Dollar Values of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Outflow U.S. Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $1,574.38
Realized Gain Stocks/Stock Funds: $448.74
Inflow U.S. Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $329.05
The discussion of stock and stock fund trades are through 7/8/25. Trades made on 7/9 through 7/15 will be discussed in the next post.
Net Outflow U.S. Stocks/Stock Funds: $1,245.33
Outflow Canadian REIT: C$1,214.
Realized Gain Canadian REIT: +C$304
Inflow Corporate Bonds: $7,000 in principal amount
I have reduced my weekly corporate bond purchases from $10K-$20K based in part on my concern that inflation will start to trend back up, the yields on short term corporate bonds maturing in less than 3 years are unattractive to me, and my already heavy allocation to this bond sector. I am diverting some of the funds that would have been used to buy corporate bonds into treasury bill purchases at auction.
Treasury Bill Purchases at Auction: $20,000 in principal amount
Outflow Treasury Notes: $1,000 par value T Note
Probabilities of FF Cuts on or before the 9/17/25 Meeting:
The odds will be impacted by the CPI reports scheduled for 7/15 (June), 8/12 (July), and 9/11 for August. There will be two more PCE inflation reports prior to this meeting. If inflation is moving higher prior to this meeting and the FED cuts the FF rate, then longer term yields will IMO likely rise.
Remember that the ten year treasury yield went up more than 100 basis points starting in September 2024, when the FED cut by 50 basis points on its ways to a 100 basis point FF rate cut to the current range of 4.25% - 4.5%.
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| 3.63% on 9/16/24 to 4.78% on 1/13/25 |
Federal Reserve Board Monetary Policy Decision on 9/18/24 "In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent."
Most Fed officials see rate cuts coming, but opinions vary widely on how many, minutes show
The Minutes 6/17-18/ Meeting: "In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally agreed that, with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy moderately or modestly restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity. Participants noted that monetary policy would be informed by a wide range of incoming data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. Most participants assessed that some reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate this year would likely be appropriate, noting that upward pressure on inflation from tariffs may be temporary or modest, that medium- and longer-term inflation expectations had remained well anchored, or that some weakening of economic activity and labor market conditions could occur."
Goldman Sachs lifts its S&P 500 forecasts. Strategists say these three investment moves are crucial. - MarketWatch (subscription publication) Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months 11% to 6,900, up from the prior forecast of 6,500.
The declining dollar faces more headwinds after posting worst first-half return in 52 years
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Ask yourself, why does Trump claim that foreign countries pay U.S. tariff taxes when he knows that the U.S. importer pays the taxes to U.S. customs. There is only one answer to that question.
No nation can trust Trump to honor a trade deal that contains major concessions made by the foreign country. Trump violated the terms of the USMCA Trade Agreement that he negotiated and signed in 2020 soon after starting his second term.
In a meeting last Monday, described as somber, EU diplomats noted that the EU countries have not received "any guarantees from the U.S. administration that there wouldn't be further U-turns on tariffs." US offers EU 10 percent tariff deal — with caveats – POLITICO The EU governments know all they need to know about Trump, his honesty and trustworthiness.
Trump tariffs on cars, copper, aluminum could hit hard (7/9/25)
Trump threatens pharmaceutical tariffs of 200% (7/8/25) If Trump carries through with all or most of this threat, I do not see a trade deal with the EU or Japan happening. It may be that he is using this threat as a bargaining chip to secure concessions on other issues.
Trump says he will impose 50% tariff on copper imports (7/8/25); Trump says 50% tariff on copper is coming - YouTube. A modest new home will use about 400 pounds of copper. Other uses include automobiles and appliances. Copper: The Material of Choice for Vehicle Manufacturers - International Copper Association
Copper Tariffs: Which Countries Does the United States Import the Most From? | The Motley Fool Chile and Canada are the largest exporters.
Trump slaps 50% tariff on Brazil over Bolsonaro trial, trade deficit; Trump hits Brazil with 50% tariff, in part due to trial of ally Jair Bolsonaro Trump is trying to coerce Brazil into ending its trial of Bolsonaro for his alleged effort to overthrow the results of an election and to assassinate the current President. Brazil's former president faces coup plot charges-NPR Trump views himself and Bolsonaro as victims of "witch hunts".
Brazil respond to Trump 50% tariff with 'reciprocity' I believe that this is the only possible response.
Korea, Malaysia and Japan have been threatened with 25% tariffs, which are separate from the sector tariffs, unless they reach a trade deal prior to 8/1/25. Tariffs on Japan, Korea, 5 more starting Aug. 1 If those nations respond with retaliatory tariffs, Trump will increase the percentage of U.S. tariffs. Trump also threatened Laos and Myanmar with up to 40% tariffs and South Africa with 30%.
Trump's tariffs deadline is looming for Europe. Here's where things stand (7/4/25)
Trump sends more letters dictating high tariff rates around the world
Investors are still assigning a zero percent chance IMO that Trump will implement the reciprocal tariffs close to those announced on 4/2, having learned his lesson. Since the odds are zero based on current stock market levels, which I am not accepting, there is consequently a zero percent chance assigned by investors to a tit-for-tat trade war with foreign countries raising their tariffs in response to U.S tariff hikes. The odds are not nil.
From lumber to lighting: How Trump’s proposed tariffs could raise homebuilding costs, in charts Based just on the tariffs that are now in effect, this study found "the total cost of building a mid-range single-family home could rise by more than $4,000 — an estimate that industry experts who reviewed the analysis called conservative." The republican tariff taxes that will solely cause this increase in a new home price are not disclosed to the purchaser, unlike a sales tax. There is no receipt showing how much of the price increase is caused by the republican tariff taxes and consequently the surreptitiousness provides fertile ground for Trump and other republicans to claim that none of the tariff taxes are paid by U.S. customers, with Trump even going so far to represent repeatedly that foreign countries pay the republican tariff taxes.
While I am still living in a home that I built in 1982, and will not be buying a new one, the increased costs in building materials resulting from the republican tariff taxes will increase my home insurance premium that is based on the cost to replace what is damaged or destroyed from insured perils (primarily wind/fire). Due to non-tariff inflation earlier this decade, insurance costs for my automobiles, home and umbrella insurance policies went up 70% in the 2 years ending in July 2024. {My video: Impact of Republican Tariff Taxes on New Home Prices and Home Insurance Premiums - YouTube}
Top 1% to Receive $1 Trillion Tax Cut from Trump Megabill Over the Next Decade – ITEP
'Over 30% of the U.S. debt is a result of tax cuts': CIO on Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' - YouTube
House passes One Big Beautiful Bill Act with its many tax changes
How ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Could Change Your Tax Bill -AARP 7/4/25
The CBO estimates that the Republicans will add a currently estimated $3.9 trillion to the nation's debt over the next 10 years with their Big Beautiful Bill ("BBB"). CBO Score Shows Senate OBBBA Adds Over $3.9 Trillion to Debt-2025-06-28 I am going to predict $5 to $6 trillion will be added since the CBO is IMO drastically underestimating the interest rates that the government will have to pay over the next ten years. Interest costs on the nation's debt will soon exceed $1 trillion annually, more than the entire government debt in 1981.
The Republican BBB will give "the top 1% of U.S. households an average tax cut of about $66,000". For the highest income earnings in Wyoming, South Dakota and Texas, the tax cut will be more than $100,000. Trump ‘big beautiful’ bill gives top 1% biggest tax cuts in these states; Trump Megabill Will Give $117 Billion in Tax Cuts to the Top 1% in 2026. How Much In Your State? – ITEP
What Trump’s 'one big beautiful bill' means for your money When reviewing this material, an "above the line deduction" is one that can be claimed regardless of whether the taxpayer is using the standard deduction or is itemizing deductions.
My understanding of an "above the line deduction" under pre-2025 law was the Section 199A deduction for REIT ordinary taxable dividends. For the 2024 tax year, I took the standard deduction and had received REIT taxable dividends. TurboTax, which I use to prepare my tax returns, included those payments in IRS Form 8995 and then reduced the total amount received by 20%, arriving at $645 deduction that was then entered as an addition (line 12) to my standard deduction. A separate form is necessary when doing an above the line deduction.
{I read one summary that claims that the Section 199A deduction for BDC dividends sourced from interest income, contained in the House bill, was stripped out in the final bill as was the House provision that increased the deduction to 23% from 20%. A Big Beautiful Law: Congress Passes Trump’s Tax Reform Package - Seward & Kissel The Section 199A deduction remains at 20%. While I own BDC stocks, the total taxable dividend amount is far less than the REIT ordinary dividends. The amount is so small that I do not not care one way or the other.}
What to know about Republican megabill's $6,000 tax deduction for seniors Under currently law, it is estimated that approximately 66% of seniors are currently exempt from Social Security taxes since their income is below the threshold for taxing those benefits.
For seniors paying taxes on SS benefits, $6,000 can be added to the standard deduction, which suggests to me that this is another above the line deduction, for seniors with adjusted gross income ("AGI") of up to $75,000 for single filers and up to $150,000 for couples filing jointly. That deduction expires as of 12/31/2028.
The deduction is phased out for incomes above that level and eliminated for single taxpayers with an AGI above $175,000 and $250K for couples filing joint returns. How ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Could Change Your Tax Bill- AARP (7/4/25) AGI is the number on line 11 of the 1099.
This deduction will have only a limited benefit for me due to the phase out based on my AGI and my marginal tax rate which I manage to be near 15%. I will still end up paying taxes on my SS benefits. {I am not currently clear on whether there are any adjustments that add back non-taxable income like municipal bond interest. My municipal bond interest income is added back to my AGI to determine my Medicare premiums. How Higher Income Can Affect Medicare Premiums | Charles Schwab}
This deduction does not eliminate taxation on SS benefits as Trump claimed last week. PolitiFact-Trump says 'no tax on Social Security' with reconciliation bill. That's not true for everyone. It does increase the number of seniors who will be exempt from having their SS benefits taxed and will reduce the amount of tax for other seniors whose AGI is below the $175K or $250K thresholds.
Taxes paid on SS benefits is paid into the SS Trust Fund. Reducing those tax payments will move forward the date when SS will be unable to pay 100% of benefits and automatic benefit cuts would consequently happen as mandated by the current law.
With no cut in the SS income tax revenue, the SS Trustees estimated last month that full SS benefits would be payable to 2033. Trustees Report Summary Without additional new funding sources, only 77% of benefits would then be payable sometime in 2033. . Social Security Board of Trustees: Projection for Combined Trust Funds One Year Sooner than Last Year | SSA (see My YT Video published in 8/24: Trump's Proposal to Eliminate Taxes on Social Security Benefit Payments - YouTube) The U.S. government will be in much worse fiscal condition in 2033 than now.
What is happening with Trump’s tariffs? | Four Corners - YouTube; Are Trump's tariffs causing the US to collapse from within? | Four Corners Documentary - YouTube
Big Beautiful Bill: Trump gives oil industry what it wants; hurts solar and wind; You’re running out of time to buy an EV before Trump’s big bill kills the $7,500 tax credit on electric vehicles - MarketWatch (set to expire at the end of September)
Gold’s Strength Is a Challenge to U.S. Financial Dominance, Warns James Grant - YouTube
OPEC+ members agree to larger-than-expected oil production hike in August
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El Salvador Says Trump Administration Controls Migrants in Notorious CECOT Prison - Newsweek; Trump admin 'exposed as liars' after El Salvador makes major admission to United Nations - Alternet.org DOJ attorneys have been representing to the courts in multiple filings and hearings that the U.S. has no control over the migrants sent from the U.S. to El Salvador. This could land one or more attorneys in disciplinary proceedings, particularly any lawyer who made the erroneous claim or caused it to be made by another attorney knowing that it was false or failing to make an effort to discern the accuracy of a representation made to a court.
Another one of Trump's lawyers has been disbarred. Former Trump lawyer Kenneth Chesebro disbarred in New York over 2020 election interference case; All Of Trump's Lawyers Who Have Faced Consequences—As Giuliani Disbarred; Damning New Evidence Against Trump Uncovered in Lawyer’s Secret Notes | The New Republic
Excerpt from Trump's Speech on July 4th referring to Democrats: "They wouldn't vote only because they hate Trump, but I hate them, too, you know. I really do. I hate them. I cannot stand them, because I really believe they hate out country". Trump Kicks Off Celebration of America by Declaring His Hatred for Democrats The sentiments expressed by the Chosen One in that quoted passage are far milder versions of his Christmas and Easter messages where the Messiah spews his poisonous venom without restraint.
Is Trump honest? 74% of republicans believe that he is according to the latest poll that asks that question. Views of Trump post-election: Personal traits, confidence on issues, ideology | Pew Research Center That is down from 81% of republicans who viewed the Chosen One as honest a few years ago. 6/18/20 - -Quinnipiac University Poll (Question 11); False or misleading statements by Donald Trump - Wikipedia; Trump's Brazen New Lie Leads To Instant Fact-Check On Social Media (7/4/25); PolitiFact | Donald Trump;Fact check: Trump falsely claims his highly unpopular big bill is the ‘single most popular bill ever signed’ (7/4/25).
How Trump’s Bill Creates a Super Police Force - YouTube
Newlywed Detained by ICE for 140 Days Says She Was Treated 'Like Cattle' - Newsweek
Woman released from ICE custody after nearly five months - YouTube
On This Fourth of July, Trump Is Deporting Veterans and Their Families
As explained in this article, Trump is running a highly successful extortion racket as the nation's first Mob Boss President. Welcome to the Mafia Presidency - The Atlantic David Frum: "A systematic pattern has emerged: shakedowns of law firms, business corporations and media companies for the enrichment of Trump, his family, and his political allies. Every time targets yield, they create an incentive for Trump to repeat the shakedown on another victim."
My Video: Trump's Ongoing Efforts to Extort U S Major Law Firms in Violation of the Constitution - YouTube
Trump Targets Google After META and X Payouts - The Atlantic
'Truly frightening': MAGA candidate ripped for posting conspiracy theory about Texas floods - Alternet.org A number of republicans believe that climate change and natural disasters in general relating to flooding and hurricanes are caused by cloud seeding. Details about this republican generated conspiracy theory can be found here: Chemtrail conspiracy theory - Wikipedia; Fact check: Debunking weather modification claims | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
What Makes Trump & MAGA So Cruel? A Psychiatrist Explains - YouTube
America's Great Realignment Toward Putin - The Atlantic (subscription publication) This is an article written by Anne Applebaum.
Elon Musk's Grok Is Calling for a New Holocaust - The Atlantic ("The chatbot is also praising Hitler and attacking users with Jewish-sounding names.")
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Small Ball Trading Rules:
Baseball Analogy: Small ball (baseball) - Wikipedia
Primarily a risk reduction trading technique, one of many strategies that I employ to mitigate risks that are assumed when owning risk assets where loss of capital is possible.
(2) Purchases are made in small lots using commission-free trades;
(3) On price pops, I will consider selling my highest cost shares at a profit, no matter how small;
(4) Some positions will be eliminated altogether on price pops when the goal is achieved;
The corollary is to buy the dips, particularly during extreme volatility events that would be associated with major declines in stocks.
Another aspect is selling fractional shares bought with dividends in order to harvest the original dividend amount plus a small profit on the shares. Generally, if I am willing to buy a dividend stock now through a market purchase, I will consider reinvesting the dividend. Conversely, if I am not willing to buy shares, I will likely turn off the dividend reinvestment option.
My Primary Investment Objectives: (1) Preservation of Capital; (2) Income Generation; (3) Realized Capital Gains in risk assets.
Normally, I will try to generate at least $25K in trading profits during each year. I failed to do that last year. I
t will be very difficult to achieve that goal in 2025 due to my very low stock allocation, but I may hit that target with realized gains in mutual fund sales and continued success in short term trading.
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1. Eliminated HR.UN:CA - Sold 100 at C$12.15 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Quote: H&R Real Estate Investment Trust (HR-UN.TO)
Proceeds: C$1,214 after C$1 commission
Website: H&R REIT
The price popped in response to this announcement. H&R REIT Confirms Special Committee Process to Consider Strategic Alternatives (7/4/25)
I discussed this transaction in a comment published on 7/7/25.
Profit Snapshot: C$304
Last Discussed: Item # 1. Bought 100 HR.UN:CA at C$9.09 (7/12/24 Post)
Dividend: Monthly at C$.05 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
Final Q1 2025 News Release.pdf
2. Small Ball Buys:
A. Added to KBWY - Bought 5 at $15.9:
Quote: Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF
Cost: $79.48
This ETF owns the highest yielding equity REITs which amounts to a collection of the riskiest ones IMO.
Sponsor's website: Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF
Top 15 Holdings as of 7/1/25:
Expense Ratio: .35%
Last Discussed: Item # 3.E. Pared KBWY - Sold 10 at $20.54; 17+ at $20.63 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.39). I sold my highest cost lots.
New average cost per share: $16.88 (21+ shares)
With this purchase, I reduced my average cost per share from $17.17.
Dividend: Monthly at a variable rate
Last 12 Dividends through June 2025: $1.528 per share
Yield at AC with $1.528 annual: 9.05%
KBWY Morningstar Page Currently rated 1 star.
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends paid.
I will own many of the stocks owned by this fund.
B. Added to PINE - Bought 3 at $14.69; 10 at $14.55- Fidelity Account:
Quote: Alpine Income Property Trust Inc. (PINE) - A single tenant net leased REIT
Cost: $189.57
Alpine Income Property Trust Announces Second Quarter and YTD Transaction Activity (7/7/25)
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Management: External by a wholly owned subsidiary of CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) who also has a stock position in PINE (15.1% of PINE's outstanding equity). I own CTO as well. PINE has no employees. PINE paid CTO $1.138M in the 2025 first quarter.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.L. Added to PINE - Bought 2 at $15.7 (4/13/25 Post)
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 4.G. Pared PINE - Sold Highest Cost 15 Shares at $18.47 - Fidelity Account (8/26/24 Post); Item # 2.E. Eliminated Duplicate Position in PINE - Sold 11 at $17.11 - Schwab Account (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.07)
PINE 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report (list of properties starts at p. 7)
Property Portfolio — Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.
In addition to owning real estate, this REIT will make loans secured by real estate:
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 at page 16 For the 2025 first quarter, PINE received $2.301M in interest income from those loans. Leasing revenue for owned property was $11.826M.
Average cost per share this account: $15.77 (50+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.285 per share ($1.14 annually), last raised from $.28 per share effective for the 2025 first quarter payment. The penny rate was $.20 in the first quarter of 2020.
PINE Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Due to the price decline which improves the risk/reward and dividend yield for new purchases, I changed my dividend option to reinvestment effective for the 2025 second quarter payment as a random method to average down.
Yield at AC this account: 7.23%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/12/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Investor Presentation
Revenues: $14.206M
GAAP E.P.S. ($.08)
FFO and AFFO per share: $.44
GAAP to AFFO Reconciliation:
Portfolio Information as of 3/31/25:
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Issuer: MPLX L.P (MPLX) - Energy Infrastructure
MPLX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
The general partner is Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) who owns about 64% of the partnership units.
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25 (Net income of $1.1B with distributable cash flow of $1.5B)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost = 5.499%
Current Yield at TC: 5.441%
This is my current stacking of MPLX LP SU bonds in my Fidelity Account:
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| Third Party Prices as of 6/30/25 |
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Issuer: ConocoPhillips (COP)
COP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 5.03%
Current Yield at TC: 5.01%
C. Bought 1 Arizona Public Service 5.5% SU Maturing on 9/1/35 at a Total Cost of 99.594:
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Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Pinnacle West Capital Corp. (PNW)
PNW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
PNW SEC Filed Annual Report The Arizona Public Service results can be found at page 106.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.552%
The current yield is close to that YTM.
Last SU Offering (5/24): Prospectus for $450M 5.7% SU Maturing in 2034
D. Bought 2 Extra Space Storage LP 5.4% SU Maturing on 6/15/35 at a Total Cost of 99.8:
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Issuer: Operating entity of Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) who guarantees the note:
Prospectus (3/25)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 3/31/25
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 5.426%
Current yield at TC: 5.411%
4. Small Ball Sells:
I am now engaged in what I call house cleaning which includes selling shares where I no longer want to acquire more (e.g. MGA), paring a stock fund that has underperformed as of late, and reducing slightly my average cost per share by selling my highest cost lots profitably. The primary purpose is risk reduction.
A. Pared VHCOX - Sold 5 Shares at $87.51:
Quote: Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund;Investor Overview
Proceeds: $437.55
I have been disappointed by the recent performance of this fund.
VHCOX – Performance – Morningstar Morningstar now has a 3 star rating on this fund, which is closed to new investors. Over the past 1, 3 and 5 years, the fund has underperformed its "Large Blend" category. Through 7/3/25, the 1 year total return was 8.3% vs. 13.56% for the that category.
Sponsor's website: VHCOX (closed to new investors)
VHCOX – Portfolio- Morningstar Lists top 10 holdings.
Top 20 Holdings as of 3/31/25:
Profit Snapshot: $235.99 (7/2/25 sale only)
Total Profit for 2025 at $467.53 (10 shares)
Average Cost per share remaining shares: $40.31 (50+ shares)
There was no change in the AC per share since the average tax cost method is used. The AC per share would change only if I bought additional shares which I will not be doing.
Dividend: Annual at a variable rate. I have been taking the dividend in cash for several years.
VHCOX Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Annual Dividend (Paid 12/24): $6.6936 per share. I received $443.1 in cash.
Prior Annual Dividends During Ownership:
Per Share
2023: $1.81
2022: $5.86
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.D. Sold 5 VHCOX at $86.62 (2/10/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $231.54); Item # 1.A. Sold 5 VHCOX at $91.2 (12/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot =$255.04); Item # 1.B. Sold 2 VHCOX at $90.66 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.69); Item # 3.A. Pared VHCOX-Sold $500 at $71.62 and $500 at $73.02 (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $470.23); Item # 4 Sold 24+ VHCOX at $71.16 (1/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $562.11); Item # 6-Sold All VHCOX Shares Bought with Dividends (12/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.86): Item # 2.A. Sold 115+ VHCOX at $57.97 (3/1/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $522.35)
First Purchase: Item # 5 Initiated Position in VHCOX (4/9/13 Post)
B. Pared EXG - Sold Highest Cost 5 Shares at $8.78:
Quote: Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Overview (EXG) - Buy/Write CEF
Proceeds: $43.9
EXG "invests in a diversified portfolio of domestic and foreign common stocks with an emphasis on dividend paying stocks and writes call options on one or more U.S. and foreign indices with respect to a portion of the value of its common stock portfolio to generate current cash flow from the options premium received. The Fund evaluates returns on an after tax basis and seeks to minimize and defer federal income taxes incurred by shareholders in connection with their investment in the Fund."
Investment Category: Monthly Income Generation
Last Discussed: Item # 1.K. Pared EXG in Schwab Account - Sold 15 at $8.5 (2/10/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.99)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.J. Added to EXG - Bought 10 at $7.42; 5 at $7.13 (10/21/23 Post)
Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund - SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 4/30/25
Profit Snapshot: $2.87
New Average cost per share this account: $6.09 (138+ shares)
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| Price Intraday on 7/2/25 |
Dividend: Monthly at $.0657 ($.7884 annually)
Yield at $6.09: 12.96%
Next Ex Dividend: 7/15/25
Data Date of 7/2/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $9.4
Closing Market Price: $8.79
Discount: -6.49%
Average 3 Year Discount: -8.32%
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| IRA Account |
Quote: Iron Mountain Inc (IRM) - A Paper and Digital Storage REIT
Proceeds: $100.80
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Pared IRM -Sold 3 at $109.83 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $257.45)
Iron Mountain - Investor Relations
10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 Long term is listed at page 17 and totaled $14.27+B as of 3/31/25.
2024 vs. 2023:
Revenues:
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| Page 39, Annual Report |
Net Income to Normalized FFO Reconciliation:
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| Page 33, Annual Report |
IRM will also provide a Normalized FFO to AFFO reconciliation.
Profit Snapshot: $77.72
New Average Cost per share: $21.7 (9 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 7/3/25 after pare |
Unrealized gain then at $711.19
Dividend: Quarterly at $.785 per share ($3.14 annually), last raised from $.715 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment.
IRM Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $21.7: 14.47%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/16/25 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
There are far to many adjustments IMO.
E.P.S. To Adjusted E.P.S.:
GAAP E.P.S to FFO and Then to Normalized FFO:
Normalized FFO to AFFO:
Buy Discussions: Item # 2.E. Started IRM in Schwab Taxable Account-Bought 10 at $26.8; 5 at $25.8; 5 at $25.25; 5 at $24.9 (12/5/20 Post); Item # 1.B. Added 3 IRM at $22.99; 2 at $22.31 (6/20/20 Post); Item # 2.F. Added to IRM in Fidelity Taxable-Bought 1 at $26.88; 2 at $26.2; 1 at $25.7; 1 at $25.52; 1 at $24.96 (12/5/20 Post); Item # 2.A. Added 1 IRM at $26.46; 1 at $26.07; 1 at $25; 2 at $23.95; 1 at $23.3; 1 at $23.76; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.61; 1 at $24.33; 1 at $22.6 and 1 at $21.79 (5/2/20 Post)
Some IRM Sell Discussions: Item # 2.F. Pared IRM - Sold 2 at $100 (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $150.29); Item # 1.J. Eliminated IRM in Vanguard Account - Sold 3 at $54.25 (2/13/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $98.68); Item # 4.G. Sold 1 IRM in Fidelity Taxable Account at $55.04 (9/20/22 Post)(profit = $29.61); Item # 3 Eliminated IRM in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 19+ at $57.73 (5/5/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $631.54) Item # 2.H. Pared IRM in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 1 at $47.58 (10/10/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.6); Item #1.A. Sold 3 IRM in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 3 at $49.12 (10/1/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $86.06); Item # 2.K. Pared IRM in Fidelity Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $44.18 Item #2.L. Pared IRM in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 1 at $46.19; and Item # 2.M. Pared IRM in Schwab Taxable-Sold 1 at $46.93 (6/19/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $122.41); Item # 1.K. Sold 5 IRM at $37.69 (4/30/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.42); Item # 1.L. Sold 5 IRM in Schwab Account at $36.42 and Item #1.M. Sold 2.731 in Fidelity Account at $36.86 (4/1/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $73.38); Item #1.B. Sold 2 IRM at $35.63; 5 at $36.8 in Fidelity Taxable (2/27/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $54.15) ; Item # 1.B. Pared IRM-Sold 15 at $33.04 (2/22/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $36.73); Item # 1.C. Sold 10 IRM at $33.91-Used Commission Free Trade (12/26/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.24 ); Item # 4 Sold 50 IRM at $33.82 Update For Equity REIT Basket Strategy As Of 4/6/16 - South Gent | Seeking Alpha (profit snapshot = $398.06)
IRM Realized Gains to Date: $2,160.58
Snapshots of Realized Gains > $100:
D. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in COLB - Sold 15 at $25.55 - Vanguard Account:
Quote: Columbia Banking System Inc. (COLB) - Bank Holding Company
Proceeds: $383.26
COLB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Pared COLB - Sold Highest Cost 10+ Shares in Fidelity Account at (12/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.05)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.J. Added to COLB - Bought 2 at $19.81 (6/3/23 Post); Item # 1.J. Added to COLB - Bought 2 at $19.81 (6/3/23 Post); Item # 2.K. Added 1 COLB at $20.31 (5/27/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $30.91
COLB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 5/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
NIM decreased compared to the 2024 4th quarter but rose 8 basis points Y-O-Y.
NPL Ratio: .47%, up from .38%NPA Ratio: .35%, up from .28%
Charge off ratio: .32%, down from .47%
Deposit Information:
5 Year Chart Through 7/2/25:
The stock was trading went over $50 in March 2021.
Given the dividend yield at my total cost per share, I am simply trying to earn an annual total return of 8% or higher with the dividend providing slightly more than 6.5% based on my average cost per share in two accounts where I still own shares.
Fidelity Account: 30 shares with an average cost per share of $21.2
 |
| Price as of 7/3/Close |
Yield at $21.2: 6.79%
Schwab Account: 25+ shares with the AC per share at $21.38
 |
Yield at $21.38: 6.735%
I am reinvesting the dividend in this account but not in the Fidelity account.
Recent News: Columbia Banking System to Acquire Pacific Premier Bancorp (PPBI). Each PPBI shares will be exchange for .915 COLB. I viewed the price of PPBI to at least be sufficiently attractive after this announcement was made to buy 50 shares. Item # 1.A. Bought 50 PPBI at $20.83 - Schwab Account (5/2/25 Post); Quote: Pacific Premier Bancorp Inc (PPBI)
On 7/1/25, I noted that JPM kept its neutral rating on COLB and lowered its price target to $24 from $26.5. I do not have access to that report.
E. Eliminated MGA - Sold 3 at $41.22:
Quote: Magna International Inc. (MGA)
Proceeds: $123.65
SEC Filings (foreign company forms)
Website: Magna International MGA manufactures auto parts. My concern is that tariffs and higher new car prices will result in lower earnings.
Profit Snapshot: $10.48
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Eliminated MGA - Sold 3 at $46.01 (12/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.67)
I thought that I had eliminated my MGA position but found 3 shares hiding in my Schwab account.
MGA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Dividend: Quarterly at $.485 per share ($1.94 annually), last raised from $.475 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment. There was a 2 for 1 stock split on 3/26/2015.
MGA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 5/16/25 (Owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filing
Adjusted E.P.S. of $.78, down from $1.08
F. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $18.59
Proceeds: $92.93
I sold my highest cost shares.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Management: Internal
Website: Sabra Health Care REIT
Investments in Real Estate as of 3/31/25:
 |
| Dollars in Thousands |
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.L. Added to SBRA - Bought 1 at $11.28 (5/13/23 Post); Item # 4.I. Added to SBRA - Bought 1 at $12.1; 2 at $11.67 (5/5/22 Post)
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Pared SBRA - Sold 10 at $18.42 (6/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.29);
Profit Snapshot: $27.51
New Average cost per share this account: $11.52 ($25+ Shares)
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| Price as of 7/3/25 Close |
The AC per share was reduced from $11.78.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.30 per share
SBRA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at AC of $11.52: 10.417%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post. Item # 3.D. Pared SBRA in Fidelity Account - Sold 6 at $17.73 (6/12/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $35.42, reduced AC per share in that account to $9.89); SEC Filed Supplemental and SEC Filed Press Release
Some Other SBRA Sell Discussions: Item # 1.H. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $17.1 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.04); Item # 3.B. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $19.66 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.47); Item # 2.J. Pared SBRA Again - Sold Highest Cost 7 Shares in Fidelity Account at $19.25 and Item # 2.K. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $19.22 (10/31/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $79.17); Item # 4.F. Pared Duplicate Position in SBRA - Sold 2 at $18.71 - Fidelity Account (10/24/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.77); Item # 4.H. Pared SBRA in Fidelity Account - Sold 15+ at $16.6 (8/9/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $19.24)
SBRA Realized Gains to Date: $303.24
H. Eliminated U - Sold 3 at $25.75 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Unity Software Inc. (U)
Proceeds: $77.25
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy
The LT trades are a form of amusement for the Old Geezer. I quit tracking the results on 10/1/2015. Lottery Ticket Basket Strategy The net gain was then at $14,012.42, but note the number of losses.
I noticed that Bank of America started Unity with an underperform rating and a $15 price target. I do not have access to that report but read this summary of it. BofA Securities downgrades Unity Software stock on monetization concerns- Investing.com (6/26/25)
U Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch (Non-GAAP estimates)
Profit Snapshot: $11.81
Last GAAP Loss Report (Q/E 3/31/25) Item #2.F. Bought 2 U at $22.1, 1 at $21.02 (5/16/25 Post). I discussed this report here: SEC Filed Press Release
I. Pared NTST - Sold 10 at $17.03 - Schwab Account:
Quote: NetSTREIT Corp. (NTST)
Proceeds: $170.3
I sold my highest cost 10 shares.
NTST is an internally managed REIT that owns single tenant commercial properties that are net leased. 10-Q at page 27
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.N. Added to NTST - Bought 10 at $13.9 (1/1/25 Post); Item # 1.D. Added 10 NTST at $14.25 (12/26/24 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $10.3
New average cost per share this account: $14.69 (40 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 7/7/25 after pare |
The AC per share was lowered from $14.95.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share, last raised from $.205 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment.
NTST Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.69 this account: 5.718%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/2/25 (owned 60 in this account as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): I discussed this report in a recent post and have nothing further to add here. Item # 4.D. Sold Highest Cost 10 NTST Shares at $16.8 (6/26/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Investor Presentation
J. Pared STWD - Sold 5 at $20.59:
Quote: Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) - A Complex Hybrid REIT
Proceeds: $102.93
I define a hybrid REIT as one that combines an equity and paper REIT, that is one that owns securities and real estate.
Operating Segments:
 |
| 2024 Annual Report at page 105 |
STWD SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 17 and ends at page 54)
Starwood Property Trust- Investor Relations
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. Profile | Reuters
Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. Pared STWD in Fidelity Account - Sold 4 at $20 (8/29/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $27.88); Item # 3.E. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Position in STWD - Sold 13 at $20.72 - Vanguard Account (8/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $87.37)
Some Buy Discussions: Item # 1.C. Added to STWD in Schwab Account- Bought 1 at $17.56; 1 at $16.59; (4/1/23 Post); Item # 1.H. Added STWD in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 2 STWD at $17.18; 2 at $16.91; 1 at $15.24, 1 at $10.36; 1 at $9.3; 1 at $8.74; 1 at $12.45 ( 4/18/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Added to STWD in Fidelity Taxable Account-Bought 1 at $15.66, 1 at $15.12, 1 at $14.82; 1 at $13.74 (7/25/20 Post); Item # 2.D. Added to STWD in Fidelity Taxable-Bought 1 at $14.29 (12/5/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $29.72 (7/7/25 sale only)
New Average cost per share: $10.53 (10 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 7/7/25 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $11.86.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.48 per share ($1.92 annually)
STWD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
There have been ROC adjustments to the original tax cost basis that reduced my reportable dividend income and increased my taxable profits due to lowering my tax cost basis.
Yield at $10.53 AC per share: 18.23%
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25):
The reports from this company are far too complex.
This table reflects the reconciliation between net income and distributable earnings for the 4 reportable segments:
My main takeaway is that the "distributable" E.P.S. of $.45 is below the quarterly dividend rate of $.48 per share.
STWD Schwab Account Position: 10+ share with an average cost per share at $17.82:
 |
| Price Intraday on 7/8/25 |
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 3.I. Pared STWD - Sold 5.105 at $25.43 (5/14/21 Post) (profit snapshot = $32.18); Item # 1.O. Sold 5 STWD at $25.22 (3/20/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $27.84); Item #1.N. Pared 7 STWD at $23.74 (3/13/21 Post)(profit snapshot = net at $14.56); Items 2.C. Pared STWD in Vanguard taxable-Sold 10 at $20.44 and 2.D. Pared STWD in Fidelity Taxable-Sold 10 at $20.95 (3/6/21 Post); Item # 1.A. Sold 10 STWD at $25.96 (2/16/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = $47.74)
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments
K. Pared FDUS - Sold 2 at $20.9:
Quote: Fidus Investment Corp. - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $41.81
I sold my highest cost shares.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 3.C. Bought Back FDUS in Fidelity Account Bought 20 at $13.7; 5 at $11.99; 5 at $11.5; 5 at $9, 2 at $8.56, 2 at $5.98, 1 at $4.65 (3/28/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $21.73
New average cost per share: $8.95 (18+ shares)
 |
| Remaining Lots/Price as of 7/8/25 Close |
Regular Dividends: Quarterly at $.43 per share ($1.72 annually), last raised from $.41 effective for the 2023 4th quarter payment.
FDUS Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Special Dividends:
Paid so far in 2025: $.36 per share
Paid in 2024: $1.32 per share
Paid in 2023: $1.22 per share
Paid in 2022: $.56 per share
The special dividends are likely to trend down in amount due to the variable rate loans repricing at lower coupons since the FED started to cut the FF rate in September 2024. Those coupons are priced at spreads to short term rates that will decline with each FED rate cut.
Yield at $8.95: 19.22% (regular dividend only)
Yield at $8.95 Adding Last 4 Quarters of Special Dividends: 25.25% ($.54 per share)
Last Ex Dividend: 6/13/25 for $.54 per share regular and special
Net Asset Value per share history:
For a BDC, this is a good history since the net asset value per share has risen since the IPO in 2011.
3/31/25: $19.39
9/30/24: $19.42, 10-Q at p. 3
12/31/23: $19.69 10-K at page 123
6/30/23: $19.13, 10-Q at p. 3
12/31/22 $19.03, 10-K at p. 122
12/31/21: $19.96, " at page 122
6/30/21: $17.57
12/31/20: $16.81
9/30/20: $15.94
12/31/19: $16.85
9/30/19: $16.47 10-Q
12/30/18: $16.47
9/30/18: $16.41
3/30/18 $16.28
12/31/17 $16.05
12/31/16 $15.76
12/31/15 $15.17
12/31/14 $15.16
12/31/13 $15.35
12/21/12 $15.32
IPO at $15 June 2011
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 3/31/25): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share: $.53, adjusted to $.54
The $.01 difference results from adding back an accrued and unpaid incentive fee. I generally ignore that adjustment since the accrued fee may end up being paid.
Net Asset value per share: $19.39
Estimated spillover income per share: $1.36 (available to support future dividend payments) Spillover income is net income that the BDC has received but not yet distributed to shareholders, see BDC equities: Well-positioned for a soft landing | Franklin Templeton)
Debt investment at variable rates were at $740.3M or 72.8% of the total loans with the remainder at fixed rates. 10-Q, at page 60. That is a lower percentage of variable rate loans than in other BDCs.
As of 3/31/25, FDUS "had active investments in
Investments by Category:
 |
| Page 25, 10-Q |
Loans to 4 companies were on non-accrual: FV at $8.987M/Amortized cost at $44.375M
 |
| Page 26, 10-Q |
Dividend Information:
 |
| Page 41, 10-Q |
Company Assessment of Credit Risks:
 |
| Pages 50-51, 10-Q |
Company Assessment on How Changes in Interest Rates Impact NII:
 |
| Pages 60-61,10-Q |
During the quarter, FDUS disposed of two equity positions for a $13.3M gain or $11.5M after tax.
Pre-2019 Trade not discussed:
 |
| 2018 50 Shares $68.44 |
One 8 share trade made on 2/13/25 was not discussed:
 |
| +$97.72 |
A few other small profitable trades were not discussed including those made in RI accounts.
FDUS Realized Gains to Date: $594.27
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments.
See Fitch BDC Report dated 3/28/25, Tight Spreads, Rising Non-Accruals to Further Weaken BDC Earnings
5. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction - All in my Schwab Account:
All 6 month T Bill purchases now transfer the tax recognition of interest income into 2026 when the security is held to maturity.
The Big Beautiful Bill passed by the republicans and signed into law by President Trump lifts the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. Republicans will only threaten to close down the government and/or cause a treasury default by refusing to raises the limit, unless Democrats agree to their policy demands like ending Obamacare, when there is a Democrat President.
A. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 7/7/25 Auction:
10:9:25.png){kind=small}
91 Day Bill
Matures on 10/9/25
Interest: $107.56
Investment Rate: 4.361%
B. Bought 3 Treasury Bills at the 7/7/25 Auction:
%201:8:26%20%20.png){kind=small}
182 Day Bill
Matures on 1/8/26
Interest: $62.87
Investment Rate: 4.293%
C. Bought 1 Treasury Bill at 7/8/25 Auction:
%207:9:26.png){kind=small}
1 Year T Bill
Matures on 7/9/26
Interest: $36.69
Investment Rate: 4.102%
D. Bought 6 Treasury Bills at the 7/9/25 Auction:
%2011:12:25%20.png)
119 Day Bill:
Matures on 11/12/25
Interest: $84.6
Investment Rate: 4.35%
6. Treasury Notes:
Treasury rout grows as tariffs and supply test demand after tax and spending bill - MarketWatch (7/8/25, subscription publication)
I am lightening up on treasury notes when (1) the YTM at my sales price is less than 4%, (2) the maturity is 2029 or later, and (3) the coupon is 4.5% or lower.
In my last post, Item #5, I discussed selling $8,000 par value in T Notes for $8,187.70 realizing a $258.63 gain. All of those notes were bought in the secondary market at discounts to par value and sold at premiums to par value. Purchases were made in December 2024 and January 2025.
I am concerned that inflation will start to move higher later this year and through 2026 that could result in these notes going down in price. This is a slight reduction in my interest risk exposure.
Since I will not be in a financial position where I have to sell these T Notes at a loss, my interest rate risk is the risk of lost opportunity, that is, the funds tied up in T Notes going down in price are not available to buy higher yielding ones unless I sell at a loss. I also may lose the unrealized gain that was harvested by holding onto the notes.
A. Sold 1 Treasury Note 4% Coupon Maturing on 7/31/2030 at 100.1466:
%20.png)
Profit Snapshot: $29.59
Principal Amount: $1,001.47
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
I just published a YT video discussing in part the USD losing value against foreign currencies since Trump's inauguration on 1/20/25. This increases the price of U.S. imports independent of the republican tariff taxes.
ReplyDeleteI also point out that the U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil. Yet our Dear Leader threatens to impose a 50% tariff on exports from Brazil starting on 8/1/25. Brazil is a major exporter of oranges and coffee. Its steel and aluminum exports are already subject to 50% republican tariff taxes.
I am not comfortable with stocks now. I have been trying to avoid lowering my already low allocation to no avail. I have to sell until I reach a comfort level and I am not there yet.
I will simply wait to meaningfully increase my stock allocation when I am comfortable assuming more stock risk which will require a significant decline and the removal of major risks that I see developing.
I think that's the first time I've seen you too uncomfortable with risks to the market to buy stocks.
DeleteDo you have the count of how many days below 20 the VIX has been?
Land: The VIX movement below 20 started on 5/12/25. Since then, there have been 7 closes between 20.14 and 22.29 that are not included in the count but are not high enough to restart the count. The day count currently stands at 35.
DeleteI am not so uncomfortable that I will not buy any stocks, but I am in an ongoing stock allocation reduction mode even though my stock allocation is already extremely low, close to 8% of total assets held in brokerage accounts.
If Trump keeps the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and implements the 50% tariffs on copper, there will be major supply chain disruptions and significant price increases for a large number of products that use those metals.
Many U.S. companies will not be able to pay those tariffs and will go out of business.
I also do not see how any trade deal with Mexico and Canada can be finalized with those tariffs in existence.
It is possible that Trump is using the 50% tariffs on those metals just to secure trade concessions in other areas and would settle for reducing the 50% provided exporters to the U.S. agree to limit supply.
The era of free trade is over for now. Sourcing products from foreign countries that can manufacture products at lower cost has been a major restraint on inflation starting in the 1980s.
Manufacturing those products in the U.S., reshoring production, will remove that restraint and push inflation higher for decades to come.
Trump's objective of reshoring manufacturing is inconsistent with his objective of using tariffs as a major source of federal revenue.
If the reshoring is successful due to extreme levels of tariffs, then tariff revenue will start to fall and would eventually decline below 2024 levels while U.S. product prices are persistently rising above where they would have been without the republican tariff taxes.
This possible future scenario has caused me to sell 2 of the bonds late last week that I recently bought that mature after 2030 which I will discuss in my next post. I may sell more.
I noted last week that the average duration of my bond portfolio in my Fidelity account was 3.159 years, above 3 years for the first time in a very long time. The average yield to maturity is currently at 4.782% which is weighed down by the substantial allocation to lower yielding municipal bonds which I do not intend to sell. So the option to reduce duration is to start selling some of the recent corporate bond purchases where the maturity is later than 2030, starting with those that can be sold at prices in excess of par value.
My other brokers do not provide this kind of information.
"Trump announces 35% tariffs on Canada starting Aug. 1, warns of higher levies if Ottawa retaliates"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/11/trump-announces-35percent-tariffs-on-canada-starting-aug-1.html
The 35% republican tariff tax will be separate from the current 50% taxes on Canadian steel and aluminum exports and the threatened 50% tariff on all copper exports to the U.S. scheduled to be collected on 8/1/25. Canada is a major exporter of all three metals.
The only possible reaction will be for Canada to retaliate. And then Trump will retaliate if he carries through with his threat, more tit-for-tat until trade between the two nations would cease for all practical purposes.
Trump said that investors like his approach to tariffs and that is why the market is hitting new highs. I don't think it has occurred yet to the Stock Jocks that this belief may actually cause Trump to implement all or most of his tariff threats including the 50% sectoral tariffs that will have massive inflationary impacts.
Really interesting observation. A self (un)fulfilling prophecy. It's not normal. But if you take Trump's way of thinking into account, It really could be what happens.
ReplyDeleteWiith tariffs, costs go up because there's less supply chain, and less competition, and because companies pay to receive foreign goods, so those prices go up? Theoretically American goods that have American supply chains that in turn come from American supply chains, wouldn't go up?
Land: Trump made the comment yesterday in an NBC interview:
DeleteTrump: "I think the tariffs have been very well-received. The stock market hit a new high today."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-tariffs-inflation-hasbro-ukraine-patriot-missiles-nato-russia-rcna218125
When asked about a statement made by Hasbro's CEO that toy prices will rise due to the tariffs, Trump made this statement: "I don’t know. I didn’t hear anything about Hasbro. I don’t care about their prices. But if they make their toys here, if they made their toys here, they wouldn’t have a price increase."
Trump is incapable of understanding that making those products in the U.S. would be inflationary compared to buying them from lower cost producers with no tariffs.
An Apple phone made entirely in the U.S. with components sourced from U.S. manufacturers would cost at least $3,500. The cost of assembly would be much higher but a huge price spike would result just from sourcing all of the components from U.S. manufacturers.
https://mashable.com/article/how-much-would-united-states-made-iphone-cost
The U.S. tariff increases the price paid by the U.S. company that imports the product. By inflating the price paid by the importer, the company will try to recoup the increased cost by raising its prices to its customers, just like any other factor that causes input cost inflation.
When the U.S. company raises its price to recoup the republican tariff tax, domestic companies whose operations do not rely on foreign products will raise their prices to make more profit. This has happened in the past.
See, e.g WSJ Channel Video at 1:42
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-eHOSq3oqI
The price spikes resulting from tariffs will also cause supply chain shortages. A 50% tax on steel, aluminum and copper imports will force many companies in the U.S. supply chain to go out of business, eliminate production of products using those metals, or significantly reduce their production, all creating product shortages. Assuming demand remains constant or rises, supply chain disruptions will cause price increases which were a major cause of inflation after the pandemic.
Thanks. Trump put the 50% copper tariff on. I guess he could back out by August 1st. But it looks like the original announcements are going to be implemented.
DeleteThat's very clearly explained. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteI finished writing a new post and went ahead and published it:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/07/adx-aod-bns-cowz-cpb-fsk-fzilx-fzrox.html
I discussed the CPI report released earlier this morning.
My inclination is to do as little as I can force myself to do until I have more information about the tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on 8/1. If he follows through with many of the important ones, including the 50% tariff tax on copper imports, I will simply wait for investors to factor in the new reality into stock and bond prices.
I reach a point in writing a post where I do not want to look at it anymore which results in a failure to proof the post for word omissions, spelling errors, etc. In a day or two, I may proof the post for those kind of errors.