Economy:
Trump will be imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
Steel Imports Up 2.5% in 2024 - American Iron and Steel Institute "For full year 2024 the largest suppliers were Canada (6,557,000 NT, down 5% vs. 2023), Brazil (4,498,000 NT, up 14%), Mexico (3,517,000 NT, down 16%), South Korea (2,809,000 NT, up 7%) and Vietnam (1,363,000 NT, up 143%)."
Canada is by far the largest country exporter of aluminum. U.S. Aluminum Import Monitor- International Trade Commission
In his first term, he imposed a 25% tariff or steel and 10% on aluminum Trump promises 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports — including from Canada | CBC News After imposing the tariffs, Trump did grant exemptions to Canada, Mexico, the EU and UK.
An analyst at Baird posted yesterday that the 2018 Trump tariff taxes on steel raised the price of cars 4% to 6%. Steel accounts for about 20% of the cost of heavy machinery.
The history of Trump's first term tariffs on steel and aluminum imports is discussed in this article. Biden and Europe remove Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, but it’s not free trade | PIIE Those tariffs increased the cost of U.S. manufacturers who used these metals and hurt their sales.
Global winners and losers of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs The authors correctly point out that the tariffs will result in more investment in U.S. steel and aluminum production, provided they remain in effect for a long time. They do not discuss the inflationary impact of the tariffs and how those impacts will reduce demand, hurting U.S. GDP growth. In addition to making foreign steel and aluminum imports far more expensive for U.S. manufacturers, the tariffs will allow U.S. producers to raise prices which invariably happens when tariffs provide a price umbrella. Foreign nations impacted by the tariffs will likely retaliate by increasing tariffs on U.S. exports. The retaliation may be limited to aluminum and steel exports from the U.S. but could focus more on entirely different products that would cause red states voters to complain (e.g. farm products).
Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M01 Results
Jobs: +143,000
Unemployment: 4%
Work Week: Down .1 hr to 34.1 hours
Average Hourly Wages: +$.17 to $35.87
November and December Jobs Revised up by a 100,000 to a combined 568,000
U-6 Number unchanged at 7.5%, Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2025 M01 Results
I mentioned in a comment published on 2/7/25 that Michigan's preliminary consumer index for February was reported at 67.7 vs. the consensus of 74, and down from 71.1 in January. What spooked investors was that the expectation for inflation over the next year jumped to 4.3% compared to 3.3% in January. Americans, including Republicans, now fear higher inflation this year | CNN Business
The January ISM services index was reported at 52.8%, down from %4% in December. The new orders component declined to 51.3 from 54.4.
ADP reported that private payroll jobs increased by 183,000 in January 2025, more than the consensus estimate of 150,000. The December 2024 was revised up from 122,000 to 176,000. Private payrolls expanded by 183,000 in January, topping expectations, ADP says; ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 4.7%
Automakers say Trump tariffs on Canada and Mexico will cause U.S. car prices to rise - CBS News S&P Global Mobility estimates that a 25% Trump tariff tax on exports from Mexico and Canada would increase the price of a $25,000 car, paid by the U.S. consumer, by about $6,250. But do not worry. Donald has represented to you that the foreign country will pay his tariff tax. Fact-checking Trump's claims that tariffs are a "tax on a foreign country" - YouTube He has repeatedly made that false claim. Trump's tariff taxes are or will be paid by the U.S. importer and will then be passed on to U.S. consumers who will be paying all or almost all of the tax. 80% of republicans believe Trump is honest.
China’s economic miracle looks to be in the past. Here’s why the future looks bleaker and bleaker. - MarketWatch (subscription publication)
In an interview with Fox "News", Trump claimed that Elon Musk has found "very fraudulent" activity and the U.S. may not be obligated to make some debt payments due to that alleged fraud. Trump says US may have less debt than thought because of fraud | Reuters After reading his statement quoted in that Reuters article, it is not clear whether Trump was referring to cancelling debt issued by the treasury, which would have catastrophic consequences, or recovering payments already made by the treasury due to alleged fraud and then using the proceeds to pay off debt. I would assume the later. This needs to be clarified.
We will see in the fullness of time whether Trump is able to prove fraud in a court of law.
{The actual existence of fraud is not proven by Musk, who, like Trump, is not believable, claiming to have found examples. Musk may, for example, be offering an opinion that he personally disagrees with the spending or he lacks sufficient information to form any conclusion which does not prevent him from forming one nonetheless}
During that Fox "News" interview, Trump also stated that Canada and Mexico were not doing enough to prevent the imposition of the 25 tariffs. Trump also stated that he was serious about making Canada the 51st state. Was Trump Super Bowl interview with Fox News edited? Abrupt cut raises questions - nj.com
While Trump has ordered U.S. employees to return to work, Trump and Musk ordered the General Services Administration, formerly an independent agency, to start canceling all of its roughly 7,500 office leases. This effort is being led by Nicole Hollander according to AP. She was an "X" employee who has been embedded recently in the GSA. Musk visits and asserts growing influence at GSA - Nextgov/FCW
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Allocation Shifts Discussed in this Post:
Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction: $15,000 in Principal Amount
Corporate Bonds: $22,000 in Principal Amount
I have decided to discuss the remaining corporate bond purchases ($42,000 in principal amount) made through 2/7/25 in my next post which will be published later today.
Net Outflow Individual Common Stocks: -$816.69
(Consisting of in $1,571.62 proceeds minus $754.93 in purchases with a realized gain of +$476.2)
Net Outflow Stock Funds: - $2,679.67 (no purchases with the realized gain at +$442.97)
Outflow Stocks/Stock Funds: -$3,496.36
I am about to halt discussing my stock and stock fund trades with 2 insignificant trades made through last Friday discussed in my next post. I am now at a virtual standstill in stocks as I explained in my last YouTube video: Causes of Stock Market Decline Last Friday- Suspending Stock Trades Until Further Notice - YouTube. I am not a fan of chaos. I may do some inconsequential selling into stock rallies but will not be discussing those trades. I am already down to a bare minimum in my stock allocation which consists of anywhere from 200-250 dividend paying common stocks with an allocation in the 8% to 10% range of investable assets held at brokerage companies.
Inflow Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds: +$319.75
Net Outflow Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stock: -C$1,068 with a realized gain of +C$262.5)
2025 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$6,214.05
2024 Net Outflow Common Stocks/Stock Funds: -$65,632.15 (the actual outflow would be a few thousand dollars higher since I do not discuss all trades)
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Trump's job approval rating is currently at 53%. Anthony Salvanto says Americans feel Trump is doing "what he said he would do in the campaign" - YouTube
Donald Trump doubles down on US taking Gaza Trump claims that Israel will turn GAZA over to the U.S. after the Palestinians are relocated somewhere. What is the current U.S. policy on GAZA? Trump says Palestinians won't have the right to return to Gaza under his plan: "I would own this" - CBS News (2/10/25)
The Paranoia Driving the Assault on USAID - The Atlantic Discusses how Elon Musk's conspiracy theories have become official U.S. policies.
A 25-Year-Old With Elon Musk Ties Has Direct Access to the Federal Payment System-WIRED;
Musk aide resigns after racist posts exposed; JD Vance Wants To BRING BACK Elon’s Super Racist DOGE Employee - YouTube; Elon Musk says DOGE staffer who resigned for racist X posts will be brought back Who, if anyone, is surprised? The aide wanted everyone to know that he was racist before it was cool to be a racist.
One of the young men, whose has the moniker Big Balls is 19, and a high school graduate who reportedly may have advertised on Telegram, according to a Wired magazine investigation, as a hacker for hire. Who is 'Big Balls'? - Newsweek; Wired Reveals History of Musk's 19-year-old DOGE Staffer ("Someone using a Telegram handle tied to Coristine also solicited a cyberattack-for-hire").
Bloomberg reported that he had been fired from a cybersecurity firm for allegedly sharing company secrets with a competitor. One of Elon Musk's DOGE Boys Was Fired by Previous Job for Leaking Company Secrets
Trump's Treasury Secretary claimed that the DOGE Boys only had read only access to the Treasury Department's file computers which allowed them copy data and programs. An investigation by Wired magazine found the Boys had "read-write" access that would allow them to rewrite the code. Musk's DOGE team's access to Treasury records
I read another story that one young Musk protege, a college Freshman, demanded that computer programmers defend their jobs.
Elon FREAKS OUT With Unhinged ATTACKS - YouTube Musk has a large anti-semitic and white supremacist following.
Musk associates sought to use critical Treasury payment system to shut down USAID spending, emails show It does not matter to these people that Congress has authorized these payments through USAID spending laws passed using the process set out in the Constitution.
J.D. Vance is arguing that Trump may ignore court orders when he views the order as interfering with his powers as President. (J.D. Vance Says Trump Can Ignore Judges, a MSN republication of an article originally published at Rolling Stone, J.D. Vance Says Trump Can Ignore Judges; and AP article titled JD Vance and Elon Musk question the authority of the courts as Donald Trump’s agenda faces legal pushback)
Trump has said that he can do anything as President, so the scope of Presidential "legitimate" power in Trump's America has no limits. All the times Trump said the constitution let's him do whatever he wants - YouTube Close to one-half of the voting population agrees provided Trump is the one making the decisions rather than a Democrat President.
Vance cited an argument made by the far right constitutional law professor Adrian Vermeule for this legal theory, which, if adopted, would inevitably lead to unchecked theocratic authoritarianism in the U.S. with Trump, the Chosen One, as the Mullah in Chief, an obvious choice in TrumpWorld since he knows so much about the Bible and what it means to be a good Christian as shown by his actions and words for the past 5 decades. All the times Trump said the constitution let's him do whatever he wants - YouTube
Trump Signals He Might Ignore the Courts - The Atlantic
What Trump is doing is impounding funds appropriated by Congress by Executive Order, which is not only a brazen violation of existing law but is also a Constitutional Law violation, as I previously discussed in a YouTube Video: Trump's Proposal To Impound Funds Authorized by Congress pursuant to laws that he does not like - YouTube (published 7 months ago)
Trump’s Assault on USAID Makes Project 2025 Look Like Child’s Play - The Atlantic I do believe that this is consistent with his psychopathy and that of others working in his Administration.
USAID staff to be cut to 294 employees from 10,000, sources say | REUTERS - YouTube
Trump's Foreign Aid Freeze Is Derailing Anti-HIV Efforts
Authoritarian regimes around the world cheer on dismantling of USAid
Trump energy secretary allowed 23-year-old DOGE rep to access IT systems over objections from general counsel
Trump, Musk Push Lie About Government Funding Politico Trump and Musk are making so many false statements that even the most conscientious fact checkers can not keep up.
In addition to the usual demonstrably false and misleading statements, Trump and Musk will simply state a conclusion or an opinion as a fact without providing evidentiary support.
A common refrain now heard among republican politicians and other Trumpsters is that Trump/Musk are eliminating only "wasteful" spending, meaning spending that has been authorized by Congress that they do not like. Republican House and Senate members do not want to go on record cutting the spending through Constitutional means, that is, actually voting to repeal laws authorizing the spending. Just allow Trump-Musk to repeal the laws on their own initiatives.
Trump’s recent actions show his revenge tour isn’t slowing down Prior to the election, I listened to several interviews with Trump voters who claimed that Trump would not be seeking retribution. They had to know that he would.
Bondi ends FBI effort to combat foreign influence in U.S. politics This is retribution for U.S. intelligence finding that Russia attempted to influence the U.S. election on Trump's behalf. Press | Intelligence Committee; Study Confirms Influence of Russian Internet “Trolls” on 2016 Election | Columbia SIPA
Health clinics face cuts, closures as Trump's funding fight ripples outside of Washington; Health clinics grapple with US funding squeeze | Reuters
NIH slashes funding for research overhead, leaving universities scrambling - POLITICO
Trump dissolves agency reviewing Elon Musk’s Tesla for potential discrimination
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is ordered by Russell Vought to stop fighting financial abuse Vought was a co-author of the Project 25 plan that Trump is now implementing.
Senate Confirms Project 2025 Architect Russell Vought As Trump's Budget Director; Trump’s administration seems chaotic, but he’s drawing directly from Project 2025 playbook; Where Trump policies and Project 2025 proposals match up - CBS News; Now we know: Trump was planning to do Project 2025 all along Project 2025 is being implemented by Trump. I suspect that those voting for Trump did not take seriously his attempt to distance himself from the Project 2025 recommendations.
A father of five was detained by ICE on his way to work. Now his family is losing their home | The Independent He has been living peacefully in the U.S. for 15 years.
Representative Nancy Mace (R-SC) Said "Let's Turn Gaza Into Mar-a-Lago" After Trump Announcement - Newsweek
PolitiFact | Killing chickens, banning TikTok: Six times Trump criticized Democrats for things he also supported Trump knows that that he can engage in this shameless criticism since most people are unaware of, or have forgotten in limited cases what he has said and done in the past on the same subject matters.
Trudeau says Trump’s threat to annex Canada ‘a real thing’
‘Treated like criminals’: Shackling of Indians aboard 40-hour migrant flight sparks new outrage against Trump | CNN I don't think that it is possible for most foreign governments and citizens to separate their opinions about Trump from their opinions about U.S., given that he has been elected President twice, has been the republican nominee for President 3 times, and his servants now control the House and the Senate, with a Supreme Court dominated by 6 republicans who have shown no inclination to put boundaries on a President including holding the President accountable for crimes committed while in office after the term ends. It is pathway to dictatorship knowingly given to someone who would likely seize the opportunity if re-elected last November and this is now underway.
Musk calls to impeach judge whose order blocks DOGE from Treasury systems access
The Oligarchs Who Came to Regret Supporting Hitler - The Atlantic The author is summarizing some facts discussed in his book titled Takeover: Hitler's Final Rise to Power. It is not usual for plutocrats to pave the way for a fascist or other authoritarian leader.
How to Un-DEI Your Workplace: An HR Training Video | The Daily Show - YouTube
Zakaria warns there’s a real cost to Trump’s head-spinning moves - YouTube
The New Authoritarianism - The Atlantic I would characterize Trump as America's first dictator, a result approved by those voting for him IMO. The republicans in Congress might as well go home and allow Trump to vote for them. There is probably no or minimal restraints on the exercise of Presidential power among the 6 Republican Supreme Court Justices.
The only cure for the pure Orwellianism (where truth is rarely spoken by republican politicians), authoritarianism and assorted pathologies of Trumpism in my lifetime may be a serious recession accompanied by a return of problematic inflation and soaring unemployment occurring when he is the President and the republicans in control over the Senate and House.
I agree with the comments made by George Conway in this Atlantic article: America Did This to Itself - The Atlantic (subscription publication) The article is summarized in this article, which has no paywall, with some quotes: George Conway reflects on election: America did this to itself
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1. Small Ball Sells:
A. Eliminated Duplicate Position in ENB - Sold 10 at $43.12 (Schwab Account):
Quote: Enbridge Inc. (ENB) - Energy Infrastructure
Proceeds: $431.19
The headquarters is in Canada but ENB has extensive operations in the U.S.
ENB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
ENB SEC Filings
ENB 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24
Website: Home - Enbridge Inc.
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report The various businesses are discussed at pages 14-33, with maps of the various pipelines and other facilities.
2025 Guidance: Enbridge Announces 2025 Financial Guidance, 3% Dividend Increase and Reaffirms Near-term Growth Outlook (12/3/24) Distributable cash flow per share $5.5 - $5.9.
Profit Snapshot: $146.02
Last Discussed: Item # 2.A. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Positions in ENB - Sold 20 at $36.2 in Vanguard Account (6/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $141.27)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.F. Added to ENB in Vanguard Taxable Account-Bought 5 at $29.51; 5 at $28.95; 5 at $27.4 (10/31/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Added 5 ENB at $30.65-Fidelity Taxable (8/15/20 Post); Item # 1.C. Added 1 ENB at $27.23; 1 at $26.21; 1 at $25.49; 1 at $24.29; 1 at $23.68 (4/18/20 Post)
Dividends: Quarterly at C$.9425 per share (C$3.77 annually), last raised from C$.915 effective for the 2025 first quarter.
Dividends and Common Shares - Enbridge Inc.
Canada will withhold a 15% tax when the dividend is paid into a U.S. citizens taxable account.
Foreign Tax: Credit or Deduction? | Charles Schwab
Dividends in USDs: ENB Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last 4 Dividends in USDs: $2.66
Yield at $43.12: 6.17%
Dividend History: Good so far
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
All number are in Canadian Dollars.
Revenues: $14.882B
GAAP E.P.S. $.59
Adjusted E.P.S. $.55, down from $.62 in the 2023 3rd Q.
Distributable Cash Flow ("DCF"): $2.6B, up from $2.573B 2023 3rd Q.
DCF per share $1.19, down from $1.26 primarily due to a higher share count. DCF is important for dividend coverage purposes.
DCF computation:
Remaining Position: 30 shares with an average cost per share of $29.55. Using the USD value of the last 4 dividends ($2.66), the yield is about 9%.
ENB Preferred Stock and SU Bonds: I maintain a larger position in an Enbridge equity preferred stock (600 shares of ENB.PRP:CA) and Enbridge SU bonds. I have 4 Enbridge SU bonds maturing on 3/15/25.
I may sell 100 of the 600 shares of ENB.PRP:CA as a lower my exposure to this niche category of preferred stocks.
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 5.B. Pared ENB in Fidelity Account - SOLD 3 at $40.63 (1/16/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $24.15); Item # 3.B. Pared ENB in Fidelity Taxable Account - Sold 2 at $43.01 (8/23/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $19.2); Item # 7.A. Pared ENB in Schwab Account - Sold 2 at $46.77 (4/28/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $33.27); Item # 3.F. Pared ENB in Fidelity Account - Sold 5 at $42.4 (3/17/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $42.71); Item 1.F. Pared ENB - Sold 3 at $42.18 (2/3/2022 Post)(profit snapshot = $22.89); Item # 1.E. Sold Remaining Shares Purchased with Dividends in Fidelity Account at 40.14 (10/15/21 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.93); Item # 1.B. Sold 8 ENB at $42.36 (2/19/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.36); Item # 3.B. Sold 17 ENB at $40.21 (1/18/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $68.18); Item # 1.B. Sold 15 ENB at $37.61-Used Commission Free Trade (2/20/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $9.29); Item # 3 Sold 50 ENB at $39.03 (12/21/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $72.48); Sold 10 ENB at $40.14 (1/4/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.21)(no item #)
ENB Realized Gains to Date: $686.34
ENB Preferred Stocks Realized Gains: I have and probably always will have a larger profit trading ENB preferred stocks.
ENBPRP:CA Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Sold 100 out of 400 ENBPRP:CA at C$20.20 (12/31/21 Post)(profit snapshot = C$368); Item # 4.A. Sold 200 ENBPRP at C$19.91 (3/25/17 Post)(profit snapshot = C$963, contains a snapshot of a prior realized gain of US$1,458.25 converted by Fidelity into USDs from a CAD profit of C$1,814)
Realized Gains ENB Reset Equity Preferred Stocks: Snapshots can be found as part of this post: Advantages and Disadvantages of Equity Preferred Floating Rate Securities
2016 ENBPRF (100) = C$196
2017 ENBPRP (300) = C$1,814
2017 ENBPRP (200) = C$963
2021 EBGEF (150-2 trades) = US$351.52 (traded on the U.S. Grey Market)
2021 ENBPRP (100) = C$368
Totals: +C$3,341; +US$ 351.52
B. Eliminated GILD - Sold 5 at $99.25:
Quote: Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)Proceeds: $426.24
GILD Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
GILD SEC Filings
Last Discussed: Item # 3.K. Sold 1 GILD at $89.46 (11/7/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $24.63) I discussed the 2024 second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Prior Sell Discussion: Item #6.F. Eliminated GILD - Sold 10+ at $82.99; 6+ at $83.01; 1 at $83.83 (11/15/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $394.77)
Profit Snapshot: $173.47
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.D. Bought 1 GILD at $63.45 (7/7/24 Post); Item # 1.A. Restarted GILD - Bought 5 at $64.83 (5/31/24 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.77 per share, last raised from $.75 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. - Dividend History
Last Ex Dividend: 12/13/24
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24):
The company remains heavily dependent on its HIV drugs.
Of the HIV drugs Biktarvy generated $3.472B in sales. GILD has done well defending its preeminent position in HIV. Gilead to fork over $1.25B, pay 3% royalty on blockbuster Biktarvy in GSK patent settlement | Fierce Pharma (2/1/22)
GAAP E.P.S. $1.
Non-GAAP E.P.S. $2.12
Reconciliation:
As with other large pharmaceutical companies, there are a lot of adjustments to GAAP E.P.S. to arrive at non-GAAP E.P.S. And I would not describe the adjustments as extraordinary but fairly routine even though the causes change over time. GAAP rarely looks enticing. The GAAP E.P.S. number for the first nine months was ($1.04)
I am just unable to remain interested about owning shares for an extended period.
Free Cash Flow: $4.169B
C. Eliminated MRCC- Sold 30 at $8.6:
Quote: Monroe Capital Corp. (MRCC) - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $257.99
Item # 3.D. Sold 20 MRCC at $8.05 (10/16/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $6.05) I discussed the 2024 second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
MRCC SEC Filings
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report (Risk factors summary starts at page 36 and ends at page 73)
Profit Snapshot: $44.59
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 2.G. Added to MRCC - Bought 10 at $7.17 - Schwab Account (12/9/23 Post); Item # 1.K. Added to MRCC - Bought 5 at $7.05 (10/21/23 Post)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.25 per share, last cut from $.35 effective for the 2020 second quarter payment.
MRCC Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Ex Dividend: 1
Net Asset Value Per Share: Unfavorable
9/30/24: $9.18
12/31/23: $9.40
12/31/22: $10.39
12/31/21: $11.51
12/31/20 $11
12/31/19: $12.2
12/31/18: $12.66
12/31/17: $13.77
12/31/16: $14.52
12/31/15: $14.19
12/31/14: $14.05
12/31/13: $13.92
Public Offering Price: $15 per share, proceeds to MRCC at $14.72, Monroe Capital Corporation
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
NII per share: $.31
"The Company had debt and equity investments in 94 portfolio companies, with a total fair value of $474.3 million as of September 30, 2024, as compared to debt and equity investments in 94 portfolio companies, with a total fair value of $485.8 million, as of June 30, 2024. The Company’s portfolio consists primarily of first lien loans, representing 80.0% of the portfolio as of September 30, 2024, and 81.1% of the portfolio as of June 30, 2024. As of September 30, 2024, the weighted average contractual and effective yields on the Company’s debt and preferred equity investments were 11.0% and 11.0%, respectively, as compared to 11.9% and 11.9%, respectively, as of June 30, 2024. The decreases in yields were primarily due to the decline in base rates and the placement of an additional portfolio company on non-accrual status during the quarter. Portfolio yield is calculated only on the portion of the portfolio that has a contractual coupon and therefore does not account for dividends on equity investments (other than preferred equity). As of September 30, 2024, portfolio investments on non-accrual status represented 3.1% of the Company’s total investments at fair value."
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 Summary of investments starts at page 7; company estimates of loan credit risks can be found at pages 82-83; the estimated impacts on NII based on changes is listed in table form at page 107). Lower NII occurs when floating rate loans, priced at spreads to short term rates, reset a lower coupons based on the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate.
D. VHCOX - Sold 5 at $86.62:
Quote: Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund;Investor Overview
Proceeds: $433.1
Last Discussed: Item # 1.A. Sold 5 VHCOX at $91.2 (12/5/24 Post)(profit snapshot =$255.04)
Subsequent to that pare, the fund went ex dividend for $6.6936 distribution per share.
Sponsor's website: VHCOX (closed to new investors)
VHCOX – Portfolio- Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars; lists top 24 holdings)s
Profit Snapshot: $231.54
Average cost per share: $40.31 (55+ shares)
There was no change in the AC per share since the average tax cost method is used. The AC per share would change only if I bought additional shares.
The original acquisition date for this lot was on 4/15/2013.
First Purchase: Item # 5 Initiated Position in VHCOX (4/9/13 Post)
Dividend: Annual at a variable rate. I have been taking the dividend in cash for several years.
VHCOX Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Last Annual Dividend (Paid 12/24): $6.6936 per share
My Cash Dividend December 2024: $433.1
Prior Annual Dividends During Ownership:
Per Share
2023: $1.81
2022: $5.86
2021: $8.76
2020: $7.0
2019: $4.38
2018: $6.92
2017: $3.03
2016: $3.12
2015: $2.73
2014: $2.19
Cash Dividends Paid: I have been taking the dividend in cash for a long time.
2023 = $116.36
2022 = $376.65
2021 = $562.88
2020 = $449.61
2019 = $341.55
2018 = $540.21
Top 10 Holdings as of 12/31/24:
Prior Sell Discussions: Item # 1.B. Sold 2 VHCOX at $90.66 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $100.69); Item # 3.A. Pared VHCOX-Sold $500 at $71.62 and $500 at $73/02 (9/5/20 Post)(profit snapshot = $470.23); Item # 4 Sold 24+ VHCOX at $71.16 (1/21/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $562.11); Item # 6-Sold All VHCOX Shares Bought with Dividends (12/4/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $222.86): Item # 2.A. Sold 115+ VHCOX at $57.97 (3/1/2017 Post)(profit snapshot = $522.35)
VHCOX Realized Gains to Date: $2,364.82
E. Eliminated CTRA - Sold 6 at $28.16:
Proceeds: $168.96
CTRA is an exploration and production energy company with operations focused in the Permian Basin, Marcellus Shale, and Anadarko Basin.
CTRA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Website: Coterra Energy
CTRA SEC Filings
Profit Snapshot: $27.36
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 5.C. Restarted CTRA - Bought 5 at $23.81 (8/15/24 Post) I discussed the 2024 second quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Press Release
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 1.A. Eliminate CTRA - Sold 22+ at $25.6 (5/27/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $112.59); Item # 2.A. Eliminated CTRA in 2 Taxable Accounts- Sold 10 at $25.17 and 5 at $25.41 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $95.4) I eliminated my position in 2023 when natural gas prices had plummeted from unusually high 2021-2022 levels and the CTRA variable rate dividends would cease.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.21 per share (regular)
Coterra Energy - Dividend History
As shown in that link, CTRA paid out quarterly variable dividends in addition to its regular dividend starting in the 2021 4th quarter through the 2023 first quarter. Those dividend totalled $1.05 per share, rounded up. No variable dividend has been paid since the 2023 first quarter. I would not count on a resumption of dividends in excess of the regular dividend rate, at least until there is a robust and sustained recovery in natural gas prices from currently depressed levels.
There was a surge in natural gas prices in 2021 and 2022 that supported the variable dividend payments.
Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart | MacroTrends
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
E.P.S. $.34, down from $.43 in the 2023 4th quarter
Adjusted E.P.S. $.32
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation:
Free cash flow: $277M
Revenues: $1.359B
Production Volumes and Sales Prices (excluding hedges)
Average Sales Price including hedges:
Last Bond Offering (12/24): Prospectus
F. Eliminated Duplicate Position in QYLD Sold 40 at $18.59 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Global X NASDAQ-100 Covered Call ETF Overview Buy/Write ETF
Proceeds: $743.27
Sponsor's website: Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF
Profit Snapshot: $73.69
Last Discussed: Item # 2. Eliminate A Duplicate QYLD Position - Sold 30 at $17.97 .(3/15/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $62.03)
Last Buy Discussion: Item #2.D. Bought 5 QYLD at $17.01 - Fidelity Account (12/9/2023 Post)
Dividends: Monthly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 1/21/25 (owned as of)
NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF | Morningstar (currently rated 4 stars)
Remaining QYLD Position: 72+ shares in my Schwab account with an average cost per share at $16.64
 |
| QYLD Price as of 2/7/25 Close |
G. Eliminated Duplicate Position in RYLD - Sold 34+ at $16.65 (Fidelity Account):
Quote: Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF Overview Buy/Write ETF
Proceeds: $580.72
Profit Snapshot: +$45.47
Last Discussed: Item # 5.B. Bought 5 RYLD in Schwab Account at $15.5 (8/15/24 Post) I am keeping both RYLD and QYLD shares owned in my Schwab account. I am taking the dividends in cash.
Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF-Morningstar (currently rated 1 star)
Sponsor's website: Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD)
Dividends: Paid monthly at a variable rate
Last Ex Dividend: 1/21/25 (owned all as of)
I eliminated some of my higher cost shares in this account last year, recognizing a net profit of $48.33
H. Eliminated Remaining Duplicate Position in RYLD - Sold 40 at $16.65 (Vanguard Account):
See Item # 1.G. above.
Proceeds: $665.78
Profit Snapshot: $55.69
Remaining RYLD Position: 65+ shares in my Schwab account with an average cost per share at $15.31:
 |
| RYLD Price as of 2/7/25 Close |
I. Sold 1 MS at $136.78:
Quote: Morgan Stanley (MS)
Proceeds: $136.78
MS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Profit Snapshot: $61.8
Dividend: Quarterly at $.925 per share, last raised from $.85 effective for the 2024 third quarter payment.
The dividend was slashed to $.05 per share from $.27 effective for the 2009 second quarter which was kept in effect through the 2014 first quarter payment. The slash was related to the Near Depression events, and their aftermath.
Last Ex Dividend: 1/31/25
J. Pared SWZ - Sold 15 at $8.62:
Quote: Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc. Overview - Stock CEF that owns Swiss stocks.
I sold my highest cost shares using the specific identification method.
Proceeds: $129.3
Sponsor's website: Schroders | SWZ
SEC Filings
SEC Filing Holdings as of 9/30/24
Top 10 Holdings as of 1/31/25:
Profit Snapshot: $14.59
Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Added 5 SWZ at $7.56 (12/26/24 Post); Item # 2.B. Bought 10 SWZ at $7.8 (11/27/24 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 2.C. Sold 10 at $8.81 (10/10/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $11.15)
New Average Cost per share: $7.37 (102+ shares)
 |
| Snapshot at Closing Price 2/4/25 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $7.41. Dividend: Quarterly and managed based on a percentage of an annual rate equal to 6% of assets. A dividend will generally remain in effect for 3 or 4 quarters and then reset up or down based on changes in the fund's assets. The quarterly dividend was at $.129 per share for 4 quarters and was raised to $.1458 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment.
SWZ Dividend History | Nasdaq
Last Quarterly Dividend Per Share: $.1458 effective for the 2024 4th quarter payment ($.5832 annually), raised from $.129 effective for the 4 prior quarters.
Yield at $7.37 at $.1458 per quarter: 7.91%
Last Ex Dividend: 12/17/24
Data Date of 2/4/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset value per share: $9.58
Closing Market Price: $8.6
Discount: -10.23%
Average 3 year Discount: -14.71%
A relevant consideration for paring a CEF position is a current discount that is narrower than the average 3 year discount.
Sourced: SWZ - CEF Connect
K. Pared EXG in Schwab Account - Sold 15 at $8.5:
Quote: Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Overview (EXG) - Buy/Write CEF
Proceeds: $127.5
I sold the highest cost shares using the specific identification method.
Last Discussed: Item # 1.J. Added to EXG - Bought 10 at $7.42; 5 at $7.13 (10/21/23 Post)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 5.C. Eliminated Duplicate EXG Positions in 2 Taxable Accounts - Sold 15 at $7.65; 10 at $7.72 (4/29/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $21.65, contains profit snapshot of largest gain to date which was $414.31 in 2013).
EXG SEC Filings
SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y Ending 10/31/24: Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund
Sponsor's website: Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund (EXG) | Eaton Vance
Profit Snapshot: $21.99
New Average cost per share: $6.08 (138+ Shares)
 |
| Snapshot as of close on 2/4/25 after pare |
The AC was reduced from $6.18
Dividend: Monthly at $.0657 per share ($.7884 annually)
Yield at $6.08: 12.97%
Next Ex Dividend: 2/14/25
Date Date of 2/4/25 Trade:
Closing Net Asset Value Per Share: $9.27
Closing Market Price: $8.49
Discount: -8.41%
Average 3 Year Discount: -7.63%
Sourced: EXG - CEF Connect (Click "Pricing Information" Tab)
EXG Page at Morningstar (currently rated 3 stars)
L. Pared OBDC - Sold 10 at $15.05:
Quote: Blue Owl Capital Corp. (OBDC) - Externally Managed BDC
Proceeds: $150.46
OBDC changed its name and symbol from Owl Rock (ORCC).
Last Discussed: Item # 3.A. Eliminated Duplicate OBDC Position in Vanguard Account - Sold 30 at $13.78 (9/23/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $52); Item # 1.A. Eliminated ORCC in Schwab Taxable Account- Sold 26+ at $13.6 (3/6/23 Post)(profit snapshot = $40.68)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 3.F. Added to ORCC in Fidelity Taxable Account - Bought 5 at $11.14 (10/4/22 Post); Item L.-Bought 5 ORCC at $12.2 in Fidelity Taxable Account (6/22/22 Post); Item # 2.F. Added to ORCC-Bought 5 at $11.65 (11/13/20 Post);Item # 1.J. Added 4 ORCC at $12.02 (9/12/20 Post); Item # 4.E. Started ORCC-Bought 10 at $12.67; 1 at $12.59; 5 at $12.27 and 5 at $11.95 (6/27/2020 Post)
OBDC SEC Filings
2023 SEC Filed Annual Report (Summary of risk factors starts at page 33 and ends at page 72)
Profit Snapshot: +$22.96
New Average cost per share: $11.89 (30 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 2/6/25 after pare |
The AC per share was reduced from $12.11.
Regular Dividend: Quarterly at $.37 per share ($1.48)
Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Dividend History & Date | Seeking Alpha
Special Dividends: Since OBDC typically has 96+% in floating rate loans, priced at spreads to short term rates, net investment move higher in 2023-2024 as the FED increased the federal funds rate. Rather than increasing the regular dividend to fully reflect NII, OBDC elected to pay out $.70 per share in special dividends in those 2 years as noted below.
Per Share Total for Year
2024: $.24 (regular at $.37 per quarter)
2023: $.15 (regular at $.33, raised to $.35 in the 4th Q)
2022: $.03
2021: $.24 (regular at $.31 per quarter)
Yield at $11.89: 12.45% (regular dividend only)
Last Ex Dividend: 12/31/24 (paid 1/15/25)
Net Asset Value per share history:
9/30/24: $15.28
12/31/23: $15.45
6/30/23: $15.26
12/31/22: $14.99
12/31/21: $15.08
12/31/20: $14.74
12/31/19: $15.24
IPO: July 2019 at a public offering price of $15.5. Prospectus
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 9/30/24): SEC Filed Press Release
NII per share: $.47
"As of September 30, 2024, based on fair value, the portfolio consisted of 75.9% first lien senior secured debt investments, 5.4% second lien senior secured debt investments, 2.3% unsecured debt investments, 2.9% joint ventures, 2.9% preferred equity investments, and 10.6% common equity investments."
"As of September 30, 2024 and June 30, 2024, the weighted average total yield of accruing debt and income-producing securities at fair value (which includes interest income and amortization of fees and discounts) was 11.5% and 11.9%, respectively, and the weighted average total yield of accruing debt and income-producing securities at amortized cost (which includes interest income and amortization of fees and discounts) was 11.6% and 12.0%, respectively".
"As of September 30, 2024, loans on non-accrual represented 0.7% of the total fair value of the debt portfolio."
Debt investments at floating rates: 96.3%
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 (summary of investments starts at page 5)
The 2024 4th quarter earnings report is scheduled for release on 2/19.
Goal: Any total return in excess of the dividends received.
SU Bonds: All but two mature next month.
4 of the Blue Owl Credit Income 5.5% SU Maturing on 3/21/25-FINRA.org (a private BDC that has the same credit ratings as the bonds issued by the publicly traded ORCC)
6 of the Blue Owl 4% SU Maturing on 3/30/25- FINRA.org
2 of the Blue Owl 4.25% Maturing on 1/15/26-FINRA.org
2. Exchange Traded First Mortgage Bonds:
A. Added to EMP - Bought 5 at $21.5; 5 at $21.2 - Fidelity Account:
Quote: Entergy Mississippi LLC 4.9% First Mortgage Bond (EMP)
Cost: $213.5
Issuer: Operating utility wholly owned by Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Last Discussed: Item #8.A. Added to EMP - Bought 5 at $21.55 - Schwab Account (12/26/24 Post)
Exchange Traded: Trades like a common stock on the stock exchange rather than in the bond market.
Prospectus
First Mortgage Bond
Par Value: $25
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Maturity: 10/1/2066
No call protection. Issuer has the optional right to call at par value plus accrued and unpaid interest.
Interest Rate Risk: High given the potentially long maturity. Interest rate risk is asymmetric in favor of the issuer who has the optional call right. If interest rates fall too far, the issuer will call the bond, but will allow the owner to keep the security when interest rates are rising and the price is falling.
Credit Risk: Low IMO since the issuer is a regulated utility and the bond is a first lien on substantially all assets.
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire interest payment and no accrued interest is paid when purchased)
New average cost per share this account: $22.11 (80 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 2/3/25 after second add |
Yield at New AC = 5.54%
Calculation: .049% coupon x. $25 par value = $1.225 annual interest per share ÷ $22.11 average cost per share
Last Ex Interest Date: 12/13/24
Next Ex Interest Date: 3/31/25
Maximum Taxable Account Position: 300 shares, with 100 shares in each of three taxable accounts.
Current Position Taxable Accounts = 215 shares
Annual Interest on 215 Shares: $263.38
Some Sell Discussions: Item # 5.A. Pared EMP-Sold 5 at $26.84 (6/27/20 Post); Item # 4.A. Eliminated EMP-Sold 70 at $24.87 (5/1/19 Post)(largest gain snapshot = $207.92); Item # 2.B. Sold 30 EMP at $24.44 (2/13/19 Post); Item # 2.A. Sold 50 EMP at $24.47 (7/22/17 Post)
EMP Realized Gains to Date: $464.74
B. Bought 5 ELC at $21.25 - Fidelity Account:
Cost: $106.25
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Last Discussed: Item #7.A. Added 5 ELC in Vanguard Taxable Account at $21.15 (1/15/25 Post); Item # 7.A. Added to ELC in Fidelity Account - Bought 5 at $21.29 and Item #1.C. Added to ELC in Schwab Account - Bought 5 at $21.15 (1/1/25 Post)
Prospectus
Par Value: $25
Coupon: 4.875% paid on the $25 par value
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Security: First Mortgage on substantially all assets
My Videos: First Mortgage Bonds Traded Like Stocks - YouTube; First Mortgage Bonds $1,000 Par Values - YouTube
Call protection has expired.
Maturity: 9/1/2066 unless called earlier at issuer's option.
Interest Payments: Quarterly
Trades Flat (whoever owns the security on the ex interest date receives the entire quarterly interest payment, even if bought the day before that date)
Credit Ratings: A2/A
New Average Cost per share: $21.62 (80 shares)
 |
| Snapshot Intraday on 2/4/25 after add |
Yield at $21.62: 5.637%
Next Ex Interest Date: 2/28/25
Maximum Allowed Position in ELC Taxable Accounts: 300 shares (100 in each: Schwab, Vanguard and Fidelity)
Last Sell Discussion: Item # 4.A. Sold 30 of 60 ELC at $24.58 (2/27/19 Post)(profit snapshot = $20.22)
3. Corporate Bonds:
I will be discussing purchases of $42,000 in principal amount in my next post, which will be my last for at least several months. That will take me up to corporate bonds purchased through 2/7/24.
A. Bought 2 Healthcare Realty 3.75% SU Maturing on 7/1/27 at a Total Cost of 97.287 - Fidelity Account:
Issuer: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. (HR)
I own the common stock.
Last HR Discussion: Item # 1.I. Bought 3 HR at $16.24 (1/22/25 Post) I have a negative opinion about the management of this REIT as discussed in that post and many prior ones.
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 Debt is listed at page 17.
This bond was originally issued by Healthcare Trust of America. The name was change to Healthcare Realty as a result of this reverse merger. Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) and Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) Announce Closing of Merger - Healthcare Realty Healthcare Trust of America was the surviving company and then changed its name to Healthcare Reality.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.943%
Current Yield at TC = 3.855%
I now own 4 bonds.
B. Bought 2 Oneok 4.25% SU Bonds Maturing on 9/24/27 at a Total Cost of 98.598 - IB Account:
Issuer: ONEOK Inc. (OKE) - Energy Infrastructure
I have a small ball position in the common stock (8+ shares with an average cost per share of $21.44) The shares were bought in July and September 2020.
Last OKE Discussion: Item # 2.J. Sold 1 OKE at $111.71 (11/27/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $83.79)
OKE Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
OKE SEC Filings
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 9/30/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.814%
Current Yield at TC: 4.31%
C. Bought 2 MPLX LP 4.25% SU Maturing on 12/1/27 at a Total Cost of 98.467 - Fidelity Account:
Issuer: MPLX L.P. (MPLX) -Energy Infrastructure
MPLX SEC Filings
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
FINRA Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.83%
Current Yield at TC = 4.316%
I own 2 MPLX SU bonds that mature on 2/15/25 and 2 maturing on 6/1/25. I have now replaced the 2 that mature on 2/15.
D. Bought 2 Duke Energy 3.15% SU Maturing on 8/15/27 at a Total Cost of 96.109:
Issuer: Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) - Utility Holding Company
DUK is the 141st largest company in the U.S. as of 2024.
Operating utilities are located primarily in the Carolinas, Ohio, Florida, Indiana and Kentucky. Its natural gas utility Piedmont Natural Gas has operations in Tennessee including Nashville.
DUK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
DUK SEC Filings
10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.783%
Current Yield: 3.278%
E. Bought 1 GATX 3.25% SU Maturing on 9/15/26 at a Total Cost of $97.605:
Issuer: GATX Corp. (GATX) - Leases railcars, tank containers and aircraft engines
GATX Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.789%
Current Yield at TC = 3.33%
I now own 3 bonds.
I have 4 GATX SU bonds maturing on 3/30/25.
F. Bought 1 Entergy Louisiana 3.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/1/28 at a Total Cost of 95.538 - Vanguard Account:
Issuer: Wholly owned operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Entergy Corp. (ETR)
Prospectus
ETR SEC Filings
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: A2/A
YTM at Total Cost: 4.778%
Current Yield at TC: 3.402%
I discuss adding 5 shares of the Entergy Louisiana (ELC) exchange traded FM bond in Item #2.B. above.
G. Bought 1 Entergy Louisiana 3.25% First Mortgage Bond Maturing on 4/1/28 at a Total Cost of 95.709- Fidelity Account:
See Item # 3.F. aboveYTM at Total Cost: 4.727%
I now own 5 bonds which includes 1 in a Roth IRA account.
H. Bought 2 Interstate Power 4.1% SU Maturing on 9/26/28 at a Total Cost of 97.693:
Issuer: Operating subsidiary of the utility holding company Alliant Energy Corp. (LNT)
LNT 10-Q for the Q/E 9/30/24 The operating results of Interstate Power can be found starting at page 6.
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/A-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.795%
Current Yield at TC = 4.197%
I. Bought 2 Duke Energy 4.3% SU Maturing on 3/15/28 at a Total Cost of 98.796:
Issuer: See Item # 3.D. above
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB
YTM at Total Cost: 4.719%
Current Yield at TC: 4.352%
J. Bought 2 Willis North America 4.65% SU Maturing on 6/15/27 at a Total Cost of 99.667:
Prospectus
WTW SEC Filings
WTW SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
WTW Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB+
YTM at Total Cost: 4.799%
Current yield at TC: 4.666%
K. Bought 2 Discover Financial 4.1% SU Maturing on 2/9/27 at a Total Cost of 98.618:
Issuer: Discover Financial Services (DFS)
DFS Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
DFS SEC Filings
DFS SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24 (Net income of $1.291B)
Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) is in the process of acquiring DFS but it remains to be seen whether this acquisition will be completed. Capital One to Acquire Discover (2/19/24)
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa2/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.834%
Current Yield at TC = 4.158%
L. Bought 2 HCA 4.5% Bond Maturing on 2/15/27 at a Total Cost of 99.334 -Vanguard Account:
Issuer: Operating subsidiary for HCA Healthcare Inc. (HCA)
HCA Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
HCA SEC Filings
HCA SEC Filed Earnings Press Release for the Q/E 12/31/24
SEC Filed 2023 Annual Report
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa3/BBB-
YTM at Total Cost: 4.856%
Current Yield at TC: 4.53%
I now own 4 bonds.
Last Bond Offering (8/24): Prospectus
M. Bought 1 Ventas 4.125% SU Maturing on 1/15/26 at a Total Cost of 99.449 - Interactive Brokers Account:
Issuer: Operating entity for the REIT Ventas Inc. (VTR) who guarantees the notes.
Prospectus
VTR SEC Filings
SEC Filed Earnings Press for the Q/E 9/30/24
Finra Page: Bond Page | FINRA.org
Credit Ratings: Baa1/BBB+
YTM at TC = 4.734%
Current Yield at TC = 4.148%
I now own 4 bonds.
I had 5 Ventas SU bonds mature on 2/1/25.
4. Treasury Bills Purchased at Auction:
A. Bought 5 Treasury Bills at the 2/5/24 Auction:
119 Day Bill
Matures on 6/10/25
Interest: $69.5
Investment Rate: 4.323%
B. Bought 10 Treasury Bills at the 2/10/25 Auction:
3 month Treasury Bill Matures on 5/15/25
Interest: $106.8
Investment Rate: 4.33%
5. Small Ball Buys:
During my suspension of stock trading, I may average down infrequently by buying 1 or 2 shares of dividend paying stocks that are already in bear markets, provided the purchase is at the lowest price in the chain. I will not be discussing those trades until and unless I resume more regular stock trading.
A. Restarted SBSI - Bought 5 at $31.45; 5 at $30.98:
The snapshot includes my last elimination in this account, which was a 5 share lot sold at $37.51.
Quote: Southside Bancshares Inc. (SBSI)
Cost: $312.5
"Southside Bancshares, Inc. is a bank holding company with approximately $8.52 billion in assets as of December 31, 2024, that owns 100% of Southside Bank. Southside Bank currently has 53 branches in Texas."
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
SBSI Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
Last Discussed: Item # 3.F. Eliminated SBSI - Sold 5 at $37.51 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $55.21)
Last Buy Discussion: Item # 2.C. Restarted SBSI - Bought 5 at $26.46 (7/12/24 Post)
Average cost per share: $31.22 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.36 per share ($1.44 annually), last raised from $.35 effective for the 2024 first quarter payment.
Southside Bancshares, Inc. (SBSI) Dividend History | Seeking Alpha
Yield at $31.22: 4.61%
Next Ex Dividend: 2/20/25
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Press Release
Comparisons are to the 2023 third quarter.
Diluted E.P.S. = $.71, up from $.57
NIM: 2.83%, down from 2.99% and down from 2.95% in the 2024 3rd quarter.
The NIM trend down caused a selloff in response to this report.
Efficiency Ratio: 54%, up from 50.86%
Charge off ratio: .08%, down from .11% (excellent)
NPL Ratio: .07% (excellent)
NPA Ratio: .04% (excellent)
Coverage Ratio: 1,409.23%
ROE: 10.54%, up from 9.31%
ROTE: 14.12%, up from 13.1%
Tangible Book value per share: $20.05, up from $18.02
SBSI Realized Gains to Date: $646.14
Largest Gains - Over $90: Item # 2.F. Eliminated SBSI-Sold 25 at $30.03 (3/8/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $106.15); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 2 Sold 100 SBSI at $21.53 (6/28/12 Post)(profit snapshot = $97.05); Item # 3 Sold 107+ SBSI at $20.5 (7/18/11 Post)(profit snapshots = $208.69)
B. Added 5 AROW at $25.76:
Quote: Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW)
Cost: $128.8
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
AROW SEC Filings
Average cost per share: $26.46 (10 shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.28 per share ($1.12 annually)
AROW Dividend History & Date-Seeking Alpha
Yield at New AC = 4.23% (10 shares)
Last Ex Dividend: 2/10/25 (owned all as of)
Last Discussed: Item # 1.F. Restarted AROW - Bought 5 at $27.15 (1/22/25 Post) I discussed the 2024 third quarter report in that post. SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Press Release
GAAP E.P.S. = $.27
Non-GAAP E.P.S. = $.47
Non-Recurring Items- 2024 3rd and 4th Quarters:
The largest is a $3M loss on repositioning owned investment securities, meaning that low yielding securities were sold.
NIM: 2.85%, up from 2.55% in the 2023 third quarter.
Charge off ratio: .06%
NPL Ratio: .62%
NPA Ratio: .5%
Tangible Book Value per share: $22.4
Other numbers distorted by non-recurring expenses.
Sell Discussions: Item # 2.C. Eliminated AROW - Sold 25+ $30.11 (7/26/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $126.87); Item # 2.K. Eliminated AROW in Schwab Taxable Account - Sold 10 at $32.7 and Item # 2.L. Eliminated AROW in Vanguard Taxable Account-Sold 5 at $33.15 (2/5/23 Post)(profit snapshots = $121.87); Item # 1.C. Sold 15 AROW at $36.1 (2/10/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $16.99); Item # 1. Sold 52+ AROW at $37.5 (7/2/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $661.34); Item # 5.A. Sold 100 AROW at $34.7 (4/23/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $62.04)
AROW Realized Gains to Date: $1,012.17
C. Added 10 HTBK at $9.68:
Quote: Heritage Commerce Corp. (HTBK)
Cost: $96.8
HTBK "is the parent company of Heritage Bank of Commerce, established in 1994 and headquartered in San Jose, CA with full-service branches in Danville, Fremont, Gilroy, Hollister, Livermore, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill, Oakland, Palo Alto, Pleasanton, Redwood City, San Francisco, San Jose, San Mateo, San Rafael, and Walnut Creek."
HTBK Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
HTBK SEC Filings
2023 SEC Filed Annual Report (addresses of bank locations at page 57)
Investment Category: Regional Bank Basket Strategy
Last Discussed: Item # 3.C. Eliminated 1 of 2 Duplicate Position in HTBK - Sold 70 Shares at $10.7 and Item 3.D. Eliminated Remaining Duplicate Position in HTBK - Sold 78+ at $10.55 (11/14/24 Post)(profit snapshots = $220.68); Item # 4.J. Pared Duplicate HTBK Position - Sold 5+ at $10.11 (8/29/24 Post)(profit snapshot = $7.58)
Last Buy Discussions: Item # 1.H. Added to HTBK in Vanguard Account - Bought 5 at $8.57 - Vanguard Account (12/2/23 Post); Item # 3.B. Added 5 HTBK at $6.9 - Vanguard Account (5/13/23 Post); Item # 2.A. Added 5 HTBK at $7.92 - Vanguard Account (4/22/23 Post)
Average cost per share: $9.13 (47+ shares)
Dividend: Quarterly at $.13 per share ($.52 annually)
HTBK Stock Dividend History & Date
Yield at $9.13 AC = 5.6955%
Last Ex Dividend: 2/6/25 (owned all as of)
Last Earnings Report (Q/E 12/31/24): SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
The primary reasons for adding 10 shares are the dividend yield, an increase in the net interest margin to 3.34% from 3.17% in 2024 3rd quarter, and a continuation of excellent loan credit metrics (Charge off, NPL, NPA ratios) Other performance data remains unappealing (e.g. ROE, ROA, Efficiency Ratios)
Comparisons are to the 2023 4th Q.
E.P.S. $.17, down from $.22
NIM 3.34%, down from 3.41% but moving higher quarter-to-quarter
"Net interest income increased 11% to $44.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to $39.9 million for the third quarter of 2024."
NPL Ratio: .22%
NPA Ratio: .14%
Coverage Ratio: 638.39% (existing allowance for credit losses as a percentage of non-performing loans)
Net Charge-offs: $197,000 out of $3.39+B in loans
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio: 72.45%
Tangible Book Value per share: $8.41, up from $8.12
Unsatisfactory Ratios IMO:
Efficiency Ratio: 65.35%
ROE: 6.16%
ROTE: 8.25%
ROA: .75%
HTBK Realized Gains to Date: $256.05
D. Added 2 CPB at $37.29:
Quote: Campbell's Co. (CPB)
Cost: $74.58
CPB recently changed its name from Campbell's Soup.
CPB Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
CPB SEC Filings
CPB SEC Filed Annual Report for the F/Y ending on 7/28/24
New Average cost per share: $39.87 (15+ shares):
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| Snapshot Intraday on 2/5/25 after add |
Dividend: Quarterly at $.39 per share ($1.56 annually)
CPB Dividend History | Nasdaq
I am reinvesting the dividend.
Yield at $39.87: 3.91%
Last Ex Dividend: 1/2/25
Last Discussed: Item # 2.D. Added to 2 CPB at $38.5; 2 at $37.9 (1/15/25 Post)
Last Earnings Report (F/Q 10/27/24): I discussed the report here: Item #1.B Restarted CPB - Bought 2 at $42.71 (12/12/24 Post); SEC Filed Press Release This was the first fiscal quarter.
Maximum Position: 30 shares
Purchase Restriction: Each subsequent purchase must be at the lowest price in the chain. Purchase lots will be 1 or 2 shares.
Sell Discussions: Item # 1.I. Eliminated CPB - Sold 5 at $49.86 (5/19/22 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.29) Item 3.B. Sold 5 CPB at $41.07 (8/26/18 Post)(profit snapshot $38.97); Item # 3 Sold 50 CPB at $41 (8/5/18 Post)(profit snapshot = $117.18); Item # 3 Sold 50+ CPB at $49.73+(11/20/17 Post)(profit snapshot = $43.21); Item # 3 Sold 70 CPB at $35.79 (9/8/2010 Post)(profit snapshot = $714.84)
CPB Realized Gains to Date: $914.13
Enthusiasm Level: Vaguely observable but intermittently present.
E. Added 5 KHC at $28.45:
Quote: Kraft Heinz Co.
Cost: $142.25
KHC Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
KHC SEC Filings
Brands
New Average cost per share: $31.44 (65+ shares)
The AC was reduced from $31.68.
During my suspension of stock trading, I may buy infrequently 1 or 2 shares provided the price is the lowest price in the chain.
Dividend: Quarterly at $.40 per share
KHC Dividend History & Date
Yield at $31.44 AC per share: 5.09%
Yield at $28.45: 5.62%
Last Ex Dividend: 11/29/24
Last Discussed: Item # 2.E. Bought 2 KHC at $29.2; 3 at $28.69 (1/15/25 Post)
Last Earnings Report (F/Q ending 9/28/24): I discussed that report in this post: Item # 2.C. Added to KHC - Bought 10 at $31 (11/27/24 Post); SEC Filed Earnings Press Release
The next earnings report is scheduled to be released on 2/12. The consensus E.P.S. estimate is currently at $.778 and that would be a non-GAAP number. I noted that Mizuho Bank downgraded KHC today to neutral from outperform and reduced its PT to $31 from $38.
Last Sell Discussions: Item # 2.I. Eliminated Duplicate Position in KHC - Sold 6 at $35.48 - Fidelity Account (8/8/24 Post); Item # 2.E. Pared KHC - Sold 6 at $38.34 - Schwab Account (1/12/24 Post)
The merger of Kraft with H.J. Heinz has proven to be a loser.
My largest gain in Kraft shares occurred when the company was known as Kraft Foods, Inc. The company spun out in 2012 the U.S. grocery business called Kraft Foods Group. Then Kraft Foods, Inc. changed its name to Mondelez International (MDLZ). While I sold Kraft Foods Inc. shares in 2009, Fidelity now has the trade listed as Mondelez:
 |
| 2009 MDLZ +$570.47 |
Spin-Off Information | Mondelēz International, Inc. (2012)
The Kraft Foods Group, the spin off company, later merged with H.J. Heinz 0n 7/2/2015 and changed its name to Kraft Heinz.
Average Annual Total Return of KHC Starting 7/6/2015 through 2/7/25: -5.11%
This is clearly a failed merger. A $10,000 investment, made on 7/6/2015 and with dividends reinvested, was worth $6,564.33 as if 2/7/25
Sourced: DRIP Returns Calculator | Dividend Channel
One recurring theme in empire building is that the end result is a destruction of a value, not its creation.
6. Canadian Reset Equity Preferred Stocks:
A. Sold 50 of 250 TRP.PRD:CA at C$21.38:
Quote: TRP-PD.TO Proceeds: C$1,068 after C$1 commission.
Issuer: TC Energy Corp. (TRP), formerly known as TransCanada.
TRP Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
I own the USD priced common stock.
TRP Last Discussed: Item # 2.I. Pared TRP Sold 3 at $49.91 (11/27/24 Post). I currently own 25 shares. This sale lowered my average cost per share to $34.53.
Prospectuses for TRP preferred stocks: TC Energy — Stock Information
Par Value: C$25
Coupon: 2.38% spread to the 5 year Canadian government bond, resets every 5 years. Canada 5 Year Government Bond Overview | MarketWatch
Last Reset Period: Starts on 4/30/24 and ends on 4/29/29. The calculation date for the reset coupon will be the 30th day prior to the first day of the reset period.
Last Reset Coupon: 5.985%
TC Energy provides conversion right and dividend rate notice for Series 7 and 8 preferred shares TRPPRD is the series 7 preferred stock.
Callable at par: Only on reset dates
Dividends: Paid quarterly and cumulative
Last Discussed: Item # 5.A. Added 50 TRPPRD:CA at C$14.9 (9/30/23 Post) The C$1 commission for this 50 share lot increased the cost basis to C$14.92 per share
Lowest Price Paid: Item # 3.A. Bought 50 TRPPRD at C$13 (7/3/20 Post)
Lots Prior to Pare:
I sold the 50 shares that had a C$16.11 cost basis.
Profit Snapshot: +C$262.5
New Average cost per share: C$14.79
 |
| Snapshot as of Close 2/5/25 after pare |
The AC was reduced from C$15.05.
Current Yield at C$14.79 = 10.12%
Calculation: .05985% coupon x. C$25 par value = C$1.49625 annual dividend per share ÷ C$14.79 average cost per share = 10.1166%
I also own 250 shares of TRP.PRE:CA with an average cost of C$14.47 per share. Item #5.A. Bought 100 TRPPRE at C$15 and 50 at C$11.12 (3/20/20 Post); Item # 2 Bought 100 TRPPRE at C$15.6 (9/29/20 Post)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but simply an individual investor who has been managing my own money since I was a teenager. In this post, I am acting solely as a financial journalist focusing on my own investments. The information contained in this post is not intended to be a complete description or summary of all available data relevant to making an investment decision. Instead, I am merely expressing some of the reasons underlying the purchase or sale of securities. Nothing in this post is intended to constitute investment or legal advice or a recommendation to buy or to sell. All investors need to perform their own due diligence before making any financial decision which requires at a minimum reading original source material available at the SEC and elsewhere. A failure to perform due diligence only increases what I call "error creep". Stocks, Bonds & Politics: ERROR CREEP and the INVESTING PROCESS Each investor needs to assess a potential investment taking into account their personal risk tolerances, goals, and situational risks. I can only make that kind of assessment for myself and my family members.
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