $3,000 purchase made in 2013. Item # 5 Initiated Position in VHCOX (4/9/13 Post)

Prior Sell DiscussionsItem # 3.A. Pared VHCOX-Sold $500 at $71.62 and $500 at $73.02 (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $470.23); Item # 4 Sold 24+ VHCOX at $71.16 (1/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $562.11); Item # 6-Sold All VHCOX Shares Bought with Dividends (12/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.86): Item # 2.A. Sold 115+ VHCOX at $57.97 (3/1/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $522.35) 

As I recall, dividends were reinvested for a few years after my initial purchase which added to my share count. 

VHCOX Realized Gains to Date: $1,878.24

C. Sold 5 FZROX at $20.77; 5 at $21.01:

Quote:  Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund Overview 

Proceeds: $208.9

Sponsor's website: FZROX 

Expense Ratio: Zero 

A similar low cost ETF is the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) which has a .03% expense ratio. 

Last DiscussedItem # 4.K. Added 50 FZROX at $8.57 (4/4/20 Post) 

Profit Snapshot: $115.57



Average Cost: $9.33 (70+ shares)

I can not reduce the AC per share by selling the highest cost lots. Average cost per share accounting is being used. 

Dividend: Paid Annually

I view the dividend on any U.S. total stock market fund as immaterial. 

FZROX –  Morningstar (rated at 3 stars)

D. Eliminated FCVSX - Sold 12+ at $36.03

Quote: Fidelity Convertible Securities Fund Overview 

Proceeds: $449.26

Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Added $50 to FCVSX at $32.24 (3/1/24 Post) 

Sponsor's website: FCVSX 

Expense Ratio: .71%

Profit Snapshot: $33.44

Dividend:  Paid Semiannually

Last 2 Dividends: $.52 per share

Yield at $36.03 Using $.52 annual: 1.44%

I view the dividend yield to be immaterial.  

FCVSX-Morningstar (rated 4 stars)

ETF Alternatives

iShares Convertible Bond ETF | ICVT (expense ratio .2%)

CWB: SPDR® Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF (expense ratio .4%)

E. Eliminated TY  - Sold 15 at $33.8

Quote: Tri-Continental Corp. Overview - Stock CEF

Proceeds: $506.99

TY was one of the CEFs formed prior to the 1929 stock market crash that survived the Great Depression. The IPO date was 1/14/1929. 

Sponsor's website: Tri-Continental Corporation

Expense Ratio: .66%

TY SEC Filings

Tri-Continental Corporation - SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/24 (As of 6/30/24, the value of investments was reported at $1.848+B with a cost of $1.493+B)

Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/24

Profit Snapshot: $97.64

Last DiscussedItem # 3.A. Added to TY - Bought 5 at $26.44 (11/18/23 Post)Item # 1.G. Bought 10 TY at $27.72 (9/2/23 Post)

Data Date of 11/6/24 Trade

Closing Market Price: $38.34

Closing Net Asset Value per share: $33.76

Discount: -11.95%

Average 3 Year Discount: -11.76%

Sourced:  TY-CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)

Dividends: Quarterly at a variable rate. 

TY Dividend History | Nasdaq

I have taken the dividends in cash.  

Tri-Continental Corporation (TY)-Morningstar  

Last EliminationItem # .H. Eliminated TY - Sold 10 at $33.5 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.15)

F. Pared CALF - Sold 5 Shares at $48.25


Quote: Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF Overview

Proceeds: $241.25

Sponsor's website: CALF | Pacer ETFs

The fund selects the highest, 12 month trailing free cash flow yield stocks in the S&P Small Cap 600 index.   

I view free cash flow yield to be a valid investment criteria for stock selection, but using it in isolation from others may result in some stocks being selected that will perform poorly. 

Using this metric as the sole criteria will lead to some stocks being included that are only temporarily generating good free cash flow and that is recognized by market participants who value the stock with a low P/E  recognizing that the past 12 months is not likely to be repeated in subsequent reporting periods.

For this fund, free cash flow is calculated by subtracting capital expenditures from cash flow. The resulting number is then divided by enterprise value (market capitalization plus debt minus cash and cash equivalents). 

Expense Ratio: .59

Profit Snapshot = $.6

New Average cost per share$41.52 (31 shares) 

Snapshot Intraday on 11/7/24

Dividend: Paid semiannually. 

CALF Stock Dividend History & Date

I view the dividend yield as immaterial without a capital gains distribution. The last one was in 2021. 

Some Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.F. Added to CALF - Bought 1 at $42,96; 1 at $43.49  (9/19/24 Post)Item # 2.H. Added to CALF - Bought 3 at $42.33 (7/12/24 Post)Item # 1.D. Added to CALF - Bought 2 at $42.96 (7/5/24 Post);Item # 2.H. Bought 1 CALF at $33.5 (6/22/22 Post)Item # 2.O.  Bought 1 CALF at $37.52; 2 at $36.48 (5/26/22 Post)

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in CALF - Sold 8+ at $42.18 - Schwab Account (9/2/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.38)

CALF Page at Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)

G. Eliminated BOTZ - Sold 10 at $33.58

Quote: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF

Proceeds: 335.84

Sponsor's website: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ)

Expense Ratio: .68%

Profit Snapshot: $30.14 

Last DiscussedItem # 6.A. Added to BOTZ - Bought 1 $30.56; 1 at $29.29; 3 at $29.54 4(8/2/24 Post) 

Last Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.B. Eliminated BOTZ - Sold 9 at $26.53  (5/20/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $15.39); Item # 1.J. Sold 5 BOTZ at $39.02 (10/22/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $74.52)

BOTZ - Morningstar (unrated)

BOTZ – Portfolio: Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)

H. Eliminated ARTY  -Sold 10 at $36.12

Quote iShares Future AI & Tech ETF Overview 

Proceeds: $364.24

The symbol changed to ARTY from IRBO shortly after I bought this ETF. 

Last Discussed: Item #6.B. Added to IRBO- Bought 1 at $33.1; 4 at $32.12 (8/2/24 Post) 

Sponsor's website: iShares Future AI & Tech ETF | ARTY

Profit Snapshot: $28.57

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 1.I. Eliminated IRBO - Sold 2 at $33.5 (10/2/2021 Post)(profit snapshot = $32.87)

ARTY- Morningstar Rated at 2 stars. 

ARTY – Portfolio –-Morningstar Lists top 25 holdings

2. Corporate Bonds

The trades discussed below were made through last Friday. 

A. Bought 2 Textron 4% SU Maturing on 3/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.051

Issuer: Textron Inc. (TXT) 

TXT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

TXT SEC Filings 

TXT SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 4.724%

Current Yield at TC: 4.038%

B. Bought 2 Cubesmart LP 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.26

Issuer: Operating entity for CubeSmart (CUBE), a storage REIT, who guarantees the notes.  Prospectus 

CUBE SEC Filings

CUBE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 

I have a small ball position in the common stock. (Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Pared CUBE Again - Sold 1 at $53.25 (9/24/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.28)  I currently own 9 shares with an average cost per share at $21.19. {Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.E. Bought 19 CUBE at $22, 2 at $21.55, 1 at $19.74 (4/25/20 Post)}

My last purchase of this 4% SU bond was at a total cost of 97.723 which created at that time a YTM of 5.68%. Item # 6.A. (6/14/24 Post) 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 4.799%

Current Yield at TC = 4.03%

I now own 10 bonds and will not be buying more. 

Instead, I will start to extend the maturity by buying the 3.125% Cubesmart SU bond that matures on 9/1/2026. I discuss my first purchase of that note in Item 1.C. below.  

C. Bought 2 Cubesmart L.P. 3.125% SU Maturing on 9/1/26 at a Total Cost of 97.17

Issuer: See Item 1.B. above. 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 4.765%

Current yield at TC: 3.216%

D. Bought 2 AON 3.875% SU Maturing on 12/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.207

Issuer: Aon PLC (AON) 

AON Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AON SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/A-

YTM at Total Cost: 4.616%

Current Yield at TC = 3.906%

I am starting to replace the 4 AON 3.5% SU that matured on 6/14/24: 


Last Bond Offering (2/24):

This debt raise was to finance the acquisition of NFP. Aon completes acquisition of NFP to bring more capability to clients - Apr 25, 2024Aon to acquire NFP, a leading middle-market provider of risk, benefits, wealth and retirement plan advisory solutions - Dec 20, 2023

E. Bought 2 CNA Financial 4.5% SU Maturing on 3/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.653:

Issuer: CNA Financial Corp. (CNA) 

CNA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CNA SEC Filings 

CNA SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/A- 

YTM at Total Cost: 4.77%

Current Yield at TC = 4.516%

Last Bond Offering (2/24): Prospectus for $500M 5.125% SU maturing in 2034. The proceeds were used to redeem a 3.95% SU maturing on 5/15/24. 

F. Bought 2 Welltower 4.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 4/1/26 at a Total Cost of  99.453

Issuer: Welltower Inc. (WELL) - A REIT

WELL SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/25 

FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 4.655%

Current Yield at TC = 4.273%

I currently own 5 Welltower 4% SU notes that mature on 6/1/25.

G. Bought 2 Ameren 3.65% SU Maturing on 2/15/26 at a Total Cost of 98.751

Issuer: Ameren Corp (AEE) - Utility Holding Company 

AEE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AEE SEC Filings 

AEE SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 4.668%

Current Yield at TC:  3.696%

Ameren's operating utilities issue first mortgage bonds that will have higher credit ratings than the SU debt issued by the holding company.  

I currently own 2 Ameren Illinois 3.25% first mortgage bonds that mature on 3/1/25 that are rated at A1/A. Bond Page | FINRA.org The other operating subsidiary is known as Union Electric doing business as Ameren Missouri. That entity recently sold $450M of a 5.125% First Mortgage bond maturing in 2055. Prospectus 

H. Bought 2 W.P. Carey 4.25% SU Maturing on 10/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.201 - IB Account

Issuer: W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) -  A REIT

WPC SEC Filings

SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 4.693%

Current Yield at TC: 4.284%

I now own 6 bonds. 

I own 10 WP Carey 4% SU bonds that mature on 2/1/25. 

I had 4 WP Carey 4.6% SU bonds mature on 4/1/24:

I. Bought 2 General Motors Finance 4.3% SU Maturing on 7/13/25 at a Total Cost of 99.777:

Issuer: Wholly owned subsidiary of General Motors Co. (GM) who does not guarantee the notes.  

GM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

GM SEC Filings 

GM SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 4.634%

Current Yield at TC = 4.31%

I refer to this kind of purchase as can kicking down the road. 

I had 2 General Motors Finance 3.5% SU notes mature on 11/6/24:

IB Account +$24.76

I have 2 General Motors Finance 4% SU maturing on 1/15/25.

I have 2 General Motors 4.35% SU maturing on 4/9/25.

I own 2 General Motors Finance 4% SU maturing on 4/17/25.

J. Bought 1 Ventas LP 4.125% SU Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.304

Issuer:  Operating entity of Ventas Inc. (VTR) who guarantees the notes. 

Prospectus

VTR SEC Filings

SEC Filed Earnings Press for the Q/E 9/30/24 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 SU debt is listed at page 15

FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 4.736%

Current Yield at TC: 4.154%

I now own 3 bonds. 

I own 5 Ventas LP 3.5% SU notes, guaranteed by Ventas, that mature on 2/1/25

K. Bought 1 Wells Fargo 4.1% SU Maturing on 6/3/26 at a Total Cost of 99.175

Issuer:  Wells Fargo & Co.  (WFC) 

WFC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

WFC SEC Filings 

WFC SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: A3

YTM at Total Cost: 4.653%

Current Yield at TC: 4.134%

L. Bought 2 PPL Capital 3.1% SU Maturing on 5/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.702

Issuer: PPL Funding, guaranteed by PPL Corp. (PPL) - a utility holding company. 

Prospectus 

PPL SEC Filings 

PPL SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 9/30/24 

FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 4.696%

Current Yield at TC = 3.173%

Last Bond Offering: Prospectus for 5.25% SU note maturing in 2034

3. Regional Bank Stock Eliminations - Taxable Accounts Only

Most of the eliminations occurred in my Vanguard Roth IRA account. I do not discuss stock trades made in the RI accounts. All regional bank stocks were eliminated in that RI account. Today 11/14/24, I finished eliminating all  regional bank stocks in another Roth IRA account. 

The regional bank stocks rallied strongly on 11/6 based IMO on a mistaken belief that an anticipated more favorable regulatory environment during Trump's second term would solve what are continuing operating problems among many of these banks that includes NIM contraction and negative year -over-year declines in E.P.S. Many are starting to experience higher nonperforming loans and charge-offs (e.g. office building loans).

On 11/6/24, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose $7.93 or 13.41%. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance

I already knew about these negative trends since I had already reviewed third quarter reports when this sector went into overdrive on 11/6 based on hopium that Trump's regulatory policies would make some material difference.    

Gateway Post: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

A. Eliminated FHN - Sold 25 at $19.89:  

Quote: First Horizon National Corp.  (FHN)

Proceeds: $497.31

FHN SEC Filings

Last Discussed: Item # 1.H. Added to FHN - Bought 5 at $11.5 (9/16/23 Post)Item # 3.F. Added to FHN - Bought 5 at $9.51 (5/13/23 Post)

Profit Snapshot: $155.65

Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share ($.6 annually), last raised from $.14 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment. The dividend was slashed from $.45 to $.20 effective for the 2008 second quarter payment and then slashed again to $.01 effective for the 2011 second quarter. 

Dividend History: I rate the history as poor. 

Last Ex Dividend: 9/13/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release 

Net Income: $213M 

GAAP E.P.S. $.4, up from $.23

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.42, up from .$27

NIM: 3.31%, up from 3.17% 

Efficiency Ratio: 61.89%

Charge Off Ratio: .15%

NPL Ratio: .92%, viewed by me as high given the current U.S. economic expansion. 

Largest GainsItem # 1. Eliminated FHN - Sold 5 at $24.38; 20+ at $24.47; and 47+ at $24.38  (11/15/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,071.04); Item # 1. Pared FHN in Fidelity Account - Sold 450 at $24.33 (11/1/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $1,261.77

FHN Realized Gains to Date: $3,201.72

B. Eliminated  CVBF - Sold 10 at $21.44; 5 at $23- Two Accounts

Quote: CVB Financial Corp.  (CVBF)

Proceeds: $329.39

CVBF SEC Filings

CVBF Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Profit Snapshot: $83.32

Last DiscussedItem #3.B. Started CVBF Again - Bought 10 at $16.43  (8/21/24 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share, last raised from $.19 effective for the 2022 4th quarter payment. The dividend was at $.10 in 2014.  

CVBF Dividend History | Nasdaq

Last Ex Dividend: 9/30/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

E.P.S. = $.37, down from $.42

NIM = 3.05%, down from 3.31%

Net interest income declined compared to the 2023 3rd Q:

Efficiency Ratio: 46.53% 

NPA Ratio: .15%

Charge off ratio: Net recovery of $157K

ROTCE: 14.93%

Risk Based Capital Ratio: 16.6%

Tangible Book Value per share: $10.17

Extremely Poor Interest Rate Risk Management in Owned Securities Portfolio (normal for regional banks): 

Note the last sentence where the bank stated that it sold during the 3rd quarter AFS securities with a book value of $312M at an $11.6M loss but still had a an unrealized loss in its portfolio of $712.543M unnetted with a small unrealized gain. 

Average Weighted Yield on Owned Securities: 2.67%

10-Q at page 10

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 6.D. Eliminated CVBF - Sold 18+ at $19.14  (8/12/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $75.39)

Largest GainItem # 4.A. Eliminated CVBF - Sold 10 at $25.7; 5 at $25.66 (12/27/2022 Post)(profit snapshots = $129.6) 

CVBF Realized Gains to Date: $354.11

C. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in HTBK - Sold 70 at $10.7:

Quote: Heritage Commerce Corp. (HTBK) 

Proceeds: $749.23

HTBK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

HTBK SEC Filings

Last DiscussedItem # 4.J. Pared Duplicate HTBK Position - Bought 5+ at $10.11 (8/29/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.58) 

Profit Snapshot: Net of $105.25

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 1.H. Added to HTBK in Vanguard Account - Bought 5 at $8.57 - Vanguard Account (12/2/23 Post)Item # 3.B. Added 5 HTBK at $6.9 - Vanguard Account (5/13/23 Post)Item # 2.A. Added 5 HTBK at $7.92 - Vanguard Account (4/22/23 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.13 per share, last raised from $.12 effective for the 2020 first quarter payment.  

HTBK Stock Dividend History & Date

The total return with the dividend was acceptable to me. 

The lack of meaningful dividend growth among regional bank stocks over the past 5 years is a negative but understandable given the pandemic, the bank failures during that period due to deposit runs, and the negative impacts flowing from the Federal Reserve's monetary policies including the artificial suppression of interest rates through Q/E and ZIRP followed by the rapid increase in the federal funds rate starting in March 2022.  

Last Ex Dividend: 11/7/24

I sold on the ex dividend date. 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

E.P.S. $.17, down from $.24

NIM: 3.17%, down from 3.57%

Efficiency Ratio: 65.37%, up from 52.89% (up is bad)

ROTCE: 8.27% (below average)

NPA Ratio: .13% (good)

NPL Ratio: .21% (good)

Consider to Repurchase Price: <$8

My consider to repurchase prices assumes that no intervening event has occurred that would cause me to lower my consider to repurchase price (e.g. a recession) 

For a regional bank stock, other considerations for lowering the price would be continued year-over-year declines in earnings, significant increases in the NPL and Charge Off ratios, and unfavorable trends in NIM.  

A significant improvement in NIM could result in a higher consider to repurchase price. 

D. Eliminated Last Duplicate Position in HTBK - Sold 78+ Shares at $10.55

See Item # 3.C. Above. 

Proceeds: $829.59 

Profit Snapshot: Net of $115.43 

The average cost per share in this account was at $9.18, creating a dividend yield of 5.66%. 

HTBK Realized Gains to Date: $256.05 

E. Eliminated Duplicate Position in HOPE - Sold 22 at $14.12

Quote: Hope Bancorp Inc.  (HOPE)

Proceeds:$310.63

HOPE SEC Filings

HOPE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Profit Snapshot:  $33.04

Dividend: Quarterly at $.14 per share, last raised from $.13 effective for the 2018 second quarter payment. The dividend was at $.10 in 2014. Hope Bancorp, Inc. Dividend History | Nasdaq

Last Ex Dividend: 11/7/24 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

GAAP E.P.S.:  $.20, down from $.25

Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.21 

NIM: 2.55%, down from 2.83%

Efficiency Ratio: 69.57% (too high IMO)

Net Interest Income: $104.809M down from $135.378M

NPL Ratio: .76%, up from .42%

Coverage ratio: 147.62%, down from 261.8%

F. Eliminated SBSI - Sold 5 at $37.51

Quote:  Southside Bancshares

Proceeds: $187.53

SBSI SEC Filings

SBSI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

Profit Snapshot: $55.21

Last DiscussedItem # 2.C. Restarted SBSI - Bought 5 at $26.46 (7/12/24 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.35 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.  

Southside Bancshares, Inc. (SBSI) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Next Ex Dividend: 11/21/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release 

E.P.S. = $.68, up from $.60

NIM: 2.95%, down from 3.02%

All of the following numbers are good. 

Efficiency Ratio: 51.9%

Charge Off Ratio: .04%

NPA Ratio: .09%

NPL Ratio: .17%

Coverage Ratio: 610.37%

ROTCE: 13.69%

Tangible Book Value per share: $19.87, up from $17.28

SBSI Realized Gains to Date: $646.14

Largest Gains - Over $90Item # 2.F. Eliminated SBSI-Sold 25 at $30.03 (3/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.15); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot =   $97.05); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 3 Sold 107+ SBSI at $20.5 (7/18/11 Post)(profit snapshots = $208.69) 

Current Position: None

Consider to repurchase range: $25 to $30. 

G. Eliminated TRST - Sold 5 at $37.81

Quote: Trustco Bank Corp.  (TRST)

Proceeds:  $189.5

TRST SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: $56.05

Last DiscussedItem # 2.F. Restarted TRST - Bought 5 at $26.6 5 (6/20/24 Post) I discussed the 2024 first quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.35 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment. 

TRST Stock Dividend History & Date

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): 

Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter

E.P.S. = $.68, down from $.77

NIM:  2.61%, down from  2.85% (Neither number is good, and the trend is a matter of concern)

Net Interest Income: $38.671M, down from $42.121M

NPL Ratio: .38%, up from .36% 

Coverage ratio: 256.9%

Average Interest Rate Owned Securities (available for sale) = 2.51%

Pathetic interest rate risk management which was the norm for banks in the 2021 to present period who continued to own low interest rate and longer term securities even though it was obvious in 2021 that short term rates would have to rise dramatically and Q/E would end. 

Some Sell Discussions: There was a 1 for 5 reverse stock split in 2021. Item # 3.C. Eliminated TRST in Fidelity Account - Sold 41+ at $30.33 (2/2/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = net of $31.36); Item # 2.C. Eliminated TRST in 2 Taxable Accounts - Sold 5 at $36.84; 5 at $37.02 (3/11/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $41.28); Item # 3.A. Eliminated TRST in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 20 at $38 (12/13/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $129.4).   

The following sales were made prior to the reverse stock split. Item # 3.G. Eliminated TRST-Sold 15+ in Schwab Taxable at $7.45 and 40+ in Fidelity Taxable at $7.44 (5/14/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $111); Item # 1.D. Pared TRST-Sold 10 at $6.72 (1/9/21 Post)Item # 3.A. Eliminated TRST Sold 56+ at $8.8 (11/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.51); Item # 2.B. Sold 125 TRST at $8.6  (11/2/19 Post)Item # 2 Sold 100 TRST at $6.69 Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 7/26/16-South Gent | Seeking AlphaItem # 1 Sold 315+ TRST at $6.92 (1/11/15 Post)(largest gain to date = $549.47)Sold 50 TRST at $7.29 (11/25/13 Post)Sold 308 TRST at $6.64 (10/28/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $238.38)(on a reverse split adjusted basis, the sales price was $33.2)

TRST Realized Gains to Date: $1,559.59

Current Position: None. 

Consider to Repurchase: <$28

H. Eliminated Duplicate Position in UBFO - Sold 10 at $9.05:

Quote: United Security Bancshares (UBFO)

Proceeds: $90.5

SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: +$5.6

Last DiscussedItem # 2.C. Added 10 UBFO at $5.92 (4/22/23 Post)Item # 1.J. Added 5 UBFO at $6.17 (4/6/23 Post)Item # 1.D. Started UBFO - Bought 10 at $6.29 (4/1/23 Post) I still own those shares.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share, last raised from $.11 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment.  

Last Ex Dividend: 10/7/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter. 

E.P.S. $.22, unchanged

NIM: 4.2%, up from 4.09%

Net Interest Income: $11.812M, down slightly from $11.921M, but up from $11.522M in the 2024 second quarter: 

Efficiency Ratio: 52.47%, down from 54,63% (down is good)

NPL Ratio: 1.32% (too high IMO), down from 1.45%

Charge off ratio: .27%, up from .2%

Tangible Book Value per share: $7.67, up from $6.45

Remaining Position: 25 shares with an average cost per share at $6.12 (dividend yield at AC = 7.84%; discount to TBV per share as of 9/30 was 20.2%)

I. Eliminated Last Fractional Share in BRKL Purchased with Dividend

Quote: Brookline Bancorp (BKRL)

Proceeds: $3.06

BRKL SEC Filings

Brookline Bancorp, Inc.-Corporate Profile

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 2. E. Bought 5 BRKL at $8.24 (6/28/24 Post);  Item # 2.B. Added 5 BRKL at $8.23 (11/11/2023 Post)

Last Sell DiscussionItem # 3.F. Pared BKRL - Sold 13+ at $10.16 (1/20/24 Post)

Profit Snapshot:  $.63

New Average cost per share: $8.31 (23 Shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 11/6/24 after pare

Dividend: Quarterly at $.135 per share ($.54 annually), last from $.13 effective for the 2022 4th quarter. 

BRKL Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at New AC = 6.5%

Next Ex Dividend: 11/15/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter. 

E.P.S. $.23, down from $.26

NIM: 3.07%, down from 3.19%

Efficiency Ratio: 64.85% (too high IMO)

ROTCE: 8.44% (too low IMO)

Charge off ratio: .16%, down from .47%

NPA Ratio: .62%, up from .46% 

Tangible Book Value per share: $10.09, up from $9.11 

Discount of $8.31 AC per share to TBV: 16.75%

4. Other Small Ball Sells

Most of my stock and stock fund selling is related to my risk management, taking into consideration that I do not have to take any risks, the current yields of risk free investments in treasury bills, and the current yields of low credit risk, short term investment grade bonds. 

The return of my money is more important to me than the return on my money. 

Risk management involves lowering my dollar allocation to stocks. 

This may be accomplished simply by eliminating positions as I have recently done with regional bank stocks. 

Another method, reflected in Items A. and B. below, is to profitably sell small lots or selling shares profitably that have been bought with dividends.  

The 5 MFC share sell did not reduce my average cost per share. The 5 WMB share sell only reduced my average cost per share 1 cent. 

Most of the time, using either FIFO or specific identification methods of tax cost allocations, I sell my highest cost lots that reduce my dollar exposure, increases my dividend yield, reduces my tax bite, and lowers my average cost per share. 

I still have a meaningful stock allocation, but the allocation as a percentage of my total portfolio is close to 10%. 

A. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $55.68

Quote: Williams Cos. (WMB) -Energy Infrastructure Company

Proceeds: $278.39 

Homepage | Williams Companies

WMB SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Last DiscussedItem # 4.D. Sold 5 WMB at $52.28  (10/24/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $141.2) 

Last Buy DiscussionsItem # 2 Added 95 WMB at $24.98 and 5 at $23.8 (8/20/21 Post)Item # 3.B. Added 5 WMB at $24.2 (10/8/21 Post)

Profit Snapshot: +$158.29

New Average cost per share: $23.89 (65+ shares)


I can not reduce the AC per share much since the remaining shares were bought close to the same price. 

DividendQuarterly at $.475 per share ($1.9 annually), last raised from $.4475 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment. 

Williams Companies, Inc - Dividend History

Yield at $23.897.95%

Last Ex Dividend: 9/13/24  (owned 95+ as of)

Next Ex Dividend: 12/13/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): 

SEC Filed Press Release 

Revenues: $2.653B

GAAP E.P.S. $.58

Funds from Operations: $1.445B 

FFO Dividend Coverage: 2.65

Other Sell Discussions Item # 3.C. Pared WMB Again - Sold 5 at $50.3; 5 at $51.31 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $267.84); Item # 2.A. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $47.32; 5 at $49.33 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $251.11); Item # 1.B. Sold 5 WMB at $45.29 (9/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.34); Item # 3.C. Pared WMB - Sold 4 at $40.27 (5/17/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.02); Item # 1.A. Pared WMB - Sold 10 at $36.12 (1/12/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $127.61); Item # 6.A. Eliminated WMB Duplicate Positions - Sold 10+ at $35.23; 5 at $35.33 (8/12/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $190.8)

WMB Realized Gains to Date: $1,309.49 (excludes gains in my Roth IRA accounts)

WMB SU Bonds Owned

6 of the 3.9% Maturing on 1/15/25 (as those bonds near maturity, I will buy in advance of the maturity date 6 WMB bonds to replace them)

4 of the 4% Maturing on 9/15/25 (a 2 bond purchase will be discussed in my next post) 

I had 4 WMB 4.55% SU bonds mature on 6/24/24

B. Pared MFC Again Sold 5 Shares at $32.28

Quote: Manulife Financial Corp.  (MFC)

Proceeds: $161.43

CAD Priced Shares: Manulife Financial Corp (Canada: Toronto)

Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

The CAD has recently weakened against the USD. That will cause the USD priced shares to underperform the shares priced in CADs and will also lower my dividend yield. Over the past 3 months through 11/8, MFC:CA was up 28.46% compared to +26.75% for MFC. 

MFC Analyst Estimates

MFC Profile page at Reuters

MFC SEC Filings (foreign issuer forms)

Last DiscussedItem # 3.B. Pared MFC Again - Sold  5 at $30.36 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $94.9); Item # 2.B. Pared MFC - Sold 5 at $29.29 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $91.44, discussed second quarter earnings report, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24)

Profit Snapshot: +$104.39

Average cost per share$11.41 (85 Shares)

The average cost will remain the same since I am sourcing the small ball sells from the same 100 share purchase at $11.41. Item # 2.D. Bought 100 MFC at $11.41 (5/9/2020 Post)

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.40 per share

Dividends | Manulife

Dividend in USDsManulife Financial Corporation (MFC) Stock Dividend History & Date

Next Ex Dividend: 11/20/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release  

Life insurance company accounting is beyond my comprehension and I have never owned enough stocks in that sector to make it worthwhile to learn something that I do want to spend time learnings, particularly since I would be unlikely to retain the understanding achieved after many weeks of study. I also have zero training in accounting. 

In CADs

Core E.P.S. C$1

USD equivalent: $.73 with the consensus at $.68 per Schwab 

Core Earnings: C$1.839B 

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers)

Morningstar (11/7/24): 2 stars with a fair value estimate of  $25.2 and no moat

S&P (11/8/24): 4 stars with a 12 month PT of $36, raised $2 in response to the third quarter earnings report. s

Other Sell DiscussionsItem # 1.G. Eliminated Duplicate Position in MFC - Sold 14 at $20.1 - Fidelity Account (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $143.61); Item # 1.A. Sold 32 MFC at $20.63 (2/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $104.79); Item # 2.A. Sold 20 MFC at $18.78 (11/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.69); 

South Gent's Comment Blog # 7: Sold 100 MFC at $18.28 (profit = $481.06; IB Account):

Another round-trip, which was not discussed, generated at a $44.81 profit: 

RI Account

Other small gains were not discussed.

Lowest Prices Paid in Last 5 yearsItem # 2.C. Bought in Fidelity Account 10 MFC at $10.15; 2 at $9.3; 2 at $8.9  (5/9/20 Post) Those lots have been sold. 

MFC Realized Gains to Date: $1,128.68

Owned Reset Equity PreferredMFC-PM.TO, resets in a few days for five years at a 2.36% spread to the five year Canadian bond yield; Item # 2.A. Bought 100 MFCPRM:CA at C$15.14 (7/25/20 Post)

Owned SU Bond: 2 SU 4.15% Maturing on 3/4/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org 

C. Eliminated BEN - Sold 5 at $21.48:

Quote: Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN) - Asset Manager

Proceeds: $107.38

Last DiscussedItem # 1A. Started BEN - Bought 5 at $19.75 (8/29/24 Post) I discussed the second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release I bought that lot on the day the company reported an SEC investigation into BEN's Western Asset Management Unit and its allocation of derivative trades among managed accounts. The stock declined that day 12.56%. I mentioned that it was impossible for an individual investor to quantify the potential legal exposure.   

I decided to exit the position after BEN announced in its third quarter earnings release "preliminary net loss of $84.7 million or $0.19 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2024". There was a $389.2M impairment charge relating to certain mutual fund management contracts. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Several brokers downgraded the stock and/or reduced their price targets. I decided that this one was not worth owning.

BEN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

BEN SEC Filings

Profit Snapshot: $8.63


Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 9/30/24

5. Small Ball Buys

A. Started BCE - Bought 5 at $27.9; 5 at $27.4



Quote: BCE Inc. (BCE) 

Cost: $276.5

BCE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

BCE SEC Filings (foreign issuer forms)

BCE Investor Relations 

2023 SEC Filed Annual Information Form A description of BCE's businesses can be found at pages 5-15. 

Recent Material NewsBCE to acquire Ziply Fiber, accelerating its fibre growth strategy across North America The cost is about C$5B in cash and the assumption of about C$2B in debt. BCE  will "use estimated C$4.2 billion net proceeds from sale of its ownership stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) towards funding the Acquisition." BCE sells its minority stake in MLSE | BCE Inc. In connection with these developments, "BCE intends to maintain its annual common share dividend at the current level of $3.99 per share during the financial year ending December 31, 2025" and will "pause dividend growth until BCE's dividend payout and net debt leverage ratios are tracking towards our target policy ranges, subject to review annually by the BCE Board of Directors."  Ziply Fiber provides fiber service in 4 northwestern U.S. states. Ziply Fiber - Wikipedia 

Last DiscussedItem # 9 Sold 100 BCE at C$27.11 (10/10/2009 Post) I have no recollection of buying this stock.  

Profit Snapshots (as converted into USDs): +$166.41

2009 BCE 100 Shares +$75.94


2007 BCE 50 Shares +$90.47

I have not owned this stock in a taxable account since 2009.  

Average cost per share: $27.65 (10 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at C$.9975 per share, last raised from $.9675 effective for the 2024 second quarter payment.   


Last 4 Dividends in USDs: $2.92, round up from $2.9154


Yield at US$27.65 Using US$2.92 Annual: 10.56%, rounded up. 

Next Dividend: 12/16/24

Canada Withholding Tax: Canada will withhold a 15% tax when the dividend is paid into a U.S. citizens taxable account but not when the dividend is paid into a U.S. citizens individual retirement accounts (regular IRA or Roth IRA). That assumes the broker is claiming tax treaty benefits. There may be an issue with Keogh accounts, but I have not had to deal with that issue.   

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): BCE reports third quarter 2024 results  

BCE reports in Canadian Dollars. 

The net loss of $1.36 per share "attributable to approximately $2.1 billion in non-cash media asset impairment charges"

Free cash flow: 


 
B. Bought 1 DOW at $47.3; 1 at $46.45:


Quote: Dow Inc. (DOW)

Cost: $93.75

DOW SEC Filings

DOW  Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

New Average Cost per share: $50.52 (12+ shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.70 ($2.8 annually)

DOW Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at New AC: 5.54%

Next Ex Dividend: 11/29/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in my last post and have nothing further to add here. Item #2.G. Added to DOW - Bought 2 at $48.39; 1 at $47.82 (11/7/24 Post)SEC Filed Press Release 

6. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction

The 3 and 6 month treasury bills were auctioned last Tuesday since Monday was a holiday. 

A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 11/12/24 Auction

182 Day Bill

Matures on 5/15/25

Interest: $108.95

Investment Rate: 4.467%

B. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 11/11/24 Auction

91 Day Bill

Matures on 2/13/25

Interest: $111.73

Investment Rate: 4.532%

7. Treasury Note Purchased in the Secondary Market

A. Bought 2 Treasury Notes 4.25% Coupon Maturing on 10/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.9257:

YTM: 4.33%

I now own 4. 

B. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.25% Coupon Maturing 1/13/26

YTM: 4.379%

C. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4% Coupon Maturing on 12/15/25

YTM: 4.391

8. Corporate Bonds Sold in the Secondary Market

When doing my net cash flow calculations, I do not subtract the proceeds from selling a corporate bond in the secondary market which action has become rare over the past 3 years, but was common in prior years to harvest gains before bonds matured. 

A. Sold 1 Prospect Capital 3.706% SU at $96.9


Issuer: Prospect Capital Corp. (PSEC) - Externally Managed BDC

SEC Filings 

Proceeds at $96.8 or $968 plus accrued interest of $11.32. 

Profit Snapshot: $59.15

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Prior to the release of Prospect's third quarter report, I viewed the credit risk as elevated, a concern that increased after reading that report. 

The problem which has been growing is that PSEC has a lot of senior unsecured debt that has to be refinanced at much higher rates, which has been the case for more than a year now. 

And, as that happens, net investment income will decline as floating rate loans, priced at spreads to short term rates, reprice at lower coupons due to the FED rate cuts. 

In response, PSEC slashed its common stock dividend again, going from a monthly dividend of $.06 per share to $.045. SEC Filed Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 While this may be a positive for bond owners, it is also a matter of concern for them as it indicates a worsening financial picture. The common stock declined by 14.53% to close at $4.47 on 11/8/24.

The company reported a loss in the third quarter of $165.069M or $.38 per share. Brokerage firms were quick to downgrade the stock. I have a small ball position in PSEC which I intend to keep for a few more months at a minimum. 

9. Exchange Traded Bonds

A. Added 5 ATLCZ at $24.87

Quote:  Atlanticus Holdings Corp. 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 (ATLCZ)

Cost: $124.35

Issuer: Atlanticus Holdings Corp. (ATLC) 

ATLC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

ATLC SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Atlanticus Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results 

Corporate Profile | Atlanticus Holdings Corporation

Investment Category: Exchange Traded Baby Bonds

Last DiscussedItem # 7.A. Bought 5 ATLCZ at $25.23 (9/26/24 Post)Item # 5.A Started ATLCZ - Bought 5  at $25.3 (9/5/25 Post) 

Senior Unsecured Note

Coupon: 9.25%

The notes were originally offered in January 2024.

Par Value: $25

Prospectus

Maturity Date: 1/31/29

Optional Call Information

The make whole payment that is required for redemptions prior to 1/31/25 is described at page S-14 of the prospectus. 

Interest Payments: Quarterly

Trades flat (like a common stock in that whoever owns the security on the ex date receives the entire distribution, even if the purchase was made the day prior to the ex date) 

New Average cost per share: $25.13 (15 shares)

Yield at $25.13: 9.2%

(.0925% coupon x. $25 par value = $2.3125 per share annual interest ÷ $25.13 average total cost per share = 9.2%) 

The yield highlights the risk

Last Ex Interest Date: 10/1/24 (owned 10 as of)

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.    

28 comments:

  1. In the Economy section of this post, I discussed the warning from Celanese, a chemical company, that could be signaling trouble ahead. I have never owned the stock. I noticed today that the stock was trading near $74. The stock closed at $123.48 on 11/4 before the company released its third quarter report and downside guidance:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CE/history/

    The elevator down is frequently much faster than the one going up.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Central Securities Corp. (CET)
    $49.13 +$0.03 +0.06%
    Last Updated: Nov 14, 2024 10:46 a.m. EST
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/cet?mod=search_symbol

    CET is a stock CEF that had its IPO before the 1929 stock market crash. It is unusual in that its largest position is in Plymouth Rock, an private insurance company.

    The fund declared its annual dividend of $2.05 per share that goes ex dividend tomorrow. The fund also pays a semiannual dividend of $.20 per share in June.

    https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CET/dividends/history

    My last discussion:

    Item # 3.C. Bought 2 CET at $35.7
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/11/acco-aod-ava-axprica-bwbbp-bxcl-cet.html

    The Plymouth stock was purchased in 1982 and has a tax cost basis as of 9/30/24 of $700,000 valued at $397.9M.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18748/000199937124014413/cet-n30b2_093024.htm

    Over time, CET has sold some shares to Plymouth Rock and receives dividend payments.

    "During the year ended December 31, 2023, unrealized appreciation from the Corporation’s investment in Plymouth Rock increased by $45,478,400 and the Corporation received dividends of $7,224,244 from Plymouth Rock." Page 21 of 2023 annual report.

    2023 SEC Filed Annual Report:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/18748/000199937124001752/cet-ncsr_123123.htm

    The other CEF that I own which has substantial equity investment in private companies is BSTZ.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/bstz?mod=search_symbol

    I discussed some of those equity positions in a December 2023 post but have not updated a discussion since then.

    Item # 3.I. Started BSTZ - Bought 10 at $17.03; 10 at $17-Fidelity Account:
    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/12/amcx-bstz-elc-emaprcca-eqr-flca-maa.html

    Sponsor's website:
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/308764/science-and-technology-term-trust

    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/BSTZ

    ReplyDelete
  3. Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP)
    $41.20 +$0.26 +0.64%
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aap?mod=search_symbol

    I eliminated my 10 share position at $44.5 in response to the earnings report and the announced turnaround plan.

    The turnaround plan is at best iffy, reflects ongoing weakness in the business, and involves closing over 700 stores (500 company owned) and four distribution centers.

    SEC Filed Press Release
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158449/000115844924000236/aapexhibit991.htm

    I thought the stock needed to go down rather than up a lot.
    https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/cfra-cuts-advance-auto-parts-to-sell-with-lower-target-93CH-3724263

    Part of my risk management approach is to consider selling a position when I have a negative reaction to some development. And my negative reaction to the release today was quickly formed. I exited this position when the stock was up $3.56. I will not dwell long on making this kind of decision.

    I will briefly mention this trade in my next post.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Adams Diversified Equity Fund Inc. (ADX)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/adx?mod=search_symbol

    This is another stock CEF that I own. The fund was formed shortly before the 1929 crash. Many were highly leveraged and some CEFs had been created that had excessive leverage that owned other CEFs that were highly leveraged. That is not a prescription for investing success when the stock market crashes over 80% starting in October 1929 and continuing into 1933 when fiscal and monetary stimulus arrested the decline and started a powerful bear market rally.

    That history is summarized in "The Great Crash 1929" written by John Kenneth Galbraith which is a worthwhile read:

    https://www.amazon.com/Great-Crash-1929-Kenneth-Galbraith/dp/0547248164

    ADX declared its year end distribution:

    https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/11/14/2981699/0/en/Adams-Diversified-Equity-Fund-Declares-Year-End-Distribution.html

    ReplyDelete
  5. The probability that the FED will cut the FF rate by 25 basis points in December declined significantly after Powell through some cold water on what had become almost a certainty using the prediction made by the FED FF futures contracts.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/powell-says-the-fed-doesnt-need-to-be-in-a-hurry-to-reduce-interest-rates.html

    Powell noted correctly that the U.S. economy was "by far the best of any major economy in the world."

    The probability of a 25 basis point cut was at 82.5% yesterday and is now at 58.9%.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

    I have argued that a rate cut at the December meeting would not be prudent and there is no reason for one now. Perhaps the FED could justify the cut if the next jobs report is weak which I would define as less than 100,000 new jobs, lower wage gains and a higher U-6 number.

    The next FED meeting date is on 12/18/24.

    One of the most significant monetary policy errors in FED history was made by keeping Q/E and ZIRP in 2021 when inflation was well into problematic territory. When the Fed finally increased the FF rate to .25% - .50% from 0-.25% in March 2022, a meaningless increase, the CPI annual rate was already at 8.5%.

    Trump voters do not have a clue about what contributed to the problematic inflation numbers in 2021-2022. What they think they know is not true. It is a waste of time trying to explain the reasons to them.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I have published a YouTube video discussing my purchase of a 10 year TIP at next Thursday's auction and a TIP in the secondary market that matures on 10/15/27 that fills a gap in my TIP ladder.

    I am starting to replace, prior to receiving the redemption proceeds, to TIPs that mature on 1/15/25 and 4 maturing on 4/15/25.

    The real yield on the 10 year TIP closed at 2.1% last Friday. The 10 year TIP auction is a reopening of one originally sold in mid-July 2024 which I explain in the video.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxMLOC6JR84

    ReplyDelete
  7. I have increased my treasury bill purchase amount at next Monday's auctions to $20K from $15K. Normally, I have been buying T bills in my Schwab account that pays almost nothing for sweep funds. I decided to add a $5K purchase in my Fidelity account after noting that the MM yield on Fidelity Government MM fund (SPAAX ) had fallen to 4.31%, down from 4.94% on 9/19. I am expecting a fairly rapid additional decline to around 4.15%, possibly as low as 4.1%, before this MM fund fully reflects the 25 basis point cut in the FF rate made on 11/7. Another 25 basis point decline in that MM fund would occur quickly when and if the FED cuts 25 basis points at its 12/18/24 which is currently the more probable than not forecast, though the odds of a cut have declined compared to 1 month ago:

    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

    The 3 month T Bill yield is currently around 4.51%:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd03m?countrycode=bx

    I noted in Item #6.B. of this post that the last 3 month T Bill auction produced a 4.532% investment rate.

    The current FF range is 4.5% to 4.75% with the midpoint at 4.625%. A 4.53% IR on the 3 month, just .095% below that midpoint, is signaling that a 25 cut in more probable than not but not certain, probably somewhat higher than the current odds (61.9%) provided in the CME FEDWatch tool. The 4.53% is almost 25 basis points lower than the top FF range of 4.75%.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Replies
    1. Land: That is a risk mitigation move. I sold my highest cost 5 shares and will consider buying them back when I can lower my average cost per share, which is now at $41.52.

      I am currently engaged in a widespread risk mitigation as shown by the steady rise in my net stock/stock fund sales.

      Delete
  9. I spent far too much time on finances this week... after selling small/mid in 401k, I realized it's a great time to move some funds (transfer) out into a Fidelity IRA. It'd only take overnight for a transfer to sell the bond fund and show up in the IRA, without needing to sell the mid/small and deal with missing a rally or downday by moving.

    Good in theory. I thought of Fidelity as quality. 10 mins to open an IRA. Three days and many hours on the phone and in person later.

    The core problem was the application auto filled my phone with my landline marked as mobile, to verify me with a text. I changed my phones adding the actual mobile. I tried deleting the landline, which locked the account.

    Possibly it takes a few days for their system to feel confident in your new number and even though sending me changed and updated notices... it autofilled with my 'mobile' landline. Occasionally I'd get to a page offering to send a voice code but it never called.

    When I asked for a manager on Fidelity.com side, they'd refuse until I was voice verified which could only be done on the workplace (401k) side since that's the only account I have. Workplace managers couldn't help with Fidelity.com problems.

    Drove to an office, and a very nice employee got stuck in the same loop sending sms to landline.

    Meanwhile you can't cancel applications and every time you re-enter it goes to the next application page with unknown info and you have to wait overnight for it to clear to start over. Cleared browser cookies plenty too.

    Finally at the in person office, I filled out a paper application which I was told takes 5-7 days or 1-2 days depending on who's telling you.

    11:30pm that night the account was opened! Called again to transfer funds & $ the next day. Nice surprise!

    I asked for...and the in person office manager was definitely going to call me last week so I could tell the tale and they could improve things. No one's called including the managers on the phone to see how it's going.

    ___________
    Back in Aug, Fidelity had offered $1000 if I move most of my $ to them within 90 days, and also to increase the settlement money market style bond fund's rate over the public rate to be close to Vang's VMRXX's rate. (They may offer it to you if you ask.) They'd give me a specific advisor or coordinator person to reach out to. My dad was in the hospital having surgery and I was in the waiting room so it didn't get much attention. Ultimately decided baby steps.... open an IRA online in 10 mins.

    Is Fidelity like this? I'm leaving the 401k because it's impossible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I have not had that kind of experience with Fidelity. The major problem has been in their restrictions on buying certain securities that have variable rates. I would not put up with what you are describing.

      I keep my balance in the Fidelity Government MM fund relatively low and will quickly redirect proceeds from maturing bonds, CDs and treasuries into more of the same.

      I keep my largest cash balance in my Vanguard Taxable account that is invested in VMRXX, close to 50% of that account. The seven day yield is 4.62% compared to 4.31% for SPAXX. Both are similar funds that invest in treasuries. The difference is in the lower expense ratio of .1% for VMRXX.

      I do not have to pay attention to whether those funds use repurchase agreements which can turn state tax exempt interest into taxable state income. I explained that issue in a prior comment. It does not concern me because Tennessee does not have a state income tax.

      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/09/bhk-calf-ffhprdca-krg-mnsbp-nsa-peo-ppt.html?showComment=1728421876070#c5039352493936553923

      Delete
  10. On the drawdown Friday I did some buybacks.

    70k small/mid sold last week after gap up but not at the top of the next gap up.
    So VXF was 196.75 at close on 11/7.

    20k small/mid bought back VXF - extended market at 192.48 (104 shares)
    6 VOO to replace 3k sold large cap index.

    36 VFX in the Roth to get back into the 7k I sold there. 192.83

    That equals skipping $644 downturn. Not a huge amount, but the right direction.

    That leaves 50k VFX equivalent waiting to get back into something. It should be a better idea than mid/smaller. Maybe RSP? SPY is too overbought and ready to correct.

    I am going to consider more selling on rallies, at least in 401k and roth, and rebuys.

    Fear&Greed's last article is bracing for this being to fast a run up and time for consolidation... even with his enthusiasm for de-regulations he expects under Trump.




    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I do not regard Trump's earlier deregulation efforts as being material to company profits.

      https://www.theregreview.org/2024/01/31/stern-trumps-deregulatory-failures/

      The most significant deregulation effort was done by the republican Justices on the Supreme Court in overruling the long established Chevron doctrine, where courts were required to give deference to agencies "reasonable" interpretations of ambiguous federal laws.

      https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-chevron-curtailing-power-of-federal-agencies/

      A more important policy would be to lower the tax rate for domestic manufacturers which Trump has said that he would do. Overall his tax proposals would create a parabolic surge in the budget deficits

      https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/donald-trump-tax-plan-2024/

      https://www.crfb.org/blogs/donald-trumps-proposal-lower-corporate-tax-rate-15

      I am not likely to moving in and out of the stock market, but just out in small dribs and drabs.

      I have this reaction when I am uncomfortable with market valuations, as I am now. I am also fine with 4+ on relatively safe investments. So when I receive bond and treasury bill proceeds, which occurs regularly throughout each week, I am not thinking about what stock should I buy but how much will be redirected into both treasury bill purchases at auction and short term term investment grade corporate bonds.

      I have stopped discussing trades for my next blog with purchases/sales made through yesterday. This is my breakdown for allocation shifts that will be discussed in next Thursdays post:

      Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $20,000 in principal amount

      Corporate Bonds: $22,000 in principal amount

      Treasury Notes Purchased in Secondary Market: $1,000

      Outflow U.S. Common Stocks: -$2,552.3 (realized gain = +$725.41)

      (consisting of $2,894.5 in proceeds minus $342.2 in purchases)

      Outflow Canadian Stock: -C$1,409.5, converted soldy for allocation purposes to US$1,000 using a .71 CAD/USD (realized gain = +C$330.5)

      Outflow Stock Funds: -$1,311.62 (realized gain = +$215.67, with a total return much higher given dividends and capital gains distributions)

      Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$4,863.92.

      Outflow Equity Preferred Stocks = -$2,106.97 (realized gain = +$334.8)

      Net 2024 Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$63,804.19 (discussed in posts, with the net outflow total being several thousand dollars higher with trades that have not been discussed)

      Delete
    2. I don't have enough in stocks, so I'm trying to make sure I don't freeze at buying... but lightening is definitely the overall direction that fits the overall data here.

      In summary it's been a good run up, and there's uncertainty coming.

      Delete
    3. Dimon of Chase is excited about deregulation enabling banks to lend more. He thinks it can be done without higher risk.

      I trust his judgement more than trumps. But even if 'off', if at 1st there's more lending that could boost stocks.

      Delete
    4. With fidelity, it's way easier to get the funds out of the 401k. It's overnight and having to sell. With anyplace else they mail a check and it takes 5-7 days (or maybe 3). I'm keeping the account to finish that process.

      Schwab's SNOX or the bond money market has a higher rate. Not as high as Vangs but yet another reason to switch.

      I need to find a better parking place for loss money in the Roth since it isn't taxed so should be able to be in a higher rate fund. Then I try to think of something, and they aren't Money market like, but are real bond funds that go up and down with the bond market...

      Delete
    5. Land: I recall that you told me that you owned SNSXX, a Schwab treasury MM fund, which does not use repurchase agreements. That is a better choice than SNOXX when the fund is owned in a taxable account and the investor lives in a state with an income tax. States will tax income earned repurchase agreements used by treasury MM funds. SNOXX uses repurchase agreement agreements.

      If the fund is owned in a retirement account, this issue does not matter.

      The 7 day yield of SNOXX is at 4.34% compared to 4.41% for SNSXX. The later has a slightly longer weighted average maturity so it is keeping a slightly higher yield as long as the FED is in a rate cutting cycle.

      I do not like bond funds and prefer to own individual bonds. I have almost nothing in bond funds. The problem is that there is no promise to return your original investment. If I buy 10,000 in principal amount of a treasury bill, the government will return my money with interest when the bill matures. That is not the case with a short term bond fund.

      I would buy short term treasuries directly, through auctions with limited purchases of treasury notes in the secondary market, rather than owning a short term treasury ETF like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH).

      https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vgsh

      Maybe that is a short term alternative for investors who do not want to spend time buying the individual securities given its .04% expense ratio.

      https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vgsh

      Look at the total returns (dividends reinvested) for VGSH:

      https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/vgsh/quote

      The total returns were negative in 2021 and 2022 when interest rates were spiking. Why? The fund owned a lot of short term treasuries with almost zero percent yields due to the FED's ZIRP policy.

      Delete
    6. Land: Bankers want to lend more money and have less onerous capital buffer rules. To protect the economic system from being destroyed by bankers, new regulations came into being after they blew up the world’s financial system in 2008. An example of what can happen when lending rules are loosened relates to an SEC Rule change in 2004 that loosened the net capital rule which had limited broker-dealers and investment banks to a 12 to 1 leverage ratio (ratio of debt to equity) on investments. Those companies, like Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, argued that they knew how to manage risk so this rule change allowed those with more than $5B in assets to leverage up an unlimited number of times. It only took a few years for them to blow up the financial system.

      I discussed this 2004 SEC rule change as of one of the causes of the Near Depression in a December 2008 post:

      https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2008/12/continuation-of-prior-post-from-last.html

      The banking system almost collapsed in 2008 due to loose regulations and low capital buffers. Loosening those regulations now would make it more unlikely that I will own them.

      Delete
    7. I haven't seen VGSH before. Individual bonds are very different from a fund.

      Yes I have SNSXX. I didn't realize difference was the maturity. The larger cash amount is in the Roth and new IRA.

      For inside a roth maybe instead of treasuries, you can get better rates with corp bonds or municiple since the treasury tax break doesn't benefit inside a roth?

      Delete
    8. That is *very* short to make such a big corrupt mess after deregulation.

      If there's deregulation then the market and businesses may short term benefit. I figured 6-12 mos before Trump chaos overrode the benefits. But I'll add corruption quickly too.

      Delete
    9. Land: It appears to me that large investors are currently optimistic about Trump becoming President. It will take hard data to convince them that he is and will be more of a problem than a benefit for the U.S. economy.

      His new proposed tax cuts will be an economic stimulus. The republicans will extend the soon to expire tax cuts.

      Tax exempt municipal bonds should never be owned in a retirement account but only in a taxable account. The yields are less than taxable bonds and there is no benefit to owning them in a retirement account.

      The purpose of owning bonds that pay taxable interest in a retirement account is that the taxable interest is turned into tax free interest that is not taxed when paid into a Roth IRA account, which is all that I have now, or is at least tax deferred when paid into a regular IRA or Keogh retirement account. When money is withdrawn from a regular IRA and taxed, it does not matter whether the income component was tax free or a long term capital gain, since the tax is applied to the value when distributed.

      Taxable municipal bonds will have higher yields than tax free munis. Those mostly long term bonds were issued under what is known as the Build America bonds that were issued in 2009 and 2010.

      There is an ETF that owns those bonds:

      Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF (BAB)
      https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/bab?mod=search_symbol

      Given the low yield, I do not own it.

      https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=Investor&ticker=BAB

      Also when those bonds mature or are redeemed, there is nothing new that can be bought.

      Delete
  11. SPAAX - in Fidelity, I couldn't remember the letters.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I just published a YouTube video discussing the use of treasury bills purchased at auction vs. treasury money market funds.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2VhY3npDkI

    ReplyDelete
  13. I sold that $20k VXF for $192 profit. I was looking for another rally, which may still come. But the ride down is looking steeper than the potential ride up before a pullback.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Land: I don't think the short term gyrations of the stock market are predictable.

      My VIX Model is still in a Stable VIX Pattern and the S&P 500 index is still above its 200 day SMA line using a 1 year chart which is close to 5,420.

      I am concerned about the valuations of most stocks. And, I am not comfortable with the risk/reward balance over the next several years given the elevated valuations and stock earnings multiples and the likely chaos that will be coming. Since I do not need to take stock risks, I am selling into the rally since the election.

      Delete
    2. Very good point that VIX is stable pattern. Still it's above 15 which is indicator that it's not as solidly comfortable.

      The VXF that I started buying/selling as alterative to the 401k's version of extended market has PE over 20. That feels high. It's not like the big 7 that keep climbing but are small/mid caps with more uncertainity. Maybe small/mid PE runs higher normally?

      I can hold VXF long term, 20 years so it's good for trading in the current trading range without worry if I get 'stuck' in it.

      Delete
  14. I have published a new post:

    https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/11/aap-colb-bohpra-bwbbp-dbrgprj-f-fhb.html

    ReplyDelete