Since I use the label section to find prior trade discussions, which will be in chronological order, and Google does not permit more than 20 symbols per post, I will cut off my discussion when I hit 20 symbols. I am consequently about a week behind in discussing my trades.
The St. Louis Fed recently changed the links to its charts. All of my prior links will simply take you to the main page for this reserve bank. I am having to start over with my links. FINRA did the same thing about a year ago.
++
Economy:
Retail sales in October rose .4% and the September was revised up from +.4% to .8%. Retail trade sales were up 2.6% over the 12 months ending in October while non-store retailers increased their sales by 7% Retail Sales.pdf
E-Commerce Retail Sales-St. Louis Fed
2024 3rd Quarter Household Debt Rose Modestly; Delinquency Rates Remain Elevated - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK "The report shows total household debt increased by $147 billion (0.8%) in Q3 2024, to $17.94 trillion. . . Although household balances continue to rise in nominal terms, growth in income has outpaced debt . . . Credit card balances increased by $24 billion to $1.17 trillion. Auto loan balances saw a $18 billion increase and stood at $1.64 trillion. . . . Aggregate delinquency rates edged up from the previous quarter, with 3.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency."
Greenlight Capital's Einhorn again argues that markets are 'broken'
Larry Summers issues warning on Trump’s proposed economic policies - YouTube
Assessing the potential economic impact of Trump's tariff proposals - YouTube
A double supply chain whammy is coming for U.S. economy in early 2025
The odds of a FED rate cut at the December meeting is currently a coin flip:
TIP Breakeven Inflation Rates as of 11/20/24:
5 Year: 2.3%
10 Year: 2.22%
20 Year: 2.36%
+++
Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $20,000 in principal amount
Corporate Bonds: $22,000 in principal amount
Treasury Notes Purchased in Secondary Market: $1,000 in principal amount
Outflow U.S. Common Stocks: -$2,552.3 (realized gain = +$725.41)
(consisting of $2,894.5 in proceeds minus $342.2 in purchases)
Outflow Canadian Stock: -C$1,409.5, converted soldy for allocation purposes to US$1,000 using a .71 CAD/USD (realized gain = +C$330.5)
Outflow Stock Funds: -$1,311.62 (realized gain = +$215.67, with a total return much higher given dividends and capital gains distributions)
Net Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$4,863.92.
Outflow Equity Preferred Stocks = -$2,106.97 (realized gain = +$334.8)
Net 2024 Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$63,804.19 (discussed in posts, with the net outflow total being several thousand dollars higher with trades that have not been discussed)
+++++
1. Eliminated TA:CA - Sold 100 at C$14.105 (C$1 IB Commission):
Quote: TransAlta Corporation (TA.TO) - TAC owns alternative energy generation facilities.
Proceeds: C$1,409.5
The stock also trades in the U.S., priced in USDs, under the TAC symbol. Transalta Corp. (TAC)
Website: TransAlta - A Clean Energy Solutions Company
Projects in Development - TransAlta
TAC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
TAC SEC Filings (foreign issuer forms)
Last Discussed: Item # 1. Bought 100 TA:CA at C$10.78 (11/11/23 Post)
This was my response to the last earnings report. I had a slightly negative reaction which can result in an elimination when I have a profit and there is limited or no dividend support.
Profit Snapshot: C$330.5
In Canadian Dollars |
At C$14.1 and using the annual dividend of C$.24, the yield is 1.7%, viewed by me as immaterial dividend support.
The Alberta generation portfolio is facing headwinds. Due to an energy surplus in that region, TransAlta has elected to mothball its gas fired generation facility known as Sundance Unit 6 for two years starting on 4/1/25 depending on market conditions. That has a 401MW maximum output which is significant.
Current Stock Position: None
Reset Equity Preferred Stock Position: I own 100 shares of the reset equity preferred stock that trades in Canada: TA-PH.TO That one reset its coupon for five years at 6.894%, paid on a C$25 par value, in September 2022. The reset coupon is based on a 3.65% spread to the then existing 5 year Canadian bond yield on the reset date. Item # 1 Bought 50 TAPRH at C$16.85 and 50 at C$16.19 (7/17/2019 Post) This last reset raised my dividend yield to 10.42%. The preferred stock can not be called until the next reset date.
Consider to Repurchase Price - Common Stock: I do not have a consider to repurchase price, but I will start to pay attention when and if I see a price below C$12.
Transalta Renewables (acquired by Transalta): I have realized so far a larger total gain with TransAlta Renewables, formerly traded under the RNW:CA. symbol in Toronto and the USD price Grey Market shares under the symbol TRSWF. Item # 1. Eliminated RNW:CA - Sold 150 at C$13.01 (7/15/23 Post)(profit snapshot = C$226); Item # 1. Sold 100 RNW:CA at C$16.98 (1/13/22 Post)(profit snapshot = C$588.5); Item # 1 Eliminated TRSWF in Schwab Account-Sold 100 at US$14.94 (11/26/21 Post)(profit snapshot = US$505.31.) My primary interest in that stock was its dividend yield and monthly dividend payments. TransAlta acquired the minority stake in RNW owned by the public for a favorable price to it. I eliminated my remaining Transalta Renewables shares before the acquisition was completed and then started a TAC and TA:CA positions after a significant price decline which I viewed as unrelated to the Transalta Renewable assets.
2. Corporate Bonds:
I am discussing below only trades made through last Friday.
A. Bought 2 Lowes 4.4% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/8/25 at a Total Cost of 99.824:
Issuer: Lowe's (LOW)
LOW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 8/2/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.614%
Current Yield: 4.408%
I now own 4 bonds.
B. Bought 2 Williams Partners 4% SU Maturing on 9/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.371 (IB Account):
Issuer: Williams Cos. (WMB)
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.7675%
Current Yield at TC = 4.024%
I now own 4 bonds.
C. Bought 1 Prudential Financial 4.45% SU Maturing on 11/15/27 at par value - Fidelity Corporate Notes Program:
Issuer: Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU)
PRU Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I have eliminated my PRU common stock position.
PRU SEC Filed Earnings Press for the Q/E 9/30/24
This bond is non-callable.
Credit Ratings: A3/A
Prudential Financial, Inc. - Financials - Ratings
Current Yield and YTM at 4.45%
This is my first bond purchase with a maturity in November 2027.
I have $108,000 of treasury bills and bonds maturing in December 2024.
D. Bought 2 Essex LP 3.375% SU Maturing on 4/15/26 at a Total Cost of 98.025:
Issuer: Operating entity for the Apartment REIT who guarantees the notes:
ESS SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
I now own 4 bonds with the other two owned in a RI account.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.829%
Current Yield at TC = 3.443%
I own 6 Essex LP 3.5% SU notes that mature on 4/1/25 and own 2 Essex LP 4% SU notes that mature on 3/1/2029.
Last Bond Offering (8/24): Prospectus for $200M in 5.5% SU notes maturing in 2034
E. Bought 2 Avangrid 3.2% SU Maturing on 4/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.379:
I now own 8 bonds.
Issuer: Avangrid Inc. - A Utility Holding Company
AGR Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I have eliminated my common stock position. Item # 2.I. Eliminated AGR - Sold 15+ at $36.22 (3/8/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $77.22). I noted in that post that the Spanish company, who owns about 81.6% of the common shares, offered to acquire the remaining shares for $34.5. SEC Filed Press Release (3/7/24) Apparently, the offer was later increased to €35,75 per share. Avangrid shareholders approve Iberdrola's takeover of the company - Iberdrola Based on that press release, it is my understanding that Avangrid will be a wholly owned company with the Iberdrola group. The acquisition may consequently have no impact on the AGR SU bonds credit ratings.
This purchase is primarily a kind of income shift into the following year. There will be only 1 more interest payment and that will occur in April 2025 when I will also realize a $12.42 "profit". I will also lower my 2024 dividend income paid by my Fidelity Government MM fund since those funds were used to fund the purchase.
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.698%
The current yield is irrelevant since only 1 more semiannual payment will be made.
Iberdrola senior unsecured debt is rated at Baa1/BBB+
Fitch Affirms Iberdrola at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
I own 2 Avangrid 3.15% SU notes that mature on 12/1/24.
F. Bought 2 Spectra Energy LP 3.375% SU Maturing on 10/15/26 at a Total Cost of 97.531:
Issuer: Spectra Energy was acquired by Enbridge Inc. (ENB), and its vintage SU bonds that are still outstanding have the same credit ratings as ENB SU bonds. Enbridge Inc. and Spectra Energy Partners, LP Complete Merger (12/17/18)
I own ENB in several of my brokerage accounts.
ENB SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page:Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.736%
Current Yield at TC: 3.46%
G. Bought 2 Johnson Controls 3.9% SU Maturing on 2/14/26 at a Total Cost of 98.995:
Issuer: Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)
JCI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost = 4.735%
Current Yield at TC: 3.94%
H. Bought 2 NNN REIT 4% SU Maturing on 11/15/25 at a Total Cost of 99.163:
Issuer: NNN REIT Inc. (NNN) - A Retail Net Lease REITI now own 10 including 4 in a Roth IRA account.
SEC Filed Earnings Report for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.868%
I. Bought 2 Realty Income 4.125% SU Maturing on 10/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.225:
Issuer: Realty Income Corp. (O)
I have a small ball position in the common stock that I have been reducing, but have stopped doing so after the recent price decline
Last Discussed: Item # 2.I - Sold 5 O at $63 (9/12/24 Post)
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A3/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.55%
Current Yield at TC: 4.1572%
J. Bought 1 Black Hills 3.95% SU Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.194:
Issuer: Black Hills Corp. (BKH) - Utility Holding Company
I now own 9 bonds. All were 1 bond purchases.
SEC Fiiled Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.663%
Current Yield at TC: 3.98%
K. Bought 2 Stanley Black & Decker 3.4% SU Maturing on 3/1/26 at a Total Cost of 98.225:
Issuer: Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK)
SWK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Fiscal Q/E 9/28/24
10-Q for the Q/E 9/28/24 List of SU debt can be found at page 12.
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/A-
Normally, there is not that much difference between Moody's and S&P. I did note that S&P has a negative outlook which may result in at least a 1 notch downgrade.
Fitch has a BBB+ rating on the SU debt with a negative outlook. Fitch Affirms Stanley Black & Decker's IDR at 'BBB+'; Outlook Remains Negative (2/5/24)
YTM at Total Cost: 4.836%
Current Yield at TC: 3.46%
Last Bond Offering (3/23): Prospectus
2023 Treasury Yield curve: Resource Center | U.S. Department of the Treasury
L. Bought 2 Quest Diagnostics 3.35% SU Maturing on 6/1/26 at a Total Cost of 98.083:
Issuer: Quest Diagnostics Inc. (DGX)
DGX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
DGX SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.758%
Current Yield at TC = 3.39%
I own 4 DGX SU bonds that mature on 3/30/25.3. Regional Banks Small Ball Sells:
Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter.
A. Eliminated NWBI -Sold 20 at $15.05:
Quote: Northwest Bancshares Inc. (NWBI)
Proceeds: $301.09
"Headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, Northwest Bancshares, Inc. is the bank holding company of Northwest Bank. . . As of September 30, 2024, Northwest operated 130 full-service financial centers and eleven free standing drive-up facilities in Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio and Indiana."
NWBI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 11/15/24, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2024 was $1.02, increasing by just 1 cent in 2025.
Profit Snapshot: +$76.76
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Bought 5 NWBI at $9.95 (9/30/23 Post); Item # 2.G. Added to NWBI - Bought 2 at $11.2; 3 at $10.75 (5/6/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share, last raised from $.19 effective for the 2021 second quarter payment. The rate was at $.13 in 2014.
NWBI Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 11/8/24 (owned as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
E.P.S. $.26, down from $.31
NIM 3.3%, up from 3.23%
Efficiency Ratio: 65.24, up from 62.31% (both numbers and the trend higher are unfavorable IMO)
NPL Ratio: .69%, up from .68%
Coverage Ratio: 161.56% (established allowance for credit losses to nonperforming loans)
Charge Off Ratio: .18%, up from .13%
Tangible Book Value per share: $9.47, up from $8.74
Consider to repurchase: <$12.
My consider to repurchase prices assumes that no intervening event has occurred that would cause me to lower my consider to repurchase price (e.g. a recession)
For a regional bank stock, other considerations for lowering the price would be continued year-over-year declines in earnings, significant increases in the NPL and Charge Off ratios, and unfavorable trends in NIM.
B. Pared COLB Sold 12+ at $31.73 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Columbia Banking System Inc. (COLB)
Proceeds: $403.43
COLB "is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington and is the parent company of Umpqua Bank, an award-winning western U.S. regional bank based in Lake Oswego, Oregon. Umpqua Bank is the largest bank headquartered in the Northwest and one of the largest banks headquartered in the West with locations in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington." The operating bank has about 300 offices. (see page 3 SEC Filed Slide Presentation)
I am selling my highest cost shares using the specific identification cost method rather than FIFO.
COLB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: +$24.5
New AC per share this account: $22.86 (47+ Shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 11/11/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually)
COLB Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $22.86: 6.3%
Last Ex Dividend: 8/23/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed this earnings report in a recent post: Item # 2.D. Pared COLB in Fidelity Account - Sold Highest Cost 10 Shares at $28.2 (10/31/24 Post), SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
F. Eliminated FHB - Sold 20 at $27.85:
Quote: First Hawaiian Inc. (FHB)
Proceeds: $556.78
FHB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I discussed the last earnings report here: Item # 3.F. (11/7/2024 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Profit Snapshot: $268.74
Dividend: Quarterly at $.26 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 11/18/24
FHB Realized Gains to Date: $1,146.65
Current Position: None
G. Eliminated UBFO - Sold 25 at $9.25:
Quote: United Security Bancshares (UBFO)
Proceeds: $231.24
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.C. Added 10 UBFO at $5.92 (4/22/23 Post); Item # 1.J. Added 5 UBFO at $6.17 (4/6/23 Post); Item # 1.D. Started UBFO - Bought 10 at $6.29 (4/1/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.12 per share
Last Ex Date: 10/7/24
Profit Snapshot: $78.31
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed the last earnings report in this post: ; Item # 4.H. Eliminated Duplicate Position in UBFO - Sold 10 at $9.05 (. Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
H. Eliminated FIBK - Sold 10 at $33.9:
Quote: First Interstate Bancsystem (FIBK)
Proceeds: $338.99
FIBK is a bank holding company, headquartered in Billings, Montana whose operating bank is known as First Interstate Bank which has branches "across Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming."
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.A. Bought 5 FIBK at $24.13; 5 at $23.7 (11/11/23 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.C. Sold 51+ FIBK at $19.33 (3/25/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $175.18)
Profit Snapshot: +$99.45
Dividend: Quarterly at $.47 per share, last raised from $.41 effective for the 2022 4th quarter payment.
Last Ex Dividend: 11/4/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. = $.54, down from $.70
NIM: 3.01%, down from 3.05%
NPL Ratio: .96%, up from .45%
Charge off ratio: .6%, up from .02%
That is all I need to know.
I. Eliminated FNLC - Sold 10 at $29.56:
Quote: First Bancorp Inc. (FNLC)
Proceeds: $295.59
FNLC is a bank holding company that is the parent of First National Bank which offers a full range of banking services at 18 locations in Maine.
Last Discussed: Item # 3.E. Eliminated Duplicate Position in FNLC - Sold 10 at $24.75 (2/2/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $49.5)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.P. Added to FNLC - Bought 5 at $19.4(9/26/2020 Post); Item # 1.I. Restarted FNLC-Bought 5 at $20.2 (9/19/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $95.06
Diluted E.P.S. $.679, up from $.674 (at least it was up)
NIM: 2.32%, down from 2.4%
Efficiency Ratio: 56.37%, up from 53.9%
NPL Ratio: .11%, down from .12%
NPA Ratio: .08%, down from .09%
Tangible Book Value per share: $20.27, up from $17.66.
Dividend Payout Ratio: 52.55%
ROTCE: 13.5%, down from 14.59%
Net Interest Income: $17.04M, up from $16.154M
FNLC Realized Gains to Date: $1,339.54
The largest gains occurred in 2016 on two 50 share lots:
Quote: Ford Motor Co. (F)
Proceeds: $109.2
F | Ford Motor Co. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 11/15/24, the average 2024 E.P.S. estimate was at $1.82, at $1.75 in 2025 and $1.86 in 2026. Those are probably non-GAAP estimates, but I did not check to confirm. While the P/E at $10.92 and using the $1.75 E.P.S. estimate is only 6.24, stock investors know that Ford will experience substantial percentage changes year-to-year in earnings and consequently discount earnings during an economic expansion.
I am concerned that new vehicle prices are so high that many households who have bought new cars in the past will be unable to buy a new car going forward. Kelley Blue Book (new vehicle average transaction price in October 2024 = $48,623)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.K. Bought 10 F at $9.79 (11/4/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.15 per share
Ford has a longer history of cutting or eliminating its dividend.
That is a reflection of extremely erratic earnings.
Last Ex Dividend: 11/7/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24) SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP E.P.S $.22, down from $.30
GAAP Net Income includes a $1B electric vehicle related charge.
Adjusted E.P.S. = $.49, up from $.39.
Revenues: $46.2B, up from $43.8B
Press Release after Elimination: Ford Announces Measures to Achieve Long-Term Competitiveness in Europe (11/20/24) Ford will be further reducing its workforce in Europe by 4,000 positions by the end of 2027.
C. Eliminated SAMG - Sold 10 at $18.1:
Quote: Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. Cl A
Proceeds: $181
SAMG Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $29.5
Last Elimination: Item # 2.B. Eliminated SAMG - Sold 10 at $16.65 (3/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $10)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.20 per share, last raised from $.19 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment.
SAMG Stock Dividend History & Date
Next Ex Dividend: 12/13/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Earnings will be dependent on net client inflows/outflows and the price of assets under management.
AUM at $35.1B
Total AUM increased by $3.9B or 12.5% compared to September 2023. The increase was attributable to market appreciation of $5.7B offset partially by client net outflows of $1.8B.
Diluted GAAP E.P.S. $.24, down from $.34
Diluted Non-GAAP E.P.S. $.26, down from $.36
Total expenses increased by $2.8B or 12%. Of that amount, compensation and benefit expenses increased $1.9B or 11.4%. G&A expenses increased by 13.4%. This explains the year-of-year decline in E.P.S. and makes the stock unattractive to me except for the dividend yield.
Consider to repurchase: <$15 which is lower than my last entry price of $15.15, with the adjustment related to the substantial increases in expenses.
The dividend yield at $15, using the current rate, is 5.33%.
D. Eliminated RVT - Sold 37+ at $15.95:
Quote: Royce Small-Cap Trust Inc. Overview - Stock CEF
Proceeds: $594.74
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/24 RVT information starts at page 38. As of 6/30/24, the cost of investments was at $1.484+B with the value then at $1.943+B.
Sponsor's Website: Royce Small-Cap Trust, Inc (RVT), formerly called Royce Value Trust
Royce Value Trust (RVT) Portfolio | Morningstar (lists top 23 holdings; unrated) I own only 1 of the stocks in that list.
Profit Snapshot: $114.61
Last Discussed: Item # 2.G. Added to RVT - Bought 5 at $12.05; 5 at $11.95 (10/28/23 Post); Item # 1.A. Added to RVT - Bought 5 at $13.95; 5 at $13.6 (9/9/23 Post)
Data Date of 11/15/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value per share: $17.91
Closing Market Price: $15.93
Discount: -11.06%
Average 3 year discount: -9.4%
Sourced: RVT - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
Dividend: Quarterly at a variable rate (Dividends are almost entirely sourced from long and short term capital gains)
Last 4 Dividends: $1.12 per share
Last Ex Dividend: 9/13/24
Largest Gain: Item # 1 Sold 505+ RVT at $15.89 (8/3/13 Post)(profit snapshot = $435.95)
Last Elimination: Item # 2.B. Eliminated RVT in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $17.5 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $50.7)
Current Position: None
D. Pared OFS Again - Sold 4 at $8.05:
Quote: OFS Capital Corp (OFS) - BDC
Proceeds: $32.2
The market capitalization at $8 is about $107.5M.
This pare was a result of my negative opinion about the third quarter earnings report discussed below.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.A. Sold 9 OFS at $8.14 (10/31/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $35.16)(I discussed my negative reaction to the second quarter earnings report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release); Item # 2.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in OFS - Sold 59+ at $9.56 and Item #2.B. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account - Sold 9+ at $9.55 (5/10/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $335.97). As noted there, I decided to eliminate this duplicate position based on an acceleration of non-performing loans and the erratic valuation marks for an equity position in a private company that represented 42.5% of net assets as of 3/31/24.
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 A summary of investments starts at page 8. If a company name has (6) next to it, the loan is on nonaccrual status. This is an example:
Amortized Cost = $13.463M/"fair value" = $9.67M, p. 13 |
2023 Annual Report (Risk factor summary starts at page 28 and ends at page 63)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.F. Bought 40 OFS with an Average Cost Per share of $4.18 (11/7/20 Post); Item # 2.L. Added 5 OFS at $3.97-Fidelity Taxable (11/28/20 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$15.93
New Average cost per share: $3.61 (36 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 11/11/24 after pare |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.34 per share ($1.36 annually).
Possible Dividend Cut: I am anticipating a dividend cut if the recent NII per share continues.
For the past two quarters, NII per share was substantially below the quarterly dividend.
2024 NII Per Share:
2nd Quarter: $.26
3rd Quarter: $.27
There are a number of reasons for the NII per share decline which I have discussed in prior posts.
To briefly summarize, OFS has experienced several realized losses on loans, several currently owned loans are on nonaccrual, investment income has declined for performing loans whose floating rate loans have reset at lower coupons, its largest holding is an equity position that does not pay dividends, and borrowing costs have increased year-over-year.
Yield at $3.61 AC = 37.67%
Next Ex Dividend: 12/20/24
Net Asset Value per share history:
9/30/24: $11.29
6/30/24: $11.51
3/31/24: $11.08
12/31/23: $12.09
9/30/23: $12.74
6/30/23: $12.94
12/31/22: $13.47
6/30/22: $14.57 10/Q for the Q/E 6/30/22 at page 3
03/31/21: $11.96 10-Q at page 3
12/21/20: $11.85 10-K at page 69
6/30/20: $10.10
3/31/20: $ 9.71
12/31/19: $12.46
9/30/19: $12.74
6/30/19: $12.95 Page 2 10-Q
3/31/19 $13.04 10-Q
12/31/18 $13.10
6/30/18 $13.70
03/31/18 $13.67
12/31/17 $14.12
12/31/16 $14.82
12/31/15 $14.76
12/31/14 $14.24
12/31/13 $14.54
IPO Offering Price at $15 (November 2012) with proceeds after the underwriters' discount at $13.05 Final Prospectus Supplement
OFS owns 400 shares in the private company Pfanstiehl. Looking at the 2019 OFS Annual Report, I noted that the 400 common shares was valued at $4.755M as of 12/31/2019. OFS then had outstanding a 10.5% subordinated loan of $3.768M outstanding. That loan matured in 2021 leaving OFS with just the equity position. (p. 96, 10-K) Frequently equity positions will be acquired by a BDC as part of a loan transaction.
In the 2024 first quarter, OFS marked down its equity investment in this private company to $63.077M. 10-Q at page 15 The percentage of net assets was then at 42.5%.
OFS marked this investment up to $70.831M as of 6/30/24, representing 45.9% of net assets. This markup was $7.754M or $.579 per share and exceeded the $.43 increase in net asset value per share claimed compared to the second quarter.
OFS valued this equity investment at $73.66M, or 48.7% of net assets, as of 9/30/24. 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 The $2.829M increase in valuation compared to the prior quarter added $.21 to the net asset value per share.
The net asset value is highly dependent on the valuation marks given to this equity investment, so I would heavily discount the net asset value per share numbers provided by this BDC as investors are doing in the current stock price. That opinion may change when and if OFS sells shares at prices equal to its current valuation marks which would confirm the net asset value per share marks.
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share: $.27
Net Asset value per share = $11.29
Weighted-average performing income yield - interest-bearing investments = 13.6%
Net Realized Losses on Investments:
Estimated Impacts of Interest Rate Changes on NII:
NII will decrease as short term rates decline.
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 at pages 65-66
Some Other Sell Discussions: Item # 1.D. Pared Duplicate Position in OFS - Sold 22 at $10.04(4/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.7); Item # 3.G. Pared OFS in Schwab Account - Sold 10 at $12.02 (1/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $21.59); Item # 3.D. Pared OFS in my Fidelity Account - Sold 8+ at $11.81 (1/20/24 Post)(profit snapshot - $60.72); Item # 1.B. Pared OFS in Schwab Account - Sold 20 at $11.51 (12/30/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $17.65); Item # 6.C. Pared OFS in Schwab Account - Sold 20 at $10.86 (9/30/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $28.94); Item # 3.A. Eliminated OFS in Vanguard Account - Sold 20 at $10.2 and Item # 3.B. Pared OFS in my Fidelity Account-Sold 10 at $10.15 (8/19/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $182.5)(Item #3.B. also contains snapshots of prior realized gains); Item # 3.D. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account - Sold 13.82 Shares at $11.32 (8/16/22 Post); Item # 4.B. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account - Sold 15.427 at $12.49 (6/15/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $60.07; contains snapshots of realized gains prior to 2022); Item # 4.D. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account - Sold 29+ at $13.06 (4/21/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $69.88); Item # 1.H. Pared OFS in Fidelity Account Sold 35 at $10.07- Highest Cost Lots That Could be Sold Profitably (7/22/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $12.44);; Item # 2.M. Pared OFS in Vanguard Taxable-Sold 20 at $7.2 (12/25/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $56.8); Item # 3.B. Sold 10 OFS at $12.04 (11/30/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.04); Item # 4.B. Sold 60 shares at $12 (11/13/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $13.11); Item # 3.A. Sold Highest Cost OFS Lots in Schwab Account - 50 shares at $12.27 and 50 at $12.47 (5/5/19 Post)(profit snapshots = $69.55)
OFS Realized Gains to Date: $1,167.27
Goal: Any realized gain in excess of the dividend payments.
E. Pared GDV - Sold 1+ at $25.02 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust Overview - Stock CEF
Proceeds: $44.44
Last Discussed: Item # 2.H. Added to GDV - Bought 5 at $18.41; 5 at $18.2 (10/28/23 Post)
SEC Filed Semiannual Report for the period ending 6/30/24 Leveraged using preferred stock (see page 29); Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust 4.25% Cum. Pfd. Series K (GDV.PRK); Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust 5.375% Cum. Pfd. Series H (GDV.PRH)
Sponsor's website: GDV
Top 10 Holdings as of 9/30/24:
Profit Snapshot: +$7.47
New Average cost per share this account: $19.39 (35 shares)
Snapshot Intraday on 11/8/24 after pare |
Dividend: Monthly at $.11 per share ($1.32 annually)
GDV Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $19.39: 6.81%, rounded up
Last Ex Dividend: 11/14/24
Largest Annual Realized Gain to Date: $1,429.35 (300 shares in 2013)
Item # 1. Sold 200 GDV at $21.03 (11/12/13 Post)(profit snapshot $1,393.8)
Data Date of 11/8/24 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $29.08
Closing Market Price: $25.07
Discount: -13.79%
Average 3 year discount: -14.12%
Sourced: GDV - CEF Connect
Gabelli Dividend & Income (GDV) Quote | Morningstar (rated 1 star)
Gabelli Dividend & Income (GDV) Portfolio | Morningstar (lists top 25 holdings)
Gabelli Dividend & Income (GDV) Performance | Morningstar Annual average total return for the 15 years ending on 11/8/24 was at 11.8% based on price and 10.68% based on net asset value per share. Over the same period, SPY had an annual average total return of 14.25%. The advantage of GDV is limited to its higher current dividend income compared to SPY.
F. Eliminated GDV in Vanguard Taxable Account - Sold 6 at $25.2:
See Item # 4.E. above.
Proceeds: $126
Profit Snapshot: $26.74
The total return was decent with the capital gains distributions:
Per Share |
I am going to find another micro cap mutual fund to buy. This one has been a bit disappointing.
Largest Gain: $422.81
I owned shares in 2007 when I went into a major allocation shift out of stocks into cash and high quality short term bonds. Updated Stock Fund Table as of 6/6/2013/2007 Stock Fund Eliminations and Pares (6/6/13 Post). Almost all of the funds mentioned in that 2013 post, as being owned at that time, have been sold.
3. Small Ball Buys:
A. Restarted REYN - Bought 5 at $27.36:
Quote: Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN)
The snapshot includes my last elimination in this account where I sold 20+ at $32.255.
Cost: $136.8
"Reynolds Consumer Products is a leading provider of household products that simplify daily life so consumers can enjoy what matters most. With a presence in 95% of households across the United States, Reynolds Consumer Products manufactures and sells products that people use in their homes for cooking, serving, cleanup and storage. Iconic brands include Reynolds Wrap® aluminum foil and Hefty® trash bags and disposable tableware, as well as dedicated store brands which are strategically important to retail customers. Overall, Reynolds Consumer Products holds the No. 1 or No. 2 U.S. market share position in the majority of product categories it serves."
Generally, this company would want to see households eat out less and have their meals at home. The pandemic was favorable to sales - more garbage and food storage bags.
Brands | Reynolds Consumer Products
REYN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch As of 10/15/25, the average E.P.S. estimate for 2025 was at $1.75 and at $1.85 for 2026. Using the $1.75 average for 2025 and the $27.36 price, the forward P/E is 15.63.
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 Long term debt at $1.735B, down from $1.832B as of 12/31/23
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Eliminated REYN - Sold 40+ at $29.64 (3/1/2024 Post)(profit snapshot = $60.56) I discussed the 2023 4th quarter report in that post.
Prior Elimination: Item # 4.F. Eliminated Duplicate REYN in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 20+ at $32.55 (12/6/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $95.96)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.23 per share ($.92), last raised from $.22 effective for the 2020 4th quarter.
REYN Dividend History | Nasdaq
Yield at $27.36 = 3.36%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/15/24 (owned as of)
E.P.S. $.41, up from $.37
Revenues: $910M, down from $935M
Guidance: 2024 E.P.S. $1.66-$.17
At the midpoint of $1.68, and a $27.36 price, the P/E is 16.29.
Consider to Buy: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain, probably in 5 share lots.
B. Added to PFE - Bought 5 at $24.9:
Quote: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Cost: $124.5
PFE | Pfizer Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
New Average cost per share: $29.68 (50+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.42 ($1.68 annually)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Provided the likely reinvestment price is lower than my average cost per share, I will reinvest the dividend.
Yield at New AC: 5.66%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/8/24 (owned 45+ shares as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): I discussed the last earnings report here: Item # 2.D. Added 5 PFE at $27.79; 5 at $27.34 (11/7/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release
Pfizer is one of the stocks that I will trade notwithstanding a negative opinion about the failed growth by acquisition business strategy and management incompetence. I have expressed those negative opinions in public posts going back 15 or so years.
My last re-entry into the stock is not working out, though I am likely to continue averaging down in 5 share lots.
Trump's appointment of RFK Jr, a vocal opponent of vaccines, had a negative impact on the stock. (My Video: RFK Appointment Leads to Declines in Drug and Packaged Food Stocks - YouTube)
PFE Realized Gains to Date: $1,316.21 (some sell discussions are linked in my last post) This numbers starts in 2006 when I first started to store snapshots of trades.
C. Added to NOMD - Bought 5 at $16.18:
Quote: Nomad Foods Ltd. (NOMD)
Cost: $80.9
Nomad describes itself as Europe's leading frozen food company.
Website: Home | Nomad Foods
NOMD SEC Filings (foreign company forms)
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Added to NOMD - Bought 5 at $17.2; 5 at $16.7 (6/20/24 Post)
New Average cost per share: $19.07 (90 shares)
Dividend: US$.15
NOMD Dividend History | Nasdaq
Nomad started paying a dividend in the 2024 first quarter.
Yield at $19.07: 3.146%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/8/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
Nomad reports in Euros.
1 EUR to USD - Euros to US Dollars Exchange Rate
Reported E.P.S. = €.44, down €.02
Adjusted E.P.S. = €.55, up €.12
2024 Guidance: Adjusted E.P.S. €1.72 - €1.77 implying growth of 7% to 10%.
If I used a 1.06 EUR/USD conversion rate, that range would be $1.823 - $1.876 in USDs.
The company experienced in the third quarter greater than expected headwinds from ERP implementation that apparently created a disruption.
ERP: Enterprise Resource Planning
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
There is another chart that goes back further in time:
3-Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate, Discount Basis - FRED | St. Louis Fed
A. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 11/18/24 Auction:
182 Day Bills:
Mature on 5/22/25
Interest: $217.89
Investment Rate: 4.467%
B. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 11/18/24 Auction - 2 Accounts:
91 Day Bill:
Matures on 2/20/25
Interest: $111.72
Investment Rate: 4.532%
5. Equity Preferred Stock:
Except for the DBRG.PRJ preferred stock, the rest discussed in this section were issued by bank holding companies.
Preferred stocks issued by bank holding companies have a downside risk of a zero price.
The main asset of a bank holding company is its operating bank.
If that asset is seized by the FDIC, the bank holding company will not have enough other assets to pay off senior bond owners and will file for bankruptcy. There will not be anything left for the common and preferred share owners. Owners of junior bonds issued by the holding company would likely have those securities become worthless. Senior bond owners will be taking large haircuts on their SU debt positions.
So that needs to be kept in mind when buying bank holding company preferred stocks.
Another problem is that many of the preferred stocks issued by bank holding companies over the past several years have low coupons, making it unlikely that they will ever be called at par value, though there will be exceptions. A major advantage of a bond is that there is a promise to redeem at par value when the bond matures.
During a period when the ten year treasury yield is rising, which has been happening since mid-September 2024, the preferred stock coupons and current yields become less attractive and even more so if the risk free yield continues to increase.
A. Eliminated DBRGPRJ - Sold 5 at $24.94:
Quote: DBRG-PJ
Proceeds: $124.7
Issuer: DigitalBridge Group Inc. (DBRG)
SEC Filed Loss Report for the Q/E 9/30/24 I view this preferred stock as high risk.
Last Discussed: Item # 4.A. Bought 5 DBRGPRJ at $20.85 (12/2/2023 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $20.45
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 7.125% paid on a $25 par value
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative.
Next Ex Dividend: 1/10/25
Quote: FHN-PE
Proceeds: $126
Issuer: First Horizon Corp. (FHN)
FHN Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I have eliminated my common stock position and do not have any position in FHN's equity securities.
FHN SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Last Discussed: Item # 2.J. Bought 5 FHNPRE at $18.09 (5/20/23 Post)
Profit = $35.56
FHNPRE Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 6.5% paid on a $25 par value
Annual Dividend: $1.625 per share
Dividends: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative.
Stopper Clause: Standard (p. S-16)
Maturity: Potentially perpetual
Issuer Optional Call: On or after 10/10/25
FHN SU Bond: I own 2 FHN 4% SU bonds that mature on 5/26/25. Bond Page | FINRA.org I will not be reinvesting the proceeds into another FHN bond.
I had 2 FHN bonds mature on 5/26/23:
C. Eliminated BWBBP - Sold 25 at $19.73:
Quote: Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. 5.875% Preferred Series A (BWBBP)
Proceeds: $493.3
Issuer: Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB)
BWB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Last Discussed: Item # 5.B. Bought 5 BWBBP at $15.7 (11/18/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $67.14
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.875% paid on the $25 par value
Dividends: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative
Issuer Optional Redemption: On or after 8/17/26
Maturity: None, potentially perpetual
Stopper Clause: Standard
D. Eliminated BOHPRA - Sold 12 at $16.84:
Quote: BOH-PA
Proceeds: $202.06
Issuer: Bank of Hawaii Corp. (BOH)
BOH Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Profit Snapshot: $34.78
Last Discussed: Item # 3.B. Bought 2 BOHPRA at $12.9 (10/28/23 Post); Item # 5.A. Added to BOHPRA - Bought 5 at $13.42 (10/14/23 Post)
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.375% paid on a $25 par value
Dividends: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative
Stopper Clause: Standard (summarized at page S-5)
Maturity: None (virtually all equity preferred stocks have no maturity, though there are a few exceptions)
Optional Redemption: On or after 8/1/26. Given the low coupon, I doubt that this preferred stock will ever be called.
E. Eliminated FULTP - Sold 10 at $19.87:
Proceeds: $198.66
Issuer: Fulton Financial Corp. (FULT) - A Bank Holding Company
I have eliminated my common stock position.
FULT SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Last Discussed: Item # 6.A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in FULTP - Sold 10 at $18.65 (5/3/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $25.8)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. Bought 5 FULTP at $15.09; 5 at $14.64 (5/13/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: +$49.99
Preferred Stock Prospectus
Coupon: 5.125%
Par Value: $25
Dividends: Paid Quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative
Optional Call: On or after 1/15/2026
Maturity: None
Stopper Clause: Standard (FULT must eliminate the common share cash dividend before eliminating the non-cumulative preferred stock dividend)
FULTP Dividend History | Nasdaq
F. Eliminated TCBIO in 2 Accounts - Sold 25 at $20.91 and 21 at $20.93:
Quote: Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. 5.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Series B
Proceeds: $962.25
Issuer: Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. (TCBI)
TCBI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
TCBI SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
Last Discussed: Item #9.B Pared TCBIO - Sold 2 at $22.53 (9/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.48)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.A. Added to TCBIO - Bought 5 at $15.95; 2 at $15.6 (10/28/23 Post); Item # 3.A. Added to TCBIO - Bought 5 at $17.95 (9/9/23 Post)
Profit Snapshot: $126.88
TCBIO Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 5.75% paid on the $25 par value
Dividends: Paid quarterly, qualified and non-cumulative.
Last Ex Dividend: 9/3/24
Stopper Clause: Standard (enforces the preferred shareholders superior claim to cash compared only to the common shareholders) If the preferred share dividend is legally eliminated, it is gone, just like the eliminated cash common share dividend, with the issuer under no legal obligation to pay the preferred dividend again unless the stopper clause is reactivated by paying a cash dividend to the common shareholder or using cash to buy back common stock.
A. Bought 1 Treasury 4% Coupon Maturing on 2/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.633:
YTM at 4.301%
7. Cash Flow Payments into IB account on 11/15/24:
Bond Redemptions: $6,000 ($144.28 "profit")
Interest Payments: $309
There is an IRS rule, which I forget because it is unfair and annoying, that will reclassify what would ordinarily be a long or short term capital gain from a bond redemption or sale into interest income. That is why I put "profit" in quotes.
I own some of those bonds in other taxable accounts including my Vanguard and Fidelity accounts. The following are snapshot of redemption proceeds received in those taxable accounts on 11/15:
And I had 4 mature in Roth IRA accounts.
8. TIP Purchase RI Account in Secondary Market:
A. Bought 1 TIP 1.625% Coupon Maturing on 10/15/27:
I am filling a gap in my TIP ladder.
I discussed this purchase here: Treasury Inflation Protected Notes - Purchases at Auction and Secondary Market - YouTube
YTM Real Yield: 1.733%
How Do I Calculate the Yield of an Inflation Adjusted Bond?
Matures on 10/15/27 Dated Date -Original Issuance: 10/15/22 Inflation Factor: 1.06365 Price Paid 99.695 Multiply Price Paid by inflation factor: 106.041 Multiply 106.041 x.10 = $1,060.41 paid to the seller (price is at 1/10 of principal amount) Accrued Interest Paid to the Seller: $1.61 Settlement Date: 11/18/25 (seller compensated for inflation accretion through this date) I receive the inflation accretion starting on 11/19/24.
Most of the time, I am not going to receive the best ask price with a 1 bond purchase. This is what the order book looked like when I placed my trade:
The best price required a 100 bond order.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
One sector that appears to look favorably upon Trump's election is the energy infrastructure stocks. The idea may be that building new pipelines may become easier and less costly due to revisions in federal regulations. Hard to say now whether any changes would achieve that goal. Several pipeline projects have been shelved over the past several years to costly delays, frequently due to environment regulations, and opposition from a variety of parties that go beyond environmental groups.
ReplyDeleteI am having trouble holding onto my positions.
I am down to owning 8+ shares of OKE, having sold 1 share that I will discuss in my next post. My average cost per share is $21.44.
ONEOK Inc. (OKE)
$ 116.81 +$3.65 +3.23%
Last Updated: Nov 21, 2024 at 12:56 p.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/oke?mod=search_symbol
I have been discussing a number of pares in WMB and have whittled down the position to $65+ shares with an average cost per share at $23.89.
Williams Cos. (WMB)
$59.67 +$ 0.97 +1.65%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/wmb?mod=search_symbol
I also own PBA, KMI, TRP and ENB. I will be discussing in my next post selling 3 TRP.
I am going to wait until next year to start selling small lots in KMI.
Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI)
$28.59 +$ 0.59 +2.09%
Last Updated: Nov 21, 2024 at 1:02 p.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/kmi?mod=search_symbol
My primary positions in securities issued by ENB, OKE and KMI are in their senior unsecured debt.
The primary position in PBA is its reset equity preferred stock PPLPRC which provides me with a higher yield at my cost than the common stock:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PPL-PC.TO/
I own 400 shares with an average cost per share of C$16.75. The coupon reset at 6.019%, paid on a C$25 par value, for 5 years effective 3/1/24. I discussed that reset in Item # 1 of this post:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/02/aod-cpf-eqr-ffhprfca-fhb-fnlc-fsco-glw.html
My TTE (Total, French based) is down. I bought at $45 and traded at $60.60.
Delete(I haven't ventured into mid-stream since my 2014 buys did poorly.)
But KGS that sunk after 2014, has been on a rally. Still underwater for me, but 49% in last 6 months.
The 9 year/8 month TIP, auctioned earlier today (11/21), has a real yield of 2.071%. The coupon is 1.875%, which was set at the July auction of the 10 year TIP. This was a reopening.
ReplyDeleteSince nominal yields have gone up some since that earlier auction, the unadjusted price for the reopening was at 98.295224, lower than the price at the original auction, and the adjusted price was 98.76016 which adjusts the principal amount by the CPI increase since this TIP was auctioned in July. The inflation factor was 1.00473. Multiply the unadjusted price by the inflation factor to arrive the adjusted principal amount.
My gut has informed me that the annual average CPI until maturity of this TIP will be higher than breakeven inflation rate, which I am guessing is too low currently. At the moment, the breakeven inflation rate is at 2.35%. Making this guess about the future guides a decision on whether to buy the TIP or the ten year non-inflation protected treasury. There is also some benefit in having a least part of my bond portfolio in inflation protected securities in case there is a return to problematic inflation similar or worse to what happened in 2021-2022.
Manulife Financial Corp (MFC-PM.TO)
ReplyDeleteWhen I last pared MFC, I mentioned that this Manulife reset equity preferred stock was going to reset its coupon for 5 years on 11/20/24.
The reset was at a 2.36% spread to the 5 year Canadian bond yield which resulted in a new coupon of 5.542% paid on a C$25 par value.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manulife-financial-corporation-announces-dividend-rates-on-non-cumulative-rate-reset-class-1-shares-series-17-and-non-cumulative-floating-rate-class-1-shares-series-18-302312160.html
The last quarterly payment at the old rate of C$.237 went ex dividend yesterday. The new quarterly dividend rate for the next five years will be $0.346375 per share. That increases my dividend yield at my constant cost to 9.15%.
Item # 2.A. Bought 100 MFCPRM:CA at C$15.14:
https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2020/07/aio-cibr-cs-htia-igr-mfcprmca-mgk-mnr.html
MFC is another stock that I am having difficulty in keeping. I sold another 5 shares today at $32.79. The recent pares are sourced from the same lot bought at $11.41 in 2020.
Manulife Financial Corp.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mfc?mod=search_symbol
Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX)
ReplyDelete$52.38 +0.75 +1.45%
Last Updated: Nov 22, 2024 at 10:17 a.m. EST
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/vktx?mod=search_symbol
Yesterday, just to prove that I can be a wild and crazy guy to the Young Turks who believe that I may be a tad to conservative, I restarted a position by buying 2 shares after reviewing the press release summarizing the trial results for Viking's NASH drug.
https://ir.vikingtherapeutics.com/2024-11-19-Viking-Therapeutics-Presents-Results-from-Phase-2b-VOYAGE-Study-of-VK2809-in-Biopsy-Confirmed-NASH-MASH-at-the-75th-Liver-Meeting-R-2024
Discussed at
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/viking-bids-farewell-voyage-final-data-showing-drug-reduces-liver-fibrosis-mash
I had started a position in VKTX when the price was in the low single digits based on its weight loss drug. I eliminated the position at based on my gut informing me that another weight loss drug from a clinical stage company with no experience at making and marketing drugs would be hard to gain traction in a market already dominated by Lilly and Novo.
May 20, 2023
Item # 1.A. Eliminated VKTX - Sold 30 at $22.84:
Profit Snapshot = $551.7 https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2023/05/bbdc-botz-brkl-cfg-fhb-fhnpre-hbnc-jqc.html
I did note that Viking needed to be acquired by a larger company, and a lot would depend on how successful its NASH drug would be in clinical trials.
Last VKTX Buy Discussion:
Item # 1.I. Added to Lotto VKTX-Bought 5 at $4.67; 3 at $4.35; 10 at $3.95: https://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2022/01/amcx-cohu-dnngy-ed-fan-hcmly-ip-pay.html
I have a larger position in Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) that will receive a royalty and milestone payments when and if the NASH drug is approved for marketing. LGND also owns 1M VKTX shares as disclosed in its last earnings report.
LGND 10-Q at page 14 (noting sale of .7M shares in 2024 for a $60M gain and page 38 (top). LGND has made significant profits from its VKTX investment.
See page 11 for potential tier royalties and milestones for VKTK 2809.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886163/000088616324000009/lgnd-20231231.htm
As a reminder, I have zero training in medical science or any science for that matter. I will take lottery ticket type positions in a few clinical stage companies that appear interesting to me, more like playing a hand of blackjack with the money rather than as an investment.
UGI Corp. (UGI)
ReplyDelete$28.50 +3.72 +15.01%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ugi?mod=search_symbol
I recently started a position, primarily in my bond substitute category, and sold 5 today. I was not as enthusiastic as the market about the earnings report.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884614/000088461424000079/ugisept2024ex991.htm
In Item # 7, I noticed that I had the wrong snapshot for interest payments received in my IB account on 11/15/24 and have now included the correct snapshot.
I will be participating in the 3, 6 and 1 year treasury bill auctions next week and will probably buy 1 at the 2 year treasury note auction.
I discussed those plans in a YT video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoAYwMS7TuE
1 year treasury bill yield: 4.41%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd01y?countrycode=bx
That yield does not factor in more than 1 twenty five basis point cut, either at the December meeting or in the first quarter. The current FF range is 4.5% to 4.75%.
The CME FedWatch Tool currently has a probability that the FF range will be 50 basis points lower on or before the June meeting at 64.3%.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The 6 month to 1 year treasury bill yields are not that optimistic about 2 rate cuts before June.
The 6 month T bill at 4.49% is probably signaling a less than 50% chance of 1 cut and that would be in January, not December.
I have published a new post:
ReplyDeletehttps://tennesseeindependent.blogspot.com/2024/11/aio-arcc-bce-bbdc-dow-feny-fsk-hppprc.html