Subsequent to the publication of this post earlier today (1/21/26), Trump announced that he had a productive discussion with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that led to a "framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland". Trump backed off his idiotic plan to impose new tariffs on 8 European countries until Greenland was acquired by the U.S. This was not going to happen, and the only result would have been to postpone the finalization of a trade deal with the EU and the resumption of a trade war.
Since this moronic tariff threat has been removed, I will resume my normal stock trading that focuses on dividend stocks.
I am not going to change anything that I said in the post published earlier today.
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I mentioned in a comment published on 1/17/26 that I was going to place a hold on U.S. stock purchases until I can assess newly created risks with more information.
The only common stock purchase discussed in this post was made prior to pausing all purchases.
I will not be publishing future posts until I have at a minimum $1,000 in stock trades to discuss. If I elect to do more selling, there may be another post in a week or so.
Since my stock allocation is close to 8% of my total portfolio held in 4 brokerage accounts, I will probably refrain from much selling but will likely harvest some profits as I normally do.
My primary investment objectives are in order of importance: capital preservation, income generation and capital appreciation. My general goal each year is to harvest $25,000 in realized gains from selling stocks and stock funds as a supplement to my interest and dividend income. That objective has become far more difficult now due to my low stock allocation.
Given the difficulty in achieving that capital gain objective, I have started to sell some of my vintage baseball cards, one of my alternative asset categories, using a third party consignment service. As previously discussed, that service sold 3 of my cards earlier this month on Ebay. The gross proceeds were slightly more than $4,000, and I received $3,789.87 after all commissions.
The total cost basis would be less than $150. I am not going to sell the cards myself, far too much trouble. I am selling cards with low grades.
I did some light stock selling yesterday.
Stocks are in a rally mode this morning (1/21/26). Buy the dip remains a potent force in levitating the stock market.
Trump also calmed markets by making this comment at Davos this morning: "We probably won’t get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force where we would be, frankly, unstoppable. But I won’t do that." This is the first time that he took the military option off the table. It is the first sane comment that I have heard from him about Greenland.
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Dollar Value of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Inflow Common Stock (Item # 1): $944.05 (bought last week)
Outflow Common Stocks (Item # 4): $1,745.85
Realized Gains: $747.68
Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $801.8
Corporate Bonds (Item # 2): $12,000 in principal amount at a total cost of $11,867.74
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction (Item # 3): $22,000 in principal amount
I elected to increase my T Bill auction purchases last Monday to $22K in principal amount based on the flow of funds into my Schwab sweep account that pays almost nothing. The proceeds are from maturing T Bills in that account.
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Economy:
Danish pension fund to sell $100 million in U.S. Treasurys
Trump April 2025: "I run the country and the world"
Trump: ‘I run the country and the world’
Trump's win in November 2024 was not some kind of aberration but a reflection of America now IMO.
One factor that has not been factored into U.S. stock valuations is the fact that the U.S. is governed by a demagogic crazy person who has no restraints, internal or external, is a pure authoritarian, acts impulsively with anger and rage without reasoned thought of the potential consequences based on accurate information, is unable to make accurate statements and who forms and implements policies based on false narratives and information which he may actually believe which IMO is arguably worse than just lying all the time about almost everything. (My Video: Trump's Personality - YouTube, published over 1 year ago)
What makes it worse is Trump's ignorance, his unwillingness to learn, and a total inability to accept accurate information that proves that his representations are demonstrably false.
He will simply keep repeating the false information, over and over again, which has been proven to work on the intended audience by over 10 years of past history.
I doubt there is a single person in his Administration who would ever dare to tell him that he is misleading the public with false statements and provide him with the contradictory facts. And, none of this is going to change for the better and will only become far worse.
Trump threatens 200% tariff on French wines and champagnes
Trump: NATO members to face tariffs increasing to 25% until a Greenland purchase deal is struck The tariffs will start on 2/1/26 at 10% and will increase to 25% on 6/1. Trump will impose those additional tariffs on U.S. importers who receive products shipped from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland.
Since Greenland is a self governing territory of Denmark, those nations, with the possible limited exception of Denmark, do not have any say as to whether that country can be sold to the U.S.
Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that the U.S. - EU Trade Treaty has not been approved by the European nations. Why make concessions or agree to anything knowing that Trump will come back with new tariffs and demands?
If Trump follows through with those new tariffs, this may end up being the breaking point in Europe's dealing with Trump.
The U.S. government is Trump and Trump can not be trusted to honor any deal.
Until the Supreme Court decides the legality of Trump taxing U.S. importers under IEEPA, I doubt that Europe will take a concrete retaliation measure. If the Monarchists find that Trump acted legally, then I would anticipate a trade war resuming that will involve both the EU and China (U.S. importers are now having to pay a 25% republican tariff tax on shipments from China in addition to the other tariffs since China purchases goods from Iran)
Europe mulls counter-tariffs, ACI against the U.S. amid Greenland crisis
The alleged reason for imposing new tariffs on 8 EU nations is that those nations are not supporting Greenland's annexation by the U.S. and may actually defend Greenland from a U.S. military invasion as required by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. Trump claims that those 8 countries "have journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown" and that "is a very dangerous situation for the Safety, Security, and Survival of our Planet."
It is simply impossible for a sane U.S. President to make those statements. This is a link to that totally bonkers Trump Truth Social rant, a normal bonkers rant for the U.S. President.
The current leaders of the U.S. military IMO will carry out a Trump order to attack Greenland and seize it even if that means a shooting war with the other NATO countries. I view it as almost a certainty that they will comply.
Prior to publishing that post, Trump had claimed that the Europeans had not done enough to protect Greenland. So they send some troops and Trump erupts with that insane Truth Social rant.
Treasury secretary defends Greenland tariffs: 'The national emergency is avoiding the national emergency' During the interview, the failed hailed fund manager, who is Trump's Treasury Secretary, stated 4 times that people were reacting hysterically to Trump's plan to annex Greenland and impose more tariffs on exports from 8 European countries until this annexation happens.
Trump and officials throughout his Administration will justify any unilateral Presidential decision on national security and emergency grounds. Now, the justification extends to a national emergency to avoid a national emergency.
The 6 Monarchists on the Supreme Court will defer IMO to any or virtually all Trump actions justified on national security or a national emergency, no matter how ridiculous the claim.
This is a natural consequence of their vesting unchecked Kingly powers in a President, knowing of course that the immediate beneficiary of their largesse is Trump. Growing the powers of an already Imperial Presidency, and then immunizing from criminal prosecution, incentivizes, greenlights is not too strong of a word, someone like Trump to become a dictator by claiming that virtually any action is justified by national security or a national emergency, including something like placing a tariff on bathroom vanities which he has in fact done.
The republicans in Congress will not restrain him.
After a meeting with Rubio and Vance, the Danish Foreign Minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, stated that the U.S. wants to conquer Greenland which is a stark statement for a Diplomat to make.
Rasmussen: "It’s clear that the president has this wish of conquering over Greenland. We made it very, very clear that this is not in the interest of the Kingdom" (emphasis added). POLITICO
Trump Links Greenland Threat to Nobel Snub in Norway Letter I discussed that bonkers letter in a comment published on 1/19/26 where I referenced this article written by Anne Applebaum: Trump’s Letter to Norway Should Be the Last Straw - The Atlantic
It is not possible for a sane American President to write this letter sent to Norway's Prime Minister. Only an insane one could write this letter and send it for all to read throughout the world:
This is not a new revelation about his mental condition but something that has been known or must be presumed to have been known last November given the number of statements and actions manifesting this condition over an extended period of time.
Trump's Letter to Norway - YouTube (AI created version)
Since Trump invariably misleads voters, I am going to make a few other points to counter the false claims that Trump is using to justify the U.S. annexing Greenland.
There is already a treaty that allows the U.S. to station troops in that country. The 1951 Agreement Allowing US Military in Greenland Trump does not mention that agreement in order to diminish what is already a significant U.S. military presence there and the fact that the U.S. recognized Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland in that agreement, something that Trump is disputing now. Who owns Greenland? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank ("Denmark’s claim is unimpeachable. In the 1951 Defense of Greenland Agreement with Denmark, the US unambiguously recognizes ‘the sovereignty of the Kingdom of Denmark’ over Greenland.") Trump now claims that the U.S. has an equal if not superior claim to the territory, notwithstanding the 1951 agreement. Does that matter to the republicans? No of course it doesn't.
Another fact that is overlooked by the republicans is that NATO is obligated to defend Greenland against an aggressor. That would include the U.S. No foreign power has attacked Greenland since the formation of NATO knowing that any such attack would start a war with NATO, which Trump is for some reason trying to break asunder.
There is also Article 42.7 of the Treaty of European Union that would require all signatories to resist a military invasion of Denmark's territory which includes Greenland. Fact check
“This Is a Rupture, Not a Transition”: Carney Signals Major Reset on China Ties - YouTube Former allies understand that the U.S. has turned hostile to them, even going so far to implement measures intended to cause substantial harm to their economies.
Canada and other former U.S. allies are already responding by reducing economic ties to the U.S. and increasing them with China.
The new International Legal Order implemented by Trump and his minions are the Law of the Jungle and Might Makes Right. No other international laws exists to restrain republicans in power and they will not restrain themselves.
Foreign leaders and citizens understand that Trump is not some temporary aberration in the U.S.. He has substantial and strong support among the population, somewhere close to 40% of voters who will not waver no matter what he does. He has merely grown what was already present in the U.S.
What is really behind Trump pressuring western democracies to facilitate Greenland's absorption into the U.S. through the unilateral imposition of tariffs and other coercive measures? This is one answer: Greenland’s Billionaire Investors: Bezos, Gates, Altman And More Followed Trump’s Lead - Forbes It is all about seizing Greenland's natural resources or possibly being able to station nuclear weapons in that country that would increase the likelihood of a world war.
Sell America trade: Dollar, Treasury prices tumble; gold spikes amid Trump's Greenland push
Ray Dalio fears 'capital wars' could follow Trump's actions with countries dumping U.S. assets
Trump threatens 200% tariff on French wines and champagnes
Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser warns of job cuts and says it's time to raise the bar in memo to staff | Fortune (1/14/26). Citigroup announced 1,000 layoffs last week as part of a multiyear plan to reduce its global workforce by 8%. The reduction in workforce is being driven by adoption of AI and automation.
BlackRock CEO delivers blunt warning on US national debt - TheStreet
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Trump and His Authoritarian Party:
Trump Floats Cancelling Election, Then Insists He Won't | TIME; Trump Keeps Testing the Idea of Canceling Elections - YouTube Trump claims that he was only joking when saying it could cancel the midterm elections. Trump is constantly making statements that are later characterized as funny jokes. Cancel the midterm elections - Ha Ha Ha, that was a good one.
The Trump Administration’s Campaign to Undermine the Next Election This Trump effort has broad support among members of his anti-democracy party.
In Trump's America, and this is abundantly clear to anyone paying attention, all protesters against his policies are paid to do so or are "professional agitators and insurrectionists.
Those claims have repeatedly been made by Trump and others in his administration, most notably by Stephen Miller and many others, and are accepted by tens of millions as true without anything resembling evidence admissible in a court under the Rules of Evidence given to support the claims. Tens of millions in the U.S. are no longer persuadable with accurate information and exist premanently in an Orwellian bubble created for them.
These claims are not facts, but conclusions stated for ulterior motives, including manipulation which is easily done with demonstrably false information and using them as justifications for Trump sending his personal paramilitary force in masks, the National Guard and/or the military to put down protests Pentagon readies 1,500 troops for potential Minnesota deployment; The Insurrection Act explained-NPR; 10 U.S. Code Subtitle A Chapter 13 Part I - INSURRECTION | U.S. Code; The Insurrection Act, Explained | Brennan Center for Justice
Trump: "If the corrupt politicians of Minnesota don't obey the law and stop the professional agitators and insurrectionists from attacking the Patriots of I.C.E., who are only trying to do their job, I will institute the INSURRECTION ACT, which many Presidents have done before me, and quickly put an end to the travesty that is taking place in that once great State" (Trump claims that he won Minnesota three times in presidential elections, but the certified election results show that he lost 3 times)
The only person in modern U.S. history who attempted to foment an "insurrection" is Donald Trump after the 2020 election and on January 6th.
But in Trump's Orwellian revisionist history, accepted as factual by tens of millions, the mob that stormed the capital on January 6th, sent by Trump to prevent the peaceful transfer of power, were true patriots engaged in peaceful protests, with the violence against police officers committed by the FBI who were trying to make Trump look bad. White House Debuts January 6th Revisionist History Website; At least 33 pardoned insurrectionists face other criminal charges—but many are now going free - CREW | Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington; Jan. 6 rioters pardoned by Trump had criminal records; Fact checking Donald Trump's statements about Jan. 6
DOJ investigating Gov. Tim Walz and Mayor Jacob Frey, sources say The Trump DOJ is using the powers of the federal government to intimate and threaten critics. There is no basis for this criminal investigation other than to punish the exercise of First Amendment rights. Trump's DOJ has gone totally rogue and that is only in its early stages. Adam Serwer is correct in noting that the DOJ has been turned into Trump's personal law firm and will prosecute anyone. Trump Can Prosecute Anyone Now - The Atlantic
Are Trump's DOJ and DHS now properly characterized as domestic terrorist organizations or are they just conspirators routinely violating 18 U.S. Code § 241 - Conspiracy against rights?
ICE is approaching people in Minneapolis demanding proof of citizenship; Kristi Noem Says Americans Should Be Prepared to Prove Their Citizenship Maybe I need to take a picture of my birth certificate on my IPhone. But I am white so maybe that is not necessary.
Most of the people being seized by ICE have committed no crimes. They support the U.S. economy as consumers, pay state, local and federal taxes including SS even though they will not receive SS benefits, and perform jobs in many cases that U.S. citizens do not want particularly in agriculture and food processing. 5% of People Detained By ICE Have Violent Convictions, 73% No Convictions | Cato at Liberty Blog Republicans are lying to you about what they are actually doing. Lying works for them so why stop?
Judge slams government for conspiring to chill free speech of pro-Palestine students; Reagan Appointed Judge Accuses Trump, Rubio, and Noem of “Unconstitutional Conspiracy” | The New Republic
21-year-old says he's blind in left eye after federal agent shot him with less-lethal round at California protest; ICE Shot a 21-Year-Old in the Face and Blinded Him - YouTube
Photos: Minneapolis Neighborhoods vs. ICE - The Atlantic
Pepper spray on the playground as children shelter from ICE; ICE Storms Schools and Day Cares, Leaving Minnesota Families Terrified - Inquisitr News
ICE Dragged an Old Man Into the Snow. Now DHS Is Lying About It. - YouTube; DHS is lying about this! - YouTube With snow on the ground and near zero temperature, heavily armed masked ICE agents snatched an elderly man, who was a U.S. citizens, out of his house and dragged him away through the snow even though he had almost no clothes on.
Photo authentically shows ICE agents detaining US citizen in freezing weather | Snopes.com
Nothing said by ICE representatives or by their aparticheks in right wing media, can be taken at face value. Citizens need to continue taking videos and providing eyewitness testimony documenting what this Trump paramilitary force is actually doing rather than relying on anything that ICE says about anything.
Cruelty is the objective.
How many Nazis have been hired by ICE? Recruitment is probably strong from right wing militia groups, white nationalists, assorted racists and wingnuts, and other actual or potentially violent extremists.
This kind of data is needed to perform a proper oversight function that the Republicans will never do when in control of Congress and will probably require the appointment of a Secretary of Homeland Security interested in public responsibility, honesty and transparency which will unquestionably exclude the current occupant IMO.
ICE agents pull guns on police officers 'of color' and demand papers: MN chief - Raw Story; Minnesota police chiefs say federal agents are pulling over cops and demanding papers - Alternet.org
New video contradicts Border Patrol account of Chicago shooting, lawyer says - CBS News A U.S. citizen was shot five times by Charles Exum and was then arrested by the government after surviving the gunshot wounds. DHS said she was a domestic terrorist. This is the statement released by the Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin: "Our brave law enforcement officers were rammed by vehicles and boxed in by 10 cars. Agents were unable to move their vehicles and exited the car… law enforcement was forced to deploy their weapons and fire defensive shots."
Video evidence contradicted those claims made by McLaughlin. The shooter stated in a text message "I fired 5 rounds and she had 7 holes. Put that in your book boys." Bragging. Body camera footage showed another officer in Exum's car make this statement: "Do something, bitch", and then Exum opened fire according to this report. Marimar Martinez shooting: How the government’s defense of a Border Patrol agent fell apart | CNN U.S. citizen shot by Border Patrol: "I feared for my life" - YouTube
It would have also been difficult to explain why the government allowed Exum to move his vehicle 1000 miles and then have repairs done, even though the government charged Martinez with ramming Exum's car and experts would need to reconstruct what happened with his vehicle in its original damaged state. Federal vehicle in Chicago ramming case may have had repairs before defense looked at it. Can the court do anything about it? Destroying evidence is still frowned upon by judges.
Martinez claimed that Exum rammed her. Video: A woman is accused of ramming a Border Patrol agent with a car. Her attorney says that’s not what happened | CNN The government dropped the charges against Martinez. I am expecting that a civil lawsuit will be filed by Martinez, and then the judicial system can sort it out.
Stephen Miller: Minnesota officials staging ‘insurgency against the federal government’
Stephen Miller: MN Cops Ordered to Stand Down, Surrender
Kristi Noem says Trump has the 'authority' to invoke Insurrection Act - YouTube
Renee Good shot up to 4 times in Minneapolis ICE shooting
This video analysis of the shooting provides evidence IMO that Good's vehicle did not come in contact with Ross. Video Analysis of ICE Shooting Sheds Light on Contested Moments | Visual Investigations - YouTube As I discussed in a recent comment, I view it as likely that the state will seek to indict Ross using this kind of evidence. I agree with the legal analysis in this video published by Harry Litman: SHOCK New Details in Good Killing Could CHANGE THE CASE - YouTube. Does this matter to republicans? No.
Top ICE official is asked whether Americans can trust investigation into Renee Good's killing This DHS guy, Marcos Chiles, is overflowing with B.S. The issue is whether Americans can rely on DHS claims without evidence confirming the truth. The answer IMO is no.
There is a division in the DOJ that investigates every killing by a federal official, but Todd Blanche shut down their investigation before it even started, which resulted in 6 career prosecutors in that office resigning since they had been prevented from doing their jobs by a political appointee and former Trump attorney. 'No basis' for investigation into ICE shooting of Minn. woman: DOJ; Sidelining of DOJ's Civil Rights Division in ICE shooting is unusual, legal experts say - CBS News Instead, Blanche ordered an investigation of Renee's widow, which prompted at least 6 resignations of career prosecutors in the Minneapolis Federal D.A.'s office.
Labor Dept. accused of echoing Nazi slogan in social media post This has been common in Trump's second term. How worried should we be that political leaders keep making oblique Nazi references?; Trump responds to anti-ICE backlash by posting white nationalist memes | Vox; White House post nods to racist, far-right subculture, extremism expert says
Trump's rhetoric over the years have included many Nazi and Fascist slogans like Lying Press, enemy of the people, poisoning the blood, and describing opponents as vermin. Trump says immigrants are ‘poisoning the blood of our country.’ What is even more disturbing is that the Trumpsters applaud - some laugh- when he makes those kind of statements.
Hitler made this statement in Mein Kampf: "All great cultures of the past perished only because the originally creative race died out from blood poisoning."
It has been widely reported that Trump kept a copy of Hitler's speeches near his bed. What is surprising is how successful Trump has been in acquiring and maintaining power in the U.S. using Hitler's language, rhetoric and tactics coupled with a flood of demonstrably false claims, narratives and statements. It has worked for him.
Trump vs. Hitler: Spot the Difference | The Daily Show - YouTube; Trump, Hitler and how democracies die | Front Burner - YouTube; Trump praised Nazi generals' loyalty to Hitler, The Atlantic claims - YouTube; 1990 report: Ivana Trump told her lawyer Donald Trump kept Hitler speeches beside bed
DHS deploys white nationalist, anti-immigrant graphics to recruit
Nick Fuentes, Andrew Tate Filmed Dancing to pro-Hitler Song—Club Apologizes - Newsweek; Megyn Kelly Gushes Over 'Very Smart' Groyper Nick Fuentes; Nick Fuentes Kelly is one of the MAGA Queens.
Mike Lindell (R) Vows To Arrest Anti-ICE Protesters as Governor
Trump threatens to sue JPMorgan Chase for 'debanking' him The purported basis of that legal claim is that the 2020 election was stolen from him and the assault on the Capital to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power by "patriots", later held as "hostages", was justified. One legal foundation for this claim is that Trump decides how much money he wants and banks have to lend it to him, notwithstanding his long history of loan defaults (personal and businesses owned) and failures to pay all that was due lenders. Trump defaulted on $287M in bank loans, new report shows - YouTube; Personal and business legal affairs of Donald Trump - Wikipedia
Trump has been busy issuing pardons to those convicted of fraud. Trump pardoned businessman tied to Ohio investor fraud case; Trump pardons Florida fraudster after commuting her sentence during his first term (both cases involved separate fraud schemes or normal business practices in Trump's America); Convicted of bilking investors, Nikola founder and Trump donor gets a presidential pardon | AP News; Trump issues pardon for Devon Archer - Fraud Conviction- CBS News - Southern District of New York | Devon Archer Sentenced To A Year And A Day In Prison For The Fraudulent Issuance And Sale Of More Than $60 Million Of Tribal Bonds | United States Department of Justice So how concerned is Trump about those committing fraud?
If you want a Trump pardon, it is important to make a large donation to his PAC and to praise him profusely.
The 6 Republican Justices have insulated all Presidents from criminal prosecution for selling pardons, even if a President admits on national television that the pardon was issued in exchange for money paid to the President. Read the decision. This is a clear and accurate statement of the law now.
Issuing a pardon is an enumerated Article 1 Presidential Constitutional Power whose exercise is entitled to an absolute immunity from criminal prosecution according to the 6 Republican Justices.
But receiving money in exchange for pardons is only a minor issue compared to the Monarchists incentivizing the President to commit crimes, including those relating to overturning election results, through their creation in 2024 of an absolute immunity as a practical matter (My Videos: Republican Justices Greenlight the President to Commit Crimes - YouTube).
Republicans may have a different opinion about the creation of that immunity when a liberal democrat is President and starts doing what Trump has done and will do but with different objectives. But that would be a bridge too far now, requiring them to think ahead. What goes around, comes around as the saying goes but they do not see it and it will dawn on them finally when the democrats start to exercise that kind of power.
History Proves That Presidents Can Be Held Accountable | Brennan Center for Justice While claiming to be originalists, at least when that standard reaches the desired result, the 6 Monarchists will ignore historical information that is inconsistent with what they want to do as a policy matter which includes undermining the very reason for the American Revolution by granting Presidents Kingly powers that King George would have envied in 1776. (My Videos: Presidential Immunity for Crimes and the Hypocrisy of the Originalists - YouTube and Brief history of results oriented Supreme Court Decisions - YouTube). And, they also ignored a duty imposed on the President in Article 1 to "take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed", effectively eliminating that Constitutional provision in order to create an immunity from criminal prosecution, even after the President leaves office, that is nowhere to be found in the Constitution.
The result flowing from creating Presidential immunity was initially to protect Trump from criminal charges, allowing him to win the 2024 election, but, more importantly, the decision unleashed Trump to violate laws since he now believes no law can restrain him.
Trump knows for certain that republican politicians, who cower under his constant stream of threats, will not restrain him from dictatorial actions, no matter how illegal they are and no matter how much damage is caused to the U.S. economy and standing in the free world.
Trump has been unleashed by republican judges and politicians, and they know who they have given that power and have done it anyway.
Trump encourages Rep. Julia Letlow to primary Sen. Bill Cassidy She has now announced her candidacy. Senator Cassidy was one of the Republican Senators who voted to convict Trump of an impeachment charge of inciting an insurrection on January 6th. Cassidy also correctly noted that the federal criminal charges in the documents case against Trump was almost a slam dunk for a conviction, which indicates that he actually looked at the evidence warranting the indictment before forming an opinion, something that is extremely rare for republicans to do except when the person charged is Bill Clinton or some other democrat.
Trump was protected by Judge Aileen Cannon in that case, so a jury was never allowed to hear the evidence and decide on Trump's guilt. Trump is effectively above the law and unaccountable to it. He is certainly acting as if that was in fact the case. Cannon has also prevented Jack Smith from publicly discussing the evidence in that case.
Trump fawns over violent motorcycle gang while blasting migrants: 'They voted for me'- RawStory Trump did receive the KKK and NAZI votes.
Trump governs through threats and fear rather than persuasion using arguments based on facts. Nothing could be clearer.
The threats take many forms including lambasting republicans who dare to criticize him, filing frivolous lawsuits financed by his benefactors against critics where the victims have to incur substantial legal expenses to defend thereby silencing some dissent, abusing the powers of the Presidency to coerce individuals, law firms, universities, companies and states to bend to his will and kiss his ring, using the DOJ to enact his vengeance campaign against critics, and using military force or threats thereof against foreign countries and even U.S. citizens.
What is surprising to me is that those actions have substantial support among Americans, close to 40% of the voters in some estimates and those are just the hard core Trumpsters.
ICE Is Stealing Credit for Arresting People Already in Prison; ICE takes credit for some criminals that were already in Minnesota prisons | MPR News, Donald Trump Sends Warning To Republican For ‘Betrayal’: ‘We’re After You’ - Newsweek DHS deliberately misleads the public. This is just one example.
And according to those calling themselves Christians, Trump was chosen by God to rule in America. Trump on his own initiative apparently decided to extend that power to the World.
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It is highly unusual for a state legislature to redraw congressional districts so long after a census.
So far, the Indiana republicans have resisted Trump's demands to eliminate the 2 remaining districts held by Democrats.
Trump has explicitly stated that he will use his power and money to defeat an Indiana Republican state senator who did not go along with his demand to gerrymander congressional districts so that the Democrats would not be able to win a single seat anywhere in the state. 'We're after you Bray': Trump targets Indiana GOP leader Fear, threats and retribution is just how Trump governs and that is supported by party members.
Trump started the gerrymandering process 5 years after the 2020 Census since he has become increasing worried that a fair election would result in the republicans losing the House and possibly the Senate.
So he demanded that the Texas republicans redraw the Congressional districts to prevent 4 or 5 Democrats from winning elections. The Texas republicans complied with that order from their Dear Leader, of course, even though they had already gerrymandered the districts earlier.
That started the ball rolling and more is to come as the Florida republicans comply with their Dear Leader's demand to gerrymander Democrat incumbents out of existence.
The California democrats did respond to the Texas gerrymander but at least allowed the voters to have a say. Virginia's democrats are preparing to respond to the Florida gerrymander demanded by Trump.
The 6 Republican Justices, all of whom are Monarchists, have permitted political gerrymandering as part of their anti-democracy push and ongoing effort to undermine the reason for the American Revolution. Americans did not want a King.
They have also ignored obvious racial gerrymandering that is intended to deprive minorities of a say in congressional elections which was the case in their decision on a South Carolina republican gerrymander where the republicans put as many black voters into one congressional district as they could. Court rules for South Carolina Republicans in dispute over congressional map - SCOTUSblog
The Republicans in Tennessee also successfully implemented a racial gerrymander by taking most of the black voters out of Nashville and adding them to a newly created district that added rural areas and small town heavily dominated by Trump voters thereby disenfranchising black voters in congressional elections.
By splitting Nashville into 3 parts and joining each part with heavily Trumpified votes, the republicans in the state legislature also disenfranchised moderates in Nashville by putting them in two newly created congressional districts that included a significant majority of Trump voters.
Prior to this anti-democracy gerrymander, Nashville, a major U.S. city and an engine for growth in Tennessee's economy, was allowed by the Republicans to elect a Democrat and had done so until 2020.
Nashville voters, who would elect a Democrat, are no longer allowed by the republicans to elect one and are consequently now represented by 3 MAGA republicans, 100%+ pure Trumpsters who do not share the values of a clear majority of Nashville voters, and none of whom even live in the city.
My congressman is Andy Ogles who has done his best to imitate George Santos, wants Trump to run for a third term, and wants the National Guard to deploy to Nashville which now includes part of his congressional district. Economist, cop, sex crimes expert? The stories of Congressman Andy Ogles; US congressman calls for National Guard to be sent to Nashville & Memphis Trump carried Tennessee in the 2024 election with 64.2% of the vote. Tennessee election results 2024 | CNN Politics If the election was held again today, he would most likely improve on that margin of victory.
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2025 was ICE’s deadliest year in two decades. Here are the 32 people who died in custody; ICE Inspections Plummeted as Detentions Soared in 2025 | Project On Government Oversight
Immigration Agents Have Held More Than 170 Americans Against Their Will, ProPublica Finds — ProPublica; Kristi Noem Falsely Claims 'No American Citizens Have Been Arrested Or Detained' By ICE - YouTube Noem denies that this has happened. Kristi Noem says no Americans have been detained in ICE sweeps. That’s false. - Poynter Noem is shameless but that is an absolutely necessary job requirement to serve Trump and to execute his will.
Trump admin aides punished amid claims they helped Labor Secretary have affair with staffer - Raw Story; IG probe uncovers Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer visited a strip club with subordinates | New York Post What can you say? Trump neglected to fire all of the IGs. Firing of inspectors general threatens government accountability
In Trump's Administration, transparency means eliminating everyone who may tattle on misconduct.
When will Bondi's DOJ and Patel's FBI comply with the Epstein Files Transparency Act? Never is my best estimate. It looks and smells like an ongoing coverup. One month after the Epstein files deadline, only a fraction of the DOJ's records have been released
Trump has a 95% approval rating among republicans and that is not going to change much. The following thought never occurred to me after any election in my lifetime until Trump won a second term with 77+M adults voting for him. Why financially reward them by purchasing their products or services, now or at anytime in the future?
It is unfortunate that Trump can make false and misleading statements that will number well over 100,000 by January 2029, and still be regarded as an honest person who tells it like it is by tens of millions.
False or misleading statements by Donald Trump (first term) - Wikipedia
False or misleading statements by Donald Trump - Wikipedia
Trump stated last Tuesday that an American city looks better when it is occupied by the U.S. military. It is impossible to be surprised by that kind of statement now, since it is so normal for him to make far worse on a daily basis.
++++
1. Small Ball Common Stock Purchase:
This stock was bought prior to my pause on all stock purchases.
I do not know how long that pause will last. It depends in part on how far stocks decline and whether I have enough information to assess new economic risks created by Trump.
A. Restarted SNY - Bought 10 at $47.28; 10 at $46.75:
Quotes:
USDs: Sanofi ADR (SNY)
Euros: Sanofi S.A. (France: Euronext Paris)
1 ordinary share equals 2 ADR shares.
Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
Cost: $944.05
Currency Impacts on Dividend Yield and ADR Price: When the Euro is rising against the dollar using a 12 month period, this will cause the USD priced ADR to outperform the ordinary shares priced in Euros and will also cause a higher annual dividend payment and yield.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Eliminated SNY - Sold 10 at $50.22 (10/25/25 Post)(profit snapshot =
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.A. Restarted SNY -Bought 10 at $46.63 (10/19/24 Post)
France charges a .4% tax on these purchases that increased my tax cost basis by $3.76. This tax is not currently levied on the proceeds received when the stock is sold.
9 Month Product Sales:
Without Dupixent revenues, reported at €11.468B YTD through the third quarter, this stock would hold zero interest to me. Revenues for this drug were up 19.3% on a reported basis.
 |
| Dupixent 3 and 9 Month Revenues |
The question is whether stock investors are correctly valuing SNY's pipeline and recent product launches.
While there is no certain answer, only opinions based on the data, it appears at least reasonable to form an opinion, at least to me, that only established products are being included in the current price.
However, the consensus opinion formed by stock investors, which has not changed for several years, is that SNY is fairly valued somewhere in the $45-$55 price range.
Part of the negative sentiment about the pipeline involves negative readouts for the pipeline drugs amlitelimab, and tolebrutinib. Sanofi’s MS Drug Tolebrutinib Fails Phase III Trial, While FDA Again Delays Approval Application for another indication - BioSpace; Sanofi provides update on tolebrutinib regulatory submission in non-relapsing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis; Sanofi’s touted eczema drug Amlitelimab hits study goal, but data fall short of expectations | BioPharma Dive; Itepekimab met the primary endpoint in one of two COPD phase 3 studies The negative response to those readouts may be overdone, but I lack any expertise to form an educated guess on that issue.
Average cost per share: $47.2
AC without a .4% tax at $47.015.
Dividend: Paid Annually
Dividend l Sanofi
Dividend Paid on 10 Shares Owned in 2025 and Deductions Therefrom:
Penny Rate: USD $2.195
Tax Rate: 12.7%
Penny Rate after Tax and Annual ADR Management Fee: $1.854
I will not own foreign stocks subject to dividend withholding in a retirement account since there is no way to recover the foreign tax withheld. I will recover most of foreign dividend withholding taxes through a foreign tax credit. Recovery of the entire amount would require my marginal tax rate to be higher than it has been during my retirement years.
Yield: Impossible to calculate given the changes in the EUR/USD exchange. The last annual USD dividend was $2.1952 before France's dividend withholding tax. Sanofi (SNY) Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha At an annual US$2.2 per share dividend, the dividend yield would be about 4.66% at $47.2, unadjusted for taxes.
I will frequently engage in harvesting the annual SNY dividend and then selling the shares at a profit and then wait to buy back the shares at a lower price closer to the next annual ex dividend date.
Last Ex Dividend: 5/9/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25):
Q3: continued sales and earnings progress
Earnings Press Release with more details.pdf
3rd Quarter Sales Growth: +7% using constant currencies
Revenues: €12.434B
3rd Q. Product Revenues:
When valuing the USD price shares, these E.P.S. numbers need to be dividend by 2 and then converted into USDs from Euros. It takes 2 ADRs to equal 1 ordinary share.
According to Schwab, the consensus E.P.S. estimate for the ADR was at an adjusted US$1.58 and with the actual at an adjusted $1.7 with the TTM adjusted E.P.S. for the ADR at US$2.91.
(the correct terminology is non-IFRS rather than non-GAAP)
IFRS: Understanding IFRS: Global Accounting Standards Explained
IFRS E.P.S. €2.3
Business E.P.S. €2.91 (or €1.455 per ADR share)
The Business E.P.S. number is similar to non-GAAP for U.S. corporations. The number will typically exclude amortization of intangibles, restructuring costs, gains or losses from disposals of non-current assets, costs related to litigation, and other non-operational charges and expenses.
9 Month Business E.P.S. €6.3 (or €3.15 per ADR share)
Reconciliation:
"Dupixent sales increased by 26.2% to €4.2 billion, first time above €4 billion in a quarter"
"Pharma launches increased sales by 57.1%, reaching €1.0 billion, driven by ALTUVIIIO and Ayvakit"
"Vaccines sales decreased by 7.8% to €3.4 billion, from lower influenza sales"
Revenues from drug launches:
SNY Realized Gains 2009 to Date = $716.93 (no snapshots of round-trips prior to 2009)
Analyst Reports Available to Schwab Customers:
Morningstar (10/24/25): 4 stars with a fair value estimate of US$63 and a narrow moat.
Argus (10/27/25): Buy with a $55 target price.
S&P (12/16/25): 4 stars with a $57 PT. Notes a limited patent expiry exposure until Dupixent in 2031.
I did not attempt to assess the impact of the republican tariff taxes on U.S. importers since I lack the relevant data on SNY exports and how much production can be shifted to the U.S. to avoid the republican tariff taxes.
2. Corporate Bonds: 12
As noted in a comment published on 1/15/26, I changed my bond search parameters from maturities in 2029 to maturities between 8/1/26 and ending on 8/1/27.
I will consider purchasing bonds in that short term maturity range where the YTM is greater than 4%, the bond has an investment grade rating, the purchase can be made at less than par value, and I am comfortable with the credit risk for the maturity. The last criteria mentioned is important since I am not comfortable owning a bond issued by a BDC when the maturity is too far into the future.
10 of the 12 bonds discussed below were issued by BDCs. The other 2 were issued by a REIT. Both are pass through entities that pay out all or most of their income in dividends, making them more risky than corporations that retain all or most of their net income.
The credit risk for BDC issued SU bonds IMO increases over a long period. What is a long period? At the moment, I am comfortable with maturities on most BDC bonds maturing within 18 months.
I am not concerned with interest rate risk since I anticipate that the FED will not raise the FF rate within the next 18 months.
The BDCs do face an interest rate risk of having to refinance maturing SU debt at higher coupons but that is based on a perceived slight increase in credit risks due to negative factors common to these companies now, including the squeeze on net interest margins resulting from variable rate loans resetting at lower coupons that outweigh the savings on variable rate debt.
For these short maturity bonds, I view the YTM as the only relevant yield number.
A. Bought 2 Blue Owl Credit Income 3.125% SU Maturing on 9/23/26 at a Total Cost of 99.063:
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Issuer: This is a private BDC that has the same credit ratings as Blue Owl Capital.
Total Cost: $1,981.26
Blue Owl Credit Income Fund SEC Filings
I now own 4 bonds.
My last purchase of this bond was discussed here: Item # 3.D. Bought 2 Blue Owl Credit Income Fund 3.125% SU Maturing on 9/23/26 at a Total Cost of 97.575 (7/15/25 Post)(YTM at Total Cost then at 5.232%)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
YTM: 4.52%
I had several 6 Blue Owl bonds mature on 1/15/26:
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I had 12 mature last year:
%20+%20$92.98%20.png){kind=small}
%20+$18.32.png){kind=small}
%20+$39.22%20.png)
%20+$53.74.png){kind=small}
%20+$55.04.png){kind=small}
%20+$69.34.png){kind=small}
B. Bought 2 Blue Owl Capital 3.125% SU Maturing on 4/13/27 at a Total Cost of 97.881 - Interactive Brokers Account:
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Issuer: Blue Owl Capital Corp. (OBDC) - Externally Managed BDC
Total Cost: $1,957.62
The Bond was originally issued by Blue Owl Capital III that was acquired by Blue Owl.
I now own 4 bonds.
I own the common stock. My most recent discussion can be found here: Item # 1.C. Bought 5 OBDC at $12.5 (1/8/26 Post)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.92%
I now own 10 Blue Owl Capital/Blue Owl Credit Income SU bonds.
The other 2 are the Blue Owl Capital 3.4% SU maturing on 7/15/26. Bond Page | FINRA.org; Item # 2.D. Bought 2 Blue Owl Capital 3.4% SU Maturing on 7/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.779 (4/4/25 Post)(YTM at my TC was then at 5.207%)
I will wait until I receive the proceeds from the 4 Blue Owl Credit Income Fund bonds maturing on 9/23/26 before considering the purchase of 2 more from that issuer or Blue Owl Capital.
C. Bought 2 Hercules Capital 2.625% SU Maturing on 9/16/26 at a Total Cost of 98.775:
Issuer: Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) - Externally Managed BDC
Total Cost: $1,975.5
HTGC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2
Credit Ratings-Hercules Capital, Inc.
Fitch has a BBB- rating: Fitch Affirms Hercules Capital at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
YTM at Total Cost: 4.506%
I own 2 Hercules Capital 3.375% SU bonds maturing on 1/20/27. Bond Page | FINRA.org, discussed at Item # 3.B. Bought 2 Hercules Capital 3.375% SU Maturing on 1/20/27 at a Total Cost of 97.532 (8/5/25 Post)(YTM at TC then at 5.136%)
D. Bought 2 Golub Capital 2.5% SU Maturing on 8/24/26 at a Total Cost of 98.99:
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Issuer: Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) - Externally Managed BDC
Total Cost: $1,979.8
I have a small ball position in the common stock. I last discussed a purchase here: Item # 1.C. Added to GSBC - Bought 6 at $13.79 (12/18/25 Post)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB-
Credit Ratings - Golub Capital BDC
Fitch has a BBB rating. Fitch Affirms Golub Capital BDC's IDR at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable
YTM at Total Cost: 4.356%
E. Bought 2 Barings BDC 3.3% SU Maturing on 10/23/26 at a Total Cost of 99.075:
%203.3%25%2010:23:26%20.png)
Issuer: Barings BDC Inc. (BBDC)
Total Cost: $1,981.5
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/25
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/25 Company assessment of credit risks can be found at pages 111-112.
BBDC SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Rating: Baa3/BBB-
Fitch has a BBB- rating. Fitch Affirms Barings BDC at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
YTM at Total Cost: 4.427%
I now own 4 bonds. The other 2 were bought at a total cost of 90.1: Item # 4.B. Bought 2 Barings BDC 3.3% SU Maturing on 11/23/26 at a Total Cost of $90.1 (12/9/23 Post)(YTM at TC was then at 7.066%)
Last Bond Offering (9/25): Prospectus for $300M 5.2% SU maturing in 2028.
I own the common shares but have been selling shares down to what I am willing to own longer term. Item # 1.D. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in BBDC - Sold 20 at $9.45+ (9/13/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $29.18); Item #1.K. Pared BBDC - Sold 10 at $10.76 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $18.97); Item # 1.G. Pared Duplicate Position BBDC in Fidelity Account - Sold 6+ at $9.97 and Item 1.H. Sold 5 BBDC at $10.05 - Schwab Account (2/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.99)
F. Bought 2 Tanger Properties LP 3.875% SU Maturing on 7/15/27 at a Total Cost of 99.603 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: Operating Entity for Tanger Inc (SKT) which does not guarantee the note
Total Cost: $1,992.06
This is my first purchase of a Tanger Properties bond. I have eliminated my common stock position.
SKT 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/25 Debt discussed starting at page 23.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.153%
3. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: 22
All of these purchases were made in my Schwab account using proceeds from maturing T Bills.
A. Bought 10 T Bills at the 1/20/26 Auction:
%207:23:26%20.png){kind=small}
182 Day Bill
Matures on 7/23/26
Interest: $177.96
Investment Rate: 3.634%
B. Bought 10 T Bills at the 1/20/26 Auction:
%204:23:26.png){kind=small}
Matures on 4/23/26
Interest: $90.75
Investment Rate: 3.673%
C. Bought 2 Treasury Bills at the 1/20/26 Auction:
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1 Year T Bill
Matures on 1/21/27
Interest: $68.35
Investment Rate: 3.528%
When held to maturity, the tax recognition of the interest income will be delayed until 2027.
4. Small Ball Common Stock/Stock Fund Sales:
A. Pared VHCOX Again - Sold 5 at $98.39:
Quote: Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund - Investor Class
Proceeds: $491.95
VHCOX – Performance – Morningstar The fund currently has a 3 star rating.
VHCOX – Portfolio- Morningstar
Sponsor's website: VHCOX (closed to new investors)
Profit Snapshot: $290.39
Average cost per share: $40.31 (40+ shares)
I am using average cost per share. Since I have not bought any shares for a long time, and am not reinvesting the dividends, the AC per share will remain unchanged after I sell shares.
Dividends: Paid annually.
VHCOX Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Dividend: $9.0398 per share
I received $$411.11 in cash:
Prior Annual Dividends During Ownership:
Per Share
2024: $6.6936
2023: $1.81
2022: $5.86
2021: $8.76
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Pared VHCOX - Sold 5 at $89.76 (7/29/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $247.24); Item # 4.A. Sold 5 VHCOX at $87.51 (7/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $235.99); Item # 1.D. Sold 5 VHCOX at $86.62 (2/10/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $231.54); Item # 1.A. Sold 5 VHCOX at $91.2 (12/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot =$255.04); Item # 1.B. Sold 2 VHCOX at $90.66 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.69); Item # 3.A. Pared VHCOX-Sold $500 at $71.62 and $500 at $73.02 (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $470.23); Item # 4 Sold 24+ VHCOX at $71.16 (1/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $562.11); Item # 6-Sold All VHCOX Shares Bought with Dividends (12/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.86): Item # 2.A. Sold 115+ VHCOX at $57.97 (3/1/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $522.35)
VHCOX Realized Gains to Date: $3,138.44
First Purchase: Item # 5 Initiated Position in VHCOX (4/9/13 Post)
B. Eliminated CL in Schwab Account - Sold 4 at $84.79:
Quote: Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL)
Proceeds $339.06
Our Brands | Colgate-Palmolive
CL Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 1/16/26, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2026 was at $4.01 and at $4.19 in 2027. With this kind of E.P.S. growth, I view a 15 to 17 multiple on the $4.01 estimate as a reasonable valuation range for this company or a price between $60.15 and no more than $68.17 IMO.
I thought the stock had moved up too far, too fast given the problems that the company faces, the stock's valuation based on the past and anticipated E.P.S., and the low dividend yield.
I am keeping about the same number of shares in my Fidelity account and will buy in 1 share lots there provided each subsequent purchase is at the lowest price in the chain:
The last two purchases were in dollar amounts which I can do in this account. The next 1 share purchase must be below $74.76.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.52 per share ($2.08), last raised from $.50 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment.
At $84.79, my sales price, the yield is 2.45%.
If I assumed 10 more years of $.02 per share quarterly dividend increases, the yield at the end of that period would be about 5.85% based on a constant cost of $84.79.
I may not be around in 10 years but that would rate of growth, assuming it continued for 30 years or so, would be appealing to me at a younger age.
CL Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
CL has increased its dividend for 62 consecutive years and is consequently one of the Dividend Aristocrats. List of Dividend Aristocrats (25+ Years of Dividend Growth) This is a positive long term, but I am not thinking long term given my age.
I do not find that dividend yield to be attractive which is one reason I have classified purchases of this stock as a Placeholder. The other reasons are valuation using traditional criteria and slow dividend growth given my age as the most important consideration.
Next Ex Dividend: 1/21/26
Profit Snapshot: $33.1
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25): I discussed that report in this post: Item # 1.L. Added to Placeholder CL - Bought 1 at $77.13; 1 at $76; 1 at $75 (11/1/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
C. Pared IBRX - Sold 10 at $5.22+; 5 at $6.85:
Quote: ImmunityBio Inc. (IBRX)
Proceeds: $66.5
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket
The company has one FDA approved product, ANKTIVA®, which is "the first FDA-approved immunotherapy for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer that activates natural killer cells, T cells, and memory T cells for a long-duration response." The approval was limited to adult patients "with BCG-unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder cancer with CIS with or without papillary tumors." 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/25 at page 67
BCG: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) Therapy for Bladder Cancer | Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
CIS: Carcinoma in situ
The pop last Friday was due to 2 announcements that day and one on the prior day:
ImmunityBio Announces Durable Complete Response of 15 Months with a Chemotherapy-Free CD19 CAR-NK Cell Therapy in Waldenstrom Lymphoma - ImmunityBio (1/16/26)(4 patients)
Anktiva is also in Phase 2 trials for brain and colon cancer indications.
Immunotherapy Clinical Trials Pipeline - ImmunityBio
The pop last Monday was to this announcement:ImmunityBio Advances Regulatory Discussions with FDA on Potential Resubmission Path for ANKTIVA® in BCG-Unresponsive Papillary Bladder Cancer - ImmunityBio
As I explained in a comment published on 1/20/25, the FDA had refused to accept a supplemental filing for this indication (Refusal to File Letter). ImmunityBio Requests an Urgent Meeting With FDA to Address the Change in the Agency’s Unambiguous Guidance on Jan 2025 to Submit a sBLA for NMIBC BCG Unresponsive Papillary Disease, Following an Inconsistent Refusal to File Letter on May 2, 2025 (5/5/25) Investors concluded that the information in the 1/20/26 press release strongly suggested that the FDA would soon accept a NDA for that indication and that the data supported approval.
There are multiple negatives IMO.
(1) This drug is subject to Revenue Interest Payments that is more fully described at pages 45-48 of the last filed 10-Q. This is a complicated subject which can only be understood by reading that summary. These are interest payments made by IBRX to a company that basically loaned $200M to IBRX in December 2023 and another $100M in May 2024 after the FDA approved Antiva in April 2024. Those funds appear to have been entirely or largely used to fund trials and consequently the company is resorting to frequent stock offerings to raise additional capital.
(2) To finance clinical trials, the company has had multiple stock offerings at low prices with warrants. The warrant liabilities are discussed at page 55 of the 10-Q.
Recent examples: Prospectus (7/25); Prospectus (4/25); Prospectus (12/24, stock for promissory notes). This will have to continue unless another source of funding becomes available (e.g. license milestone payments)
The result is that the company had 946+M shares outstanding as of 9/30/25, up from 697+M in 2024 third quarter. The share count is rising rapidly. I am expecting a significant reverse stock split, possibly as much as 1 for 10.
There is an ongoing ATM share offering process as well. Prospectus
(3) There is also a $505M promissory note to Nant Capital,,discussed at pages 48-49 of the 10-Q, which is an investment vehicle of Soon-Shiong
 |
| Page 1, 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/25 |
IBRX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch The average E.P.S. estimates are for ($.35) in 2026 and at $.2 in 2027.
Profit Snapshots: $43.05
Remaining Position: 55 shares with an average cost per share at $2.41
 |
| Snapshat Intraday on 1/20/26 after last pare |
Last Discussed: Item # 1.M. Bought 25 IBRX at $2.56; 10 at $2.25 (8/26/25 Post) I discussed the 2025 second quarter loss report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Dividend: None and none expected
Last Loss Report (Q/E 9/30/25):
Shares outstanding: 946+M
Revenue: $32.0161M up from $6.106M
GAAP E.P.S. ($.07)
Product revenue up 434% compare the first nine months of 2024 based on an acceleration of Anktiva revenues.
Cash Position: "$257.8 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of September 30, 2025"
Other Recent News:
ImmunityBio Reports Complete Responses in Non-Hodgkin Waldenstrom Lymphoma Patients with Chemotherapy-Free, First-In-Class CD19 CAR-NK Immunotherapy (8/13/25, Phase 1 trial with preliminary results from 2 patients)
D. Pared RMT - Sold Highest Cost Shares at $11.49:
Proceeds: $114.91
Many of the highest cost shares that were sold were purchased with dividends.
Sponsor's website: Royce Micro-Cap Trust (RMT)
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/25 RMT information starts at page 22.
SEC Filings- Holdings as of 9/30/25
Royce Micro-Cap Trust (RMT) Portfolio | Morningstar (not rated) Lists top 23 holdings and is accessible to non-subscribers. I do not own any of those stocks.
Profit Snapshot: $30.1
Last Purchase Discussions: Item # 1.N. Added to RMT - Bought 10 at $7.85 (4/18/25 Post); Item # 3.C. Added 5 RMT at $7.69 (11/4/23 Post)
New average cost per share: $7.78 (43+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/21/26 after pare |
Dividend: Variable and paid quarterly.
RMT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
RMT has a managed distribution plan "at an annual rate of 7% of the average of the prior four quarter-end net asset values." Distributions and Dividends | Royce
Yield at New AC Using $.79 Annual: 10.15%
Data Date of 1/20/26 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $12.89
Closing Market Price: $11.42
Discount: -11.4%
Average 3 year discount: -11.95%
Sourced: RMT - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" tab)
Last Ex Dividend: 12/11/25 (owned all as of)
Largest Gain: $2,269.01 in 2014
 |
| 759+ Shares |
I was more adventuresome in 2014 than I am now.
Some Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Eliminated RMT in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $10.36 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $44.26); Item # 1.A. Eliminated RMT-Sold 113+ at $8.7 (2/22/20 Post)(profit snapshot +$79.95); Item # 1.B. Sold 100 RMT at $8.73 (1/25/20 Post)(profit snapshot =$23.25); Item # 3.A. Sold 274+ RMT at $8.9 - Schwab Taxable (8/3/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.41); Item 3.A. Sold 276+ RMT at $8.4 (5/17/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $61.77); Item # 4. Sold 200 RMT in RI at $9.3 (10/22/12)(profit snapshot = $84.37)
RMT Realized Gains to Date: $2,691.11
E. Pared MFC - Sold 5 at $37.14+ (Schwab Account):
Quote: Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC)
Proceeds: $185.73
CAD Priced Shares: Manulife Financial Corp (Canada: Toronto)
Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
Website: Manulife Global
Manulife Products and Services
Manulife Financial Corp Key Metrics | Morningstar
Profit Snapshot: $128.7
Average Cost per share: $11.41 (60 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 1/20/26 after pare |
I have been selling shares out of a lot purchased on 4/24/2020. Item # 2.D. Bought 100 MFC at $11.41 (5/9/2020 Post)
The AC per share will remain the same after each sale since I am not reinvesting the dividend and have not bought shares since that purchase.
Dividend: Quarterly at C$.44 per share (C$1.76 annually)
MFC Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
When paid into a U.S. citizens taxable account, Canada will collect a 15% tax.
Last 4 Dividends in USDs: $1.2541
Yield: The yield will vary depending on the CAD/USD exchange rate for each dividend payment.
Yield Using 2025 Annual US$1.25 per share and $11.41 AC: 10.99%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/25)
All amounts are in Canadian Dollars.
Manulife Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
Core E.P.S. = $1.16, up 16%
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.A. Pared MFC Again - Sold 5 at $32.14 (6/12/25 Post)($103.69); Item # 3.B. Pared MFC Again - Sold 5 at $32.02 (5/23/25 Post); Item # 1.A. Pared MRC - Sold 5 at $31.59 (4/5/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.91); Item # 2.A. Sold 5 MFC at $32.79 (11/27/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.95); Item # 2.A. Pared MFC - Sold 5 at $32.79 (11/27/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.95); Item # 4.B. Pared MFC Again - Sold 5 at $32.38 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $104.39); Item # 3.B. Pared MFC Again - Sold 5 at $30.36 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $94.9); Item # 2.B. Pared MFC - Sold 5 at $29.29 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $91.44); Item # 1.G. Eliminated Duplicate Position in MFC - Sold 14 at $20.1-Fidelity Account (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $143.61); Item # 1.A. Sold 32 MFC at $20.63 (2/2/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $104.79); Item # 2.A. Sold 20 MFC at $18.78 (11/2/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.69)
Largest Gain Not Discussed here (IB Account): $481.06
That trade was only mentioned in a comment: South Gent's Comment Blog # 7 - Seeking Alpha
Lowest prices paid to date: Item # 2.C. Bought in Fidelity Account 10 MFC at $10.15; 2 at $9.3; 2 at $8.9 (5/9/20 Post) Those lots have been sold.
Realized MFC Gain In USDs: $1,568.34
There have been no realized losses yet.
Owned Reset Equity Preferred: MFC-PM.TO, reset on 11/20/24 for five years at a 2.36% spread to the five year Canadian bond yield resulting in a new coupon of 5.542%, Manulife Financial Corporation announces Dividend Rates on Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 17 and Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class 1 Shares Series 18; Item # 2.A. Bought 100 MFCPRM:CA at C$15.14 (7/25/20 Post). At a C$15.15 total cost, the new yield is about 9.15%.
The equity preferred stocks have a BBB+ credit rating, which is high for a preferred stock. Manulife Credit Ratings
MFC-PM:CA Intraday on 1/20/26 (IB Account)
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| C$25, Unrealized Gain then at C$985 |
Owned SU Bond: 2 SU 4.15% Maturing on 3/4/26, Bond Page | FINRA.org
F. Eliminated USB - Sold 10 at $54.77:
Proceeds: $547.7
U.S. Bancorp, with approximately 70,000 employees and $692 billion in assets as of December 31, 2025, is the parent company of U.S. Bank National Association.
U.S. Bank is a major issuer of credit cards. The CEO warned that a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, advocated by Trump and the most liberal Democrats like Senator Warren, would negatively impact most of its customers. The CEO Gunjan Kedia claimed that "90-plus % of our clients will see a detrimental impact if there was an across-the-board 10% rate cap on credit cards". US bank stocks fall as investors await credit card rate cap deadline | Reuters Those customers would have their credit lines reduced or denied any credit.
USB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Snapshots of prior sales are in that post. I have not discussed other sell transaction other to briefly mention one in a Comment published on 11/18/16 at SeekingAlpha.
Profit Snapshot: $222.34
Last Discussed: Item # Sold 1 USB at $49.13 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.16)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.J. Added to USB - Bought 1 at $31.65; 1 at $30.63; 1 at $28.7; 1 at $27.95 (5/6/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.52 per share ($2.08 ), last raised from $.50 effective for the 2025 third quarter payment.
USB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/25 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Slide Presentation
I view the report positively but still have a negative reaction to the NIM numbers (2.77%, up from 2.71% in the 2024 4th quarter)
NPA Ratio: .41%
Tangible book value per share: $29.12
USB Realized Gains to Date: $546.01
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
