AROW, BP, BSTZ, CAG, DG, FLO, FNLC, FSK, GIS, HR, KMI, NNN, NWBI, RITM, VYGR

Economy: 

Fed Governor Waller sees potential for multiple interest rate cuts in 2025

Trump tariff news: Products and companies most at risk: CNBC (1/20/25) Close to 50% of U.S. petroleum imports come from Canada. Trump stated on 1/20/25 that he may impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico as early as 2/1/25. Trump says he's thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February

Jamie Dimon on tariffs: ‘Get over it’ | CNN Business  

January 2025 Treasury Yield curve: 

The slight rise in intermediate and long term yields today was sufficient to cause declines in the bond like stock sectors. 

January 2025 Real Yield Curve:

10 Year TIP Breakeven Inflation Rate as of 1/22/25:  2.4%

Just prior to the FED's first rate cut in September, the 10 year breakeven inflation rate was at 2.12%. Inflation expectations are rising. 

There will be a 10 year TIP auction on 1/23. 

The 2 and 5 year treasury notes will be auctioned on Monday 1/27. I have not decided whether I will participate.  

++++

Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post: 

Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $20,000 in principal amount

Treasury Notes Purchased Secondary Market: $5,000 in principal amount

Corporate Bonds: $11,000 in principal amount

Tennessee Municipal Bond: $5,000 in principal amount (rated AAA)

Inflow Common Stocks: +$986.29

(consisting of $1,619.02 in purchases minus $632.73 in proceeds with a realized gain of $219.49)

Outflow Stock Funds: -$643.48 (realized gain at +$136.92)

Inflow Stocks/Stock Funds: +$342.81

Outflow Preferred Stock Funds: -2,188.83 (realized gain at +$255.89)

2025 Net Inflow Stocks/Stock Funds: +$2,133.85

Stanley Druckenmiller says 'animal spirits' are back in markets because of Trump with CEOs 'giddy'

Bonds Had Their Worst Decade in 90 Years. Why Now Could Be the Time to Buy. - MarketWatch (subscription publication). The author notes that both Vanguard and Goldman Sachs predict that bonds will beat stocks over the next 10 years. For that to happen, there would probably need to be an annual average inflation rate of 2% or lower, a positive real return on bonds of 2% to 3%, and a major valuation reset resulting in a 30+% decline in the S&P 500 followed by a long period of choppy up and down moves going nowhere with a few positive years. Over the past 10 years, a study by Bank of America found that stocks had returned +13% per year and bonds with durations of 15 years or longer had a -.5% before adjustments for taxes and inflation. 

The AI stocks were already in the stratosphere before Trump announced that  that $500B would be spent over the next 4 years creating new AI infrastructure. Trump claimed that 100,000 new jobs would be created in what was called the Stargate Project. Announcing The Stargate Project | OpenAI Softbank, led by the controversial Masayoshi Son, has the financial responsibility of coming up with the $500B or so in funds. SoftBank is making another Trumpy jobs pledge. It’s not clear it delivered the last time. | Vox; Musk undercuts Trump: Says Stargate AI plan lacks funding Musk said that Softbank had only secured $10B in funds so far. We will see how it pans out. My gut tells me that this will end up being just another example of how easy it is to bamboozle people. 

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Shiller PE Ratio | Longtermtrends

S&P 500 PE Ratio - Shiller PE Ratio | Longtermtrends

The Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends

Marketwatch has the dividend yield of SPY at 1.16% as of 1/22/25. SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Overview; S&P500 Dividend Yield - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends

+++

Small Ball Rules: 

Baseball Analogy: Small ball (baseball) - Wikipedia

Primarily a risk reduction trading technique, one of many strategies that I employ to mitigate risks that are assumed when owning risk assets where loss of capital is possible.   

(1) Each purchase has to be at the lowest price in the chain; or has to lower my average cost per share; 

(2) Purchases are made in small lots using commission-free trades;

(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;

(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved; 

(5) Shares purchased with dividends may be sold when it is profitable to do so and the share price is outside my consider to buy range; and

(6) There is no hesitation to sell a stock after a dividend cut or a disappointing earnings report, when I can realize any capital gain. 

The most important objective is to reduce risk through a controlled and disciplined trading strategy that realizes gains, particularly by selling the highest cost lots that reduce my average cost per share and increases my dividend yield.  

The corollary is to buy the dips, particularly during extreme volatility events that would be associated with major declines in stocks.  

Another aspect is selling fractional shares bought with dividends in order to harvest the original dividend amount plus a small profit on the shares. Generally, if I am willing to buy a dividend stock now through a market purchase, I will consider reinvesting the dividend. Conversely, if I am not willing to buy shares, I will likely turn off the dividend reinvestment option. 

My Primary Investment Objectives: (1) Preservation of Capital; (2) Income Generation; (3) Realized Capital Gains in risk assets.   

Normally, I will try to generate at least $25K in trading profits during each year.  I failed to do that last year. 

1. Small Ball Buys: 

Investment Style Box: Contrarian Value Dividend Paying

A. Added 5 GIS at $58.7: 

Quote: General Mills Inc. (GIS)

Cost: $293.5

52 Week High: $75.9 (20% decline mark at $60.72)

General Mills Investor Relations

GIS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

GIS SEC Filings

General Mills: Brands overview

Last Discussed: Item # 1.B. Added to GIS - Bought 5 at $62.25; 5 at $61.3 (1/9/25 Post) 

I view GIS as undervalued but I recognize that packaged food stocks are currently in a bear market of unknowable duration. 

GIS has become a major pet food/treat company with a series of acquisitions and has made significant progress in organic foods through acquisitions as well. 

The trouble started in 2021 with rapid increases in input costs that caused these companies to rapidly raise prices. The price increases resulted in lower volumes. Consumers thereafter became resistant to more modest price increases when inflation started to fall in 2023. There are also concerns about what RFK Jr. will do.   

I would summarize the headwinds for this stock sector as follows: (1) a rapid rise in input cost inflation caused these companies to raise prices that hurt demand; (2) competition from lower cost private label brands that intensified as packaged food companies had to rapidly raise prices in 2021-2023 just to offset input cost increases; (3) more consumers avoiding packaged foods based on health concerns about ingredients; (4) the more recent concerns that RFK Jr. will do something that will crack down of what these companies put in their products; (5) lower demand due to drug supported weight loss programs.  

New average cost per share: $57.45 (55 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.60 per share 

GIS Dividend History & Date

Yield at New AC = 4.18%

Last Ex Dividend: 1/10/25 (owned 50 shares as of)

Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 11/24/24): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 2.A. Added to GIS - Bought 5 at $63.2 (1/1/25 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the F/Q ending 11/24/24

Maximum Position: 100 Shares

The maximum position is tailored for me. It is based on a variety of factors including valuation, financial strength and ability to survive long term, the dividend yield and dividend growth, my investment objectives and age, and risk mitigation strategies that include selling the rips and buying the dips.  

Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots only

GIS Realized Gains to Date: $3,043.93

Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $68.83 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $59.15); Item # 2.A. Pared GIS - Sold Highest Cost 5 Share Lot at $68.17 (3/22/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.61, discussed the earnings report for the F/Q ending 2/25/24, SEC Filed Earnings Press Release); Item # 1.C. Eliminated GIS in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 2+ at $80.41 (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $66.83);  Item # 3.C. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $86.64 (12/13/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $145.71); Item # 6.A. Pared GIS - Sold 5 at $81.64 (11/8/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.72); Item # 4.B. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $80.65 (9/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.89); Item # 2.B. Sold 2+ GIS at $67.1 and 3 at $69.22 (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $46.67); Item # 3.B. Sold 1.582 GIS at $64.42 - Eliminated Shares Bought with Dividends (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $8.09); Item # 1.A. Pared GIS in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 4 at $61.37 (4/17/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.95); Item # 1.A. Eliminated GIS-Sold 27+ at $54.86 (3/21/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $426.37); Item # 1.A. Sold 13 GIS at $55.02-Used Commission Free Trade (8/17/19 Post)(profit = $134.13); Item 1.B. Sold Highest Cost GIS lots at $51.69 (4/7/2019 Post); Item #2.A. Sold 10 GIS at $56.18-Used Commission Free Trade  (12/21/17 Post) Snapshots of 2007 through 2017 round-trip trades can be found in Item 1.B (+$1,809.99). I did not track gains prior to 2007. 

B. Added to FLO - Bought 5 at $19.15: 

Quote: Flowers Foods Inc.

Cost:  $95.75

52 week high: $26.12 (20% decline mark at $20.9)

FLO SEC Filings

Investment Category: Contrarian value

Flowers is the second-largest producer and marketer of packaged bakery foods in the U.S. Our principal products include breads, buns, rolls, snack items, bagels, English muffins, and tortillas and are sold under a variety of brand names, including Nature’s Own, Dave's Killer Bread ("DKB"), Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Tastykake, and Mrs. Freshley’s." 10-Q at pages 38-39. 

Investors so far have had a negative reaction to this announcement. Flowers Foods to Acquire Simple Mills (1/8/25)($795M in cash, a large acquisition for Flowers) When the reaction is negative, the concern is that the company has overpaid.  

Last Elimination: Item # 1.C. Eliminated FLO -Sold 20 at $28.3 (1/27/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $119.76) 

Average cost per share: $19.85 (10 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually), last raised from $.23 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment. 

FLO Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at AC  = 4.836%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/24

Last Earnings Report (F/Q 10/15/23): I discussed this report here:  Item # 2.F. Restarted FLO - Bought 5 at $20.5 (1/1/25 Post)

 Maximum Position: 50 shares

Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.  

C. Added 5 CAG at $25.25: 

Quote: Conagra Brands Inc.  (CAG)

Cost: $126.25

CAG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

CAG SEC Filings

SEC Filed Annual Report for the Fiscal Year ending 5/25/24

Brands | Conagra Brands

5 Year Chart: Major Bear Market Trend

The price has returned to the March 2020 pandemic low when the S&P 500 had crashed to 2300. 

The decline in early October 2024 was in response to the earnings report for the F/Q ending 8/24/24, released on 10/2 prior to the open. Conagra Brands Reports First Quarter Results  The stock closed at $32.72 on 10/1 and at $29.38 on 10/2 with volume spiking to 20.128+M shares. The average volume is about 5M. IMO, investors are overreacting. 

Last Discussed: Item # 2.H. Added to CAG - Bought 1 at $26.66; 2 at $26.33; 5 at $25.63 (1/15/25 Post) 

New Average cost per share: $27.57 (70 shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 1/22/25 after add

The AC was reduced from $27.75.   

Dividend: Quarterly at $.35 per share ($1.4 annually), last raised from $.33 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment. 

I have change my dividend option to reinvestment effective for the next payment. 

Yield at $27.57 AC = 5.078%

Yield at $25.25:  5.545%

Next Ex Dividend: 1/27/25

Last Earnings Report (F/Q): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 1.K. Added to CAG - Bought 1 at $27.02  (12/26/24 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

Maximum Position: 100 shares + shares purchased with dividends. 

New Purchase Restriction: 5 share lots with each subsequent purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain, switching to 10 shares at <$22. 

Will Consider SellingHighest Cost Lots at >$33.

Sell Discussions: Item # 2.H. Sold 5 CAG at $33.07 (9/12/24 Post); Item # 3.A. Eliminated CAG in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 20 at $38.27  and Item # 3.B. Eliminated CAG in Schwab Account - Sold 22+ at $38.36 (12/20/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $214.41); Item # 5.A. Eliminated CAG in Fidelity Account - Sold 18+ at $37.07 (12/6/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $52.4); Item # 6.B. Pared CAG in Vanguard Account - Sold 5 at $36.66 (11/8/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $4.59)  

CAG Realized Gains to Date: $271.75

Investment category: Bond Substitute (describes the goal only which is the dividend + 2% or more annual realized gain on the shares) 

CAG SU Bonds: I own two 4.6% Conagra SU bonds that mature on 11/1/25 bought at a total cost of 98.48. Item # 4.G. (4/26/24 Post);  

D. Restarted BP - Bought 5 at $31.51: 

Quotes: 

USDs: BP PLC ADR

British Pence: BP PLC (U.K.: London)

100 Pence = 1£

Convert 1 British Pound to US Dollar - GBP to USD Exchange Rates | Xe

Cost: $157.55

52 week high: $40.4 (20% decline mark at $32.32)

Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Eliminated BP - Price Range $31.2-$31.33_ (3/17/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $190.44) This was in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine that resulted in BP unloading its 19.75% stake in Rosneft at a substantial loss. BP offloads its nearly 20% stake in Russia's Rosneft It is for the best long term that western firms avoid any ownership interest in Russian companies. The risk far outweighs any reasonably expected return on capital. Russian stocks have no value on the U.S. stock exchanges. 

The company also incurred enormous costs in settling suits related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010. BP estimates all remaining material Deepwater Horizon liabilities The Argus analyst has the total spill related charges at $66.691B.  

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 4.J. Added 5 BP at $23.1- Vanguard Taxable and Item #4.K. Added 1 BP at $23.15- Fidelity Taxable  (7/30/21 Post); Item # 1.F. Bought 2 BP at $24.14 and 8 at $24.85 (4/30/21 Post)

Investment Category: Bond Substitute which defines the goal rather than the dividend safety issue. The goal is to received several dividend payments and then to exit the position at a 2% or higher annualized gain based on cost ($.63 or higher annually)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.92 annually), last raised from $.4362 effective for the 2024 third quarter. 

BP Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $31.51: 6.09%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/8/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filing 

Non-GAAP E.P.S. at US$.82 with the consensus at $.76 

As noted in the preceding snapshot, the non-GAAP earnings is called underlying replacement cost profit. 

Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers): 

Morningstar (10/29/24): 4 stars with a fair value of $38.2 and no moat. 

S&P (10/30/24): 3 stars with a 12 month PT of $30, lowering the rating from 4 stars in response to the last earnings report. The analyst noted that refining margin fell 48% Y-O-Y and fell 20% compared to the previous quarter. Liquid prices declined in the quarter. A decline in energy prices and refining margins were industry wide in the third quarter and will have considerable up and down volatility over time. 

Argus (10/31/24): Hold. The analyst hold recommendation is based in part on BP's high leverage compared to Exxon, Chevron and Shell. BP's total debt/capital ratio was at 43% as of 9/30/2024 compared to 16% for Exxon, 12% for Chevron and 30% for Shell.  

Other Recent News: 

BP reportedly seeks buyers for U.S. natural gas pipeline system stake - CNBC (12/6/25) BP owns approximately 1,500 miles of pipeline.  

Oil major BP to cut thousands of jobs in cost-saving drive - CNBC (1/16/25)

4Q24 bp Trading Statement-BP (1/15/24) BP announced that it expected upstream production to fall in the 4th quarter compared to the 3rd Q. and that refining margins would remain low. 

Last Bond Offering (11/24): Prospectus 

E. Restarted NWBI - Bought 10 at $13.09: 

Snapshot Includes Last Elimination in this Account

Quote: Northwest Bancshares Inc. (NWBI) 

Cost: $130.90

Northwest Bancshares is a bank holding company whose operating bank is known as Northwest Bank that has 131 branches in Pennsylvania, New York, Indiana and Ohio.  

Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Eliminated NWBI - Sold 20 at $15.05 (11/21/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.76) 

Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.D. Bought 5 NWBI at $9.95 (9/30/23 Post); Item # 2.G. Added to NWBI - Bought 2 at $11.2; 3 at $10.75 (5/6/23 Post)

NWBI  Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch  As of 1/17/25, the average E.P.S. for 2025 was at $1.03, rising to $1.36 in 2026. 

NWBI SEC Filings

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share

NWBI Dividend History | Seeking Alpha

Yield at $13.09 = 6.11%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/8/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter. 

E.P.S. $.26, down from $.31

NIM: 3.33%, up from 3.23% (a positive)  

Efficiency Ratio: 64.78%, up from 62.31% (both too high IMO)

Charge off ratio: .18%, up from .13% (both good)

NPL Ratio: .69%, up from .68% (about average and not trending higher yet)

NPA Ratio: .54%, unchanged

Coverage Ratio: 161.56% (allowance for credit losses to non-performing loans; prefer a number over 100% when making a new purchase)

Tangible Book Value per share: $9.47, up from $8.74

NWBI realized a loss of $39.413M ($28M after tax) in the second quarter due to selling 15% of its low yielding investment securities at a loss.  SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 6/30/24 NWBI received $276M in proceeds, used part of those funds to repay short term debt and the remainder of $258M used to purchase investment securities netting a 420 basis point higher yield. GAAP E.P.S. in the 2024 second quarter was consequently reduced to $.04 with the adjusted. 

I am not aware of a bank that adjusted the duration of its owned security portfolio in 2021 when it was obvious that problematic inflation would cause the Fed to end ZIRP and QE and start a rate hiking cycle. Importantly, many owned boatloads of low yielding mortgage backed securities whose duration increased as rates moved higher.  

NWBI Realized Gains to Date: $293.51

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1 Sold 156+ NWBI at $12.52 (6/30/11 Post); Item # 2 Sold 50 NWBI at $12.5 (2/22/11 Post)

The 2011 sells generated a profit of $201.79

There have been no stock splits since 2009. The current share price is only slightly above my sell prices in 2011. The long term chart highlights that NWBI is not suitable for a long term hold. The goal is to harvest the dividend and to sell at a 2% or higher annualized profit based on total cost (at least .02% x. $13.09 = $.26 per year above the cost number)

F. Restarted AROW - Bought 5 at $27.15: 

Includes Last Elimination in this Account

Quote: Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW)- A Bank Holding Company headquartered in Glen Falls, N.Y. whose operating bank is Arrow Bank.  Bank Location I counted 36 offices, located around Albany and moving north through Saratoga Springs to Ticonderoga.  

Cost: $135.75

52 week high: $34.63 (20% decline mark at $27.7)

AROW SEC Filings

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report

Investor Relations Website: Arrow Financial Corporation

AROW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch There are two analyst estimates. The 2025 average estimate is currently at $2.65 and $2.96 in 2026. 

Arrow has paid a 3% stock dividend for several years but increased the quarterly cash dividend by 1 cents in lieu of that stock dividend last year. Arrow Declares October 2024 Cash Dividend   

Last Elimination: Item # 2.C. Eliminated AROW - Sold 25+ $30.11 (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $126.87) 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A. Added to AROW - Bought 5 at $24.5-Fidelity Account (4/8/23 Post)

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Dividend: Quarterly at $.28 per share ($1.12 annually), last raised from $.27 effective for the 2024 dividend payment. 

AROW Dividend History & Date-Seeking Alpha

Yield at $27.15: 4.125%

Last Ex Dividend: 10/15/24

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I noted some improvement in operating metrics. 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release 

Diluted Shares as of: 16.742M

Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter. 

Diluted E.P.S. $.54, up from $.46

NIM: 2.78%, up from 2.53% and up from 2.67% in the 2024 second quarter

Efficiency Ratio: 65.59% (too high IMO), down from 69.93% which is at least a positive trend

NPL Ratio: .66%, up from .2% (trend is unfavorable)

Coverage Ratio: 142.79% (prefer over 100% when making a new purchase)

NPA Ratio: .51%, up from .16% (trend is unfavorable)

Charge off ratio: .08%, up from .05%. Both are excellent and mitigate somewhat the unfavorable trend in nonperforming loans year-over-year. 

The trend in net interest income year-over-year is a positive: 

Total Capital Ratio: 14.46%

Tangible Book Value per share: $21.95, up from $19.76 

ROTE: 9.79%, up from 9.05%

ROA: .84%, up from .75%

Owned Securitie: 10-Q at page 13 

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.K. Eliminated AROW in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $32.7 and Item # 2.L. Eliminated AROW in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $33.15 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $121.87); Item # 1.C. Sold 15 AROW at $36.1 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.99); Item # 1. Sold 52+ AROW at $37.5 (7/2/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $661.34); Item # 5.A. Sold 100 AROW at $34.7 (4/23/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $62.04) 

AROW Realized Gains to Date: $1,012.17

G. Restarted FNLC - Bought 10 at $26.075: 

Includes Last Elimination in this Account

Quote: First Bancorp Inc. (FNLC) 

Cost: $260.75

52 week high: $31.04 (20% decline mark at $24.83)

There are no analyst estimates. 

Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.P. Added to FNLC - Bought 5 at $19.4(9/26/2020 Post); Item # 1.I. Restarted FNLC-Bought 5 at $20.2 (9/19/20 Post) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.35 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment. 

FNLC Dividend History & Date

When looking at the long term dividend history for a bank holding company, I view it as having some relevance to a buy decision that the dividend was not cut in 2008-2009. 

This indicates a conservative approach to lending. FNLC raised its quarterly dividend to $.19 per share from $.184 in the 2008 third quarter. 

To determine whether that kind of conservative lending is still part of the bank's culture, I would look at the nonperforming loans to total loans ratio and the net charge off ratio. In the last earnings report, FNLC reported a NPL ratio of just .11% and the 2024 net charge offs through the 2024 third  quarter was only $89,000 or .005% of total loans. 

Yield at $26.08: 5.52%

Last Ex Dividend: 1/6/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a November 2024 post.  Item # 3.I. Eliminated FNLC - Sold 10 at $29.56  (11/21/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $95.06); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24

FNLC Realized Gains to Date: $1,339.54

Of that total, $1,001.96 was realized in 2015-2016 (See profit snapshots in  Regional Bank Basket Strategy Gateway Post)

H. Added to NNN - Bought 5 at $39.64: 

Quote: NNN REIT Inc. - A Net Lease Retail REIT similar to Realty Income (O) 

Cost: $198.28

Retail Properties | Our Portfolio | NNN REIT

NNN SEC Filings

Last Discussed: Item #2.L. Sold 1+ NNN at $46.18(8/8/24 Post) I eliminated fractional shares purchased with dividends. I am no longer revinvesting the dividend. 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.F. Added to NNN - Bought 1 at $37.63; 1 at $36.67; 1 at $35.32; 2 at $34.95  (9/30/23 Post)

New Average cost per share: $40.27 (40 shares)

The AC was lowered from $40.36. 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.58 per share ($2.32 annually), last raised from $.5625 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment. The dividend has been raised in 3rd quarter. Growth has been slow but steady. In the first quarter of 2015, the rate was at $.42 per share. 

NNN Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at $40.27 AC = 5.76%

Next Ex Dividend: 1/31/25

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24) SEC Filed Press Release 

Occupancy: 99.3%

Weighted average remaining lease term: 10 years

Revenues: $218.564M

GAAP E.P.S. = $.53

Core FFO and AFFO per share: $.84, up from $.82

Reconciliation GAAP to Core FFO: 

For NNN, a net lease REIT, the major adjustments to GAAP when computing FFO were to add back the non-cash depreciation expense of $63.272M and to deduct the gain of $7.765M related to real estate sales. 

The AFFO calculation adds back stock compensation expenses and deducts from FFO non-cash revenues created by the straight line accounting convention and other items. Those adjustments were relatively minor. 

2024 Guidance: AFFO per share of $3.31 to $3.35. 

Top 20 Tenants: 

Properties: 3,549 with gross leasable space of 36.55M square feet. 10-Q at page 9. 

NNN SU Bonds: I own 10 NNN 4% SU bonds that mature on 11/15/25 and 2 that mature on 12/2/26. I will be considering the purchase of more SU bonds starting in September 2025.  

I. Added to HR - Bought 3 at $16.24 - Fidelity Account: 

Quote: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. (HR) - A REIT that owns medical office buildings 

Cost: $48.72

52 week high: $18.9 (20% decline mark at $15.12) 

This is a deservedly hated REIT stock but the current price does provide some upside total return potential satisfactory to me, provided the dividend is not cut. 

HR SEC Filings

HR 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report

Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in HR - Sold 14+ at  $18.10 - Schwab Account (12/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot $56.05). I discussed the third quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental  I am copying some of the discussion in that post here.

Recent Material Merger: Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) and Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) Announce Closing of Merger - Healthcare Realty

HR acquired HTA but HTA was the company that survived, a reverse merger. After the merger was consummated, the name of the surviving company was change to Healthcare Realty and the symbol changed from HTA to HR. 

Prior to the closing, HTA paid its shareholders a special dividend of $4.82 per share. I owned 50 HTA shares and received a $241 cash payment, most of the payment was classified as ROC as I recall that reduced my tax cost basis 

Most of my current HR position in the Fidelity account originated from owning HTA shares. 

Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy

As I have discussed many times, both HTA and HR during their separate existence failed to increase funds available for distribution (FAD) per share (also call Cash Available for Distribution or "CAD') over a long period of time. (e.g., in Item # 1.H discussing legacy HTA; wherein I calculated the CAD per share in the 2021 3rd quarter at $.349; at $.377 in the 2020 third quarter and at $.344 in the 2016 3rd quarter or flat over a 5 year period. In Item # 2.A. discussing Legacy HR, I noted that the CAD per share was $.33 in the 2021 4th quarter and at $.31 in the 2012 4th quarter) 

Prior posts contain the relevant data. I have discussed that history in prior posts. 

Combining two entities who have proven an inability to increase CAD per share will not create one that can IMO. 

This combination, which made no sense IMO, was the brainchild of hedge fund manager Paul Singer. Elliott Investment Management urges REIT Healthcare Trust of America to explore sale | Reuters (10/11/21)

I attribute the long term poor performance for both HR and HTA, measured on a FAD per share basis, which is the relevant number for a shareholder, rather than total FAD, to buying Medical Office Buildings at low capitalization rates, paying out almost all FAD to common shareholders, and raising capital to expand through expensive acquisitions by selling shares and acquiring more debt which has become more expensive to refinance starting in 2022. Maybe the low capitalization rate acquisitions could be argued as being rational when financing costs were below or slightly above the inflation rate. But with interest rates returning to normalized levels above the anticipated inflation rate, the growth by acquisition strategy that involved buying properties with low capitalization rates was a long term losing one for shareholders.  

Average cost per share: $18.17 (100+ Shares) 

Dividend: Quarterly at $.31 per share ($1.24 annually)

HR Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Effective for the next dividend payment, I change my dividend option from payment in cash to reinvestment. This is based in part of the valuation at or near the current price and as a method to randomly average down. 

2024 3rd Quarter FAD per share: $.294 

Yield at AC per share: 6.824% (assumes no dividend cut which is a possibility)

Yield at $16.24- Last Purchase Price: 7.636%

Last Ex Dividend: 11/12/24

Some Legacy HTA Sell Discussions: Item # 6 Pared HTA - Sold 20 at $31.8 (4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $198.37); Item # 1.H. Sold 5 HTA at $31.61; 5 at $32.89 (11/11/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $96.97); (Item # 3.B. Pared HTA - Sold 10 at $28.17; 10 at $29.17 (7/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $118.58); Item # 1  Sold 2 HTA at $26.7 (5/2/20 Post)(Profit Snapshot = $7.81); Item # 2.D. Eliminated HTA-Sold 30 at $32.51 (2/8/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $178.02); Item # 1.A. Sold 10 HTA at $31.31 (1/29/20)(profit snapshot = $44.34); Item # 2.B. Sold 10 HTA at $30.81 (11/28/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $39.2);Item # 1.A. Sold 15 HTA at $28.57-Used Commission Free Trade(9/12/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $46.12); Item # 2 Sold 50 HTA at $26.25 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/28/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha(profit snapshot = $124.1)

Largest Legacy HR Realized Gain: Item # 2 Sold 50 HR at $26.33 Update For REIT Basket Strategy As Of 10/19/15 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $103.27)

I highlighted the previous sell prices to underscore that the growth by acquisition strategy has failed and can not be justified as benefiting shareholders long term. 

Combined HR and HTA Realized Gains: $956.03 

J. Added to DG - Bought 1 at $66.97: 

Quote: Dollar General Corp. (DG)

DG SEC Filings

52 week high: $168.07 (20% decline mark at $134.46)

This stock is in a major bear market trend with no signs yet IMO that a bottom is in place. 

Website: Dollar General | Save time. Save money. Every day.

Average cost per share: $75.81 (5 shares)

Dividend: Quarterly at $.59 per share ($2.36 annually), last raised from $.55 effective for the 2023 first quarter payment. 

DG Dividend History & Date

Recent earnings trends, which are a major negative, do not support a dividend increase IMO. 

F/Y Ending 1/28/21: $10.62 10-K at page 44 

F/Y ending 1/28/22: $10.17

FY ending 2/3/23: $10.68

FY ending 2/2/24: $7.55, 10-K at page 45

Current F/Y - Last Guidance: Diluted E.P.S. $5.5-$5.9, down from prior guidance of $5.5 - $6.2. 

Yield at $75.81 AC: 

Last Ex Dividend: 1/7/25

Last Earnings Report (F/Q 11/1/24): I discussed this report in this recent post: Item # 1.H. Added to DG - Bought 1 at $75.17; 1 at $70.25  (1/9/25 Post);  SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

Maximum Position: 5 shares which I currently own now. I may start to buy up to 5 more shares in 1 share lots when and if the price sinks below $55, with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain.   

K. Restarted VYGR - Bought 20 at $5.23: 

Quote: Voyager Therapeutics Inc. (VYGR)

Cost: $104.6

SEC Filings

VYGR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch - Losses

VYGR "is a biotechnology company whose mission is to leverage the power of human genetics to modify the course of and ultimately cure neurological diseases. The Company’s pipeline includes programs for Alzheimer’s disease; amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; Parkinson’s disease, and multiple other diseases of the central nervous system. Many of the Company’s programs are derived from its TRACER™ adeno-associated virus (“AAV”) capsid discovery platform, which the Company has used to generate novel capsids (“TRACER Capsids”) and identify associated receptors to potentially enable high brain penetration with genetic medicines following intravenous dosing. Some of the Company’s programs are wholly-owned, and some are advancing with licensees and collaborators including Alexion, AstraZeneca Rare Disease; Novartis Pharma AG, (“Novartis”); and Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (“Neurocrine”)."

Investment Category: Blackjack Hand, part of the Lottery Ticket Basket 

Last Discussed:  Item # 3.E. Eliminated VYGR - Sold 15. at $6.69 (10/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot =  $43.16)

Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.L. Eliminated VYGR in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $6.82 (7/13/22 Post); Item # 2.N. Pared VYGR in Fidelity Account- Sold 15 at $5.39 and  Eliminated VYGR in Vanguard Account - Sold 20 at $5.42(3/10/22 Post)

Realized Gains to Date: $132.86

While VYGR has a lot of drugs in its pipeline, only one compound is in an early stage trials while the remainder have yet to start a trial. It will be a very long time before a compound will be approved for marketing, if ever. I have no opinion on whether one or more will be successful. No one has sufficient information to know whether or not VYGR will ever reach the promised land. 

Pipeline – Overview - Voyager Therapeutics

The furthest along is the currently wholly owned compound VY7523 for the treatment of alzheimer's which has been a graveyard for new drug treatments: 

The company describes VY7523 as follows in its last filed 10-Q: 

See also, Overview of Capsid Discovery Platform 

Progress in moving the pipeline toward new drug approval applications with regulatory authorities has been too slow IMO.  

A successful drug in one treatment area could turn this stock into a multibagger.  

A significant percentage price move could happen with one of the wholly owned compound posting positive results in an early trial. 

About all that I can stay is that some major drug companies are interested in its drug discovery platform. 

Some Recent News: Voyager Advances Collaboration with Neurocrine; Third Gene Therapy Development Candidate Selected (9/16/24); Voyager Enters into License for Next-Generation Capsid, Bringing Partnered Portfolio of TRACER-Enabled Gene Therapies to 14 (9/5/24)

Press Releases | Voyager Therapeutics Inc.

Cash and Cash Equivalents as of 9/30/24: $345.4M

Last Loss Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release ($9.044M or ($.16 per share)

The significant licensing agreement are described in the last filed 10-Q at pages 14-15, 20-23;  Novartis purchased 2,145,002 VYGR shares in December 2023 at an aggregate purchase price of $20M (about $9.32 per share). SEC Form 8-K 

In January 2024, VYGR "issued and sold 7,777,778 shares of our common stock and, in lieu of common stock to certain investors, pre-funded warrants to purchase 3,333,333 shares of common stock in a public offering, or the 2024 Public Offering, at a public offering price of $9.00 per share of common stock and $8.999 per pre-funded warrant. The 2024 Public Offering resulted in net proceeds to the Company of approximately $93.5 million after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and offering expenses." (page 23, 10-Q; Prospectus )

2. Small Ball Sells: 

A. Pared KMI Again - Sold 10 at $29.77 - Vanguard Account:

Quote: Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) - Energy Infrastructure 

Proceeds: $297.69

Company website: Energy Infrastructure & Solutions | Kinder Morgan

Asset Map | Kinder Morgan

KMI SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24

Profit Snapshot: $157.63 (1/16/25 sale only)

Average cost per share: $14.01, unchanged since I am selling out of a 100 share lot purchased at $15.89. Item # 1. Bought 100 KMI in Vanguard Taxable Account at $15.89 (1/7/22 Post)

Price as of Close on 1/16/25

The tax cost basis was reduced down to $14.01 through partial ROC classifications of dividend payments made in 2022-2023. That part of the dividend is not taxed until the shares are sold 

I do not believe there will be a ROC adjustment connected to the 2024 dividends, but will not know for sure until Kinder reports the tax classifications later this month.     

Dividend: Quarterly at $.2875 ($1.15 annually)

Kinder Morgan Dividend History

Yield at $14.01= 8.208%

The yield based on my original cost of $15.89 is currently at 7.237%.

Last Ex Dividend: 10/31/24 

Last Discussed: Item # 6.D. Sold 10 KMI at $28.38 (1/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $143.73)

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 3.A. Sold 10 of 100 KMI at $26.44 (12/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $124.08); SEC Filed Press Release

Realized KMI Gains from 30 Shares Sold out of 100 = $425.44  (assuming no ROC adjustment for the 2024 dividends)

Realized Taxable Gains from 100 Share Lot Bought at $15.89: $369.2

When calculating total return for a stock that sources some dividends from returns of capital, it is necessary to avoid double counting the ROC part of the dividend and the profit created by the ROC adjustment that lower the tax cost basis and increased my profit for the 30 shares sold so far. 

Total Return: The 100 shares received all of the dividend payments made in 2022, 2023 and 2024 which was $448.5. 

The 30 shares sold so far generated $134.55 in dividends. 

I can not add that dividend number to the taxable gain number of $425.44 when doing a total return calculation but only to the $369.2 gain based on the non-ROC adjusted original cost. That avoids double counting. The total return is consequently $503.75 based on the original cost of 30 shares of $476.7. 

B. Eliminated the CEF BSTZ - Sold 30 at $21.45 - Fidelity Account: 

Quote: BlackRock Science & Technology Term Trust Overview - Stock CEF

Proceeds: $643.48

This firm has significant positions in several private companies including ByteDance, the owner of TikTok. Valuing the shares is mushy since the shares are not traded publicly. The current net asset value per share claimed by the Fund may be way off, up or down, based on valuation marks placed on private company equity positions. 

The fund has makes extensive use of call option writing on both exchange traded funds and publicly traded stocks. 

BSTZ SEC Filings 

SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report

Sponsor's Website: Science and Technology Term Trust (BSTZ)

I discussed this stock CEF in a YouTube video published about 1 year ago. Blackrock Science and Technology Term CEF (BSTZ) - YouTube

Last Discussed: Item # 2.C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in BSTZ  - Sold 15+ at $19.75 (5/31/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $44.2)

Buy Discussions: Item # 1.B. Added to BSTZ - Bought 5 at $16.76; 5 at $16.5 (1/6/24 Post); Item # 3.I. Started BSTZ - Bought 10 at $17.03; 10 at $17 (12/23/23 Post)

SEC Filed Semiannual Report  Trust The BSTZ information starts on page 92. 

Profit Snapshot: $136.92

Leveraged: Only slightly at 1.77%

Dividend: Monthly at a variable with significant ROC support over the past year. 

Last Ex Dividend: 1/15/25 (sold on the ex dividend day)

My total profit shown above will increase when the 2024 ROC adjustments are made to my tax cost basis in a few days. The only way to support the dividend is through realized capital gains. 

Data Date of 1/15/25 Trade: 

Closing Net Asset value per share: $23.39

For the reasons discussed above, I view the claimed net asset value per share to be mushy and leaning too much toward a guess. 

Closing Market Price: $21.49

Discount: -8.12%

Average 3 Year Discount: -14.15%

Sourced: BSTZ  - CEF Connect

With CEF, I will consider selling shares when the current discount is significantly lower the 3 year average and I bought the shares sold at near the 3 year average. 

C. Pared FSK Again in Fidelity Account - Sold 6+ shares at $22.37:

Quote: FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK) - Externally Managed BDC 

I sold my highest cost lots using the specific identification method. 

Proceeds: $145.54

FSK SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 A summary of investments starts at page 5. 

Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Pared FSK in Fidelity Account - Sold 4 at $21.97 and Item #6.B. Pared FSK in Schwab Account - Sold 8 at $22 (1/9/25 Post)(profit snapshots = $84.84); Item # 5.A. Pared FSK in Schwab Account -Sold 10 at $21.45 and Item #5.B. Pared FSK in Fidelity Account - Sold 6 at $21.44 (12/19/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $34.72). 

Last Buy Discussion: Item # 4.E. Added to FSK - Bought 5 at $18.66 (6/24/23 Post)

Profit Snapshot: +$32.11  (1/21/25 sale only)

New Average cost per share this account: $14.83 (26+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday on 1/21/25 after pare

The AC was reduced from $15.34. 

Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.64 per share ($2.56 annually)

FSK Stock Dividend History & Date

Special Dividends: $.34 per share paid in 2024, see previous link for details. 

Yield at $14.83 AC =  17.26% (regular dividend only)

Last Ex Dividend: 12/4/24 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed that report here: Item # 1.M. Pared FSK - Sold 25 at $21.57 - Fidelity Account (11/27/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $49.24); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments. 

D. Pared RITM Again - Sold 16+ Shares at $11.42+ - Fidelity Account: 

Quote: Rithm Capital Corp.  (RITM) - Internally Managed Hybrid REIT

I sold my highest cost shares using the specific identification method.

Proceeds: $189.5

RITM Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

RITM SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24

Reuters Profile Page

2023 SEC Filed Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 16 and ends at page 69)

Profit Snapshot: +$29.75

New Average cost per share: $7.27 (41+ shares)

Snapshot Intraday

The AC was reduced from $7.95.  

Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share

RITM Dividend History | Nasdaq

Yield at New AC = 13.75%

Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 

Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item #2.B. Pared RITM - Sold 26+ at $11.19 (profit snapshot = $45.22); SEC Filed Press Release 

I have been selling my highest cost lots. 

Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments. 

3. Corporate Bonds: 

In Item #9 of my last post, I had snapshots of $30,000 in corporate bond proceeds received on 1/15/25 in my Fidelity Account. 

Part of my bond total return is the "profit" realized when the issuer redeems a bond, since I buy corporate bonds at a discount. The "profit" will increase the current yield number in a yield-to-maturity calculation. 

While there are limited exceptions, based in part on purchasing a bond an an immaterial discount and the time to maturity, 99.9+% of my bond "profits" will be taxed as interest income based on existing IRS rules. The "profit" on those 30 bonds was $661.96: 

 

In my Fidelity account, the total  realized market discount was $4,473.2 last year and will probably be more in 2025, given the volume of corporate bonds that I have maturing this year.   

A. Bought 2 Williams Partners 3.75% SU Maturing on 6/15/27 at a Total Cost of 97.281 - Vanguard Account: 

Issuer: Williams Partners was acquired by Williams Cos. (emb) | MarketWatch

I owned the common stock and have been paring my position. 

2025 WMB Discussions: Item # 4.B. Pared WMB Again- Sold 5 at $58.08 (1/15/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $170.3): Item # 6.C. Pared WMB - Sold 5 at $56.69 (1/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $163.25)

WMB SEC Filings

10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 I discussed this report here: Item # 4.A. Pared WMB Again- Sold 5 at $55.58 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $158.29) 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 4.955%

Current Yield at TC = 3.855%

B. Bought 2 Enbridge 4.25% SU Maturing on 12/1/26 at a Total Cost of 99.171 - Fidelity Account: 

Issuer: Enbridge Inc. (ENB) 

I own the common stock. 

ENB SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Finra Page:  Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 4.715%

Current Yield at TC: 4.286%

I now own 4. I am replacing two Enbridge SU bonds that matured on 1/15/25.  

C. Bought 2 Fortive 3.15% SU Maturing on 6/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.9 - Fidelity Account: 

Issuer: Fortive Corp. (FTV) - Industrial Conglomerate

Operating Companies | Fortive

FTV Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

FTV SEC Filings

FTV SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Fiscal Q/E 9/27/24 

10-Q for the Q/E 9/27/24 Debt is listed at page 16. (Cash and cash equivalents at $811M; GAAP net earnings at $221.6M; adjusted to $412 which adds back a $295.5 non-cash amortization expense)

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB

YTM at Total Cost: 4.7%

Current Yield at TC: 3.217%

D. Bought 2 HCA 4.5% SU Maturing on 2/15/27 at a Total Cost of 99.158 - Fidelity Account: 

Issuer: HCA Healthcare Inc.  (HCA) 

HCA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

HCA SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 (net income of $1.27B)

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-

YTM at Total Cost: 4.929%

Current Yield at TC: 4.538%

I replaced 2 HCA SU bonds that matured on 1/15/25. 

D. Bought 2 Broadcom 3.875% SU Maturing on 1/15/27 at a Total Cost of 98.489 - Fidelity Account: 

Issuer: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) 

AVGO Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch

AVGO SEC Filings 

SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Fiscal Q/E 11/3/24 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 4.676%

Current Yield at TC = 3.934%

I replaced 2 Broadcom SU notes that matured on 1/15/25. 

Last Bond Offering (1/25): Prospectus 

E. Bought 1 UDR 3.5% SU Maturing on 7/1/27 at a Total Cost of 96.858 - Vanguard Account: 

Issuer:  UDR Inc.  (UDR) - Apartment REIT and a component of the S&P 500. 

I have a small ball position in the common stock. I prefer the UDR SU bonds since they provide me with a higher yield using YTM than the common stock and have a promise to pay par value at maturity creating a built-in "profit" which the common shares never have. That is relevant to my capital preservation objective. 

As of 9/30/24, UDR owned or had an ownership interest in 60,123 apartments. 

UDR SEC Filings 

UDR SED Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24 

Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org

Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+

YTM at Total Cost: 4.867%

Current Yield at TC = 3.6135%

I now own 5 of the 2027 SU bonds, all bought in 1 bond lots. 

4. Treasury Notes Purchased in the Secondary Market: 

I did not buy any treasury notes. The following notes were purchased on 1/13-14/25.  

A. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.125% Coupon Maturing on 10/31/29 at a Total Cost of 98.0069 - Schwab Account: 

YTM: 4.592%

B. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.125% Coupon Maturing on 11/15/32 at a Total Cost of 96.266 - Vanguard Account 

YTM: 4.699%

This is my first purchase of a treasury maturing in 2032.  

C. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.125% Coupon Maturing on 7/31/28 at a Total Cost of 98.6579- Schwab Account: 

YTM = 4.538%

I now own 2. 

D. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4.375% Coupon Maturing on 12/31/29 at a Total Cost of 99.054 - Schwab Account: 

YTM = 4.558%

I now own 2. 

E. Bought 1 Treasury Note 4% Coupon Maturing on 7/31/30 at a Total Cost of 96.9506- Schwab Account: 

YTM = 4.631%

5. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: 

The 3, 4, and 6 month treasury bill investment rates, listed below, are not consistent with a .25% cut in the federal funds rate on or before the June 2025 meeting, IMO. The 1 year IR indicates close to a 50/50 probability of 1 25 basis point cut after 6 months and prior to 12 months, closer to 12 than 6. 

A. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 1/21/25 Auction: 

182 Bill

Matures on 7/25/25: 

Interest: $210.56

Investment Rate: 4.314%

B. Bought 4 Treasury Bills at the 1/21/25 Auction: 

91 Day Bills  

Mature on 4/24/25

Interest: $42.62

Investment Rate: 4.32% 

C. Bought 1 Treasury Bill at the 1/21/25 Auction: 

52 Week Bill

Matures on 1/22/26 (when held to maturity, the interest income will be taxed in 2026)

Interest: $40.7 

Investment Rate: 4.21%

D. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 1/22/25 Auction: 

119 Day Bills

Mature on 5/27/25

Interest: $69.5

Investment Rate: 4.323%  

6. Tennessee Municipal Bond: 

I live in Tennessee which does not have a state income tax. I buy only Tennessee municipal bonds because I am familiar with the issuers, the credit ratings are high, and the state income tax issue is not an issue for me. 

Tennessee has a AAA credit rating. I live in Williamson County whose bonds have a AAA rating. The county seat of Williamson is Franklin which has a AAA rating. And my home is in Brentwood that has a AAA credit rating.   

Is Williamson County TN the Richest County in the US?

Visit Franklin | Official Guide to Franklin, TN

Brentwood TN Real Estate - Brentwood TN Homes For Sale | Zillow

A. Bought 5 Williamson County 2.25% GO Maturing on 4/1/29 at a Total Cost of 92.89 - Fidelity Account: 

Credit Rating: AAA

EMMA Page 

YTM: 4.112%

Current Tax Free Yield at TC = 2.42%

When held to maturity, which I will do, the "profit" of $355.5 will be taxed at ordinary income tax rates. 

I will own municipal bonds to restrain my marginal tax bracket creep higher.  

7. Preferred Stock Fund Eliminations: 

A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in FPF - Sold 83 at $18.15 in Fidelity Account:  

Quote: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Overview (FPF) 

Proceeds: $1,506.06

I still own some shares in my Schwab Account. 

I recently discussed this CEF in a YouTube. Closed End Preferred Stock Funds - YouTube I used it as an example of the known risks associated with leveraged CEFs that invest heavily in equity preferred stocks.  

Sponsor's website: First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF) In that video, I mentioned that I may own 0 to 150 FPF shares. This elimination brought me back down to 150 shares which are owned in my Schwab account, so I did not remember how many shares I actually owned until I went looking for the answer. I will consider eliminating the position held in my Schwab account in the $19-$19.5 range.  

Leverage: 34.93% as of 1/16/25 

Profit Snapshot: $235.99

5 Year Chart as of 1/14/25: 

The chart highlights two rough periods for this preferred stock CEF. The first was during the early stages of the pandemic when credit risk fears were causing a price decline down to about $10. The second period starting in 2022 was in response to interest rates rising. 

FPF closed multiple times over $24 in November and December 2021. The price was cut about in half in March 2022, recovered to $22+ by early April 2022 and then retreated back down to $13+ in October 2023 before recovering back to $18 in response to the FED rate cuts. 

What is not yet recognized IMO in this last price recovery is that intermediate and long term rates have been rising starting in September 2024, even though treasury bills and other short term securities maturing in less than 1 year have declined in yield. I view the competition for preferred stocks to be U.S. treasuries maturing in the 5 to 10 year time frame, not the T Bills. 

Dividend: Monthly at $.1375 per share 

FPF Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha

Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 (owned all as of)

My first roundtrip was in 2016, when I netted a $19.48 profit on 103+ shares sold at $21.96:

B. Eliminated PFXF - Sold 40 at $17.07 - Schwab Account: 

Quote: VanEck Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF

Leveraged: No

Proceeds: $682.77

Last Discussed: Item # 7.A. Added to PFXF - Bought 10 at $17.065 (8/8/24 Post); Item # 1.D. Added to PFXF - Bought 5 at $15.75 (10/28/23 Post); Item # 6.E. Added to PFXF - Bought 5 at $16.04; 5 at $15.95 (10/7/23 Post)

Profit Snapshot: $19.9

Sponsor's website: VanEck Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF

Expense Ratio: .4%

Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate

There was an unusually large payment of $.3738. The fund does not identify the sourcing. I suspect that this was a year end special distribution sourced from short term capital gains. I would not include that payment in a dividend yield calculation since no similar payment has been made in the past other than one other time in December 2017.  FPF Dividend History & Date 

Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 (owned all as of)

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.