Dollar Values of Trades Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Bought at Auction: $35,000 in principal amount. I will probably buy $10,000 at tomorrow's 17 week T Bill auction.
Outflow Corporate Bonds (no purchases):$11,136.54 in principal amount received ($1,000 par value bonds)
Realized Gains Corporate Bonds: $243.77
All of the corporate bonds were recently purchased at discounts to par value and sold at premiums. The maturity range was 2033-2035, with most maturing in 2034.
Outflow Treasury Note (1): $1,003.37 in principal amount
Realized Gain T Note: $37.28
Outflow Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stock: C$1,129
Realized Gain Canadian Reset Preferred: C$255.5
Net Outflow Balanced CEFs: $408.08 (consisting of $534.12 in proceeds minus $126.04 in a purchase)
Realized Gain Balanced CEF: $100.9
Inflow U.S. Common Stocks: $1,390.93
Outflow U.S. Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $759.65
Net Realized Gain U.S. Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $80.82 (realized gains of $141.62 netted with realized loss of $60.8)
Net Inflow U.S. Common Stocks/Stock Funds: $631.28
Net Inflow Canadian REIT: C$723
Treasury Yield Curve as of 8/22/2025
Real Yield Curve as of 8/22/25:
5 year TIP breakeven inflation rate as of 8/22/25: 2.48%
10 year TIP breakeven inflation rate as of 8/22/25: 2.41%
Valuation Measures:
The Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends
S&P 500 PE Ratio - Shiller PE Ratio | Longtermtrends
S&P 500 Dividend Yield - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: June 2025 - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: June 2025 - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio (P/S Ratio)
M2 Money Supply Growth vs. Inflation - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends
My Video: My Thoughts on the Robust Stock Rally 8/22/25 - YouTube
About a year ago, I published two videos on this subject: S&P 500 Historical P:E Ratios and Net Profit Margins - YouTube and The Buffett Valuation Indicator in the Context of Higher Than Normal Profit Margins for the S&P 500 - YouTube
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Trump says furniture tariffs are coming later this year
Solar executives say Trump attack on renewables will lead to power crunch
Global mail carriers suspend U.S. deliveries
Minutes Fed Meeting 7/29-30/25 "With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants generally expected inflation to increase in the near term. Participants judged that considerable uncertainty remained about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year's increase in tariffs. In terms of timing, many participants noted that it could take some time for the full effects of higher tariffs to be felt in consumer goods and services prices. Participants cited several contributors to this likely lag. These included the stockpiling of inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs; slow pass-through of input cost increases into final goods and services prices; gradual updating of contract prices; maintenance of firm–customer relationships; issues related to tariff collection; and still-ongoing trade negotiations. . . . Several participants, drawing on information provided by business contacts or business surveys, expected that many companies would increasingly have to pass through tariff costs to end-customers over time."
Bowman and Weller, both appointed by Trump during his first term, voted for a rate cut at the July meeting and have little or no concerns about tariffs causing inflation echoing their Dear Leader's opinion.
Discussed at Fed minutes August 2025
Trump expands 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to 407 more products; Trump just put an extra tariff on hundreds of common items, from deodorant to butter knives | CNN Business This will place upward pressure on U.S. inflation. Those new republican taxes on U.S. importers will be collected starting at 12:01 Eastern Time on 8/18/25.
India, Russia vow to deepen trade ties, defying Trump’s tariff threats over oil
A tax-refund surge is coming. How JPMorgan expects it to shift economy and markets. - MarketWatch (subscription publication); The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge | J.P. Morgan Asset Management The IRS has decided that it will not change the tax withholding rules in 2025 to reflect the Big Beautiful Bill's new tax savings. This will lead to higher than expected tax refunds early next year that would have an impact similar to the stimulus checks during the pandemic, potentially contributing to more inflation.
U.S. takes 10% stake in Intel Trump expands control of private sector; U.S. takes 10% stake in Intel, Trump says Trump claims that the U.S. paid nothing for that stake. In the fullness of time, assuming no Orwellian government after Trump, we will learn whether our Dear Leader used threats to accomplish this result.
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Trump Rips Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), Threatens Key Bridge Funding Trump falsely claimed that he gave Maryland a lot of money to fix the Francis Scott Key Bridge destroyed by tanker collision. The funds were approved during the Biden Administration. Trump also threatened to send the military into Baltimore. Trump was become viciously angry after the Maryland Governor simply invited Trump to take a public safety walk.
Trump: "If Wes Moore needs help, like Gavin Newscum did in L.A., I will send in the ‘troops,’ which is being done in nearby DC, and quickly clean up the Crime After only one week, there is NO CRIME AND NO MURDER IN DC! When it is like that in Baltimore, I will proudly’“walk the streets’ with the failing, because of Crime, Governor of Maryland. P.S. Baltimore is ranked the 4th WORST CITY IN THE NATION IN CRIME & MURDER. Stop talking and get to work, Wes. I’ll then see you on the streets!!!" (emphasis added)
Our Dear Leader states in one breath that there is no longer any crime in D.C. and then in the next breath braggs about the number of arrests. I doubt that his brain is even capable of recognizing the inconsistency, a incurable problem shared by millions.
Since Trump introduced the military into D.C., many of the arrests in Trump's statistics were of undocumented immigrants. The last number that I saw was 300.
I would also note that Trump's acolytes in his Administration do not identify how many arrests are being made just by the D.C. Police. News organizations have requested that data which has not yet been provided.
Trump states that the crime statistics in Blue Cities are faked, a word that indicates an intent to deceive. It is not necessary in Trump's America for him to provide any proof to substantiate that reckless claim when making it or at anytime thereafter. This is just one small part of Trump's war on data that is inconsistent with his self-created and false Orwellian reality.
Trump threatens Chris Christie and ABC News after watching critical ‘This Week’ interview Trump has threatened a large number of critics with criminal prosecutions. Pam Bondi and Kash Patel will do what Trump tells them to do.
Hegseth authorizes National Guard troops in D.C. to carry weapons The National Guard had been deployed around tourist destinations. According to multiple reports, those so deployed were just standing around in their military uniforms. Trump crime crackdown deploys troops in Washington's safest sites | Reuters
Pentagon fires intelligence chief after Iran attack assessment It is clear to everyone in the U.S. government that their job security depends, not on acquiring facts for the President, Congress, Cabinet Members, and voters to make informed decisions, but on repeating what Trump declares to be true, even when his statements are known to be false or unsupported by reliable evidence.
Tulsi Gabbard announces plans to cut intelligence staff by half Trump is not going to listen to them anyway. He knows what is true without knowing any of the facts.
Trump says the Smithsonian focuses too much on 'how bad slavery was'
John Bolton home raided by FBI, former Trump advisor probed Bolton has been a persistent critic of our Dear Leader. The weaponization of the DOJ has already begun under the leadership of Pam Bondi acting on behalf of Trump's revenge campaign against critics. The prior weaponization occurred during Nixon's term when John N. Mitchell was the Attorney General. Mitchell was later disbarred after being convicted of multiple felonies committed during his tenure as Nixon's AG.
Trump revoked Bolton's security clearance in January 2025 shortly after starting his second term. Trump explains why he revoked Bolton's security clearance (1/21/25). If Bolton had any classified documents in his possession at that time, he needed to return them.
Trump has repeatedly stated how much he hates electricity production from wind turbines. To allegedly protect national security and the environment, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management issued a stop work order on the Revolution Wind Project off Rhode Island's shore. The project is about 80% complete with 45 of the 65 wind turbines installed. Orsted shares tumble as U.S. halts wind project construction; Wind-farm operator sees its second catastrophic day this month after Trump administration halts 80% completed project - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
Trump's hatred for wind energy production started when some were installed near his golf course in Scotland. Trump’s war on windmills started in Scotland. Now he’s taking it global | Donald Trump; The Trump Administration and Congress’ Attacks on Wind Power Are Killing Thousands of Jobs and Risk Thousands More; Trump calls wind energy a ‘con job’: Here’s what the data actually says about his tirade on turbines; More than 90% of new renewable energy capacity is now cheaper than fossil fuels, study shows
Trump says he has fired Fed governor Lisa Cook, escalating his battle against the central bank
Meet the Trump housing official leading probes into the president’s foes - POLITICO Trump's guy at the Federal Housing Finance Agency is Bill Pulte who is the grandson of William J. Pulte founder of the homebuilder Pulte Group.
Bill Pulte made himself Chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after firing most of their Board members and that gives him access to mortgage records at those agencies. He is using that position to find instances where a Democrat signed a mortgage loan document claiming that the home subject to the mortgage financing was their primary residence when there were at least two properties where that claim was made.
Pulte claims that he is engaged only in an earnest effort to root out mortgage fraud and is not using his position to target Trump's political enemies, even though only Democrats have been publicly identified by him (Cook, Senator Adam Schiff and the N.Y Attorney General Leticia James). While Lisa Cook has denied wrongdoing, she has not het provided information in her defense as far as I can tell, it would be commonplace for people to sign those notes without reading them. The main issues for borrowers is just the mortgage interest rate and the number of points, if any. Bill Pulte's Enemy's List - Credit Slips
The Director of the FBI, Kash Patel, published an enemies list in 2023. The Who’s Who on Kash Patel’s Crazy Enemies List | The New Republic The list is in Patel's 2023 book titled "Government Gangsters". Patel says that enemies list is a mischaracterization.
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1. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Pared AXPRI:CA - Sold 50 of 150 at C$22.6- Interactive Brokers Account:
Quote: AX-PI.TO
Proceeds: C$1,129 after C$1 Commision.
I discuss the common units in Item # 2.A. below. AX-UN.TO I have a very negative opinion about the external managers of this REIT, an opinion first formed about 3 years ago that has been confirmed by subsequent developments.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Added 50 AXPRI at C$16.4; 50 at C$15.8 (11/18/23 Post) I still own those lots.
Profit Snapshot: +C$255.5
I sold this lot: Item # 2.A. Bought 50 AXIPRI: CA at C$17.45 (10/7/23 Post)
This is a fixed-to-floating rate preferred stock. The fixed rate period has expired. The floating rate period just started with a 5 year coupon set at 6.993%.
Par Value: C$25
Current Coupon: 6.993%
Resets: Coupon resets every 5 years at the greater of 6% or a 3.93% spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond. It is unusual to have a fixed-to-floating rate preferred stock providing for a minimum rate during the floating rate period. The existence of the minimum at 6% and the high spread point to investor concerns about credit risk.
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative.
Stopper Clause: Yes, standard
New Average Cost per share: $16.12 (100 shares)
 |
| Snapshot after pare- Closing Price as of 8/19/25 |
By selling my highest cost shares, I reduced my average cost per share from C$16.57.
Yield at C$16.12: 10.845%
Computation using current coupon: (.06993% coupon x. C$25 par value = C$1.74825 annual dividend per share ÷ C$16.12 cost per share = 10.845%)
Last Round Trip: Item # 2.A. Sold 50 AXIPRI at C$25.13 (3/7/20 Post)(profit snapshot = C$104.5)-Item # 3.A. Bought 50 AXPRI at C$23 (12/16/18 Post)
AXPRI Realized Gains to Date: C$360
2. Canadian REITs:
A. Added 100 AX.UN:CA at C$7.22:
Quote: AX-UN.TO - Canadian multi-sector REIT
Cost: C$723 with C$1 commission
Properties by Asset Class with Occupancy Levels and Locations:
Residential:
Last Discussed: Item # 2 Restarted AX.UN:CA - Bought 100 at C$6.78 (8/21/24 Post)
5 Year Chart as of 8/19/25 Intraday: Awful
Website: Artis REIT
Recent News: Artis Real Estate Announces Closing of Sale of 9 U.S. Industrial Properties (8/12/24) I did not agree with this sale.
Average cost per share: C$7.01 (200 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 8/19/25 after add |
Dividend: Monthly at C$.05
Distribution History – Artis REIT
All of the Canadian REITs that I have owned or own now pay monthly dividends.
Canada will withhold a 15% tax.
While dividends paid by corporations into a U.S. citizens retirement account are not taxed by Canada, where income is taxed at the corporate level, dividends paid by pass through entities like REITs are not exempt from Canada's 15% tax. I will not own Canadian REITs in my Roth IRA accounts.
Yield at C$7.01 AC per share: 8.56%
2020 Change in Management: Back in November 2020, the Sandpiper Group managed to replace the existing Board and installed their guy as CEO. The purported expertise of the new leadership would lead to much better share price performance or so it was claimed at the time. Artis shareholders have known only pain after this change in leadership. The share price closed at C$11.36 on 11/29/20. Sandpiper succeeds in ousting Artis REIT CEO, trustees (11/30/20). It is my opinion that Artis shareholders would have been far better off with no management change.
The fees payable to Sandpiper are described at page 61 of the 2024_Annual Report.pdf:
I would describe this REIT's management structure as being both internal and external.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
Report for the Q/E 6/30/25.pdf - Poor IMO
As previously discussed, Canadian REITs do use depreciation, which is precise number, but a more mushy concept of fair value (loss) or gain on investment properties.
Factors impacting comparisons to 2024 second quarter:
The main item was an expected loss of $26M on preferred investments, one of the reasons why the current management is creating problems for this REIT's owners IMO.
As of 6/30/25, Artis owned equity securities with an aggregate "fair value" of C$58.823M, see pages 3 and 26.
Artis also owned preferred investments valued at C$105.697M, down from $139.881M as of 12/31/24, see pages 25-26. The original investment was C$100M in junior preferred units of Acquisition II LP ("IRIS") that paid 18% interest until 3/31/25 which then increased to 24% with IRIS have the option to pay in additional junior preferred units which is what is apparently happening now. Iris was formed to buy out Cominar REIT in 2021 for C$5.7B enterprise value. Canderel-led investor group to acquire Cominar in all-cash transaction | Canderel
Artis claims a net asset value per unit at C$12.98, down from C$13.75 as of 12/31/24, see page 30.
Last Elimination: Item #1 Eliminated AX.UN:CA - Sold 200 Units at C$13.02 (2/24/22 Post)(profit snapshot = C$156.5; I was critical of the new managers who sold industrial properties and bought shares of Canadian REITs that owned office properties.) Artis Real Estate Investment Trust Closes the Sale of GTA Industrial Portfolio (7/16/21); Artis REIT Announces Participation in Investor Group to Acquire Cominar REIT in All-Cash Transaction (10/24/21); ARTIS REIT Announces 10% Ownership, Together with its Joint Actors, in Dream Office REIT (2/14/22). I thought this strategy was boneheaded which caused me to eliminate my position in February 2022. I did not return until late in 2024 with a 100 unit purchase at C$6.78.
Other Sell Discussions for ARESF and AX:UN:CA: ARESF is the USD priced ordinary units that currently trade on the pink sheet exchange.
Item 3.A. Pared Artis REIT: Sold 200 AX-UN.CA at C$12.94 (3/8/17 Post);(profit snapshot = C$96.5);
Item 1 Sold 300 AX-UN:CA at C$15.71 (9/26/2014 Post)(profit snapshot = C$367);
Item # 1 Eliminated ARESF - Sold 280 at US$8.51 (12/25/2020 Post)(profit snapshot = US$77.08); Item # 3.C. Sold 100 ARESF at $10.4-Highest Cost Lot (7/19/17 Post)(profit snapshot = US$22.37); Item # 6.A. Sold 100 ARESF at $10.78(10/11/17 Post)(profit snapshot = US$109.48)
I sold 400 AX.UN:CA units in 2011 for a US$281.27 profit (200 at C$14.09; 200 at C$13.21, see Item # 2 (12/9/11 Post) .
Fidelity converted the CAD profit into USDs, so I am including those 2011 gains with the other ARESF sales below rather than in the AX.UN:CA column below:
Realized Gains AX.UN:CA: +C$620
Realized Gains ARESF: +US$490.2
Maximum Position: I am at my maximum position which is currently 200 units. While the dividend yield is currently attractive (assuming no cut), and the discount to the claimed net asset value per share is a significant positive, assuming it is close to being accurate, I have zero confidence in the external management company and the current CEO.
3. U.S. Small Ball Common Stock Buys:
I am mostly averaging down on dividend paying equity REIT stocks, and restarting some regional bank stock positions previously eliminated at higher prices.
A. Bought 20 GOOD at $13.1 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) - Externally Managed REIT
Cost: $262
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD); Properties- Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)
GOOD SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report Summary of risk factors starts at page 15 and ends at page 29.
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 Owned as of 143 properties with 17M square feet that was 98.7% occupied with a weighted average remaining lease term of 7 years. GOOD is classified as a net lease REIT, see page 26.
GOOD Investor Presentation for Q/E 6/30/25.pdf Industrial properties at 67% based on annualized straight line base rent.
New Average cost per share this account: $13.85 (100 shares)
The average cost per share was reduced from $14.04.
Dividend: Monthly at $.10 per share
GOOD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 8.66%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/20/25 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
Revenues: $39.533M
GAAP E.P.S. $03
FFO per share: $.33
Core FFO per share: $.35
Reconciliation:
A negative is that the the FFO per share numbers are declining. In the 2022 second quarter, core FFO per share was reported at $.39. SEC Filing Q/E 6/30/22
Annual Core FFO per diluted share:
2024 = $1.42 SEC Filing
2023 = $1.47 "
2022 = $1.57 SEC Filing
2021 = $1.57 "
2020 = $1.57 SEC Filing
2018 = $1.59 SEC Filing
I have not dived into why CORE FFO has declined but most of the decline occurred after 2022 and may be attributable to higher interest rates for borrowings at spreads to short term rates. I do recall that this REIT had a lot of variable debt in 2022.
Debt as of 6/30/25 is discussed at pages 17-20. The company still has a lot of variable rate debt but has interest rate swap agreements in place.
Company estimate on how changes in SOFR impact net income:
10-Q at page 43 Net interest expense declines with decreases in the SOFR rate. The SOFR rate will decline after the FED cuts the federal funds rate.
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 1.C. Sold 5 GOOD at $14.77 - Fidelity Account (4/4/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $26.06); Item # 3.O. Pared GOOD - Sold 3 at $16.87 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.74); Item # 2.E. Pared GOOD - Sold 5 at $15.31 A (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.2); Item # 2.B. Eliminated GOOD in my Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 16 at $12.26 (11/25/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $65.77); Item # 3.B. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account - Sold 26+ at $13.33 (7/22/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $128.61); Item # 2.B. Pared GOOD in Fidelity Account - Sold 8 at $16.69 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $14.77); Item # 3.F. Pared GOOD - Sold 2.197 shares at $20.8 and 2.352 shares at $20.84 (6/4/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.77); Item 1.M. Pared GOOD-Sold 12 at $18.72 and 10 at $19.76 (6/20/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $48.17); Item # 1.C. Eliminated GOOD in Schwab Account-Sold 50+ at $20.88 and Item # 1.D. Sold Highest Cost GOOD Share in Fidelity Account at $21.36 (3/3/19 Post)(profit snapshots = $165.33)
GOOD Realized Gains to Date: $442.99
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis.
Owned Equity Preferred Stock: 85 shares
Gladstone Commercial Corp. 6.625% Pfd. Series E Stock (GOODN); Prospectus {dividends paid monthly)
I prefer owning a preferred stock issued by GOOD whose dividend can not be cut, but only deferred after the cash common share dividend is eliminated.
Last discussed at Item # 2.C. Added to GOODN - Bought 10 at $18 (7/22/23 Post) and Item # 1.E. Added to GOODN - Bought 10 at $18.25 (7/8/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to GOODN - Bought 5 at $18.7; 5 at $18.3; 5 at $17.86; 5 at $17.3 (4/29/23 Post)
GOODN taxable accounts: For the both the common and preferred stocks, there has been some ROC adjustments to the original cost numbers.
50 shares in my Schwab account with an average cost per share of $16.65 (yield = 9.95%%)
25 shares in my my Fidelity Account at a $16.51 AC per share (yield at 10.03%)
10 shares in my Vanguard Account with a $15.64 AC per share (yield at 10.59%)
B. Started KW in Fidelity Account - Bought 20 at $8.09 (duplicate position):
Quote: Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc. (KW)
Cost: $161.8
KW is not organized as a REIT. I would categorize it as a hybrid real estate company. "The Company's operations are defined by two business segments; its Consolidated Portfolio and Co-Investment Portfolio. Investment activities in the Consolidated Portfolio primarily involve ownership of multifamily assets. The Co-Investment Portfolio consists of (i) the co-investments in real estate and real estate-related assets, including loans secured by real estate, that the Company has made through its commingled funds and joint ventures that it manages; (ii) fees (including, without limitation, asset management fees, construction management fees, and/or acquisition and disposition fees); and (iii) carried interests."
The accounting is complex.
Company Overview:
Sourced: 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at pages 42-43
KW SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Last Discussed: Item # 1.D. Multiple Small Ball Buys of KW in Schwab Account- Bought 2 at $6.27+; 2 at $6.05+; 3 at $6.3; 5 at $6.76+; 5 at $6.85 (7/15/25 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share, slashed from $.24 effective for the 2024 second quarter payment. The dividend was unsustainable at $.24.
KW Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I will not be reinvesting the dividend in this account. I am reinvesting the dividend in my Schwab account until the share price crosses above $10. The average cost per share in that account is $8.18 influenced negatively by two five share purchases made in November 2023 with a current tax cost basis of of $11.3 and $11.57. Without those purchases, the tax cost basis would be $7.12.
The motive for owning a duplicate will at times include taking the dividend payments in cash in one account and reinvesting it in the other.
Yield at $8.09: 5.93%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I decided to start a duplicate small ball position after reviewing this report.
Revenues: $135.7M
GAAP Net Income: ($6.4M)
GAAP E.P.S. ($.03)
Depreciation and Amortization Non-Cash Expenses: $34.5M
Adjusted Net Income: $34.5M
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.25
Reconciliation:
Gain from Selling Real Estate: $55.1M
Investment Portfolio: The largest real estate sector is apartments.
Assets under Management: Increased 7.5% to $30.1B
Investment Management Fees: $36.4M, up 39% compared to the 2024 second quarter.Analyst Reports: I do not have access to any reports.
Purchase Restriction in this account: 5 or 10 share lots with each lot required to be at the lowest price in the chain, and each purchase must be at least $.20 per share lower than the prior one.
Maximum Position: Total of 200 shares in all taxable accounts
C. Added 5 COLD at $14.8; 5 at $14.5 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Americold Realty Trust Inc. (COLD) - Cold Storage REIT
Cost: $144.48
COLD "is a global leader in temperature-controlled storage, logistics, real estate and value-added services, and is focused on the ownership, operation, acquisition and development of temperature-controlled warehouses." As of 6/30/25, the company "operated
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 1.E. Added 5 COLD at $16.8; 5 at $16.65; 5 at $16.5 (5/30/25 Post) The stock has drifted down some after the last earnings report which was unfavorable.
New average cost per share: $16.5 (45 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92 annually)
COLD Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
I have changed my dividend option to reinvestment effective for the next payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Slide Presentation
CEO comment: "Looking to the second half of the year, we expect the challenging demand environment to continue, with occupancy and throughput levels remaining below typical seasonality trends. As a result of these headwinds, we are adjusting our AFFO/share guidance range to $1.39 - $1.45. We remain focused on controlling what we can control, including lowering costs, improving efficiencies and capturing new business opportunities. Longer term, cold storage remains a mission-critical asset, and we believe that the breadth and magnitude of our network, in combination with our history of operational excellence positions us to maximize growth as industry volumes improve"
Revenues: $650.7M
GAAP E.P.S. $.01
Adjusted FFO per share: $.36, down 5.6%
Reconciliation GAAP to Adjusted FFO:
In Dollars:
Per Share:
D. Added to UMH - Bought 5 at $15.7:
Quote: UMH Properties Inc. (UMH) - A REIT that owns manufactured home communities and sales those homes.
Cost: $78.5
UMH "currently owns and operates 144 manufactured home communities containing approximately 26,800 developed homesites, of which 10,600 contain rental homes, and over 1,000 self-storage units. These communities are located in New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida and Georgia. Included in the 144 communities are two communities in Florida, containing 363 sites, and one community in Pennsylvania, that UMH has an ownership interest in and operates through its joint venture with Nuveen Real Estate."
Property Data:
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Website: UMH Properties | Manufactured Home Sales & Home Communities
Last Discussed: Item # 1.C. Added to UMH - Bought 5 at $16.22 (5/30/25 Post); Item # 2.A. Added to UMH - Bought 5 at $17.05; 5 at $16.7 (5/16/25 Post)(discussed the 2025 first quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Report)
New Average cost per share: $16.71 (35 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.225 per share ($.9 annually), last raised from $.215 effective for the 2025 second quarter payment.
Owned Preferred Stock: Item # 3.C. Restarted UMHPRD - Bought 10 at $21.26 (4/13/25 Post); Prospectus
E. Added to CTO in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $16.9:
Quote: CTO Realty Growth Inc (CTO)
Cost: $84.5
Internally Managed REIT
Businesses described at CTO 10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 10
New Average cost per share this account: $16.67 (35 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday 8/25/25 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.38 per share ($1.52 annually)
CTO Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $16.67: 9.12%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/11/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in my last post: Item # 3.G. Added to CTO in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $16.59 (8/19/25 Post), SEC Filed Press Release
Recent Sell Discussions: Item # 3.B. Pared CTO in Schwab Account - Sold 8 at $20.52 (12/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $15.68); Item # 2.A. Pared CTO in Schwab Account - Sold 13 at $20.37 (12/12/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.89); Item # 3.H. Sold 10 CTO at $19.72 (11/7/24 Post)
Stock Split: 3 for 1 in 2022.
CTO Equity Preferred Stock: I also own the $25 par value equity preferred stock, CTO-PA, that has a 6.375% coupon. My AC per share is $18.89. {Last Discussed: Item #2.C. Added to CTOPRA - Bought 3 at $17.77 (11/11/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Bought 5 CTOPRA at $18.5; 2 at $17.8 (9/30/23 Post)}
F. Started SAFE in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $13.75 (Duplicate Position):
Cost: $68.75
I am starting a duplicate position in this stock at a lower price than my first purchase in my Schwab account. I will then consider adding to the Fidelity account position, but only at lower prices than this first purchase.
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Safehold Inc. SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Dividend: Quarterly at $.177 per share ($.708 annually)
SAFE Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $13.75: 5.15%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in my last post and have nothing further to add here: Item # 3.B. Added to SAFE in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $13.69 (8/19/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Slide Presentation
G. Added to PINE - Bought 3 at $14.54 - Schwab Account:
Quote: Alpine Income Property Trust Inc. (PINE) - A Single Tenant Net Lease REIT
Cost: $43.62
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Externally managed by CTO, see Item # 3.C. above who owns, in the aggregate,
Like CTO, PINE owns real estate and makes commercial loans and investments.
As of 6/30/25, PINE had the following commercial loans and investments:
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 18
PINE 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report List of properties starts at page 7. The identify of the lessee, square footage and the locations are provided here.
Property Portfolio — Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.B. Added to PINE in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $14.35; 5 at $14.48 (7/22/25 Post) The AC in that account is at $14.77. I am reinvesting the dividend. I discussed the 2025 first quarter report in this post: Item # 2.B. Added to PINE in Fidelity Account - Bought 3 at $14.69; 10 at $14.55 (7/9/25 Post); SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Investor Presentation
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 4.E. Pared PINE - Sold Highest Cost 15 Shares at $18.47 (8/29/24 Post)
New Average cost per share this account: $15.53 (60+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.285 per share ($1.14 annually), last raised from $.28 effective for the 2025 first quarter payment. In 2020, the dividend was at $.20.
PINE Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $15.53: 7.34%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/11/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Slide Presentation
CEO comment: "During the first half of 2025, we invested $85.9 million at a weighted average initial cash yield of 9.1% and sold $28.2 million of assets at a weighted average cash yield of 8.4%. Importantly, we believe that these activities have further strengthened our portfolio by reducing Walgreens to our 5th largest tenant and extending our weighted average remaining lease term to 8.9 years, up from 6.6 a year ago."
GAAP E.P.S. ($.12)
AFFO per share: $.44, up from $.43
Reconciliation GAAP to AFFO:
An impairment charge of $2.803M, discussed below, is added back to net income as is the non-cash depreciation expense.
Occupancy at 98.2%
Weighted average lease term: 8.9%
Top 10 Tenants:
Dollar Tree has sold Family Dollar. Dollar Tree Completes Sale of Family Dollar Business to Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management (7/7/25) The data provided by PINE does not separate stores leased to Dollar Tree from those leased to Family Dollar, or how many of stores were combo stores, or how many of stores are part of a master list covering all or most locations, or how a combo store would be treated after the Family Dollar sale. It would take far too much time to research those issues, estimated at a day or so and then I may not be able to find all the necessary information. That is simply not worth the effort given my small exposure to this stock.
I did note a news article that about 1000 of the Dollar Tree/Family Dollar Combo stores will be included in the sale. Dollar Tree announces Family Dollar sale along with more stores
Another problematic tenant is At Home. At Home to close 26 stores under bankruptcy filing. See the list (6/16/25, USA Today), At Home Group Enters Agreement to Facilitate Ownership Transition and Position Business for Long-Term Success One store leased to At Home in Canton, Ohio was sold in the 2025 first quarter. Alpine Income Property Trust Announces First Quarter 2025 seller financed disposition, property is not on the last list for store closures). The 2024 Annual report lists other properties leased to At Home in Concord, N.C. (108,338 square feet) and Turnersville, N.J (89,460 square feet). Neither of those stores are on the list for initial closures identified in the 6/16/25 USA Today article linked above.
Impairment Charges:
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| 10-Q at page 21 |
2025 Outlook: AFFO per share range at $1.74 to $1.77
H. Restarted FFIC - Bought 10 at $12.66:
Quote: Flushing Financial Corp. (FFIC)
Cost: $126.57
I thought the last earnings report was worth a small restart.
FFIC "is the holding company for Flushing Bank®, an FDIC insured, New York State —chartered commercial bank that operates banking offices in Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, and on Long Island" with 29 full service locations.
FFIC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
FFIC SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report ("During December 2024, the Company issued $70.0 million (gross) of common equity in order to complete a restructuring transaction of the balance sheet. The Company sold $444.8 million of securities yielding 1.98%, repositioned the borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York (“FHLB-NY”), and moved $74.0 million of loans to held for sale. In conjunction with these transactions, a swap related to the investment securities was terminated for a gain of $3.0 million and $382.5 million of securities yielding 5.67% were purchased. The net result of these and other transactions was a pre-tax loss of $76.0 million." pages 1-2)
Last Eliminations: Item # 1.J. Eliminated FFIC - Sold 13+ at $16.62 (8/2/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $85.95); Item # 4.C. Eliminated Duplicate Position in FFIC - Sold 10+ at $14.05 (7/29/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.7); Item # 1. Eliminated FFIC in 1 Taxable Account - Sold 5 at $23.4 (2/17/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $58.91)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 1.F. Restarted FFIC-Bought 10 at $12.25; 2 at $10.7; 5 at $10.6; 3 at $10.3; 10 at $10.2 (10/3/2020)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.22 per share ($.88 annually), last raised from $.21 effective for the 2022 first quarter payment. In 2014, the quarterly dividend was at $.15.
Flushing Financial Corporation (FFIC) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $12.66: 6.95%
Next Ex Dividend: 9/5/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): Flushing Financial SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2024 second quarter.
GAAP E.P.S. $.41, up from $.18
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.32, up from $.18
The consensus non-GAAP E.P.S. per Schwab was $.31.
"The primary differences between GAAP and Core earnings were fair value adjustments on debt and the reversal of a valuation allowance upon the reclassification of loans held for sale to loans held for investment." I would go with the non-GAAP E.P.S.
NIM FTE: 2.54%, up from 2.05% (remains low but improving at least in part due to the balance sheet restructuring in December 2024 summarized above)
Efficiency Ratio: 67.69% (too high IMO)
NPA Ratio: .75%, up from .61%
NPL Ratio: .74%, up from .51%
Charge off ratio: .15%, up from (.01%)
Coverage Ratio: 83.76% (allowance for loan losses ton nonperforming loans)
ROE: 8% (below average)
Tangible Book Value per share: $20.89, down from $22.84
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 2 Sold 50 FFIC @ $14.51 (5/2/11 Post); Item # 4 Sold 50 FFIC at $13.53 (10/31/11 Post)(profit snapshot in 10/31/11/ Post at $200.7); Item # 2.H. Pared FFIC-Sold 10 at $14.05 and 5 at $16 (12/19/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $39.96); Item # 1.H. Eliminated FFIC in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 10 at $18.85 (2/6/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $82.28); Item # 1.E. Pared FFIC-Sold 5 at $24.52 (4/9/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $63.93); Item # 1.E. Sold 5 FFIC at $23.4 (2/17/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $58.91)
FFIC Realized Gains to Date: $560.95
I. Added to NMAI - Bought 10 at $12.6 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Nuveen Multi-Asset Income Fund Overview - Leveraged CEF
Cost: $126.04
NMAI is a balanced CEF that own stocks and bonds. I do not like the significant allocation to junk rated bonds, viewing their current yields to be inadequate compensation for the credit risk.
Asset Allocations as of 7/31/25:
Credit Quality:
Last Discussed: Item # 7.A. Added to NMAI - Bought 10 at $11.2 (11/11/23 Post)
Nuveen Multi-Asset Income Fund - SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report (Leverage discussed at page 95, priced at spreads to the Overnight Bank Funding Rate)
SEC Filing - Holdings as of 3/31/25
Nuveen Multi-Asset Income (NMAI) Portfolio | Morningstar (unrated, this page lists the top 25 holdings)
Effective Leverage: 30.2% as of 7/31/25
Sponsor's Website: NMAI - Nuveen Multi-Asset Income Fund | Closed-End Fund | Nuveen
New Average cost per share: $11.64 (30 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 8/22/25 after add |
This last purchase increased my AC per share from $11.17. I will keep my exposure to this CEF low due to the junk bond weighting.
Dividend: Monthly at $.126 per share ($1.512), changed from quarterly dividends at $.4175 effective for June 2025.
Some ROC support for the dividend.
Yield at $11.64: 12.99%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/15/25 (owned 20 as of)
Data Date of 8/22/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.99
Closing Market Price: $12.68
Discount: -9.36%
Average 3 Year Discount: -11.31%
Sourced: NMAI - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
J. Started NWBI in Fidelity Account - Bought 10 at $11.69 (Duplicate Position):
Quote: Northwest Bancshares Inc. (NWBI)
Cost: $116.9
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Item # 3.A. Eliminated NWBI - Sold 20 at $15.05 (11/21/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $76.6)
NWBI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Recent News: Northwest Bancshares, Inc. Completes Acquisition of Penns Woods Bancorp, Inc. (7/28/25)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share
NWBI Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $11.69: 6.84%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/8/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): I discussed this report in a recent post: Item # 1.K. Added to NWBI in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $11.79 (8/5/25 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
K. Restarted BAX - Bought 5 at $24.07:
Quote: Baxter International Inc. (BAX)
Cost: $120.33
BAX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 8/25/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2025 was at $2.46; at $2.71 in 2026; and at $3.01 in 2027. If those estimates turn out to be spot on, then the stock is undervalued in my opinion given the P/E and the projected growth rate in E.P.S. (PEG ratio)
Website: Baxter
BAX 2024 SEC Filed Annual Report
2025 Second Quarter Revenues by Product Category:
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| In Millions |
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket based on extremely poor performance over the past several years which arguably may be nearing an end. One problem was that hurricane Helen took out Baxter's facility in North Carolina that supplied the nation's hospitals with IV fluids. Baxter IV fluids factory knocked out by Hurricane Helene -NPR (10/4/24) It took several months to restore full production. Hurricane Helene Updates | Baxter (5/13/25)
Companies operating in medical supplies and products will be involved in numerous lawsuits. I do not have enough information to even form a guess on possible outcomes. Legal proceedings are described at Note 8 in the annual report, pages 91-93.
Recent News: Baxter completed the sale of its Kidney Care segment on 1/31/25: Baxter Kidney Care is Now Vantive; Baxter Announces Definitive Agreement to Divest Its Vantive Kidney Care Segment to Carlyle For $3.8 Billion | Carlyle (8/13/24) The purchase price was $3.8B in cash subject to certain adjustments that reduced the amount to $3.71B. BAX recognized a pre-tax gain of $191M ($111M net of tax), see 10-Q for the Q/E 3/31/25 at p. 8. In February 2025, Baxter repaid $1B of its term loan, page 12
Recent Adverse Development: Infusion Pump Correction: Baxter Updates Instructions for Use for Novum IQ Large Volume Pump due to Potential for Underinfusion | FDA; Baxter recalls certain Novum pumps over issues tied to 79 injuries, 2 deaths | MedTech Dive;
10 Year Chart: Major Bear Market Pattern starting in 2022 with no signs yet of bottoming after taking out on 7/31/25 the previous lower low price after reporting second quarter earnings.
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| Weekly Data |
Close on 7/30/25: $28.05 with volume at 6.798+M
Close on 8/1/25: $21.76 with volume at 47.02+M
I am only guessing that the stock price is at or near a bottom.
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 In the second quarter, the company repaid a SU note in the principal amount of $600M at maturity, at page 13. The company sold its "BioPharma Solutions (BPS) business and received cash proceeds of $3.96 billion from that transaction." BAX "used substantially all of the after-tax proceeds from this transaction to repay certain of our debt obligations, including $514 million of commercial paper borrowings and $2.28 billion of long-term debt that we repaid during the fourth quarter of 2023, as well as €750 million of senior notes that we repaid during the second quarter of 2024." page 36.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.17 per share ($.68 ), slashed from $.29 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment.
BAX Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $24.07: 2.825%
Next Ex Dividend: 8/29/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
E.P.S. of $.24 from continuing operations
Adjusted E.P.S. $.59
Reconciliation: The largest adjustment is $.23 per share for intangible asset amortization, a noncash expense.
2025 Outlook: Adjusted E.P.S. $2.42-$2.52 with caveats, reduced from the prior guidance of $2.47-$2.55. The low end reflects the impact on the Novum pumps remaining off the market through 2025.
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab Customers)
Argus (8/6/24): Buy but trimmed PT to $32 from $40
Morningstar (7/31/25): 5 stars with a fair value estimate of $47, reduced from $55.
S&P (8/4/25): 2 stars with a 12 month PT of $19 (set out the pessimistic case)
Purchase Restriction: 5 or 10 share lots with each purchase required to be at the lowest price in the chain. I will not require a much lower price to add, maybe somewhere in the 10 to 15 cent range.
Maximum Position: 30 shares possibly expanding to 100 shares with improved results matching or exceeding the current analyst estimates for 2025-2027, which would require taking the stock out of the Lotto category.
Last Sell Discussion: I opted to liquidate a losing position last year simply to stop my losses. The sale discussion was out of time order. Item # 3.E. Eliminated BAX - Sold 20+ at $37.81 (12/26/24 Post, sale made on 9/30/24)(net loss snapshot = $88.6)
Largest Gain: $314.04 (50 shares in 2012)
L. Started TGT at a Placeholder - Bought 1 at $96.43:
Quote: Target Corp. (TGT
Cost: $96.43
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 1/1/25 Number of U.S. retail stores reported at 1,978, page 21.
GAAP E.P.S. Fiscal Years 2022-2024:
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| Page 26 |
TGT Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 8/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2025 was at $8.71; at $9.18 in 2026; at $9.95 in 2027; and at $11.81. IF that trajectory is spot on in the actual numbers, then the stock is currently undervalued IMO.
5 Year Chart: Major Bear Market Trend starting in 2022
This chart reveals a number of ongoing problems. My view in a nutshell is that Target is being squeezed primarily by WalMart and Amazon who offer lower prices on most products. The "ambience" of shopping at Target is not sufficient to offset the purchasing decisions of increasingly price conscious consumers.
A placeholder position is just a reminder, when I scroll through my positions in a brokerage account, that I may want to buy more shares, but only at lower prices. The number of shares will be dependent on how far the price falls and my assessment of the most current earnings report and recent earnings trends.
Dividend: Quarterly at $1.14 per share ($4.56 annually), last raised from $1.12 effective for the 2025 third quarter payment. In the third quarter of 2015, the quarterly dividend was at $.56.
TGT Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $96.43: 4.73%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/13/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 8/2/25): This was Target's second fiscal quarter.
GAAP E.P.S. $2.05, down from $2.57
Net Sales: $25.211B, down from $25.452B
Comparable Sales Information:
Overall, I view this data as warranting caution.
Analyst Reports (available to Schwab customers):
S&P (8/20/25): 4 stars, raised from 3 stars in response to the last earnings report, with a 12 month PT of $117.
Morningstar (8/20/25): 4 stars with an estimate fair value of $123.
M. Bought 25 IBRX at $2.56; 10 at $2.25+:
Quote: ImmunityBio Inc. (IBRX)
Cost: $87.05
Website: Immunotherapy by ImmunityBio - Cancer Vaccine Research
One interesting aspect is that the founder, Patrick Soon-Shiong, has had success in starting and selling drug 2 drug companies and is a multi-billionaire.
Investment Category: Lottery Ticket Basket
I discussed this company in a comment published on 6/12/25:
The company has 1 FDA approved drug, Antiva, that generated $26.421M in 2025 second quarter revenues and $42.93M in the first half.
Antiva is "the first FDA-approved immunotherapy for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer that activates natural killer cells, T cells, and memory T cells for a long-duration response."
This drug is subject to Revenue Interest Payments that is more fully described at pages 41-44 of the last filed 10-Q. This is a complicated subject which can only be understood by reading that summary. These are interest payments made by IBRX to a company that basically loaned $200M to IBRX in December 2023 and another $100M in May 2024 after the FDA approved Antiva in April 2024. Those funds appear to have been entirely or largely used to fund trials and consequently the company is resorting to frequent stock offerings to raise additional capital.
A promissory note to Nant Capital is discussed at pages 45-46 which is an investment vehicle of Soon-Shiong. ImmunityBio Announces $470 Million Equity and Debt Financing From Founder, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong and Nant Entities - ImmunityBio
While necessary to fund ongoing trials, the stock and warrant offerings and the Revenue Interest Payments are major negatives, as is the current debt.
The company has several therapies in Phase 1 or Phase 2 trials. Immunotherapy Clinical Trials Pipeline
Average cost per share: $2.59 (60 shares)
Dividend: None and none expected
Stock and Warrants Offerings: One of the problems for the stock is that the company is selling a lot of stock and warrants at low prices.
Recent examples: Prospectus (7/25); Prospectus (4/25); Prospectus (12/24, stock for promissory notes). This will have to continue unless another source of funding becomes available (e.g. license milestone payments)
Recent News: ImmunityBio Reports Complete Responses in Non-Hodgkin Waldenstrom Lymphoma Patients with Chemotherapy-Free, First-In-Class CD19 CAR-NK Immunotherapy (8/13/25, Phase 1 trial with preliminary results from 2 patients)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25): SEC Filed Press Release
I am not expecting a GAAP reported profit anytime soon, unless the company licenses a compound for a major upfront milestone payment and then that may result in a profit for 1 year.
IBRX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch The 5 analysts providing estimates do currently have an average 2027 E.P.S. estimate of +$.20.
The company reported a GAAP loss of $92.555M. That only amounted to ($.10) per share since there were 888.216M shares outstanding as of 6/30/25 and more now. In the event IBRX becomes successful with one or more new blockbuster drugs, I would anticipate a 1 for 10 reverse split down the road.
Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities: $157.7M with another $80M received in July from a stock offering.
The press release also describes the ongoing problem with the FDA regarding an application for using Antiva to treat "papillary-only non-muscle invasive bladder cancer". The FDA refusal to accept that filing in May caused the stock price to sink to about $2. IBRX believes it has the data to support approval, but the FDA wants a new randomized control trial against chemotherapy. This issue with the FDA remains an unresolved negative.
Maximum Position: 100 shares and will average down in 10 share lots.
4. Small Stock/Stock Fund Sells:
I eliminated 2 duplicate positions in JRI and reduced my primary position to 180+ shares with an average cost per share of $10.1. The primary reason is that the discount to net asset value per share narrowed to less than 1% on 8/15/25. Another reason is that this CEF is highly leveraged, usually near 33%, and owning securities bought with borrowed money that are going down in price only adds to the pain.
A. Pared Primary Position in JRI - Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares at $13.35 - Vanguard Account:
Quote: Nuveen Real Asset Income & Growth Fund Overview - A Leverage Balanced CEF that owns primarily stocks in the REIT, utility, and energy infrastructure sectors and bonds in those sectors. The bond sectors are broader.
Proceeds: $133.5
Sponsor's website: Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund
Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund - SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report. List of Holdings starts at page 59. As of 12/31/25, leverage was at 33.11%, see page 19.
SEC Filing - Holdings as of 3/31/25
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Added to JRI - Bought 10 at $10.85 - Vanguard Account (4/19/24 Post)
Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth (JRI) Portfolio | Morningstar (not rated). Lists top 23 holdings, accessible to non-subscribers.
Profit Snapshot: Net of $1.19 (8/18/25 sale only)
New Average cost per share this account: $10.1 (180+ Shares)
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| Snapshot after pare |
This pare reduced my average cost per share from $10.18
Dividend: Monthly at $.1335 per share $1.602 annually)
The dividend has ROC support.
Yield at $10.1 = 15.86%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/15/25 (owned all as of)
Data Date of 8/18/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.45
Closing Market Price: $13.31
Discount: -1.04%
Discount at $13.35 Price: -.74%
Sourced: JRI - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in JRI - Sold 20 at $13.35:
Proceeds: $266.92
See Item # 4.A above
Profit Snapshot: $71.76
Data Date of 8/15/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $13.49
Closing Market Price: $13.36
Discount: -.96%
Average 3 year discount: -10.38%
Sourced: JRI - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
C. Eliminated Another Duplicate JRI Position - Sold 10 at $13.37:
Proceeds: $133.7
See Item #4.A. Above
Profit Snapshot: $27.95
JRI Realized Gains to Date: $766.42 (includes $19.97 realized gain from selling 9 shares in my Vanguard account in July 2021 that was not discussed in posts)
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividend payments before ROC adjustments to the tax cost basis. The primary goal is to harvest the dividends without losing money on the shares.
D. Pared PLYM in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $22.26+:
Quote: Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc. (PLYM)
Proceeds: $222.65
Management Internal
The stock closed on 8/18/25 at $14.64. The stock soared the next day after an announcement that Sixth Street Partners had made a non-binding acquisition offer of $24.1 per share in cash. Plymouth Industrial REIT Receives Unsolicited, Non-Binding Acquisition Proposal (8/19/25).
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
PLYM SEC Filed 2024 Annual Report
Last Discussed: Item #1.H. Added to PLYM in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $14.45; 5 at $14.35 (8/12/25 Post)(discussed last earnings report, SEC Filed Press Release and SEC Filed Supplemental); Item # 1.J. Added to PLYM in Schwab Account - Bought 1 at $14.75; 2 at $14.4; 5 at $14; 5 at $13.1 (4/13/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $46.65
New Average cost per share this account: $14.67 (20 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 8/19/25 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.24 per share ($.96 annually)
PLYM Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $14.67 this account: 6.54%
Last Ex Dividend: 6/30/25
As previously discussed, Plymouth had formed a Joint Venture with Sixth Street Partners, with PLYM contributing 34 properties in the Chicago MSA. Plymouth Industrial REIT Announces Strategic Partnership with Sixth Street (8/27/24). Plymouth has a 35% ownership interest in that JV.
E. Pared PLYM in Fidelity Account: Sold 10 at $22.11:
See Item #4.D. above:
Proceeds: $221.1
Profit Snapshot: $53.3
New Average cost per share this account: $14.97 (20 shares)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 8/19/25 after pare |
Yield at $14.97: 6.41%
Last Elimination: Item # 2.C. Eliminated PLYM - Sold 20 at $22.68 (9/9/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $212.59); Item # 2.E. Eliminated PLYM in my Vanguard and Schwab Taxable Accounts - Sold 20 at $22.75 (9/10/21 Post)(profit snapshots = $216.98)
PLYM Realized Gains to Date: $621.1 (includes realized gains in Roth IRA accounts and 1 transaction in a taxable account where I profitably sold shares purchased with dividends)
D. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $18.64+:
Quote: Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc. - Owns Primarily Senior Living and Nursing Home Properties.
Proceeds: $93.23
Properties:
10-Q for the Q/E 6/30/25 at page 12
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy
Management: Internal
Website: Sabra Health Care REIT
Last Discussed: Item # 4.F. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $18.59 (7/9/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $27.51)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.L. Added to SBRA - Bought 1 at $11.28 (5/13/23 Post); Item # 4.I. Added to SBRA - Bought 1 at $12.1; 2 at $11.67 (5/5/22 Post)
Profit Snapshot:$30.53
New Average cost per share this account: $11.27 (20+ shares)
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| Snapshot after pare/Closing Price on 8/20 Day after Sale |
SBRA Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $11.27: 10.65%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/15/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
SEC Filed Press Release and Supplemental
Revenues: $181.15M
GAAP E.P.S. = $.27
FFO per share: $.44
Normalized FFO per share: $.37
Normalized AFFO per share: $.38
Reconciliation GAAP to Normalized AFFO:
Of the properties, 286 were subject to triple net leases.
2025 Guidance: Normalized AFFO per share of $1.49-$1.51
Unsecured Debt Ratings:
Recent News Article: Senior living market can't keep up with demand as boomers age (8/19/25)
Other Sell Discussions: Item # 5.A. Pared SBRA - Sold 10 at $18.42 (6/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.29); Item # 3.D. Pared SBRA in Fidelity Account - Sold 6 at $17.73 (6/12/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $35.42, reduced AC per share in that account to $9.89); Item # 1.H. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $17.1 (3/18/25 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.04); Item # 3.B. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $19.66 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $31.47); Item # 2.J. Pared SBRA Again - Sold Highest Cost 7 Shares in Fidelity Account at $19.25 and Item # 2.K. Pared SBRA in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $19.22 (10/31/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $79.17); Item # 4.F. Pared Duplicate Position in SBRA - Sold 2 at $18.71 - Fidelity Account (10/24/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.77); Item # 4.H. Pared SBRA in Fidelity Account - Sold 15+ at $16.6 (8/9/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $19.24)
SBRA Realized Gains to Date: $333.77
E. Eliminated BOTZ - Sold 2 at $34.03:
Recent History this Account:
Quote: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF
Proceeds: $68.07
Last Discussed: Item # 1.I. Restarted BOTZ - Bought 2 at $28.47 (5/9/25 Post)
Last Elimination: Item # 1.G. Eliminated BOTZ - Sold 10 at $33.28 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $30.14)
Sponsor's website: Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ)
Expense Ratio: .68%
BOTZ – Portfolio: Morningstar Lists top 25 holdings, accessible by non-subscribers.
Top 10 Stocks as of 8/21/25:
Profit Snapshot: $11.14
Previous Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Eliminated BOTZ - Sold 9 at $26.53 (5/20/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $15.39); Item # 1.J. Sold 5 BOTZ at $39.02 (10/22/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $74.52)
BOTZ Realized Gains to Date: $131.19 (26 shares)
F. Pared PDM - Sold 20 at $7.75- Highest Cost Lots:
Proceeds: $154.6
Investment Category: Equity REIT Common and Preferred Stock Basket Strategy (contains snapshots of trades that were not discussed here)
With this pare, I am content now in holding the remaining shares and simply wait for a resumption of dividend payments and better operating results, until I form an opinion that those results are not going to occur.
Properties: 29 Office Buildings
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| Dollars and Square Footage in Thousands |
The occupancy rate in the Northern Virginia/Washington market is only 67% and has an economic lease rate of 57%. The economic lease rate excludes the square footage associated with executed but not commenced leases for currently vacant spaces and the square footage associated with tenants receiving rental abatements (after proportional adjustments for tenants receiving only partial rental abatements)."
The property in Northern Virginia with the lowest lease rate is Arlington Gateway which looks like a nice office building.
Last Discussed: Item # 2.J. Eliminated PDM in Schwab Account - Sold 82+ Shares at $7.59 (7/15/25 Post)(profit snapshot = net of $56.65, realized by averaging down at <$7 per share)
Loss Snapshot: -$60.8 (includes loss taken on 6/6/25)
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| Snapshot Intraday on 8/15/25 after pare |
Dividend: Suspended
PDM Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
The quarterly dividend was reduced from $.21 to to $.125 effective for the 2023 third quarter payment and was eliminated after the 2025 first quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 2/21/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 6/30/25):
Revenues: $140.292M
GAAP E.P.S. = ($.14)
NAREIT Defined FFO per share: $.30
Core FFO per share = $.36
AFFO per diluted share: $.13 (I view this number as the relevant one for resumption for a cash dividend payment resumption)
GAAP To AFFO Reconciliation:
I owned 6 of the bonds that needed to be refinanced, issued by PDM operating entity and guaranteed by PDM:
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The coupons were 3.4% and 4.45%. All were bought at discounts to par value and 4 redeemed at par plus accrued and unpaid interest. I sold 2 in the secondary market. The total "profit" was $59.34. I do not currently own any PDM bonds.
Sell Discussions: Item # 4.C. Pared PDM in Fidelity Account - Sold 10 at $10.9 (10/24/24 Post)(Loss Snapshot = -$18.36); Item # 4.A. Pared PDM in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $10.13 (10/3/24 Post)(loss snapshot of -$22.53); Item # 2.B. Eliminated Duplicate Position in PDM - Sold 31 at $8.67 (8/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $45.52); Item # 1.A. Eliminated PDM in Schwab Account - Sold 5 at $18.71 and 34+ at $18 (12/31/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $235.88); Item # 2.H. Eliminated PDM- Sold 10 at $17.95 in Fidelity Account and 10 at $18.02 in Vanguard Taxable Account (1/7/22 Post)(profit snapshots = $128.95)
Realized Losses Not Discussed: -$241.55
PDM Net Realized Gain: +$67.11
3. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 10 at the 8/20/25 Auction - 2 Accounts:
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%2012:23:25%20Fid%20.png)
119 Day Bill
Matures on 12/23/25
Interest: $133.88
Investment Rate: 4.162%
B. Bought 20 Treasury Bills at the 8/21/25 Auction:
56 Day Bill
Matures on 10/21/25
Interest: $131.29
Investment Rate: 4.307%
C. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 8/25/25 Auction:
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182 Day Bills
Mature on 2/26/25
Interest: $98.96
Taxed in 2026 when held to maturity.
Investment Rate: 4.05%
4. Corporate Bonds - Sold 11 at premiums to the $1,000 par values
A. Sold 2 Southwestern Public Service 5.3% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 5/15/35 at 100.568:
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Issuer: Operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)
Proceeds at 100.468 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2009.36
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $31.21
Purchase discussion at Item # 4.G. Bought 2 Southwestern Public Service 5.3% First Mortgage Bonds at a Total Cost of 98.046 (6/12/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot = $48.44
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Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
I still own 2 bonds.
B. Sold 1 Entergy Louisiana 5.35% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 3/15/34 at 102.646:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR).
Proceeds at 102.546 after $1 per bond commission
Principal received: $1,025.46
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $23.03
Profit Snapshot: $26.05
%20+$26.05%20.png)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Bond Prospectus
Credit Ratings: A2/A
C. Sold 2 Prologis LP 5% SU Maturing on 3/15/34 at 100.434:
Issuer: Operating entity for Prologis Inc. (PLD) who does not guarantee the note.
Proceeds at 100.334
Principal Received: $2006.68
Accrued interest received from buyer: $43.33
Discussed at Item # 1.B. Bought 2 Prologis 5% SU Maturing on 3/15/34 at a Total Cost of 98.56 (6/18/25)
Profit Snapshot: $35.48
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
D. Sold 2 PPL Electric 5% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 5/15/33 at 101.769 (slight improvement over the limit price):
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company PPL Corp (PPL)
Proceeds at 101.669
Principal Received: 2,033.38
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $26.67
Discussed at Item # 2.E. Bought 2 PPL Electric 5% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 5/15/33 at a Total Cost of 99.22 (4/18/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $48.98
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A1/A
E. Sold 2 Affiliated Managers 5.5% SU Maturing on 8/20/34 at 101.508:
Issuer: Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG)
Proceeds at 101.408 after $1 per bond commission
Principal Received: $2,028.16
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $.31
The semiannual payment was made on 8/20/24:
Discussed at Item # 1.H. Bought 2 Affiliated Managers 5.5% Maturing on 8/20/34 at a Total Cost of 99.18 (6/18/25 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $44.56
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/BBB+
F. Sold 2 Duke Energy Progress 5.1% First Mortgage Bonds Maturing on 3/15/34 at 101.675 - Vanguard Account:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Principal Received: $2,033.5
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $44.2
Profit Snapshot: $40.26
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Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Aa3/A
5. Treasury Note:
A. Sold 1 T Note 4.125% Coupon Maturing on 11/15/32 at 100.2373 - Vanguard Account:
Profit Snapshot: $37.28
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Principle Received: $1,002.37
Accrued Interest Received from Buyer: $11.1
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
Is this country going to have to have a revolution in 3 & 1/4 years to get a new president?
ReplyDeleteLast I read Lisa Cook hasn't been charged with anything yet so there's no info on what to present to defend herself yet.
During Trump's second term, a rare occurrence has become routine. There is an announcement by some government official that a Democrat disliked by Trump is being investigated for some purported crime.
DeleteNormally, the subjects of a criminal investigation by the FBI/DOJ are not identified by the government until an indictment is publicly filed.
What Trump is doing is causing Cook and many others so identified publicly to incur substantial legal fees even if no charge is ever brought. The intended result is to deter and punish criticism of Trump.
Each person who is publicly subjected to this now routine publicly announced criminal referral has to decide whether to respond publicly or to remain silent when Trump attacks them in this manner. Trump and officials in his government want to try their cases in public before an investigation is underway and prior to any charges being filed by Pam Bondi.
The firing of Lisa Cook will soon be headed toward litigation as Pam Bondi tries to force Cook's removal through a court order. It is up to Ms. Cook to decide whether to respond now or to wait until a lawsuit is filed and then have her attorney's respond. Whenever the response is made, I view it as advisable that the response is made by her attorney after a thorough investigation. One document that is routinely acquired in mortgage originations is a credit report which would show the other mortgages, indicating that the loan officers knew about them when approving the loan.
Good to know.
DeleteIt only took Hitler months to become dictator. We have a long time to wade through.
I published a companion video to this post:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syVB1cPzwmQ
About 1/2 of the video is devoted to a discussion of Trump Media's massive bet on bitcoin.
I have turned off comments to my YouTube videos since I will not waste a second of my time reading the juvenile and asinine comments from Trump supporters.
Oh, That's why all the new legislation about Bitcoin. Insider trading done visibly.
DeleteThe U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit held in a 7 to 4 decision that Trump lacked the legal authority to issue the "retaliatory" tariffs, a result that I predicted.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/trump-trade-tariffs-appeals-court-ieepa.html
I am slightly surprised there were four dissents.
Trump called the decision "highly partisan" without mentioning that the dissent was authored by an Obama appointee and joined by another Obama appointee.
The dissent is not frivolous and involves a disagreement on whether the plaintiffs were entitled to a summary judgement which means that there was no material issue of fact. The dissent argues that there were material factual issues that were in dispute involving the predicate for the tariffs: "unusual and extraordinary threat" to the national security, foreign policy or economy of the U.S. The dissent was not bothered by the statute failing to even mention the word tariffs.
The Court did remand the case back to the District Court to address whether the injunction should apply to parties that were not before the court. The 6 Republican Justices required this kind of limitation in its 2025 ruling on birthright citizenship, where no decision was made on the merits but the remedy granted by the lower courts was limited to the parties before those district courts (Trump v. CASA, 145 Sup.Ct. 2540) . That creates chaos of course.
The remedy for other importers is to file a class action suit in the D.C. federal district court as an alternative which is what is happening now on the birthright citizenship issue.
It looks like the tariffs will continue to be collected pending a Supreme Court resolution. The government will appeal and an injunction prohibiting collection will most likely be stayed by the SC.
My new prediction is that a majority of Justices (at least 5 of the Republicans) will adopt the reasoning of the dissenting opinion which is the weaker legal argument but preserves the status quo and gives Trump what he wants. And the 6 Republican Justices are the foremost advocates of the Imperial Presidency in the U.S. Supreme Court history which makes it likely that they will give Trump what he wants on tariffs without Congress ever voting on the matter.
For me, this legal issue is simple. Since Congress is granted the constitutional power to impose tariffs in Article 1, not the President in Article 2, any delegation of that constitutional duty to the President must use the word tariff and be temporary in scope until and unless approved by Congress within a certain time frame. The law relied on by Trump had that requirement, 15 days, but the republicans in the House and Senate defined a day in that statute to mean an entire year so they would not have to vote on approving the tariffs. That refusal to vote makes them equally responsible with Trump for the tariffs.
So the tariffs stay. But on their revisit in the lower courts, and back up, there is room yet again for them to be overturned as not a presidential power?
ReplyDeleteIf overturned, the US government would have to pay back a whole bunch of tariffs.
And now a day is a year, so either I'm getting old very fast, or I'm getting a lot of time out of each day that I live.
I didn't particularly enjoy Alice and the looking Glass when I read it I feel like I'm living in that world now. (I was a kid, so it felt unpleasant rather than satire a stuff I didn't know about.)
Land: What will probably happen is that the decision finding that Trump lacked the authority to issue the retaliatory tariffs will be appealed to the Supreme Court, rather than the case being remanded now to the District Court to fashion a more limited remedy. The Appellate Court stayed the injunction of the 3 judge panel pending its decision and it will soon be up to the Supreme Court to decide whether to continue that stay, whIch they will do. So the tariffs will continue to be collected until the Supreme Court decides and then it will depend on what they decide. If they affirm the appellate decision, the case would be remanded to the District Court panel to fashion a remedy. If they go with the dissenting opinion, the case would be remanded back to the district court panel for an evidentiary hearing, which would probably mean the tariffs remain in effect for most of Trump's second term. Or they could just decide that Trump had the authority and end the case.
DeleteI would think that countries who have not succumbed to Trump's tariffs by entering into a new and unfavorable to them trade deal will not do so now. Best to just wait and see.
Of course, Trump could have avoided this legal quagmire by simply having the republicans in the House and Senate rubber stamp his tariffs but he knows that many would balk since they would lose their seats in the next election. They prefer to avoid voting on any of them.
Alice in Wonderland. There is a famous song that combines LSD and the Alice in Wonderland tale. It is called White Rabbit:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGYWVYFsXoo
At least the voting population would vote their representatives out If this was being done legitimately.
DeleteI remember that song. I was young enough though that I didn't know it was an LSD theme. Totally makes sense.
The movie Alice in wonderland with Johnny Depp was playing this afternoon. I lasted about a minute. If I wanted to feel anxious and nauseous, I would turn on a news channel.
I published a post earlier today discussing Trump's repeal of the de minimis tariff free shipments of parcels to U.S. customers through the international postal system.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N61ia_Eaf24
The de minimis exemption has been a law in the U.S., passed by Congress who has the constitutional power to impose tariffs, since 1938. The exemption amount has been raised over the decades and was last increased in 2015 to less than $800.
Trump declared a national emergency claiming that illegal drugs were shipped in this manner, without providing any evidence of course, or explain how a tariff on those parcels would prevent the shipments of illicit drugs, assuming that some where had been shipped in that manner.
Trump believes that declaring national emergencies on just about anything allows him to do whatever he wants to do including usurping the powers of Congress contained in Article 1. The 6 Republican Justices are inclined IMO to increase Presidential powers that can only be described as what King George could do in 1776.
There is a 1957 movie called "12 Angry Men" that will be leaving Amazon in 32 hours from now. I recommend viewing it particularly since it has relevance to today. There is a character in the movie play by the fine actor Lee J. Cobb that reminds me of a certain President. Henry Fonda chose the right actor for that role as well as the other ones.
I believe I've seen the movie 12 angry Men at least twice. Excellent movie. The one time I was called to jury duty, I wound up as an alternate. It was disappointing to sit through the trial but not be able to talk about it to the rest of the jurors. I did get to talk to the defendant while waiting for the jury to come in. Seems like a very good chance that he was guilty, but it was clearly not proven in my view. But they found him guilty. I would have been a holdout. I'm going to see if the movie is on tomorrow. I don't remember a character by Lee Cobb similar to what you described. I'm curious.
DeleteThe one thing on the trial that I found confusing was that the defendant looked up and relaxed only when his jail mate friend came into the room to testify against him. Clearly the only person in that room he trusted. But he wasn't angry that his friend had traded his testimony for a lighter unrelated felony sentence. (Either the prosecutor or defense brought up drugs, but it was probably a drug deal got a little bad.)
Land: 12 Angry Men (1957) is a classic. A viewer's attention is engaged for the entire film without any special effects or music. Just superb direction, script, acting and camera work with almost the entire film shot in dingy jury room.
DeleteThe viewer has no idea when deliberations start what evidence was presented during the trial which is only gradually disclosed during the jury's deliberation. You can understand why the vote started out as 11 to 1 in favor of guilt based on the initial presentation of the evidence by the jurors. The defendant's legal representation was revealed as the talking continued to be incompetent.
The movie is not about whether the 18 year old murdered his father but a process where some jurors recognize their prejudices and emotional baggage that they bring to the deliberations and are ultimately convinced after examining the evidence there is reasonable doubt as to guilt, not that the boy is innocent.
I would identify most with Juror #4, played by E.G. Marshall, except for the comment that he made about people raised in slums that was the only clear prejudice that he brought into the deliberations. He was analytical, focused on the facts of the case, unemotional, and willing to change his opinion based on the facts and doubts arising during the discussions, finally changing his vote when the eyesight of the only eyewitness was cast in reasonable doubt.
There was strong evidence that he boy was guilty. The alibi was not good and not sufficient to create a reasonable doubt; he did purchase a switchblade knife after his father hit him during an argument earlier in the evening; the knife was unique and identified as the one he showed his friends earlier in the evening; and his claim that the knife fell through a hole in his pants was possible but not something that would trigger a reasonable doubt.
The non-guilty vote using the reasonable doubt standard hinged primarily on questions about the woman's eyesight who witnessed the murder; a reasonable doubt that the old man in the apartment below heard the boy yell out "I am going to kill you" and then a reasonable doubt that given his slow gait due to a stroke that he could have made it to the door to see the boy running down the stairs.
The secondary doubts were raised about the uniqueness of the knife and whether the boy could have stabbed his much taller father in the wrong manner for using the blade. Those would not have been sufficient by themselves to create a reasonable doubt IMO.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2025/09/avk-bnl-calf-codipra-exg-lxp-ntst-ocsl.html
It is interesting how what looks like a solid case, can have holes poked in every one of the pieces of evidence. Enough to make reasonable doubt sound reasonable when you put it all together.
ReplyDeleteI've never heard analysis of what reasonable doubt means beyond very superficial descriptions. So much hinges on that term.
The trial I sat in was a pistol whipping supposedly by the defendant on the victim / witness. The victim had gone to their car in the parking lot and pulled out $800 in an envelope. Walked back to the porch to their apartment building. They are two men accosted him, one pistol whipping and took the $800. The victim declared that he never met the defendant before and vice versa the defend hadn't met the victim before.
The witness and defendant were both Black, so I didn't consider racism significant to look for.
The witness went to the hospital, and there turned out to have a blood alcohol level well over drunk driving rates from drinking some cold remedy from Jamaica. Regardless of what was in the remedy and its purpose, he was drunk.
He testified that he recognized the pistol whipper from his window 50 ft above basketball court. Where the defendant was playing basketball wearing a shirt with the same diamond pattern around the bottom as the guy who pistol whipped him.
I found that very hard to believe that he could identify the same person that he'd never met before by a small part of the shirt's design on from 50 ft away 2 days later.
Also, how did the pistol whipper know that this guy had taken an envelope of money out of his car, that they could steal?
No one talked about drugs, but what made more sense is that they had a drug deal. He went to get money out of the car, and instead of getting drugs, he got pistol whipped.
A policeman testified pretty much about the arrest. And which both he and the defendant cursed at each other . The point seem to be that the policemen had been out to get this guy, and was glad that he could finally arrest him. I didn't like the policeman. All my little red flags of dangerous person went up with him. But it wasn't relevant to anything. The points seem to be to tell us that this was a bad guy flagged by the police, and they were glad to finally have caught him on something.
Grandmother testified that defendant was home with her at the time watching TV. That was not a strong alibi.
The defendant was not a good listener. The prosecutor and defense had to repeat questions multiple times because he would answer what wasn't asked and not answer what was asked. That was with almost everything asked. To me that says that he is not very exacting. Which added to my doubt about how exacting he was on his identification.
After the trial talking to him, I learned that his girlfriend who is sitting on the couch with him waiting, was 7 months pregnant. He really wanted to be there for her and the child.
The story as told by the prosecutor, left room for reasonable doubt. Did he really accurately identify someone he'd never seen before when he had been drunk, based on a design on clothes? Supposedly about an inch up from the bottom of the shirt was this light colored tan and blue diamond design that was an inch or two wide.
The one piece of evidence that I couldn't shake was that the defendant was clearly comfortable with his friend with felon who testified that the defendant had said that he did the job. He said they were friends. He was lightning his sentence substantially for this testimony. I could see somebody lying for the deal he got. But the defendant looked up comfortable with him, and it was the only person in the room and the only time that he looked comfortable or happy at somebody. If the felon was lying, I would think he wouldn't have been looking relieved and relaxed and even making eye contact with him.
ReplyDeleteSo it seemed very likely that defendant was guilty. If he wasn't guilty of this, he was guilty of something else. But there's also is reasonable doubt. If they had presented the case using the drug deal that probably happened, it would have been more ironclad.
The gun used was never presented.
I can't remember if the defendant testified. I don't think so.
I was very frustrated with legal system. There is no way to ask questions. I wanted note cards to give the judge to decide whether the question was appropriate. I would have asked how they knew there was something to pistol whip for to steal? Had a few other questions that I don't remember now.
.
He was found guilty with mandatory 5 year sentence. 5 years later I got a call from an immigration attorney asking if I could think of anything from the trial that would preclude the witness from being deported back to one of the Caribbean islands, because he was now a convicted felon. I didn't have any relevant facts to offer the the attorney didn't know.
I think I'd seen the 1957 version before. This is the first time I saw the newer one. I want to go back and watch that older one. It must be frustrating as a juror to be in a room with people with an important decision to make, who exhibit some of the traits in the movie. Such as the prejudices and quick dismissal of facts rather than looking through them carefully.